Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

June 9, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries and the Massachusetts Democratic Party picks primary candidates

Primary results roundup

California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota held primaries on Tuesday.

The big stories of the night: Franken defeats Finkenauer, Caruso and Bass in runoff

U.S. Senate election in Iowa: Michael Franken defeated Abby Finkenauer and Glenn Hurst. As of Wednesday morning, Franken led Finkenauer, 55% to 40%.

Franken is a retired U.S. Navy admiral whose policy priorities include lowering the eligibility age for Medicare to 50. Franken says he appeals to “that middle segment who want logical, pragmatic, smart, dedicated, national servants to work for them.” Franken unsuccessfully sought the state’s Democratic Senate nomination in 2020. 

Finkenauer, who served in the U.S. House from 2019 to 2021, campaigned on her support for term limits in Congress and what she called a record of bipartisanship. 

Franken will face Sen. Chuck Grassley (R). Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican. 

Mayoral election in Los Angeles: Karen Bass and Rick Caruso advanced to a runoff as no candidate received more than 50% of the vote. As of Wednesday morning, Caruso had 42% to Bass’ 37%.

Though the election was officially nonpartisan, both candidates are registered Democrats. Caruso, a real estate developer and former president of the Los Angeles Police Commission, said he changed his party registration from no party preference to Democrat in January 2022. Bass has held elected office as a Democrat since 2005 and has served in the U.S. House since 2011.

The New York Times‘ Jennifer Medina wrote that the race is “poised to become a test of whether voters this year favor an experienced politician who has spent nearly two decades in government or an outsider running on his business credentials.”

Other marquee primary results

California’s 27th:  Incumbent Mike Garcia (R) and Christy Smith (D) advanced from a seven-candidate, top-two primary. Garcia had 50% of the vote and Smith had 35% as of Wednesday morning. 

In 2020, Garcia defeated Smith in the general election by 333 votes, making it the third-closest U.S. House race that year. Brianna Lee of LAist said the 2022 race should be more competitive because redistricting “jettisoned the district’s most conservative outpost in Simi Valley, giving Democratic voters even more of an edge.”

California Attorney General: Incumbent Rob Bonta (D) is likely to advance from the top-two primary. Who will join him in the general is TBD. Bonta had 55% of the vote as of Wednesday morning. Republicans Nathan Hochman and Eric Early had 19% and 17%, respectively, and independent Anne Marie Schubert had 8%.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least 13 state legislators—two Democrats and 11 Republicans—lost in primaries on June 7. Including those results, 91 state legislative incumbents have lost primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 58 primaries featuring 59 incumbents remain uncalled.

Across the 17 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 5.3% of incumbents running for re-election have lost. 

Ninety-one primary defeats and a 5.3% loss rate are the largest number and highest incumbent loss rate in these 17 states since 2014.

Of the 17 states that have held primaries so far, three had Democratic trifectas, 11 had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 17 states, there are 2,189 seats up for election, 36% of the nationwide total this year.

Media analysis

Politico‘s Ally Mutnick and Jeremy White wrote about how the issue of crime played out in several California races:

San Francisco voters ousted incumbent District Attorney Chesa Boudin before he completed a full term — a ringing repudiation of a broader criminal justice reform movement.

…

Meanwhile, the fact that Los Angeles’ mayoral contest is as competitive as it is testifies to a fraught public mood — as well as the power of a well-funded campaign.

Democratic Rep. Karen Bass and ex-Republican magnate Rick Caruso are neck and neck in the vote count so far, with Caruso making his mark on the race by spending millions of dollars to amplify his message of tackling crime and homelessness. Polls have shown Angelenos feel markedly more pessimistic about the status quo on both issues.

And statewide, California Attorney General Rob Bonta’s bid for a full term will also test whether anxiety about public safety has voters ready to reevaluate their embrace of criminal justice reform. Bonta has been a champion in that movement, backing policies like lesser sentencing and bans on cash bail and for-profit prisons. But polls show Californians are feeling markedly more concerned about crime — a dynamic Bonta’s opponents are trying to exploit.

The outcome will also show whether an unaffiliated candidate can break through. Sacramento District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert, a Republican-turned-independent, could be Bonta’s toughest opponent in November but early returns had Schubert far behind Republicans Nathan Hochman and Eric Early.

The Associated Press‘ Thomas Beaumont wrote that Franken’s defeat of Finkenauer in Iowa was a surprise: 

Franken’s primary win is something of a surprise, given Finkenauer was better known throughout the state after her 2018 victory over a Republican congressman that made her the second-youngest woman elected to Congress. Finkenauer lost in a reelection bid in 2020 but was a frequent presence on cable television and raised millions of dollars toward her Senate run.

But Franken campaigned in more than 50 of Iowa’s 99 counties, touting his upbringing in rural, northwest Iowa where Democrats have all but vanished from public office. And yet Franken beat Finkenauer soundly in the state’s most populous areas including the Des Moines metro area, as well as in the liberal bastion of Iowa City, next door to Finkenauer’s eastern Iowa base.

…

Franken will nonetheless face stiff headwinds going into the general election against Grassley, who has served seven terms. A state that Democrat Barack Obama won in two presidential elections has steadily shifted to the right in recent years, part of a broader transformation that has spread through the Northern Plains that has made it increasingly difficult for Democrats to compete statewide.

…

… Finkenauer’s campaign faced an unexpected stumble in April when she nearly didn’t make the primary ballot. Republican activists claimed she hadn’t gathered enough signatures from enough counties. A district judge ruled Finkenauer hadn’t qualified for the ballot, a ruling she called “deeply partisan.” The Iowa Supreme Court overruled that decision and allowed her to run.

Still, the episode turned off a number of veteran state Democratic activists, former candidates and officeholders, prompting some to give Franken a second look. He posted stronger first-quarter fundraising figures than Finkenauer and earned endorsements from some well-known former Finkenauer supporters bothered by her declining to accept responsibility for the filing mistakes.

The first-ever top-four congressional primary is on Saturday

Alaska will conduct the first top-four congressional primary in U.S. history on June 11—a special U.S. House primary election held in the wake of former Rep. Don Young’s (R) death. 

The special general election will be on Aug. 16, the same day as the regular primary election. The special election winner will serve until Jan. 2023, when the regular election winner—if someone different—will take office for a full two-year term.

Forty-eight candidates are on the special election ballot. The regular primary features 31 candidates, including 24 who are also running in the special election. All primary candidates for each election run on the same ballot with their affiliation listed next to their names. On the special primary ballot are:

• 22 candidates running as nonpartisan or undeclared 
• 16 Republicans
• 6 Democrats
• 2 Libertarians
• 1 American Independent Party member
• 1 Alaskan Independence Party member

Here’s the sample ballot from the Alaska Division of Elections:

As we wrote last month, an Alaska Survey Research poll found former governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Al Gross (I) in the top three spots. A cluster of independents, Democrats, and Republicans were tied within the margin of error for fourth. 

The New York Times‘ Emily Cochrane wrote, “Most observers here believe that Mr. Young’s seat is likely to remain in Republican hands given the state’s conservative slant, but the new ranked-choice system, which tends to advantage candidates in the center, could upend the conventional wisdom.”

Young was first elected Alaska’s U.S. representative in 1973, when he defeated Emil Notti (D) in a special election. Notti is running in the 2022 special primary election. Young also ran for the House in 1972, when Nick Begich Sr. (D) defeated him. Begich Sr. is Begich III’s grandfather.

Alaska voters approved the top-four primary/ranked-choice voting general election system via ballot measure in 2020. Maine is the only other state that uses ranked-choice voting for federal and state-level elections, though several other states have jurisdictions that use the voting system. Learn more here.

Working Families Party backs Nadler over Maloney in NY-12

The Working Families Party (WFP) of New York endorsed Rep. Jerry Nadler over Rep. Carolyn Maloney in New York’s 12th Congressional District. 

We wrote in March that the WFP endorsed Rana Abdelhamid over Maloney in the 12th. That was before a special master redrew the state’s congressional district map, resulting in Nadler and Maloney running in the same district and Abdelhamid withdrawing from the race.

New York uses fusion voting. More than one political party can support the same candidate, and that candidate appears on the same ballot multiple times under different party lines (for example, the Democratic Party and the Working Families Party).

Both Nadler and Maloney are campaigning as progressives and are members of the House Progressive Caucus.

In other New York endorsement news, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) endorsed state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi against Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in New York’s 17th. 

The primaries are Aug. 23.

Massachusetts Democratic Party convention determines party endorsements and ballot access

At the June 4 Massachusetts Democratic Party convention, delegates chose primary candidates and party endorsees. Attorney General Maura Healey advanced to the gubernatorial primary with 71% of the delegate vote. Because she received more than 50% of the vote, Healey also won the party’s endorsement. State Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz received 29% of the vote, surpassing the 15% threshold to advance to the Sept. 6 primary.

Boston NAACP President Tanisha Sullivan won the party’s endorsement for secretary of state over seven-term incumbent William Galvin, 62% to 38%. Galvin didn’t receive the party’s endorsement during his last re-election bid in 2018. He won that primary with 68%.

In the lieutenant gubernatorial race, three candidates qualified for the primary: Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll with 41% of the vote, state Rep. Tami Gouveia with 23%, and state Sen. Eric Lesser with 21%. 

Politico’s Lisa Kashinsky wrote, “Lesser and Galvin’s flush coffers will help them get on the airwaves and reach more voters as their primaries move beyond party activists. But they could lose that edge if their rivals are able to build more financial support following the convention.”

For attorney general, former state Assistant Attorney General Quentin Palfrey won the party’s endorsement and will face former Boston City Councilwoman Andrea Campbell and labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan in September. 

Former Assistant Secretary of Transportation Chris Dempsey won the endorsement for state auditor with 53% of the vote, setting up a two-way primary with state Sen. Diana DiZoglio, who received 47%.

Political consultant Anthony Cignoli told MassLive’s Jim Kinney, “Convention delegates are a specific universe of activists who don’t always represent the voters who ultimately decide the actual September primary. A larger group of Democrats with broader views and issues important to them will be the decision-makers then, not to mention the unenrolled and independent voters who get to weigh in.” 

Massachusetts holds semi-closed primaries, meaning voters who are unaffiliated can vote in the primary of their choice.

Percentage of each congressional caucus not seeking re-election

Fifty-five members of Congress are not running for re-election this year, including 32 Democrats and 23 Republicans. For Democrats, this is the largest percentage of the party’s House and Senate caucuses to retire in one cycle—11.9%—since 2014. For Republicans, this represents 8.8% of the party’s caucuses.

The highest recent percentage of Republicans retiring was in 2018, when 12.6% of the party’s caucus—37 members—didn’t run for re-election. That year, Republicans gained two Senate seats and lost 35 House districts.

The lowest recent percentage of Democrats retiring was in 2020, when 10 members—3.6% of the caucus—didn’t run. Democrats gained three Senate seats and lost 10 House districts. 

The lowest recent percentage of Republican congressional retirements was in 2016. Twenty-six Republicans retired—8.6% of the caucus. Republicans lost two Senate seats and five House districts.

Competitiveness data: Maine and North Dakota

Maine and North Dakota hold primaries on June 14. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Maine

North Dakota

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

June 2, 2022

In this issue: A new PAC plans to spend for a challenger to Rep. Tlaib and the first polls in NY’s new House districts

New PAC will spend $1 million supporting Tlaib challenger

The recently formed Urban Empowerment Action PAC plans to spend more than $1 million on ads supporting Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey in Michigan’s 12th Congressional District Democratic primary. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D), who currently represents the 13th District, is seeking re-election in the 12th. Tlaib represents 61% of the new 12th’s population. 

The PAC says its supporters “include a broad coalition of African American business, political and civic leaders, working alongside peers in the Jewish community” and that it is “dedicated to empowering urban communities to narrow the wealth gap between Black and white Americans.”

Former South Carolina state Rep. Bakari Sellers, who has raised money for the PAC, told Politico, “Congresswoman Tlaib voted against the infrastructure bill. Coming from South Carolina, I can tell you that I understand in our communities, that the return on that investment is so high. And we want someone, particularly in these Black communities, that does not get distracted by shiny things or media opportunities, but is focused on the uplift of our communities and does right by them.”

Tlaib was one of six House Democrats to vote against the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Tlaib said she did so because the House voted on it before the Build Back Better Act: “It was a promise that was made to move both bills together, because much of some of the poison pills in the infrastructure bill that increased dirty air issues around climate and some of the other privatization and fossil fuel language was combatted in Build Back Better.” Tlaib also said the infrastructure bill was Democrats’ leverage for passing Build Back Better.

Sellers also said Tlaib’s comments on Israel are “high up on the list” of reasons the PAC is supporting Winfrey. As we wrote in January, Tlaib voted against funding for Israel’s Iron Dome defense system in September 2021, saying, “I will not support an effort to enable and support war crimes, human rights abuses and violence. The Israeli government is an apartheid regime.” 

We discussed primary challenger and state Rep. Shanelle Jackson’s criticisms of Tlaib’s stance on Israel in that issue.

Tlaib spokesperson Denzel McCampbell said of the PAC’s support for Winfrey, “If our opponent truly does care about our democracy, I hope that she will immediately disavow and condemn this type of Big Money attack on our democracy that only seeks to mislead voters and distort reality.”

Retweeting a story about the PAC’s involvement in the primary, Winfrey wrote, “I’m so grateful and excited to serve the ENTIRE 12th District.”

The primary is on Aug. 2.

Updates on OR-05, TX-28, TX-15 House races

Some updates on where previously uncalled marquee primaries stand:

In Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, Jamie McLeod-Skinner defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader 57%-43%. The primary was May 17, and we called the race Tuesday.

Schrader joins three other representatives who’ve sought re-election and lost in primaries this year, including one other Democrat. In Georgia’s 7th District primary, Rep. Lucy McBath defeated fellow incumbent Carolyn Bourdeaux 63%-31%.

In Texas’ 28th District, incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar led Jessica Cisneros by 175 votes as of Wednesday afternoon. Texas’ 15th District primary also remains uncalled. Michelle Vallejo led Ruben Ramirez by 20 votes.

In Texas, a candidate may request a recount if the margin of victory is within 10% of the winning candidate’s vote total. The local canvass in Texas is today, meaning vote counting will be complete. 

First polls released in NY U.S. House primaries

Last week, Emerson College released polls for New York’s 10th and 12th congressional districts. As we wrote last week, a special master redrew the state’s congressional districts, and a state court approved the new map on May 20. 

In the 10th District, the poll found 77% of respondents undecided. U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones (currently of the 17th District) received 7% support, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio had 6%, state Asm. Yuh-Line Niou had 5%, and New York City Councilmember Carlina Rivera had 3%. 

Former U.S. Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman, who served from 1973 to 1981, has also announced a bid for the 10th.

In the 12th District, U.S. Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler are running against each other. Maloney led Nadler 31% to 21% in the poll, with 36% of respondents undecided. Both representatives were first elected in 1992. Maloney chairs the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Nadler chairs the Judiciary Committee.

Both polls had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. 

To see the state’s new congressional district map, click here.

Ocasio-Cortez endorses slate of Democratic Socialist state legislative candidates

On May 26, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) endorsed all 13 state legislative candidates that the New York City Democratic Socialists of America (NYC-DSA) endorsed. This is the largest slate of candidates the NYC-DSA has ever endorsed. 

Jacobin’s Liza Featherstone wrote that the NYC-DSA’s “thirteen-person slate is ambitious; some have argued that the group may be biting off more than it can chew in terms of street-level organization. But AOC’s endorsement is likely to bring significant resources to the campaigns, including grassroots dollars, volunteers, and media attention.”

The 13 endorsed candidates are listed below.

Assembly

• Phara Souffrant Forrest (incumbent)
• Emily Gallagher (incumbent)
• Zohran Kwame Mamdani (incumbent)
• Marcela Mitaynes (incumbent)
• Illapa Sairitupac (challenger, GOP incumbent)
• Keron Alleyne (challenger, Democratic incumbent)
• Samy Nemir Olivares (challenger, Democratic incumbent)
• Vanessa Agudelo (open district)
• Sarahana Shrestha (challenger, Democratic incumbent)

Senate (due to recently approved district maps, the filing deadline for these races is June 10)

• Jabari Brisport (incumbent)
• Julia Salazar (incumbent)
• Kristen Gonzalez (SD-59)
• David Alexis (SD-21)

In the 2018 primary elections, both candidates the NYC-DSA endorsed won their elections, including Ocasio-Cortez. In 2020, the organization endorsed four candidates: Brisport, Forrest, Mamdani, and Mitaynes. All four candidates won.

New York State Assembly primaries are on June 28. Primaries for state Senate are on Aug. 23. All 63 state Senate seats and all 150 Assembly districts are up for election. Democrats hold majorities in both chambers.

The Democratic Socialists of America says it is “the largest socialist organization in the United States, with over 92,000 members and chapters in all 50 states” and believes that “working people should run both the economy and society democratically to meet human needs, not to make profits for a few.”

Associated Press analysis: High number of 2020 Democratic primary voters participated in 2022 GOP primaries

An Associated Press analysis of early voting data published Tuesday showed that 37,144 people who voted in Georgia’s May 24 Republican primaries voted in Democratic primaries in 2020. AP called this “an unusually high number of so-called crossover voters.”

Georgia holds open primaries, meaning voters may vote in whichever primary they choose, regardless of their registration (voters may only participate in one party’s primary in each election year).

The analysis said these voters supported incumbents Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), both of whom won primaries over challengers former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed. Kemp received 74% of the vote, avoiding a runoff by more than 280,000 votes. Raffensperger avoided a runoff by around 27,000 votes.

The Associated Press wrote that Country First, a political action committee that Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) created, conducted a mailer and text campaign encouraging Georgia Democrats to support Raffensperger. 

Kinzinger, who is not seeking re-election this year, was one of 10 House Republicans who voted for Trump’s 2021 impeachment. The Republican National Committee censured Kinzinger in February for his participation in the House select committee investigating the U.S. Capitol breach.

Raffensperger’s campaign said that “there are people who stopped voting in Republican primaries after 2016 who are now reengaged.” 

AP said that “at least a portion of Georgia’s 37,000 party switchers in 2022 had been in the Republican camp before Trump took office. Roughly between 9,000 to 13,000 voted Republican in the 2010, 2012 and 2014 primaries, according to the L2 data.”

Country First also weighed in on North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District primary, where Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) lost re-nomination by fewer than 1,500 votes. AP wrote that of the 38,000 early and absentee votes in that primary, more than 14% (5,400) were from voters who had participated in the 2020 Democratic primary.

AP found that fewer 2020 Democratic voters participated in the GOP primary in Pennsylvania this year, attributing the gap to the competitive Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and to the state’s closed primary system. 

Primary rules vary by state and, in some cases, by political party. Twenty-one states have open primaries. 

Another 15 states have at least one political party that runs semi-closed primaries, meaning that members of that party and registered voters who are not members of any party may participate. In 11 states (including Pennsylvania) and the District of Columbia, parties run closed primaries, meaning only registered party members may participate.

Competitiveness data: New Mexico and South Carolina

New Mexico holds primaries on June 7, and South Carolina holds primaries on Jun 14. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

New Mexico

South Carolina

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

May 26, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries and a look at New York’s overhauled primary landscape

Primary results roundup

Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia held their primaries on Tuesday. Texas also held primary runoffs for races in which no candidate received a majority of the vote on March 1. 

The big stories of the night: Cuellar-Cisneros matchup TBD, McBath defeats Bourdeaux in GA-07

Texas’ 28th runoff: The primary runoff between incumbent Henry Cuellar and Jessica Cisneros is too close to call. Cuellar led 50.2%-49.8%, with fewer than 200 votes separating the candidates. Mailed ballots postmarked by Tuesday and received by 5 p.m. Wednesday could be counted.

Under state law, candidates may request a recount if the margin of victory is less than 10% of the winning candidate’s vote total. That’d be a little more than 2,200 votes for this race, based on results as of Thursday morning. Candidates must request a recount within five days after election day or two days after the canvass. 

Cuellar’s backers included House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) were among Cisneros’ endorsers. The San Antonio Express-News editorial board, which backed Cuellar in the 2020 primary, endorsed Cisneros this year.

Georgia’s 7th: Rep. Lucy McBath defeated Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux and Donna McLeod. McBath received 63% of the vote, Bourdeaux was second with 31%, and McLeod was third with 6%. Bourdeaux and McBath ran in the same primary due to redistricting. There will be no runoff because McBath won more than 50% of the vote. 

Bourdeaux is the third U.S. House incumbent who sought re-election to be defeated in a primary this year and the first Democrat.

Bloomberg Government data showed that Bourdeaux represents 57% of the residents in the new 7th District and McBath represents 12%. This is one of six incumbent-vs.-incumbent primaries this year and one of four featuring two Democrats.

McBath, whose son was fatally shot in 2012, emphasized gun policy in her campaign. At a recent debate, McBath said, “I’m running in this race because I simply believe that we should not allow Gov. Kemp, the Republican Party or the NRA gun lobby to dictate who represents our communities in Washington.”

Bourdeaux’s campaign website said she “has been a leading advocate in Congress for health care, voting rights, racial and social justice, small business, infrastructure, and critical issues of broad importance to Gwinnett County and the 7th district community.”

Atlanta magazine’s Rachel Garbus said, “While both candidates are thoroughgoing Democrats, McBath is further to the left than Bourdeaux, whose centrist stance has alienated some progressives.”

In one of our first issues of 2022’s The Heart of the Primaries, we wrote about how Bourdeaux joined a group of nine House Democrats last summer in saying she wouldn’t vote for a budget resolution needed to pass the Build Back Better agenda unless the House first voted on an infrastructure bill the Senate passed. Ultimately, Bourdeaux voted for the resolution, which contained a nonbinding commitment to vote on the infrastructure bill by late September. 

McBath had endorsements from U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), U.S. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), and the Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund. Bourdeaux received endorsements from former Atlanta mayor Andrew Young (D), former U.S. Sen Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), and four state representatives. 

McBath defeated incumbent Karen Handel (R) in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District in 2018, 50.5% to 49.5%. McBath won a rematch against Handel in 2020, 55% to 45%. Bourdeaux defeated Rich McCormick (R) 51% to 49% to win an open-seat race in the 7th District in 2020. Bourdeaux lost to then-incumbent Rob Woodall (R) in 2018 by 433 votes. That was the closest U.S. House election by number of votes in 2018. 

Election forecasters rate the general election in Georgia’s 7th as Solid or Safe Democratic.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

• Texas’ 15th runoff: The race was too close to call as of Thursday morning. Ruben Ramirez had 50.1% of the vote and Michelle Vallejo had 49.9%. Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) ran for re-election in District 34. Three forecasters rate the general election Lean or Tilt Republican.
• Texas’ 30th runoff: Jasmine Crockett defeated Jane Hamilton 61% to 39%. Incumbent Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) did not seek re-election. Johnson endorsed Crockett. U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey (D) endorsed Hamilton. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Democratic.

State executives

• Texas Attorney General runoff: Rochelle Garza defeated Joe Jaworksi 63% to 37%. Garza will face incumbent Ken Paxton (R) in the general election on Nov. 8.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday afternoon. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least four state legislators—all Republicans—lost in primaries on May 24. Including those defeats, 61 state legislative incumbents have lost primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 64 primaries featuring incumbents remain uncalled.

Across the 12 states that have held state legislative primaries, 4.5% of incumbents running for re-election have lost. 

Sixty-one primary defeats and a 4.5% loss rate are the largest number and highest incumbent loss rate in these 12 states since 2014.

Of the 12 states that have held primaries so far, one had a Democratic trifecta, eight had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 12 states, there are 1,655 seats up for election, 11% of the nationwide total.

Media analysis

Politico wrote about the abortion debate in Texas’ 28th, the close runoff results, and the unique composition of the district: 

We still don’t know the fate of Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), the last anti-abortion House Democrat. But no matter what happens, his primary runoff makes clear that abortion rights is not a runaway winner for the party in every slice of the country.

The renewed nationwide debate over abortion access could have blown the race wide open for his progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros, who made women’s health care a more central theme of her campaign in the weeks following the revelation that the Supreme Court was preparing to strike down Roe v. Wade.

Her team’s goal was to run up the margins in the counties around San Antonio, where abortion access is popular. Cuellar, meanwhile, doubled down on his opposition to abortion except in the case of “rape, incest, and danger to the life of the mother.”

But Texas’s 28th District cobbles together two parts of Texas that are very different culturally, and Cuellar’s political instincts may have played out. Cisneros outperformed her March 1 primary performance in the northern part of the district, but so did Cuellar in his home base of Laredo and throughout the culturally conservative Rio Grande Valley.

Democrats hope the abortion debate will energize their base in swing seats across the country — and it still might. But this was not the most effective trial balloon. The border counties in the region are heavily Catholic and perhaps just as motivated to vote to help restrict abortion access. And Cuellar’s brand in the southern part of the district, as a moderate Blue Dog Democrat who is pro-gun, makes him more impervious to the national political trends.

The Associated Press‘ Nicholas Riccardi said progressives have had some recent primary wins and that results in Texas’ 28th were too close to be a clear win for either progressives or moderates, regardless of the outcome: 

After the collapse of much of Biden’s agenda in Congress, progressives have gotten a boost in recent primaries. Their candidate, Summer Lee, narrowly won the primary in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District last week. In Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, centrist Rep. Kurt Schrader was trailing a progressive challenger after their primary last week; the results were delayed by ballot counting problems.

Also Tuesday, Rep. Lucy McBath handily defeated Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux in the Democratic primary in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District in the Atlanta suburbs. While neither has embraced the left wing of the party, Bourdeaux was better known as a moderate than McBath.

Still, the left lost a key congressional primary in the Cleveland area just a few weeks ago. They had an awful track record in 2020. And some Democrats worry — and Republicans hope — that leftist wins in places like Oregon’s 5th or Texas’ 28th will make it harder for the party to hold those relatively moderate districts, especially in what’s looking like a dismal fall for Democrats.

Sometimes, though, races are so close that there’s eventually a winner but no resolution to the political debate they embody. Progressives can note Cisneros improved her margin after losing to Cuellar in 2020. Centrists can point to how the incumbent kept it close even amid the party’s fury about a possible end to the right to abortion.

New York’s new Democratic primary landscape

Last week, we wrote about a potential primary contest between Democratic Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler under New York’s revised congressional district map. On Friday, Steuben County state supreme court Justice Patrick F. McAllister approved the map, kicking off a wave of primary election developments.

In addition to the 12th Congressional District‘s Maloney-Nadler matchup, the 10th and 17th districts are also in the spotlight. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, announced he’s running in the 17th District, which Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) currently represents. The revised map placed Maloney’s residence in the 17th District and made the new 18th more competitive. Maloney represents the current 18th. Jones announced he’d run in the new 10th District.

That’s a lot to process. Here are the incumbents’ movements at a glance, along with the percentage of each new district’s population the incumbent currently represents based on Daily Kos data.

• Carolyn Maloney: 12th District → 12th District. Maloney represents 60% of the new 12th. 
• Jerry Nadler: 10th District → 12th District. Nadler represents 40% of the new 12th. His current district was divided among five new ones, and the 12th contains a plurality of his current constituents.
• Sean Patrick Maloney: 18th District → 17th District. Maloney represents 25% of the new 17th and 71% of the new 18th.
• Mondaire Jones: 17th District → 10th District. Jones represents 0% of the new 10th and 73% of the new 17th.

Incumbent movements aren’t the only big news out of New York.

State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi switched from the 3rd to the 17th Congressional District primary to challenge Sean Patrick Maloney, saying that “having the head of the campaign arm not stay in his district, not maximize the number of seats New York can have to hold the majority” hurt the Democratic Party.

Maloney said when announcing he’d run in the 17th under the new map, “NY-17 includes my home and many of the Hudson Valley communities I currently represent.”

In addition to Jones, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) and state Asm. Yuh-Line Niou (D) announced bids for the 10th District.

The new map is expected to affect Democrats’ general election prospects. Reuter‘s Joseph Ax wrote that the map the state legislature approved would have given Democrats likely control of 22 of 26 House districts and that the special master’s map created eight competitive districts. Republicans need to gain five districts to take control of the House of Representatives.

New York’s primaries are on Aug. 23.

Candidates for U.S. Senate in Iowa participate in debate

On May 19, the three Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate in Iowa participated in a debate sponsored by Iowa PBS. The candidates differed on student debt and healthcare policy.

On student debt, Abby Finkenauer said, “If we do anything when it comes to relief, it should be targeted” and not made available to anybody making more than $100,000 per year.

Michael Franken said student debt relief is divisive and expressed concern about the cost of college: “Someone who graduated two years ago — do we re-compensate them? What about somebody five years from now who has a large debt? Is this an ongoing thing? And if we constantly wipe out college debt what do you think the cost of college is going to do?” 

Glenn Hurst said he supports canceling student loan debt and repaying people who have already paid their loans off: “We really need to be looking even farther forward. … Community college should be free, so should trade schools.” 

The candidates also differed on healthcare policy. Finkenhauer said she supports preserving private insurance, increasing Medicare reimbursements, and creating a public option: “If they have negotiated their health care through their union, through their employer and they like it, I’m not taking away anybody’s health care from any Iowan or any American.” 

Franken said government-run healthcare was “the future of America” but said it should be incrementally implemented, starting with expanding Medicare to young children and adults over 50. 

Hurst said he supports Medicare for All: “We can’t be just putting Band-Aids on cannonball wounds. We can’t be taking the Affordable Care Act and expanding it or adding a Medicare option to it. … Medicare for All is the solution.” 

The candidates also said why they think they’re the best choice for voters. Finkenauer said she is the best alternative to incumbent Chuck Grassley (R): “This is what this race is about. It is making sure we hold him accountable and it’s making sure you have somebody who doesn’t want to spend their life in Washington, D.C., like he has.” 

Franken said his campaign appeals to voters in the middle: “It’s that middle segment who want logical, pragmatic, smart, dedicated, national servants to work for them. Leader servants. I believe I’m that person.” 

Hurst said he is “a progressive candidate in this race that is different from the other candidates.” Hurst said other Democrats in the state have “lost because they didn’t appeal to that desire for change.”

The primary election is on June 7. 

Abortion in spotlight in IL-06 Newman-Casten matchup

On May 17, Rep. Marie Newman released an ad in which she talks about her experience getting an abortion when she was 19 and criticizes Rep. Sean Casten for having voted for Republicans. Both incumbents are running in Illinois’ 6th Congressional District primary.

Newman said Casten voted for “anti-choice Republicans like George Bush. … With the stakes this high, who do you trust?” 

In 2020, E&E News reported that Casten voted for George H.W. Bush for president in 1992 and Bob Dole for president in 1996.

Also on May 17, Casten’s campaign tweeted, “Sean Casten is 100% Pro-Choice. Sean received a perfect pro-choice voting score from NARAL, and he’s honored to be endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund and pro-choice leaders like Marcie Love.” The tweet contained an ad with Love’s endorsement. 

Newman currently represents the 3rd Congressional District. She defeated incumbent Dan Lipinski in the 2020 Democratic primary. Lipinski was one of the only Democratic House members opposed to abortion in most cases. 

Newman currently represents 43% of the new 6th District. Casten represents 24% of it.

Competitiveness data: Iowa and New Jersey

Iowa and News Jersey hold primaries on June 7. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition

May 26, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries and the Wisconsin GOP’s lack of endorsement for governor

Primary results roundup

Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia held their primaries on Tuesday. Texas also held primary runoffs for races in which no candidate received a majority of the vote on March 1. 

The big stories of the night: Kemp and Raffensperger win in Georgia, Britt and Brooks advance in Alabama

Georgia Governor: Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp defeated former U.S. Sen. David Perdue and three others. Kemp received 74% of the vote to Perdue’s 22%. There will be no runoff since Kemp received more than 50% of the vote.

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R), Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), and Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) were among Kemp’s endorsers. Perdue’s endorsers included former President Donald Trump (R) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

The 2020 presidential election results were a subject of debate in the primary, as we’ve discussed in several issues of The Heart of the Primaries. Perdue said Kemp had not done enough as governor to investigate the results, while Kemp said he took all appropriate actions within his constitutional authority. 

Kemp was first elected governor in 2018, defeating Stacey Abrams (D) 50% to 48%. Kemp served as Georgia’s secretary of state from 2010 to 2018. Perdue served in the Senate from 2015 to 2021, when Jon Ossoff (D) defeated him in a runoff 50% to 49%.

Kemp will face Abrams again in the Nov. 8 general election. Forecasters rate the general election either as a Toss-up or Tilt Republican.

Georgia Secretary of State: Incumbent Brad Raffensperger defeated three other candidates. Raffensperger received 52% of the vote, and Jody Hice received 33%. Since Raffensperger won more than 50%, there won’t be a runoff.

Reuters‘ Joseph Ax wrote that Raffensperger “has been one of Trump’s most frequent targets ever since he refused, emphatically and publicly, to capitulate to the demands of the former president, his fellow Republican, to ‘find’ enough votes to overturn the results in Georgia’s 2020 presidential vote.” Trump endorsed Hice. 

In January, Raffensperger said, “Congressman Hice, he’s been in Congress for several years. He’s never done a single piece of election reform legislation. Then he certified his own race with those same machines, the same ballots, and yet for President Trump, he said you couldn’t trust that.” 

At a debate earlier this month, Hice said, “The ‘big lie’ in all of this is that there were no problems with this past election. This past election was an absolute disaster under the leadership of Brad Raffensperger.” Hice objected to the counting of Georgia’s electoral votes during the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021. 

Raffensperger was elected secretary of state in 2018. Hice was elected to the U.S. House in 2014. 

Alabama U.S. Senate: Katie Britt and Mo Brooks advanced from a field of six candidates with 45% and 29% of the vote, respectively. As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, Britt and Brooks will compete in a June 21 runoff. Incumbent U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby (R), first elected in 1986, did not seek re-election.

Britt was Shelby’s chief of staff and the president and CEO of the Alabama Business Council. Britt’s campaign website said she was an “advocate for smaller government, modern job growth, constitutional liberties and greater opportunity.” Sen. Shelby, Maggie’s List, and the Value In Electing Women PAC endorsed Britt.

Brooks has represented Alabama’s 5th Congressional District since 2011. Brooks’ campaign ads have highlighted his speech at Trump’s rally on Jan. 6, 2021, which preceded the U.S. Capitol breach. Brooks’ endorsers included Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

Trump endorsed Brooks in April 2021 and withdrew that endorsement two months ago. Trump said, “Mo Brooks of Alabama made a horrible mistake recently when he went ‘woke’ and stated, referring to the 2020 Presidential Election Scam, ‘Put that behind you, put that behind you.'” 

In response, Brooks said, “I am the only proven America First candidate in this Senate race . . . I am the only candidate who fought voter fraud and election theft when it counted, between November 3 and January 6.”

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

• Arkansas U.S. Senate: Incumbent John Boozman defeated three other candidates with 58% of the vote. Jake Bequette finished second with 21%. Boozman was first elected to the Senate in 2010. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.
• Georgia U.S. Senate: Herschel Walker defeated five other candidates with 68% of the vote. Gary Black finished second with 13%. Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) is running for re-election. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Walker. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

U.S. House

• Alabama’s 5th: Dale Strong and Casey Wardynski advanced from a field of six candidates. Strong received 45% of the vote and Wardynski received 23%. The runoff is on June 21. Incumbent Mo Brooks ran for U.S. Senate rather than for re-election. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.

State executives

• Alabama Governor: Incumbent Kay Ivey defeated eight other candidates with 55% of the vote. Lynda Blanchard finished second with 19%. Ivey took office in 2017 following Gov. Robert Bentley’s (R) resignation. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.
• Alabama Secretary of State: Jim Zeigler and Wes Allen advanced to a June 21 runoff with 42% and 40% of the vote, respectively. Incumbent John Merrill (R) did not seek re-election.
• Arkansas Secretary of State: Incumbent John Thurston defeated Eddie Joe Williams 72%-28%. Thurston was first elected to the position in 2018.
• Texas Attorney General runoff: Incumbent Ken Paxton defeated George P. Bush 68%-32%. Paxton was first elected to the position in 2014.
• Texas Railroad Commissioner runoff: Incumbent Wayne Christian defeated Sarah Stogner with 65% of the vote. Stogner received 35%. Christian was first elected in 2016.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday afternoon. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least four state legislators—all Republicans—lost in primaries on May 24. Including those defeats, 61 state legislative incumbents have lost primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 64 primaries featuring incumbents remain uncalled.

Across the 12 states that have held state legislative primaries, 4.5% of incumbents running for re-election have lost. 

Sixty-one primary defeats and a 4.5% loss rate are the largest number and highest incumbent loss rate in these 12 states since 2014.

Of the 12 states that have held primaries so far, one had a Democratic trifecta, eight had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 12 states, there are 1,655 seats up for election, 11% of the nationwide total.

Media analysis

As of Thursday morning, the results of Tuesday’s primaries brought Trump’s 2022 primary endorsement record to 94-7 (93%). Media commentary and analysis following the primaries focused on Trump’s involvement.

RealClearPolitics‘ Susan Crabtree wrote that Trump’s endorsement record differs for gubernatorial and other types of endorsements: 

Millions of words were written and much airtime expended handicapping whether Georgia would show that Trump had molded the Republican Party in his own likeness. It didn’t happen Tuesday night, at least not in Georgia. Kemp maintained his early lead in the polls while earning the endorsement of former Vice President Mike Pence along the way and cruising to an easy victory – as did Raffensperger. Pence, largely written off by the media, looked more prescient, if not instantly relevant. In an appearance with Kemp on the eve of the election, Pence called a vote for Kemp a “deafening message” that the Republican Party is “the party of the future,” stirring new headlines that he is positioning himself for a presidential run in 2024.

…

But Georgia is only one state. Trump has racked up a mixed record in contested primaries so far this year while wading into various contests to settle old scores or establish himself as a kingmaker. J.D. Vance, the Yale law school graduate and venture capitalist turned author, undoubtedly has Trump to thank for his win in Ohio’s GOP Senate primary. Likewise, Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor backed by Trump in Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate race, leads by just under 1,000 votes in a race against hedge fund executive David McCormick, which appears headed for a recount.

Trump has exercised less influence in gubernatorial races – with recent losses from candidates he endorsed in Nebraska and Idaho. He secured one solid win Tuesday night with his strong backing of Herschel Walker, the former University of Georgia football star and pro football running back who easily won his Republican Senate primary in the same state. …

…

Other Tuesday primaries also produced mixed results for Trump. Two-term Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who spearheaded a lawsuit that sought to overturn the 2020 election, got a boost from a Trump endorsement. On Tuesday, Paxton easily defeated Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the son of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and nephew of former President George W. Bush, in a GOP primary runoff.

The lopsided win signaled the triumph of Trumpism over the Bush dynasty. It was particularly notable considering that Paxton, who addressed the pro-Trump crowd in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, is under indictment for alleged securities fraud.

In Alabama, a candidate with Trump’s support before he rescinded it advanced in a Republican runoff to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby. Trump supported Rep. Mo Brooks, a staunch conservative congressman, but rescinded his support after Brooks suggested Republicans should look forward to 2022 and 2024 rather than focusing on Trump’s continued 2020 complaints that the election was stolen. Other prominent Republicans, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, have continued to back him.

The Hill‘s Max Greenwood framed Tuesday’s results as a win for what he called the GOP establishment: 

Tuesday was a good night for the non-Trump, establishment wing of the GOP.

The establishment saw its major victory in Kemp’s gubernatorial primary win. Figures like former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), and Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) all campaigned for the Georgia governor, pitting themselves up against Trump’s endorsement of Perdue.

Meanwhile, in Arkansas, Sen. John Boozman (R) fended off a number of right-wing challengers including former NFL player Jake Bequette. Boozman’s opponents hit him over his vote to affirm the 2020 election results and remarks that Trump had  “some responsibility” for the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. However, Boozman had the support of Trump and former Trump officials like Huckabee Sanders. 

Washington Examiner‘s Sarah Westwood said on Fox Business that the candidates who won in Georgia on Tuesday campaigned on Trump’s populist stances and that voters did not reject the former president’s ideas. Washington Examiner reported on Westwood’s interview:

While incumbents Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R-GA) did not have former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Westwood told Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo Wednesday that their Republican primary victories are not rejections of “Trumpism.”

“I don’t think that’s exactly what we’re seeing because the candidates that did [win], including Gov. Brian Kemp, still ran on the kinds of populist ideas that fueled Trump’s popularity, but what he didn’t do is focus on the 2020 election, and neither did Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who also avoided a runoff,” Westwood said.

Westwood noted that Republican voters appear ready to move forward.

“They want to talk about plans for the economy, plans for keeping schools safe, and keeping leftist ideology out of the classrooms,” she said. “Those are the sorts of things that, I think, are compelling Republican candidates to the forefront, and we saw that voters were not interested in talking about the past.”

Recount on in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate primary

On Wednesday, Pennsylvania Acting Secretary of State Leigh Chapman ordered a recount in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate GOP primary. Mehmet Oz led David McCormick by fewer than 1,000 votes according to unofficial returns before the recount. State law requires a recount if the margin between the top two candidates is within 0.5% of all votes cast for a statewide office. That’s roughly 6,700 votes in this primary, based on totals available Thursday morning.

The recount must be completed by June 7.

Wisconsin Republican Party does not endorse in gubernatorial primary

For the first time since the Wisconsin Republican Party began issuing endorsements in 2009, the party did not endorse a gubernatorial candidate at its annual convention on May 21. 

According to the Associated Press’s Scott Bauer, “The party’s endorsement in the governor’s race is important because it unlocks funding from the state party, which can then spend as much as it wants on the winner. Being united is all the more important when facing an incumbent like [Tony Evers (D)] in a race that’s a top priority for Democrats nationally.” 

At Saturday’s convention, delegates voted to allow a “no endorsement” option for statewide races. To receive the party’s endorsement, a candidate needed at least 60% of delegates’ vote. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch received 55% of the vote, and “no endorsement” received 43%. According to Wisconsin Public Radio’s Shawn Johnson, “State Rep. Tim Ramthun received roughly 2.6 percent of the vote. Republicans Kevin Nicholson and Tim Michels came in third and fourth in an earlier round of voting, eliminating them from the final ballot.”

Bauer wrote, “[W]ith many Republicans running as outsiders, there [was] more pressure on the party — mostly from [gubernatorial candidate Kevin Nicholson] — to back away from its typical endorsement process. … Nicholson, who is running as an outsider candidate, argued that endorsing a candidate ahead of the primary would create divisions unnecessarily.”

Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Paul Farrow said the vote “signaled the grassroots’ desire to allow all voices to be heard ahead of the August primary, and we look forward to hearing from the candidates as they continue to make their case in the coming months.”

After the vote, Kleefisch said, “Did you see the numbers? There’s a clear frontrunner.” 

Nicholson said, “I very clearly told everybody to vote for ‘no endorsement.’ … ‘No endorsement’ carried the day. We won.”

The primary is Aug. 9. Six candidates are currently running. The filing deadline is June 1. 

The state party also did not endorse candidates for lieutenant governor, attorney general, or secretary of state. It did endorse U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) for re-election and Orlando Owens (R) for state treasurer. 

Competitiveness data: Iowa and New Jersey

Iowa and News Jersey hold primaries on June 7. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

In this issue: Takeaways from five states’ primaries and former V.P. Pence to campaign for Kemp

Primary results roundup

Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Oregon held primaries on May 17.

The big stories of the night: Expected Pennsylvania recount, Cawthorn defeated, and more

Pennsylvania Senate: As of Thursday morning, the race remained too close to call. Mehmet Oz led with 31.2% of the vote, while David McCormick received 31.1% and Kathy Barnette received 24.7%. Seven candidates ran in the primary. Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not run for re-election.

Under state law, any election with a vote margin within 0.5% is subject to an automatic recount. If applicable, the secretary of state must order the recount by May 26. It must start by June 1 and be completed by June 7.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Oz in April. Former candidate Sean Parnell, whom Trump initially endorsed before Parnell withdrew, endorsed McCormick. On May 12, Trump issued a statement opposing Barnette, who rose in recent polls. 

Three independent race forecasters rate the general election either Toss-up or Tilt Republican. 

North Carolina’s 11th: State Sen. Chuck Edwards defeated incumbent Madison Cawthorn and six others in the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District. Eight candidates were on the ballot. Edwards received 33.4% of the vote to Cawthorn’s 31.9%.

Cawthorn is the second U.S. representative to seek re-election and lose a primary this year. Rep. David McKinley (R) lost to Rep. Alexander Mooney (R) in West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. The two ran in the same district following redistricting. In addition, Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) remained on the ballot in Ohio’s 7th District after he unofficially withdrew. Max Miller won that primary. Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) of Oregon’s 5th is trailing challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner as of Thursday morning and may become the third House member to lose a re-election bid.

Trump endorsed Cawthorn on March 31. Following Cawthorn’s claims in late March 2022 that Washington lawmakers hold orgies and use cocaine, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) endorsed Edwards. 

Three independent forecasters rate the general election either Safe or Solid Republican. 

Pennsylvania Governor: State Sen. Doug Mastriano won against eight candidates. Mastriano received 44% of the vote. Former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta was second with 20%.

Mastriano campaigned on his opposition to COVID-19 measures and said he would defend election integrity. Mastriano said voting fraud was prevalent in the 2020 election. On Feb. 15, the U.S. House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach subpoenaed Mastriano, citing a November 2020 tweet and his presence outside the Capitol on the day of the breach. Trump endorsed Mastriano on May 14.

The 2022 primary featured the largest number of candidates in a Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial primary since at least 1978. Incumbent Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited. Forecasters view the general election as a Toss-up or Tilt or Lean Democratic.

Idaho Governor: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little defeated seven other candidates. Little received 53% of the vote to Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin’s 32%.

According to the Idaho Press‘s Betsy Russell, a lieutenant governor hadn’t challenged an incumbent governor in a primary in Idaho since 1938. Idaho is one of 17 states where the lieutenant governor is elected separately from the governor instead of on the same ticket.

Trump endorsed McGeachin in the primary. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund and the Idaho Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Little.

Twice in 2021, McGeachin issued executive orders related to COVID-19 measures while Little was out of state. The first banned mask mandates. The second expanded a prohibition against state entities requiring vaccination or testing. Little rescinded both orders when he returned to Idaho.

Independent forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican.

We’ve been tracking Trump’s 2022 endorsements. The May 17 primary results (so far) bring Trump’s primary endorsement record to 73 wins (96%) and 3 losses. Aside from McGeachin and Cawthorn, Nebraska gubernatorial endorsee Charles Herbster lost last week.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

• North Carolina Senate: Ted Budd defeated 13 other candidates with 59% of the vote. Pat McCrory was second with 25%. Trump endorsed Budd, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed McCrory. Incumbent Richard Burr (R) did not run for re-election. Three forecasters rate the general election as Lean Republican.

U.S. House

• North Carolina’s 13th: Bo Hines defeated seven other candidates with 32% of the vote. DeVan Barbour IV finished second with 23%. The current incumbent, Rep. Ted Budd, ran for the GOP Senate nomination. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

State legislative incumbents defeated

At least 30 state legislators—eight Democrats and 22 Republicans—lost in primaries on May 17. Including those defeats, 44 state legislative incumbents have lost to primary challengers this year. This number will likely increase: there are 42 primaries or primary runoffs featuring incumbents that remain uncalled or undecided.

Across the nine states that have held primaries, 4.7% of incumbents running for re-election have lost.

That 4.7% loss rate is the highest compared to previous cycles in these nine states. In 2020, 3.3% of incumbents running for re-election lost primaries. In 2018, 4.3% lost in primaries.

Of the nine states that have held primaries so far, one had a Democratic trifecta, five had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these nine states, 1,114 seats are up for election, 18% of the nationwide total.

Media analysis

The Washington Examiner‘s Kate Scanlon wrote about Mastriano’s perceived gubernatorial general election prospects: 

Trump offered his endorsement to Mastriano on Saturday after it became clear he was the front-runner in the race. The move was seen as a hedge, as Trump’s selection for the Senate, television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, was in a tight three-way race with businessman David McCormick and conservative commentator Kathy Barnette, who surged in polling in the final days of the race. Barnette and Mastriano ran campaigns in tandem, endorsing one another.

Some state Republicans were concerned Mastriano would hurt Republicans’ chances of winning not just the governor’s mansion but the Senate race and some congressional contests. They attempted to coalesce the field around former Rep. Lou Barletta, arguing he was better positioned to defeat Shapiro in November.

Politico‘s David Siders said Mastriano’s prospects may be better than some observers think, referencing Trump’s performance in the state:

Everything about Pennsylvania’s swing state electorate suggests Mastriano is a dead man walking.

Except for this: Lots of Republicans and Democrats alike felt exactly the same way about Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential primary, back when establishment Republicans were praying for anyone other than Trump to win the nomination and some of Hillary Clinton’s advisers were salivating over the prospect of running against Trump. The climate for Democrats in this midterm election year is no better than it was then. In fact, it’s worse. And Pennsylvania is a swing state for a reason. Trump only lost Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes in 2020. He won the state four years earlier.

Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser described what he saw as both the strength and limitation of Trump’s influence in Tuesday’s primaries:  

The [Senate primary in Pennsylvania] is proving another test of Trump’s immense sway over the GOP. Sixteen months removed from the White House, the former president remains the most popular and influential politician in the Republican Party as he plays a kingmaker’s role in this year’s primaries and repeatedly flirts with another presidential run in 2024.

Trump was a winner in Pennsylvania’s GOP gubernatorial primary, as state Sen. Doug Mastriano bested a crowded field of contenders. Mastriano was already the polling front-runner when the former president endorsed him on Saturday.

…

Trump was also a big winner in North Carolina’s Republican Senate primary – in another crucial race in a general election battleground where the GOP’s defending an open seat.  

…

Trump’s clout couldn’t pull controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorne over the top in the Republican primary in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, however. Even with Trump’s backing in the final days heading into the primary, Cawthorne – who’s made plenty of enemies in the GOP in his short year and a half on Capitol Hill – came up short to state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who enjoyed the backing of many of the party’s establishment.

In Idaho, far-right Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin handily lost her bid to oust incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little. Trump endorsed McGeachin last autumn, but did little to actively support her.

First poll released for special U.S. House top-four primary in Alaska

Alaska Survey Research published the first poll we’ve seen of Alaska’s top-four U.S. House special primary. The poll included 12 of the 48 candidates by name. 

We’ve colored in the names below based on party affiliation (blue for Democrats, red for Republicans, and gray for independents). Affiliation was not included in the poll.

• Palin 19%
• Begich 16%
• Gross 13%
• Claus 6%
• Peltola 5%
• Constant 5%
• Sweeney 4%
• Revak 4%
• Lowenfels 3%
• Wool 2%
• Halcro 2%
• Coghill 2%
• Other 4%
• Undecided 16%

The poll’s margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points.

Former Governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Al Gross (I) top the results. A cluster of candidates are within the margin of error for fourth place, including North Pole City Councilmember Santa Claus (I), former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D), Anchorage Assemblymember Christopher Constant (D), former Assistant Secretary of the Interior Tara Sweeney (R), and state Sen. Josh Revak (R).

Sweeney and Revak co-chaired former Rep. Don Young’s (R) statewide re-election campaign. Young died in March. 

The special primary is June 11, and the special general election is Aug. 16. The regularly scheduled primary will also be held Aug. 16.

In addition to top-four primaries, Alaska will use ranked-choice voting for both general elections.

Alaska Survey Research tested four general election scenarios. Each included Begich, Gross, and Palin, with someone different in the fourth spot. In each RCV simulation, Begich and Gross were left standing in the 3rd round, with Begich taking a majority.

Minnesota GOP endorses Scott Jensen for governor

On Saturday, the Minnesota Republican Party endorsed Scott Jensen for governor. According to the Star Tribune, it was “a heated endorsement fight that started with a crowded field of contenders and featured multiple rounds of balloting.” Kendall Qualls, who finished second in the voting, announced after the GOP convention that he was dropping out of the race.

Jensen, a physician who served in the state Senate from 2017 to 2021, has campaigned on his opposition to vaccine and mask requirements. 

Gov. Tim Walz (D) is seeking re-election. The primaries are Aug. 9.

Former Vice President Mike Pence to campaign for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R) announced he’ll be campaigning for Gov. Brian Kemp (R) at a rally on May 23. Pence said Kemp is “one of the most successful conservative governors in America.”

Kemp faces former U.S. Sen. David Perdue (R) and three others in the May 24 primary. Trump endorsed Perdue in December, saying, “Kemp has been a very weak Governor—the liberals and RINOs have run all over him on Election Integrity, and more.”

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein said Pence’s upcoming rally appearance “illustrates a growing proxy fight in Georgia between establishment forces backing Kemp and the Trump loyalists who want to remake the state Republican Party in the former president’s mold.” Bluestein said Pence’s endorsement “deepen[ed] a split with Donald Trump as each maneuvers for a possible 2024 White House run.”

Pence’s announcement followed news that Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), and former President George W. Bush (R) would campaign for Kemp. Ricketts and Ducey are co-chairmen of the Republican Governors Association (RGA), and Christie is a former RGA chairman.

Competitiveness data: Alabama

Alabama holds primaries on May 24. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

In this issue: Takeaways from five states’ primaries and another possible incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary in NY

Primary results roundup

Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Oregon held primaries on May 17.

The big stories of the night: Fetterman wins, and too-close-to-call House races in Oregon

Pennsylvania Senate: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman defeated U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, and Alexandria Khalil. As of Thursday morning, Fetterman received 59% of the vote and Lamb was second with 26%.

Fetterman’s top campaign priorities were adopting a single-payer healthcare system, legalizing marijuana, and supporting LGBTQIA+ rights. The Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association and The Philadelphia Tribune were among his backers. Lamb said his priorities included expanding Medicare, reducing prescription drug prices, a $15 minimum wage, and strengthening unions. Lamb’s endorsers included the Philadelphia Democratic Party and The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Pennsylvania is one of two states Joe Biden won in 2020 that has a U.S. Senate election this year in which the current incumbent is a Republican. Pennsylvania is also one of six states with one senator who caucuses with Democrats and another who caucuses with Republicans. 

Oregon’s 5th: As of Thursday morning, Jamie McLeod-Skinner led incumbent Kurt Schrader 60%-39%. Schrader has represented the 5th District since 2009. According to Daily Kos, 47% of the population in the new 5th District after redistricting comes from the old 5th District that Schrader has represented. 

Schrader campaigned on what he called a record of bipartisanship, saying it represented his constituents. McLeod-Skinner criticized Schrader’s record and said she’d do more on the issues of housing, healthcare, childcare, and the environment. 

President Joe Biden (D) and Planned Parenthood Action Fund were among Schrader’s endorsers. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and the Democratic parties in Deschutes, Linn, Clackamas, and Marion counties—containing more than 90% of the new district’s voters—endorsed McLeod-Skinner.

Schrader may become the third House member to lose a re-election bid this year. Reps. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) and David McKinley (R-W.V.) lost their primaries. 

Oregon’s 6th: As of Thursday morning, Andrea Salinas led eight other candidates with 37% of the vote. Carrick Flynn was second with 19%. 

Satellite group spending was a big issue in the race. The House Majority PAC spent $1 million and Protect Our Future PAC spent more than $10 million backing Flynn, while the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ Bold PAC spent $1 million supporting Salinas. Salinas and five other candidates criticized House Majority PAC’s spending, saying in a joint statement, “This effort by the political arm of the Democratic establishment to buy this race for one candidate is a slap in the face to every Democratic voter and volunteer in Oregon.” The PAC’s communications director said it was “doing whatever it takes to secure a Democratic House majority in 2022.”

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

• Kentucky’s 3rd: Morgan McGarvey defeated Attica Scott 63% to 37%. Incumbent John Yarmuth (D) did not seek re-election. Yarmuth endorsed McGarvey. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorsed Scott. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Democratic.
• North Carolina’s 1st: Donald Davis defeated three other candidates with 63% of the vote. Erica Smith finished second with 31%. Incumbent G.K. Butterfield (D) didn’t seek re-election this year. Butterfield endorsed Davis. Three forecasters rate the general Lean Democratic.
• North Carolina’s 4th: Valerie Foushee defeated seven other candidates with 46% of the vote. Nida Allam finished second with 37%. Incumbent David Price (D) did not seek re-election. U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) backed Foushee. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Allam. Three forecasters rate the general Safe or Solid Democratic.
• Pennsylvania’s 12th: This race was too close to call as of Thursday morning. Summer Lee had 41.7% to Steve Irwin’s 41.3%. Forecasters rate the general Safe or Solid Democratic.

State executive

• Oregon Governor: Tina Kotek defeated 14 other candidates with 58% of the vote. Tobias Read finished second with 33%. Incumbent Kate Brown (D) was term-limited. Three forecasters rate the general election Lean or Likely Democratic.

State legislative incumbents defeated

At least 30 state legislators—eight Democrats and 22 Republicans—lost in primaries on May 17. Including those defeats, 44 state legislative incumbents have lost to primary challengers this year. This number will likely increase: there are 42 primaries or primary runoffs featuring incumbents that remain uncalled or undecided.

Across the nine states that have held primaries, 4.7% of incumbents running for re-election have lost.

That 4.7% loss rate is the highest compared to previous cycles in these nine states. In 2020, 3.3% of incumbents running for re-election lost primaries. In 2018, 4.3% lost in primaries.

Of the nine states that have held primaries so far, one had a Democratic trifecta, five had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these nine states, 1,114 seats are up for election, 18% of the nationwide total.

Media analysis

Politico‘s David Siders said Tuesday was a good night for progressives:

In North Carolina, two progressives, Nida Allam and Erica Smith, went down in open seat House primaries. But even with those losses — and even if the results in Oregon [5th and 6th District] and Pennsylvania [12th District] turn — it will go down as a good night for the left.

At a minimum, they have Fetterman and Salinas. And in the Senate, the rest of the map was pretty promising for progressives as well. A night that produced Fetterman — and Charles Booker and Cheri Beasley in Kentucky and North Carolina, respectively — as Democratic Senate nominees is a night progressives can learn to love.

CNN said that Fetterman’s win in Pennsylvania and Cheri Beasley’s win in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate primary speak to a shift in the Democratic Party: 

What it means to be a top Democratic recruit is changing.

On Tuesday night, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a 6-foot, 8-inch, bald, tattooed former mayor known for wearing shorts and hoodies, ran away with the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary. In North Carolina, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley largely cleared the primary field and coasted to a nomination that could make her the state’s first Black senator.

Their wins are part of a change within the Democratic Party, where what constituted a good recruit in cycles past meant someone who looked a lot more like the people Fetterman and Beasley beat.

Jewish Telegraphic Agency‘s Ron Kampeas wrote that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s super PAC contributed to Davis’ and Foushee’s wins in North Carolina:

Moderate Democrats backed by political action committees affiliated with the AIPAC pro-Israel lobby won hotly contested Democratic primaries Tuesday, which the group said was a vindication of its controversial decision to dive into direct campaign funding.

…

Both races were to replace longtime Democrats who are retiring and were two of three closely watched in the pro-Israel community because of massive injections of cash by United Democracy Project, a so-called “super PAC” launched last year by AIPAC. The PAC targeted the races because [Erica] Smith and [Nida] Allam would have added to the contingent of congressional lawmakers who seek stricter oversight and limitations on defense aid for Israel.

The third race, in Pennsylvania’s newly drawn 12th District, was too close to call, with the United Democracy-backed candidate, Pittsburgh lawyer Steve Irwin, less than a percentage point behind State Rep. Summer Lee with 98% of the vote counted.

It’s not clear how much AIPAC’s support drove the outcomes, as both Davis and Foushee had support from the local Democratic establishment and the cryptocurrency sector, which is seeking to deter congressional oversight, also poured money into the races.

But it’s clear that the pro-Israel funding, which also flowed to a lesser degree from a PAC associated with the group Democratic Majority for Israel, did register in the races. In the Pittsburgh-area district Lee was seen as the clear front-runner until she was hit by a barrage of negative ads paid for by United Democracy. And in North Carolina’s 4th District, the pro-Israel donations caused the state’s progressive caucus to rescind its endorsement of Foushee.

The Washington Post‘s Aaron Blake said Oregon’s big House races were heading in a negative direction for what he called the Democratic establishment:

There’s a reason we focus on Trump’s endorsements: Because he makes a lot of them, and he’s obviously trying to maintain control of the party during an uncertain time. But President Biden has made a couple of endorsements, too, including for Rep. Shontel M. Brown (D-Ohio) in her landslide over Turner.

It’s worth noting that one of those endorsed — Schrader — is losing pretty badly. … Schrader is a moderate who sometimes alienated fellow House Democrats on spending bills — and who, because of redistricting, was campaigning in a very different district than in years past.

Backing an incumbent facing a primary challenge is kind of a no-brainer for a president, but it’s looking as if Oregon voters had little regard for Biden’s advice.

…

Speaking of the Democratic establishment getting one wrong: Biden aside, the party more broadly didn’t fight too hard for Schrader. But a PAC affiliated with House Democratic leaders did spend $1 million on a candidate in the neighboring 6th District, Carrick Flynn. …

That investment in an apparently losing candidate, though, pales to Flynn’s biggest benefactor: cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried. His Protect Our Future PAC spent more than $11 million on Flynn — a stunning sum for one out of 435 House seats — and it appears to have failed badly.

Flynn ultimately benefited from $13 million in outside spending … for 19 percent of the vote.

Reps. Carolyn Maloney, Jerry Nadler may both run in NY-12 

On Monday, Democratic Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler both said they would run in New York’s 12th Congressional District under a new draft district map. Maloney chairs the House Oversight Committee. Nadler chairs the Judiciary Committee. Both representatives were first elected to the House in 1992.

A special master released the draft after the New York State Court of Appeals overturned the legislature’s previously enacted map. The court ruled the legislature did not get enough input from the state’s redistricting commission.

According to Daily Kos, Nadler “represents 39% of the redrawn (and safely blue) district while Maloney represents the remaining 61%.”

If the state Court of Appeals approves the draft map, the Maloney-Nadler primary would be the sixth U.S. House primary this year featuring two incumbents and the fourth with two Democratic incumbents.

We wrote about the 12th District primary under the overturned congressional map. That race included candidates Suraj Patel and Rana Abdelhamid. Both said they are holding off on decisions about their bids as the draft map is not final.

The primary is scheduled for Aug. 23.

Satellite ads zero in on abortion stances in TX-28 runoff

Recent satellite group ads supporting either incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar or Jessica Cisneros highlight their positions on abortion.

Last week, the group Mainstream Democrats PAC released an ad supporting Cuellar. The narrator said, “With women’s rights under attack from extremists, Democrat Henry Cuellar has made it clear that he opposes a ban on abortion.” The ad also says Cuellar “is standing up for South Texas families by working every day to hold down our cost of living,” including supporting lower drug prices, affordable health care, child care assistance, and a $15 minimum wage. 

On May 13, Women Vote!, a super PAC affiliated with EMILY’s List, booked $526,000 in TV ads supporting Cisneros. One ad, with versions in both English and Spanish, criticizes Cuellar for being the only Democrat to vote against the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have legalized abortion nationally. The narrator says “[Cuellar is] voting with MAGA Republicans against women’s healthcare.” The ad also says Cuellar “voted to make it harder to join a union and opposed expanding overtime pay.” 

As we wrote earlier this month, abortion policy has been in the spotlight in the runoff, especially after Politico published a leaked initial draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn rulings in Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, allowing states to decide the legality of abortion. To learn more about the issue of abortion in this race, click here. 

In the March 1 primary,  Cuellar received 48% to Cisneros’ 47%. Tannya Benavides received 5%. The primary runoff is May 24. 

Competitiveness data: Alabama

Alabama holds primaries on May 24. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition

May 5, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from Ohio’s and Indiana’s primary elections and Manchin’s pro-McKinley ad in WV-02

May 3 primary results roundup

Ohio and Indiana held primary elections on Tuesday. Indiana’s ballot included state legislative elections, while Ohio’s did not, as redistricting is still underway. Below, you’ll find results from marquee GOP primaries, takeaways, and info on incumbents who lost primaries.

The big story of the night: Vance wins U.S. Senate primary in Ohio 

Ohio U.S. Senate: J.D. Vance won Ohio’s U.S. Senate primary with 32% of the vote. Josh Mandel was second with 24%, and Matt Dolan finished third with 23%. Four other candidates ran. 

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Vance in mid-April. Independent polling available before that, from late February and early March, showed Mandel and Mike Gibbons leading. Four of the five candidates with the most votes—except Dolan—campaigned on connections to and support for Trump. 

Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) is retiring.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

• Indiana’s 9th: In the state’s only open House district, Erin Houchin defeated eight other candidates with 37% of the vote. Mike Sodrel was second with 26%. Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth (R) didn’t seek re-election. Three forecasters rate the district Safe or Solid Republican.
• Ohio’s 9th: J.R. Majewski won with 36% of the vote. Craig Riedel was second with 31%. Incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) was first elected in 1982 and is seeking re-election. This is a Toss-up district in race ratings.
• Ohio’s 13th: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert defeated six other candidates with 29% of the vote. Gregory Wheeler was second with 23%. Gilbert worked on Trump’s 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. Incumbent Tim Ryan (D) is running for U.S. Senate. This is a Toss-up or Tilt Republican district in ratings.

State executive

• Ohio Governor: Incumbent Mike DeWine won with 48%. Jim Renacci was second with 28%. DeWine’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was an issue in the race. Renacci said DeWine overreacted with restrictions, while DeWine said he acted in the best interest of Ohioans.
• Ohio Secretary of State: Incumbent Frank LaRose defeated John Adams 65% to 35%.

Defeated incumbents

U.S. Rep. Bob Gibbs (OH-07) was the only Republican congressional incumbent to (technically) lose in Tuesday’s primaries. Gibbs announced on April 6 that he wasn’t running for re-election. But because Gibbs already qualified, he remained on the primary ballot.

In Indiana, six GOP state legislators—five representatives and one senator—lost primaries. 

• Three Republican incumbents—one in the Indiana Senate and two in the Indiana House—were defeated in incumbent-on-incumbent primaries resulting from redistricting. 
• Three Republican incumbents in the state House lost to non-incumbent challengers.

In 2020, one Indiana GOP legislator—a state representative—lost in a primary. In 2018, two GOP incumbents—a state senator and a representative—lost primaries.

The following shows data from 14 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from two states—Texas and Indiana—where state legislative elections have taken place.

Media analysis

Media analysis following the May 3 GOP primaries has largely focused on Trump’s influence in Ohio. We present a few perspectives on that below, in addition to a takeaway from Indiana’s state legislative races.

Politico‘s David Siders and Adam Wren said Vance’s victory was a victory for Trump and that Dolan’s performance did not suggest good prospects for non-Trump-aligned candidates in 2024: 

People in Trump’s orbit are preparing for his dominion over the GOP to take a hit in primaries scheduled for later this month. The candidates he’s supporting for governor in Georgia and Idaho are both running far behind more establishment-minded incumbents, and several other Trump-endorsed candidates are in toss-up races. Trump isn’t likely to win them all.

But J.D. Vance’s victory in the Ohio Senate primary on Tuesday was an unmistakable victory for Trump. Unlike in the Texas primaries, where the former president backed a raft of successful Republicans — but mostly made safe choices — Trump took a risk on Vance.

…

With Vance, Mandel, Timken and Gibbons clobbering each other over who was the Trumpiest, Dolan, who distanced himself from Trump, appeared to have space open to him with a non-MAGA hardliner crowd.

…

But he didn’t win. Or even come close. …

Dolan isn’t a pure test of the anti-Trump Republican. He was a supporter of Trump, after all, voting twice for the former president. But it’s the closest thing we’ve seen this election cycle to a different prototype for 2024 — and it ended poorly for the candidate tied least tightly to Trump.

CNN said that Ohio’s Senate primary result attests to Trump’s endorsement power in open primaries:

Vance’s victory underscored the former President’s role as the kingmaker in the Republican Party. Though it’s not clear whether Trump will succeed in his effort to oust incumbent Republicans he believes have wronged him, Ohio’s results demonstrated that in open-seat races, his endorsement might be the most important factor.

ABC News’ Brittany Shepherd said DeWine’s win was slightly unfavorable for Trump:

Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, who rose in popularity after imposing more aggressive coronavirus restrictions in his state, won the Republican bid for reelection and defeated Trump-affiliated candidate Jim Renacci (who was endorsed by Trump in 2018, when Renacci ran and lost a Senate bid.) DeWine’s win means a slight loss for the former president, who suggested DeWine needed to be primaried for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Even though Trump steered clear of a formal endorsement, his apparent disdain for the incumbent governor is no secret and his opponents differed little from Trump in campaign talking points, which calls into question the lasting power of Trump’s influence.

The Associated Press‘ Tom Davies and Casey Smith said Indiana state legislative candidates frustrated over COVID-19 restrictions and other issues performed poorly on Tuesday:

Frustrated Indiana conservatives fell short in most primary races Tuesday in their drive to push the Republican-controlled state Legislature further to the right, and two of the movement’s leaders lost their reelection bids.

The roughly two dozen so-called liberty candidates saw only a few victories in Republican legislative races across the state, with one defeating a 10-term incumbent in northern Indiana and two others winning nominations for GOP-leaning open seats.

A few races remained uncalled late Tuesday, but more than 10 incumbent lawmakers overcame challenges from candidates who argued that the Legislature hasn’t been aggressive enough in attempting to ban abortion, enhancing gun rights and overturning COVID-19 restrictions that were ordered by Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb.

McKinley ad features Manchin support in WV-02

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) appeared in an ad defending Rep. David McKinley (R) against criticisms from Rep. Alex Mooney (R). McKinley and Mooney are running in the GOP primary for the state’s redrawn 2nd Congressional District.

Manchin said, “For Alex Mooney and his out-of-state supporters to suggest David McKinley supported Build Back Better is an outright lie. David McKinley has always opposed reckless spending because it doesn’t make sense for West Virginia.”

Mooney said Republicans who voted for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act “paved the way for Democrats to pass President Biden’s socialist Build Back Better plan.” McKinley was one of 13 Republican House members who voted for the infrastructure bill.

Manchin said in December that he would not support the Build Back Better Act.

West Virginia lost a congressional district after the 2020 census. According to Daily Kos data, McKinley currently represents 66% of the new 2nd District’s population and Mooney currently represents 34%.

Along with Manchin, McKinley’s supporters include Gov. Jim Justice (R), former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R), and the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce. Mooney’s endorsers include former President Trump, the House Freedom Fund, and Club for Growth PAC.

(In Ohio’s U.S. Senate primary, Trump and the Club for Growth backed different candidates—the Club endorsed Mandel, whereas Trump backed Vance.)

West Virginia’s primaries are on May 10.

Michigan GOP committee member resigns over state party endorsements

Tony Daunt resigned as a state GOP committee member days after the party’s endorsement convention. 

Daunt said in his resignation letter that the “feckless, cowardly party ‘leaders’ have made the election here in Michigan a test of who is the most cravenly loyal to Donald Trump and relitigating the results of the 2020 cycle.”

The party endorsed Kristina Karamo for secretary of state and Matt DePerno for attorney general. Both candidates have questioned the results of the 2020 election and have endorsements from Trump. In the second round of voting at the convention, DePerno got 54% to former state House Speaker Tom Leonard’s 46%. Karamo got 67% in the first round, followed by state Rep. Beau LaFave’s 19% and Chesterfield Township Clerk Cindy Berry’s 13%.

Daunt serves on the Michigan Board of State Canvassers. He previously served as logistics director for the state party and as executive director of the Michigan Freedom Fund, a nonprofit with funding from the DeVos family.

After the convention, state party chairman Ron Weiser said, “We’re coming out united and ready to move forward and win in the fall.”

Michigan is a Democratic triplex, meaning its governor, secretary of state, and attorney general are all Democrats.

The primaries are Aug. 2.

Trump defends Nebraska gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster against accusations of sexual assault 

We wrote a couple of weeks ago that Nebraska state Sen. Julie Slama (R) and seven other women accused gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster of sexual assault. The Nebraska Examiner first published the allegations on April 14. 

Former President Trump, who endorsed Herbster in October 2021, spoke at a rally for Herbster in Greenwood, Nebraska, on May 1. Trump said, “Charles is a fine man and he is innocent of these despicable charges, by the way Charles welcome to politics. … These are malicious charges to derail him long enough that the election can go by before the proper defense can be put forward.” 

Herbster filed a defamation lawsuit against Slama on April 22. Herbster said, “As set forth in my lawsuit, the false accusations and attacks on my character are part of a greater scheme calculated to try and defeat my candidacy.” 

Slama countersued Herbster for sexual battery on April 25. Slama’s attorney said, “We will not permit Charles Herbster to file a frivolous, bad faith lawsuit that purports to cast doubt on Senator Slama’s account of her sexual assault, use his national media megaphone to herald the existence of that lawsuit for his own gain, but then take no steps to actually serve it and subject himself to the legal accountability such service would trigger.” 

On April 26, the Herbster campaign released an ad that said, “Clarence Thomas. Then Brett Kavanaugh. Lies stacked up to ruin them. Now [gubernatorial candidate Jim Pillen] and [incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts] are doing it to Charles W. Herbster. The facts? Herbster’s accuser was employed by Ricketts. Her husband and sister? Ricketts gave them jobs too. And even after the supposed incident, she kept contacting Herbster. Texts, calls, meetings, even invited Herbster to her destination wedding. Jim Pillen’s attack on Herbster: built on lies.” 

Slama’s attorney said the ad “promotes a far-ranging conspiracy theory that other people are behind well-corroborated reports of sexual assault and harassment of 8 women and at least 3 on-the-record witness accounts.” 

Days before Herbster released the ad, Ricketts said, “It is ridiculous to suggest that I or anyone else conspired to talk eight women and even more witnesses to make up stories about Charles Herbster. … It’s just not plausible.” In January, Ricketts endorsed Pillen in the May 10 gubernatorial primary. 

Competitiveness data: South Dakota  

South Dakota’s filing deadline for congressional and state candidates was March 29.

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

South Dakota

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition

April 28, 2022

In this issue: Trump and Club for Growth at odds in Ohio and Rep. Wilson backs Mace challenger in SC-01

Ohio U.S. Senate updates: Former President Trump appears at Vance rally, Club for Growth releases anti-Vance ad

As former President Donald Trump (R) increases his presence in support of Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance, the Club for Growth has continued its anti-Vance campaign with a new ad.

Trump appeared at a rally for Vance in Delaware, Ohio, on April 23, saying, “J.D. is really an America First warrior. He believes so much in making our country great again, and he’s going to do a job on these horrible people that are running against him.” 

Vance is one of seven Republicans seeking the GOP nomination. The current incumbent, Sen. Rob Portman (R), is retiring. Trump endorsed Vance on April 15. The former president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., appeared with Vance at another rally in Toledo, Ohio, on April 25.

After Trump endorsed Vance, the Club for Growth super PAC bought airtime for a new ad that includes Vance’s past criticism of Trump. Politico reported on April 22 that Club for Growth president David McIntosh “had warned Trump that the Club for Growth would continue to take out television ads attacking Vance for his past anti-Trump comments” before Trump’s endorsement. Club for Growth supports Josh Mandel in the primary.

Columbiana County Republican Party chairman Dave Johnson said of Trump’s endorsement, “Will it be enough to put [Vance] over the victory line? I don’t know the answer to that question.” Johnson supports Jane Timken in the primary.

A Fox News poll conducted April 20-24 showed Vance at 23%, Mandel at 18%, and Gibbons at 13%. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points.

Two independent race observers view the general election as Solid or Likely Republican. The Cook Political Report sees the general election as Lean Republican.

Rep. Joe Wilson endorses Katie Arrington in SC-01 Republican primary

On April 21, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) endorsed Katie Arrington in South Carolina’s 1st  Congressional District Republican primary. Arrington and Lynz Piper-Loomis are challenging incumbent Nancy Mace for the Republican nomination.

Wilson said, “As murderers and enemies of freedom grow emboldened by the feeble leadership of the Biden Administration, Washington needs more people who understand the significant implications of a weak America on the world stage.” 

Mace’s campaign said, “Joe Wilson is the reason we need term limits in Congress. Conservative groups rate him the most liberal Republican Congressman from South Carolina. Of course he endorses the most liberal Republican in the primary, who voted for the largest tax increase in SC history.” 

According to The Hill, the campaign was referring to “a bill the state House passed in 2017, when Arrington was a state lawmaker, that proposed a motor fuel user fee.”

Arrington defeated incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford 50.6%-46.5% in the 1st District’s 2018 Republican primary. Arrington lost the general election to Joe Cunningham (D) 50.6%-49.2%. Mace defeated Cunningham in 2020 50.6%-49.3%.

Arrington has criticized Mace for critical comments she made about former President Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach and for her position on marijuana (Mace has sponsored legislation to federally decriminalize marijuana). Mace said of Arrington’s 2018 election loss: “If you want to lose this seat once again in the midterm election cycle to Democrats, then my opponent is more than qualified to do just that.” 

Trump endorsed Arrington in February. Mace received endorsements from former Trump administration officials Nikki Haley (R), a former South Carolina governor, and Mick Mulvaney (R), a former U.S. representative from the state.

The primary is on June 14. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, a runoff will be held June 28.

No candidates receive GOP endorsement in MN-01 primary

After seven rounds of voting on April 23 and 24th, none of the candidates running in the Republican primary in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District received enough delegate votes to win the 1st District GOP’s endorsement.

The Post Bulletin’s Matthew Stolle wrote that winning the endorsement for the regular election “would have given the winner bragging rights and prominence as the special election approaches.”

A candidate needed to receive support from at least 60% of the delegates in order to receive the endorsement. State Rep. Jeremy Munson came the closest with 55% after leading the field in all seven rounds. Brad Finstad, a former state representative and U.S. Department of Agriculture official in the Trump Administration, came in second with 35%.

During the convention, Munson also announced an endorsement from U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Paul joins other members of Congress, including Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Freedom Caucus chairman Scott Perry (R-Pa.), in supporting Munson.

Finstad has endorsements from members of Minnesota’s congressional delegation, including Reps. Michelle Fischbach (R) and Pete Stauber (R). Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.), the Republican leader of the House Committee on Agriculture, also endorsed Finstad.

Other candidates running in the primary with past or present experience in politics include former Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s (R) wife and former state GOP chairwoman, Jennifer Carnahan, and state Rep. Nels Pierson.

The 1st District also has an upcoming special Republican primary using the old district lines to fill the remainder of Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s (R) term. Hagedorn died on Feb. 17. Ten candidates are running in the special Republican primary on May 24. The special general election is on Aug. 9. 

The regular primary election is also on Aug. 9. The filing deadline for the regular election is May 31.

2020 election conflict in spotlight at first Georgia gubernatorial debate 

Gubernatorial candidate David Perdue opened the first GOP primary debate on April 24 with, “First off folks, let me be very clear tonight. The election of 2020 was rigged and stolen.”

In the exchanges that followed, Perdue detailed his criticisms of incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp’s handling of the state’s 2020 election results. Kemp defended his actions, saying Perdue was blaming others for his own election loss in the January 2021 U.S. Senate runoff.

Kemp affirmed Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s (R) certification of the 2020 election results after two statewide recounts.

Perdue said Kemp didn’t investigate claims of voter fraud, didn’t call a special session of the legislature to investigate the election, and didn’t stop a consent decree. Perdue said the consent decree “invalidated all voter ID law … and allowed fraudulent ballots to be accepted into the race.”

The consent decree referred to a settlement that Raffensperger, the Georgia Democratic Party, and others not including Kemp signed in March 2020. The decree details a procedure for reviewing absentee ballot envelope signatures and states that election officials must give voters notice of and opportunity to cure rejected ballots either within three business days or by the next business day if the ballot is “rejected on or after the second Friday prior to Election Day.”

Kemp said that he “followed the law and the constitution,” that his office referred fraud allegations it thought had merit to authorities that have subpoena powers, and that he didn’t have anything to do with the consent decree. Kemp also said, “I didn’t say there wasn’t problems in this election. Look, I was as frustrated as anybody else. … But the point is a special session would have done nothing to solve this problem.” 

Perdue and Kemp are among five candidates in the May 24 GOP primary. They were the only two to meet WSB-TV’s debate inclusion threshold of receiving at least 10% support in the average of seven independent polls.

Donations, opposition ads increase in Illinois gubernatorial primary

State Sen. Darren Bailey’s Illinois gubernatorial campaign got a big donation last week, and recent opposition ads against him and challenger Richard Irvin highlight past statements from each candidate.

Republican donor Richard Uihlein gave Bailey’s campaign $2.5 million on April 20. Uihlein also gave $1 million to Bailey’s campaign in February and $1 million to the People Who Play by the Rules PAC in March. The PAC recently aired an ad opposing Irvin, mayor of Aurora.

The Chicago Tribune’s Rick Pearson reported that Uihlein’s first donation to Bailey’s campaign came shortly after Citadel founder Ken Griffin donated $20 million to Irvin. 

According to The Hill’s Reid Wilson, the 2018 Illinois gubernatorial election was the “most expensive gubernatorial campaign in American history,” with current incumbent J.B. Pritzker (D) spending $175 million and then-incumbent Bruce Rauner (R) spending $79 million.    

On April 18, the People Who Play by the Rules PAC released an ad quoting Irvin saying in March 2021, “I support Black Lives Matter strongly and passionately.” The ad’s narrator says, “Black Lives Matter promotes looting our cities, defunding the police, and deconstructing the nuclear family.” 

Irvin’s campaign website says he “defeated the local ‘Defund the Police’ movement” while mayor of Aurora and “opposed the criminals and looters who damaged property and harmed cities during the riots in 2020. … And he made sure the law-breakers were arrested.” In his January campaign launch video, Irvin said, “I believe that all lives matter. Every family should be safe.”

On April 20, Irvin’s campaign began airing an ad that shows Bailey saying in March 2022 that he “might have voted for Biden.” The ad’s narrator says, “True conservatives don’t vote for Biden. Darren Bailey did.” 

In an April 7 video, Bailey said, “In 2008, conservative Rush Limbaugh, myself, and thousands of other Republicans helped bring chaos to the Democratic primary to help Republicans in November. … I’m a lifelong Republican who has never supported a Democrat.” Bailey has also said he voted in the Democratic presidential primary in 2008 “to make sure that Obama and Hillary didn’t get elected.”

The primary is on June 28. 

Competitiveness data: Mississippi and Montana  

Montana’s filing deadline for congressional and state candidates was March 14. Congressional candidates in Mississippi had until March 1 to file. Mississippi is not holding state legislative elections in 2022. 

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Montana

Mississippi

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

April 28, 2022

In this issue: President Biden makes first 2022 congressional endorsement and Utah Democrats back independent McMullin

President Biden’s first congressional endorsement of 2022: Kurt Schrader in OR-05

On April 23, President Joe Biden (D) endorsed incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the May 17 Democratic primary for Oregon’s 5th Congressional District. It’s Biden’s first congressional endorsement of 2022. 

Biden said, “We don’t always agree, but when it has mattered most, Kurt has been there for me. … And in doing so, he has helped to pass much of my agenda into law—making a huge difference in the lives of the Oregonians he represents and all of America.”

Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an attorney and board member of the Jefferson County Education Service District, is challenging Schrader in the primary. McLeod-Skinner tweeted, “I respect Biden’s work to tackle Covid-19 & rebuild our economy but I have to disagree with the President here. Schrader took over $1 million from Big Pharma & other corporate donors—and then voted against Oregonians. We need a leader in Congress who will finally fight for us.”

McLeod-Skinner has criticized Schrader’s voting record more broadly: “When he does vote with Democrats, it is often after working to water-down the original ideas.” 

In December 2020, Schrader was one of two House Democrats to vote against a plan to send every American a $2,000 stimulus check. Schrader also voted against an initial version of the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill that Congress passed in March 2021, saying members “were not allowed or encouraged to offer amendments.” Schrader voted for the final bill. 

Schrader said his voting record reflects the partisan composition of his district. “This is not an easy district to run in — 40% of the folks have told both parties ‘I’m not interested.’ They’re non-affiliated. So I have to bridge that gap between the far right and the far left (to) represent this district. … We forget that’s our job — representation, not being a party ideologue. I am representing this district and proud to have done so for the last 10 years.”

Redistricting after the 2020 census changed the 5th District’s boundaries. According to data from Daily Kos, 47% of the population in the new 5th District comes from the old 5th District. Earlier this year, Democratic party leaders in Deschutes, Linn, Marion, and Clackamas counties—where about 90% of voters in the new district live—endorsed McLeod-Skinner (D).

According to FiveThirtyEight, the district has a Democratic lean of D+3, compared to the old district’s D+4 lean. 

Utah Democrats endorse independent Evan McMullin for U.S. Senate

The Democratic Party of Utah voted 57%-43% not to nominate a candidate for U.S. Senate at its convention Saturday, instead backing Evan McMullin, an independent running for the seat. 

This means there will be no Democrat on the ballot. Candidates in Utah qualify for the ballot through a convention vote or petitions, and no Democrats qualified via petition. Democrat Kael Weston sought the convention nomination. 

Supporters of the party’s decision included former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams (D), who served in the House from 2019 to 2021.

The party’s endorsement came one week after the United Utah Party endorsed McMullin at its state convention. This was the first time since the party’s establishment in 2017 it voted to endorse a non-member. 

McMullin, a former operations officer with the Central Intelligence Agency and policy advisor to House Republicans, ran for president in 2016 as an independent. He secured ballot access in 11 states and received more than 700,000 votes, including 21.5% of the vote in Utah. McMullin said Monday that if elected, he would not caucus with either party.

Incumbent Sen. Mike Lee (R) faces three Republican primary challengers. Lee has said he voted for McMullin for president in 2016.

In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) defeated Joe Biden (D) 58% to 38% in Utah. Democrats haven’t won a Utah Senate race since 1970. An independent has never held the office in the state.

John Fetterman rejects progressive label in Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a candidate for U.S. Senate, rejected the term progressive to describe his views in recent interviews with CNN and Jewish Insider.

CNN reported:

A staunch backer of labor unions, Fetterman supports at least a $15 minimum wage, legal marijuana, universal health care and Black Lives Matter while calling climate change “an existential threat.” But he rejects the notion that he is some kind of liberal.

“I don’t mean to nitpick, but I wouldn’t categorize myself as progressive,” Fetterman told CNN. “I consider myself a Democrat that’s running on the same platform of ideas that every other Democrat in this race is running on.”

In an interview with the Jewish Insider, Fetterman said he hadn’t encountered concerns that he’s critical of Israel throughout his campaign, “I’m not really a progressive in that sense. … Our campaign is based on core Democratic values and principles, and always has been, and there is no daylight between myself and these kinds of unwavering commitments to Israel’s security.” Fetterman said he opposed the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement and votes from some House members against funding for Israel’s Iron Dome defense system last year.

Fetterman and candidates state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta and U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb expressed similar views on Israel during an April 14 forum, each saying they supported security funding for Israel. 

Writing about policy disagreements between those three candidates, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso said that only Kenyatta supports a moratorium on new fracking sites and abolishing the Electoral College. Lamb is the only candidate who opposes federal recreational marijuana legalization, instead supporting state and local decriminalization along with legalized medical marijuana. Fetterman has made recreational marijuana legalization a key issue.

Earlier this month, Lamb said of moderate/progressive comparisons between himself and Fetterman, “I think those labels don’t really mean a whole lot at the end of the day. …  I’m a Democrat that represents an area where there’s more Republicans than Democrats, and I’ve been successful at that because people felt I was working hard for them and … not so much ideological.”

In related news, the super PAC Penn Progress recently released a revised version of an ad that initially called Fetterman a “self-described socialist.” The new ad says Fetterman “sought the Democratic Socialists’ endorsement,” which he did in 2017. Fetterman said in a Pittsburgh DSA questionnaire, “I don’t consider myself a socialist.” He did not receive the endorsement.

The primary is May 17.

Rep. G.K. Butterfield endorses Davis in N.C.-01 primary

On April 25, retiring incumbent Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D) endorsed Don Davis in the Democratic primary for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District. Butterfield has represented the 1st District since 2004. 

Davis, a U.S. Air Force veteran and former mayor, has served in the state Senate since 2013, in addition to one previous term from 2009 to 2011. Davis is running against former state Sen. Erica Smith, Jullian Bishop Sr., and Jason Spriggs in the primary.  

Butterfield said, “Don has the legislative experience and is prepared to fight for the Democratic agenda of empowering America’s families and communities. I’m confident Don Davis will fight to protect voting rights, provide a safety net for those who have been left behind due to the pandemic and advocate for public-private partnerships to build much-needed infrastructure in the 1st District.” Butterfield also said, “I’m completely satisfied Don Davis can be the strongest Democrat to beat the strongest Republican in the general election.”

Spectrum News 1’s Reuben Jones said, “Butterfield’s endorsement may speak to the debate happening nationally in the Democratic Party. … The question is whether [the district’s voters] will be more moderate or more progressive Democrats.” 

Smith said, “Voters don’t care about labels. … I’m running on a survivor’s agenda that delivers an increase in living [sic] wage for workers. … I’m center left, and I’m excited about the progressive values and the progressives [sic] voices we are running on, because we know it will produce true structural change.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is among Smith’s endorsers. Smith served in the state Senate from 2015 to 2020 and ran for U.S. Senate in 2020, losing the primary to Cal Cunningham (D) 57%-35%.

The primary is May 17.

Ohio gubernatorial candidates sharpen criticisms of one another

On April 20, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley criticized former Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley at a gubernatorial primary forum. The same day, Cranley released an ad comparing what he called Cincinnati’s comeback and Dayton’s decline during each candidate’s mayoral tenures.

Cleveland.com’s Jeremy Pelzer reported that Whaley “accused Cranley of overstating the financial benefits of his marijuana legalization plan, again criticized his past opposition to abortion, and said it was time for Democrats to nominate someone besides a ‘moderate white man’ for governor” at the Columbus Metropolitan Club forum.

Cranley said his marijuana legalization plan would bring 30,000 jobs and that he’d use resulting tax revenue for initiatives such as expanding high-speed wifi access. Cranley also said he now supports abortion access. Cranley said he was more likely to win the general election and “whether either of us are men or women is out of our control. But what is in our control is how we govern our state.” 

Cranley’s most recent campaign ad said he was better equipped to lead the state’s recovery. A narrator said, “Under John Cranley, Cincinnati has made a real comeback. More jobs, higher wages, a city moving forward. While under Nan Whaley, Dayton has continued to decline even more than Mike Dewine’s Ohio.” The ad cited a WCPO-TV headline, “Cincinnati is growing more quickly than Akron, Cleveland and Dayton.”

Whaley’s campaign representative said, “Attacking a major Ohio city and its residents is one ‘strategy’ for attempting to gain relevance in a primary you’re clearly losing. … Voters know better than to fall for these self-serving attacks from a desperate millionaire who is focused on himself, not Ohio families.” 

The primary is May 3.

Competitiveness data: Mississippi and Montana  

Montana’s filing deadline for congressional and state candidates was March 14. Congressional candidates in Mississippi had until March 1 to file. Mississippi is not holding state legislative elections in 2022. 

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Montana

Mississippi

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.