Tag: primaries
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DNC votes to approve new early presidential primary calendar, uncertainties remain
The Democratic National Committee approved a new set of early presidential primary states on February 4. The plan sets South Carolina as the first primary state on February 3, 2024, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada on February 6, Georgia on February 13, and Michigan on February 27. In 2020, the early primary states were…
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President Joe Biden (D) holds narrow lead in PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market
As of January 3, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows incumbent Joe Biden (D) holding a narrow lead at $0.33, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.32, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.16. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. Trump is the only candidate of this group…
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A look at contested state legislative primaries in Massachusetts
Massachusetts has 44 contested state legislative primaries this year, 11% of the total number of possible primaries, and a 19% increase from 2020. A primary is contested when more candidates file to run than there are nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose. Of the 44 contested primaries, there are 40 for Democrats…
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Murkowski, Tshibaka, Chesbro, and Kelley advance to the general election in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race
Nineteen candidates ran in the top-four Senate primary in Alaska on August 16, 2022. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), Patricia Chesbro (D), and Buzz Kelley (R) advanced to the general election. This was the first time the top-four primary was used in a Senate race since Alaska voters approved the concept in 2020.…
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Ryan defeats Molinaro in New York’s 19th Congressional District special election
Pat Ryan (D) defeated Marc Molinaro (R) in the special election for New York’s 19th Congressional District on Aug. 23, 2022. Ryan received 51% of the vote to Molinaro’s 49%. Former incumbent Antonio Delgado (D) resigned from Congress in May after New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) selected him as lieutenant governor. Ryan will serve…
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Nadler defeats Maloney in final incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary
U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler defeated U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Suraj Patel, and Ashmi Sheth in the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District on Aug. 23, 2022. Nadler received 55% of the vote to Maloney’s 24%, followed by Patel with 19%. This race was the last of six primaries featuring two U.S. House incumbents…
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4.8% of state legislative incumbents who filed for re-election have lost in primaries
So far this year, 202 state legislative incumbents—57 Democrats and 145 Republicans—have lost to primary challengers. Across the 42 states that have held primaries, 4.8% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, an elevated level of incumbent losses compared to previous cycles. These totals include data from both legislative chambers in Florida, state Senate races in…
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Preliminary results from Alaska’s top-four U.S. House primary
A top-four primary took place on Aug. 16 in Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District to determine which four candidates will run in the general election on Nov. 8. As of 1:00 a.m. ET on Aug. 17, with 61% of results reported, Mary Peltola (D) led with 34.5% of the vote, followed by Sarah Palin (R) with…
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Missouri state legislative incumbents lost in primaries at an increased rate
Seven state legislative incumbents—four Democrats and three Republicans—lost to primary challengers on August 2. This represents 5.3% of incumbents who filed for re-election, the largest number and highest rate of incumbent primary defeats in the state in five election cycles. A list of incumbents defeated, all of whom were first elected to office within the…
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Wyoming sees most U.S. House candidates since 2016
The filing deadline for candidates running for Congress in Wyoming this year was May 27, 2022. Eight candidates are running for Wyoming’s At-Large U.S. House district, including three Democrats and five Republicans. That’s three more than the five candidates who ran in 2020 and in 2018. Here are some other highlights from this year’s filings:…