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The Runoff Report: With Ossoff and Warnock wins, Democrats will control the Senate

In today’s final regular edition of The Runoff Report, we bring you the latest results and analysis of the Georgia Senate runoffs. Originally intended for yesterday, Jan. 6, we postponed the edition following the protests and riots surrounding Congress’ certification of the presidential election. For more, see today’s edition of The Transition Tracker.

Democrats win control of the Senate

Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate following Georgia’s two runoff elections on Tuesday. Jon Ossoff (D) defeated David Perdue (R) in the regular runoff election. Raphael Warnock (D) defeated Kelly Loeffler (R) in the special runoff election. Georgia’s last Democratic senator, Zell Miller, left office in 2005.

In the regular runoff election, Ossoff had 50.4% of the vote to Perdue’s 49.6% as of Thursday morning. Ossoff will be the state’s first Jewish senator. 

Warnock won with 50.8% of the vote to incumbent Kelly Loeffler’s (R) 49.2% as of Thursday morning. Warnock will be the first Black U.S. senator from Georgia. 

Once sworn in after runoff results are certified, Ossoff and Warnock will bring the Democratic caucus to 50 members, splitting the chamber with 50 Republicans. The vice president—Kamala Harris (D) as of Jan. 20—has the tie-breaking vote in the chamber. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) has until Jan. 22 to certify runoff results.

Perdue was elected to the Senate in 2014, and his term ended Jan. 3. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler after Johnny Isakson (R) resigned at the end of 2019 for health reasons. Once sworn in, Warnock will serve the remaining two years of the term Isakson won in 2016.

Democrats last controlled the Senate from 2007 to 2015. Democrats currently hold a majority of 222-211 in the U.S. House. 

Turnout

Around 4.5 million people voted in Georgia’s runoffs, compared to 5 million during the November election. That’s a turnout decrease of 10%. 

Before this year, Georgia had held two runoffs for U.S. Senate: one in 2008 and one in 1992. In 2008, turnout between the general and runoff elections decreased by 43%. In 1992, turnout decreased by 44%.

The New York Times reported the following estimated runoff turnout breakdown:

Over all, turnout reached a remarkable 92 percent of 2020 general election levels in precincts carried by Mr. Biden in November, compared with 88 percent of general election levels in the precincts carried by Mr. Trump. These tallies include Upshot estimates of the remaining uncounted vote by precinct, and it suggests that nearly all of the Democratic gains since the November election can be attributed to the relatively stronger Democratic turnout.

A majority of Georgia’s Democratic voters are Black — they are roughly 30 percent of the overall electorate — and it was these voters who drove the stronger Democratic turnout. Over all, turnout reached 93 percent of 2020 levels in precincts where Black voters represented at least 80 percent of the electorate. In comparison, turnout fell to 87 percent of general election levels in white working-class precincts.

Pivot and Reverse-Pivot County voting

Last month, we looked at voting patterns in Georgia’s Pivot and Reverse-Pivot counties. Here’s how they voted in the Senate runoffs compared to the Senate races in November based on unofficial results available Thursday morning. Republican candidates won all Pivot Counties, and Democratic candidates won all Reverse-Pivot Counties. Below, we’re focusing on differences in the number of votes between November and January in each county.

Georgia’s five Pivot Counties voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, then Donald Trump (R) in 2016. All five voted for Trump again in 2020. 

Georgia’s three Reverse-Pivot Counties voted for John McCain (R) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012 and then for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016. All three supported Biden (D) in 2020.

The middle two columns show vote totals from the runoff election. The difference between runoff votes and general election votes are in parentheses. For example: Ossoff received 624 votes in Baker County in the runoff. That was 24 fewer votes than he received in the county in November.

The column on the right shows the difference between votes lost per county. Colors show which party lost fewer votes. For example, in Baker County, Ossoff lost 39 fewer votes than Perdue.



The Runoff Report: Trump, Biden in Georgia on eve of election

Happy Election Day! Follow along with us live tonight here as results roll in.

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

Voting on Jan. 5

Some answers to questions you may have about voting in the runoffs:

When are polls open on Tuesday?

  • From 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Anyone standing in line at a polling location at 7 p.m. will be allowed to vote.

Can I register at the polls?

  • No. The registration deadline was Dec. 7.

Do I need to bring ID?

  • Yes. Voters must present photo ID at the polls. Click here for a list of accepted forms of ID.

Can I still submit my absentee ballot?

  • Yes, a voter may still place an absentee ballot in a ballot dropbox in their county. Click here for information on finding a ballot drop-off location. County election officials must receive absentee ballots by 7 p.m. today. 

Click here to find your polling location, check absentee ballot status, check registration status, find a sample ballot, and more.

Regular election updates

David Perdue remains in quarantine. He participated in several media interviews on Jan. 4. On Fox & Friends this morning, Perdue said of Ossoff that “most of his money comes from big tech out in California. You better bet he’s going to be in their deep pocket as we turn around and try to hold big tech accountable for their vagaries over the last 10 years. And also, when we stand up to China, ask this young man what he’s going to do to the people who put money in his pocket the last two years.” Perdue also tweeted that he urged senators to object to the Electoral College certification process. Perdue’s term ended on Jan. 3, so he will not be able to participate on Jan. 6.

Jon Ossoff campaigned in Conyers and Augusta on Jan. 4. Ossoff tweeted a video of him saying, “When the president of the United States calls up Georgia’s election officials and tries to intimidate them to change the result of the election, to disenfranchise Georgia voters, to disenfranchise Black voters in Georgia who delivered this state for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, that is a direct attack on our democracy. And If David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler had one piece of steel in their spines, one shred of integrity, they would be out here defending Georgia voters from that kind of assault.”

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election updates

Kelly Loeffler campaigned in Augusta, Columbus, Savannah, Albany, and Valdosta on Jan. 4. Loeffler also announced she would support the objection to the Electoral College certification process on Jan. 6, saying, “I will vote to give President Trump & the American people the fair hearing they deserve.” 

Raphael Warnock campaigned in Marietta and Atlanta today, according to a campaign email. He tweeted on Jan. 4, “Unelected Senator @KLoeffler wants to undermine your vote and overturn Georgia’s election. Let’s show her that Georgia voters will not be silenced or ignored. Tomorrow, let’s vote her out.”

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

Overall campaign updates

  • President Donald Trump spoke at a rally in Dalton on Monday night. Loeffler was present, while Perdue was still quarantining. Trump said, “Everything that we achieved together is on the line tomorrow. … Our fight to take back our country from the big donors, the big media and the horrendous big tech giants.” Trump said Loeffler and Perdue would protect Social Security, Medicare, and patients with pre-existing conditions. He also discussed his claims about election fraud in the state’s presidential election while urging Republican voters to vote in the runoff: “The only way to combat the Democratic fraud is to flood your polling places with a historic tidal wave of Republican voters tomorrow.”
  • President-elect Joe Biden held a rally with Warnock and Ossoff in Atlanta. Biden said Ossoff and Warnock would help deliver $2,000 relief checks to most Americans. “If you’re like millions of Americans all across this country, you need the money. You need the help and you need it now. Now, look, Georgia, there’s no one in America with more power to make that happen than you. … The power is literally in your hands. By electing Jon and the reverend, you can break the gridlock that has gripped Washington.” Biden also said, “It’s not hyperbole, you can change America.” He said of the presidential election, “Your voices were heard. Your votes were counted. The will of the people prevailed.”

Today: Recapping The Runoff Report‘s daily features

On Election Day, beef up your election knowledge with the following resources from previous Runoff Report editions.

Candidates in depth

Influencer profiles

Nov. 3 vote breakdowns

Continually updated features

Historical context

Miscellaneous



The Runoff Report: Pre-runoff election weekend filled with campaign stops, interviews

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

Voting on Jan. 5

Some answers to questions you may have about voting in the runoffs:

When are polls open on Tuesday?

  • From 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Anyone standing in line at a polling location at 7 p.m. will be allowed to vote.

Can I register at the polls?

  • No. The registration deadline was Dec. 7.

Do I need to bring ID?

  • Yes. Voters must present photo ID at the polls. Click here for a list of accepted forms of ID.

Can I still submit my absentee ballot?

  • Yes, a voter may still place an absentee ballot in a ballot dropbox in their county. Click here for information on finding a ballot drop-off location. County election officials must receive absentee ballots by 7 p.m. on Election Day. 

Regular election updates

David Perdue entered quarantine on Dec. 31 after someone he had close contact with tested positive for COVID-19. Former Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), David’s cousin, made several campaign stops on his behalf over the weekend. David Perdue gave several media interviews, including with Fox & Friends and Breitbart News Radio on Jan. 2. On Jan. 3, Perdue’s term in the Senate ended, and the seat will be vacant until the runoff results are certified.

Jon Ossoff held a virtual get-out-the-vote event with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Jan. 3. Ossoff held a rally in Macon and other campaign events in Eatonton, Stone Mountain, Athens, and Savannah on Jan. 2. Ossoff held a “Swag Bag Giveaway” event in East Point on Jan. 1.

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election updates

Kelly Loeffler campaigned in Cherokee County on Jan. 3. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) joined Loeffler to campaign in McDonough. On Jan 2, Loeffler campaigned in Fayette, Carroll, Gwinnett, Jefferson, and Forsyth counties. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Public Service Commissioner Bubba McDonald (R), who is also in a runoff on Tuesday, joined Loeffler in Forsyth County. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) appeared at an early vote concert Loeffler hosted on Dec. 31.

Raphael Warnock is holding an event in Riverdale today, according to a campaign email. Warnock campaigned in Valdosta, Albany, and Brunswick on Jan. 2. Warnock held events in LaGrange, Columbus, Culloden, Macon, Dublin, and Upson on Jan. 1. 

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

Overall campaign updates

  • Ossoff and Warnock will attend a rally with President-elect Joe Biden in Atlanta today.
  • President Donald Trump is holding a rally for Perdue and Loeffler in Dalton tonight.
  • Ossoff and Warnock campaigned together in Augusta this morning. 
  • Vice President Mike Pence held a “Faith Community Call To Action” event in Milner today.
  • Vice President-elect Kamala Harris held a rally with Ossoff and Warnock in Savannah on Jan. 3.

Today: Candidate’s key messages

Here’s a summary of what the candidates have been saying about themselves and their opponents ahead of the runoffs.

Regular election

David Perdue

What he says about himself:

Perdue says he is an outsider and that he first ran for the Senate because he wanted to use his business background to improve the economy. Perdue says his record in the Senate includes helping bring federal COVID-19 relief funds to Georgia, fully fund the Port of Savannah, reverse regulations and create jobs, rebuild the military, protect people with pre-existing conditions, and improve medical care for veterans. 

What he says about Ossoff:

Perdue has said Ossoff has a socialist agenda. Perdue says Ossoff shares Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D) goals of defunding the police, giving D.C. statehood, and granting voting rights to people in the country without legal permission. Perdue also says Ossoff has business ties to communist China.

Jon Ossoff

What he says about himself:

Ossoff has emphasized his background as an investigative journalist, saying he has worked to fight corruption. Ossoff says he would work for a public option in healthcare, direct stimulus payments in response to COVID-19, a new Civil Rights Act and new Voting Rights Act, a $15 minimum wage, clean energy production, and overturning Citizens United.

What he says about Perdue:

Ossoff has criticized Perdue’s stock trades amid the pandemic. Ossoff has also said Perdue has not been accessible enough to constituents and criticized him for not participating in the runoff debate on Dec. 6. Ossoff also said, “The health insurance, pharmaceutical, and fossil fuel industries have bought the allegiance of my opponent.”

Ossoff filled out Ballotpedia’s Candidate Survey. Click here to view his responses.

Special election

Kelly Loeffler

What she says about herself:

Loeffler says she has lived the American dream, growing up on a farm, waitressing her way through college, and becoming a businesswoman. Loeffler says she has created jobs in the state and is “the only candidate qualified to help rebuild our economy.” Loeffler says she has delivered for Georgians throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, bringing relief funds to families, hospitals, and businesses.

What she says about Warnock:

Loeffler has called Warnock a radical liberal and Chuck Schumer’s “agent of change.” Loeffler said Warnock supports increasing taxes, opening borders, and socializing healthcare. Loeffler has also criticized past comments Warnock made about the military and police.

Raphael Warnock

What he says about himself:

Warnock emphasizes that he grew up with 11 siblings and highlights his work as senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King Jr. was pastor in the 1960s. Warnock says he has worked for voting rights and affordable healthcare and that he would continue that work in the Senate. Warnock says he’ll look out for ordinary people because he knows what it’s like to be an ordinary person.

What he says about Loeffler:

Warnock has criticized Loeffler’s stock trades amid the pandemic and says she only looks out for herself. Warnock also says Loeffler wants to take healthcare away from people in the middle of the pandemic and would not protect coverage for people with pre-existing conditions.



The Runoff Report: Loeffler, Perdue announce support for $2,000 relief checks

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

Regular election updates

David Perdue tweeted today, “President @realdonaldtrump is right — I support this push for $2,000 in direct relief for the American people.” On Dec. 28, Perdue campaigned in Greene County, Milledgeville, Sandersville, Laurens County, and Eastman.

Jon Ossoff appeared on MSNBC’s The ReidOut Monday night, where he called on Perdue to commit to voting for $2,000 relief checks. 

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election updates

Kelly Loeffler appeared on Fox & Friends this morning and said regarding $2,000 relief checks, “I’ve stood by the president 100% of the time. I’m proud to do that, and I’ve said, absolutely, we need to get relief to Americans now, and I will support that.” Loeffler also said congressional Democrats have held up COVID-19 relief. Loeffler campaigned in Watkinsville on Dec. 28. 

Raphael Warnock held a drive-in rally in Atlanta this morning, according to a campaign email. Warnock also released an ad saying Loeffler criticizes him because she’s afraid “that you understand how she’s used her position in the Senate to enrich herself and others like her.” Warnock said he’d serve in the Senate “inspired by the words of Dr. King, who said that ‘Life’s most persistent and urgent question is: What are you doing for others?'”

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

Overall campaign updates

  • Stacey Abrams is hosting a virtual fundraiser for Ossoff and Warnock featuring actor Julia Louis-Dreyfus tonight.
  • Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) campaigned for Loeffler and Perdue in Savannah.
  • Loeffler and Perdue held a joint campaign event in Greensboro.

Today: One of the top-spending Republican super PACs

In November, the Senate Leadership Fund formed Peachtree PAC, a super PAC focusing on Georgia’s runoff elections. 

Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law said, “The fate of our country hangs in the balance in Georgia. This new activity through Peachtree PAC will articulate the stakes couldn’t be higher as the future of freedom is on the ballot.”

On Dec. 16, CBS News reported that Peachtree PAC planned to spend $40 million on the Senate runoff races. As of Dec. 28, Open Secrets reported the group had spent $26.5 million, equally divided between opposing Ossoff and opposing Warnock.

View an ad from Peachtree PAC here.

Click here for yesterday’s feature on Georgia Honor and The Georgia Way, two Democratic super PACs created by the Senate Majority PAC.



The Runoff Report: GA runoff candidates weigh in on COVID relief bill

Note: The Runoff Report will be back Monday, Dec. 28. Happy holidays!

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

On Dec. 21, Congress passed a $900 billion spending bill containing COVID-19 relief provisions. The bill includes:

  • $325 billion in aid for businesses, including more funding for the Paycheck Protection Program
  • $166 billion for direct payments, including $600 for most individuals and $1,200 for most couples
  • $120 billion to temporarily give people on unemployment a $300 weekly supplement
  • $1.4 trillion in funding for government agencies through September

Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue voted to pass the bill. 

President Donald Trump has not signed the bill as of press time. He tweeted a video Tuesday night calling for Congress to increase direct payments to $2,000 for individuals and $4,000 for couples and to “get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items from this legislation.”

Runoff candidate statements about the spending bill, along with other campaign news, are below.

Regular election updates

David Perdue tweeted an ad saying Ossoff “opposed past COVID relief and encouraged Democrats to block additional aid for months, but Sen. Perdue never gave up. Perdue again delivered real, meaningful help for Georgians: $900 billion in new COVID relief, direct checks to Georgians, critical funding for vaccine distribution, small businesses, public schools, and help for folks out of work.”

Perdue also campaigned in Clarke, Jackson, Barrow, Oconee, and Morgan counties on Dec. 22.

Jon Ossoff tweeted, “Even @realdonaldtrump says $600 is a joke. @Perduesenate, do better.” Ossoff said in an interview with MSNBC that he would have voted for the bill because people need help, but that the direct payments are not enough and that Republicans in the Senate, including Perdue, held up relief. Ossoff said, “We need additional, substantial, direct COVID relief, and the only way we’ll get it is by winning these two Senate races in Georgia.”

Ossoff also spoke at Morris Brown College on Dec. 22. He said he would work to secure funding for historically black colleges and universities if elected.

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election updates

Kelly Loeffler tweeted, “We just secured an additional $900 billion in targeted relief, more PPP funding, and extended unemployment benefits by 11 weeks. @ReverendWarnock has done NOTHING to help Georgians during this pandemic except peddle lies and play politics.”

Loeffler also released three new ads. One ad focuses on Loeffler’s plan for investments in minority communities, and the others focus on COVID-19 relief.

Loeffler’s campaign released a statement in response to police body camera footage aired on Fox News on Dec. 22 showing Warnock’s ex-wife making allegations about his behavior. In March, she claimed Warnock had run over her foot with a car. Warnock was not charged, and he has denied the allegation. 

The Loeffler campaign statement read, “Raphael Warnock’s ex-wife Ouleye’s allegations are deeply troubling. Domestic abuse is a very serious issue, and this new body cam footage is certainly difficult to watch. Georgians deserve answers to these very serious allegations, and his ex-wife’s voice deserves to be heard.”  

Raphael Warnock tweeted the following:

“Billionaire @KLoeffler thinks $600 will cover your rent, groceries, and hospital bills.” 

“When we take back the Senate, @ossoff and I will pass $1200 stimulus checks.”

“If Democrats controlled the Senate, aid for essential workers in local governments — firefighters, law enforcement, teachers — would be in the COVID relief bill. Republicans refused to vote for a bill with that aid in it. It’s time to fire @KLoeffler and @Perduesenate.”

Warnock campaign representative Michael Brewer said in response to the police body camera footage that Loeffler “spent her entire campaign attacking Reverend Warnock and has now stooped to a new low of attacking his family. … While she continues to wage her pathetic and dishonest campaign, Reverend Warnock will keep fighting for the people of Georgia who Kelly Loeffler left behind.”

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

Overall campaign updates

  • Ossoff, Warnock, and public service commissioner runoff candidate Daniel Blackman (D) held a game night event on Twitch.

Today: Runoff voter turnout so far

The following data comes from GeorgiaVotes.com. Ryan Anderson works in data and marketing for the Atlanta firm Bounteous. GeorgiaVotes.com is his personal project.

  • 1,884,692 people had voted in Georgia’s runoff elections as of Dec. 22. That includes:
  • 1,205,483 early in-person votes 
  • 679,209 mail ballots 
  • Runoff turnout so far is 6% lower than at this point in the general election.
    • Turnout is 3% higher for in-person votes
    • Turnout is 19% lower for mail ballots 
  • 57,429 (3%) of those who have cast runoff ballots so far did not vote in the Nov. 3 general election

GeorgiaVotes.com also provides data on runoff turnout as a percentage of total general election turnout by county. We mapped it out. View the map on our site here, where you can hover over each county to see turnout percentages. 

Click here for early voting locations.



The Runoff Report: All about GA runoff polling

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

SurveyUSA released new poll results for the regular and special runoff elections. The poll had a credibility interval (similar to a margin of error, but for nonprobability samples) of +/- 5.1 percentage points. 

Regular election poll results

The regular election poll showed Jon Ossoff with 51% and David Perdue with 46%. The 5-percentage-point margin is just within the poll’s credibility interval. A late November poll from SurveyUSA showed Ossoff with 50% and Perdue with 48%. 

Some demographic breakdowns from the more recent poll:

  • Democrats: 97% Ossoff, 2% Perdue
  • Republicans: 93% Perdue, 5% Ossoff
  • Independents: 53% Ossoff, 34% Perdue
  • White: 67% Perdue, 31% Ossoff
  • Black: 90% Ossoff, 6% Perdue
  • Hispanic: 52% Ossoff, 45% Perdue
  • Loeffler runoff voters: 95% Perdue, 3% Ossoff
  • Warnock runoff voters: 96% Ossoff, 4% Perdue

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election poll results

The special election poll showed Raphael Warnock slightly ahead of Kelly Loeffler, 52%-45%. This was the same result as SurveyUSA’s late November poll. 

Some demographic breakdowns from the more recent poll:

  • Democrats: 97% Warnock, 2% Loeffler
  • Republicans: 92% Loeffler, 5% Warnock
  • Independents: 54% Warnock, 36% Loeffler
  • White: 66% Loeffler, 30% Warnock
  • Black: 90% Warnock, 8% Loeffler
  • Hispanic: 53% Warnock, 45% Loeffler
  • Perdue runoff voters: 94% Loeffler, 4% Warnock
  • Ossoff runoff voters: 96% Warnock, 3% Loeffler

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

A word (or several) on polling

SurveyUSA stated the following caveat along with the results above:

SurveyUSA urges consumers of this research to reflect on how unfamiliar the footing is for anyone attempting to measure what is happening in Georgia as Bulldogs hang Christmas lights during a pandemic and the Republican President is at war with the Republican Governor and the state’s Republican Secretary of State. It is possible that Democrats capture both Senate seats, and Chuck Schumer dances a jig, but it is equally possible Democrats flip neither or just 1 of the seats, in which case Biden inherits a divided, not united legislative branch. Just 18% of Perdue and Loeffler voters have “full confidence” their runoff vote will be counted accurately, compared to 67% of Ossoff and Warnock voters. How this astonishing 4:1 disparity in the very underpinning of Democracy will affect turnout in a pandemic is unknowable.

Politico‘s Steven Shepard wrote that most major pollsters are staying out of the runoffs due partly to the timing of the elections:

With the elections being held on Jan. 5, the final two weeks of the race are coinciding with the Christmas and New Year’s holidays — typically a time when pollsters refrain from calling Americans on the phone. The voters who would answer a telephone poll or participate in an internet survey over the holidays might be meaningfully different from those who wouldn’t, which would skew the results.

Most major public pollsters are choosing not to field surveys over that time period, but the four campaigns don’t have a choice in the matter. The closing stretch of the races represents their final chances to shift resources or make changes to the television and digital advertising — decisions that will be made using multiple data streams, including polling.

SurveyUSA’s two polls are the only ones featured in the “Polls” sections of our runoff election coverage. They are not the only polls released in the races, but they are the ones that meet our inclusion criteria. We do not provide individual coverage of polls that use interactive voice response (IVR) or that do not disclose the questions asked of respondents, among other things. 

We do, however, factor a larger number of polls into the Ballotpedia Power Index (BPI). The index is an election forecasting tool that factors in polling averages from RealClearPolitics and share prices on PredictIt to project the overall chances of each candidate winning election. Click here for the regular election BPI and here for the special election BPI.

Today: Election results in Georgia’s Retained Pivot Counties

Yesterday, we broke down election results in Georgia’s three Reverse-Pivot Counties (those that voted for John McCain (R) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012 and then for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016). Here we highlight Georgia’s Pivot Counties—those that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, then Trump in 2016.

Georgia has five Pivot Counties: Baker, Dooly, Peach, Quitman, and Twiggs. Trump won all five again in 2020, making them Retained Pivot Counties. Obama’s average margin of victory across these counties in 2008 was 5.3 percentage points. In 2020, Trump’s average margin of victory was 8.7 points.

The five counties favored Republican Senate candidates in 2016 and 2020. Sen. Isakson’s (R) average margin of victory in these counties in 2016 was 13.1 percentage points, higher than Trump’s average margin of 5.2 percentage points that year. In 2020, the counties favored Perdue by an average margin of 9.7 percentage points. In the special election—which had 20 candidates, including six Republicans and eight Democrats—the counties favored Republicans by an average 8.8 percentage points.



The Runoff Report: Kamala Harris, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump in Georgia

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

Regular election updates

David Perdue campaigned with Reps.-elect Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) and Young Kim (R-Calif.) in Norcross on Dec. 20. Perdue and Donald Trump Jr. appeared in Bulloch County and Catoosa County Dec. 19. On Dec. 18, Perdue released an ad that said Ossoff lied about being paid by China through a media company and that Ossoff would not hold China accountable.

Jon Ossoff held meet-and-greet events in Bainbridge, Thomasville, Hinesville, and Statesboro Friday and Saturday. Ossoff also released two ads. In one, Ossoff said Perdue has not been accessible to constituents. In the other, Ossoff discussed his support for raising the minimum wage.

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election updates

Kelly Loeffler made campaign stops in Kingsland, Brunswick, and Waycross on Dec. 19. Loeffler campaigned with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Augusta, Demorest, and Evans on Dec. 20. Former Gov. Nathan Deal (R) appeared at the Demorest rally.

Raphael Warnock held a drive-in church service in Macon on Dec. 20, according to a campaign email. Warnock also released a series of ads highlighting campaign stops around the state. The ads feature clips of his speeches and statements from supporters.

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

Overall campaign updates

  • Vice President-elect Kamala Harris (D) was scheduled to headline a rally in Columbus with Ossoff and Warnock early this afternoon. 
  • Ossoff and Warnock held a rally with rapper Common in Garden City on Dec. 19.
  • Loeffler and Perdue are scheduled to campaign with Ivanka Trump today. The candidates also held a rally with Nikki Haley in Forsyth County on Dec. 20. Loeffler and Perdue released a joint ad featuring former University of Georgia and NFL running back Herschel Walker. The three toss around a football while discussing the race as a fight against socialism. 
  • President Donald Trump tweeted that he will return to Georgia on Jan. 4, the day before the runoff elections, to hold a rally supporting Perdue and Loeffler. Trump held a rally in Valdosta on Dec. 5.

Today: Election results in Georgia’s Reverse-Pivot Counties

Three Metro Atlanta counties—Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry—voted for John McCain (R) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012 and then for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016. We call such counties Reverse-Pivot Counties. These three counties in Georgia represent half of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties nationwide. Pivot Counties, on the other hand, voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Trump in 2016. Georgia has five Pivot Counties, which we will take a closer look at later this week.

Since 2008, the presidential margins of victory in the three Reverse-Pivot Counties in Georgia have swung 26.7 percentage points from Republicans to Democrats. In 2008, they voted for the Republican candidate, McCain, by an average margin of 9.0 percentage points. In 2020, they supported the Democratic candidate, Biden, by an average margin of 17.7 percentage points.

Below, we look at how the counties voted in presidential elections since 2008. 

All three of Georgia’s Reverse-Pivot Counties backed Sen. Isakson’s (R) re-election bid in 2016 by an average margin of 5.6 percentage points while favoring Clinton (D) for president. The counties then backed Democrats in the Nov. 3, 2020, Senate elections—by an average margin of 15.5 percentage points in the regular election and 16.6 points in the special. 

The table below shows vote margins for the 2016 and 2020 Senate elections.



The Runoff Report: Nearly 76,000 new voters have registered in Georgia since Nov. 3

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

Regular election updates

David Perdue will hold a rally with Donald Trump Jr. in Ocilla this evening.

Jon Ossoff continued his “Health, Jobs, and Justice” bus tour with stops in Albany and Americus on Thursday.

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election updates

Kelly Loeffler will hold a rally with Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and country music artist Travis Tritt in Smyrna this afternoon. Cruz and Scott will also appear at a Club for Growth Action-sponsored rally directly before the Loeffler event. 

Raphael Warnock appeared on The View Dec. 17. He said Loeffler profited off of stock trades during the pandemic’s early days.

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

Overall campaign updates

  • Presidential advisor Ivanka Trump will headline a series of rallies alongside Loeffler and Perdue Dec. 21. The rallies are set to take place in Milton, Suwanee, and Walton County.
  • Ossoff and Warnock will hold a joint rally Dec. 19 with rapper Common at the Garden City Stadium in Savannah.
  • According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, nearly 76,000 new voters registered in Georgia between the presidential election and the Dec. 7 deadline for runoff participation.

Today: Looking at election forecasters’ runoff projections

What do election forecasters have to say about the Georgia runoffs, and how have these forecasts changed since the general election? 

Before Nov. 3, all three election forecasters Ballotpedia tracks (The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball) had Democrats’ and Republicans’ chances of winning about even in the Georgia Senate races.

All three forecasters rated the Ossoff-Perdue race a toss-up. Two had the Loeffler-Warnock race a toss-up, while Inside Elections said it tilted towards Loeffler.

Since the general election, the ratings change in either contest was Inside Elections’ opinion of the Loeffler-Warnock race, which changed to toss-up. This means all three outlets rate both runoffs as toss-ups.

Gonzales said he changed his ratings because of doubts about historic turnout models:

The assumption that Republicans have a significant advantage in the January races (and thus are significantly favored to hold the Senate majority) is built on the history of runoffs on Georgia (Republicans have won all but one), the assumption that Democratic turnout will dramatically decrease (which was the case before 2018), and perceptions of Georgia as the Republican state it was 20, 10 or even just four years ago. But none of those factors is strong enough this time to determine that there’s a significant advantage for Perdue or Loeffler. 

Ballotpedia reached out to the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball to confirm their post-election race ratings.



The Runoff Report: Where the GA runoff candidates are campaigning most

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

Regular election updates

David Perdue made stops in Musella, Americus, Leesburg, and Cataula Dec. 16.

Jon Ossoff released an ad discussing his work for former Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) and his ideas for a new Civil Rights Act and a new Voting Rights Act.

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election updates

Kelly Loeffler campaigned in Bartow and Paulding counties Dec. 16.

Raphael Warnock will make a campaign stop in Marietta today, according to a campaign email.

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

Overall campaign updates

  • The Ossoff and Warnock campaigns released an ad featuring President-elect Joe Biden saying he will sign a COVID-19 relief package with free testing and vaccination for every American and with small business assistance. Biden said he needs Ossoff and Warnock in the Senate to get it done.
  • Ossoff and Warnock also held a livestream with Alyssa Milano, Leslie Jones, and Misha Collins.
  • Vice President Mike Pence is headlining two “Defend the Majority” rallies today in Columbus and Macon. It’s Pence’s fourth visit to Georgia since the Nov. 3 elections.

Today: Runoff campaign stops by political region

Where are candidates focusing their facetime ahead of the runoff elections?

We thought it would be interesting to consider that question alongside The Washington Post‘s breakdown of the state’s political geography. The Post delineated six political regions in Georgia: Atlanta, Atlanta Burbs, Black Belt, North Georgia, Piedmont, and South Georgia. David Weigel wrote:

Atlanta and its suburbs are bluer than ever; the Black Belt is strongly Democratic, but with some Republican opportunities. North Georgia, South Georgia and the Piedmont region drive any Republican win, and the Senate races may come down to whether loyal conservative voters decide, amid all the noise, to hit the polls again.

Click here to see a map of the regions and more information on each.

We emailed campaigns and pored over social media posts, events pages, and news articles to document campaign stops since the Nov. 3 election. The table below shows the number of individual days we found so far that a candidate held or plans to hold one or more in-person campaign events in a region through Dec. 20. Most-visited regions for each candidate are highlighted in yellow. We’ll update this table on our site each weekday.

Note: Warnock’s campaign sent us a list of campaign events that fell within each of the six political regions. We’re working on obtaining dates for all those stops. Those for which we found dates are included below.



The Runoff Report: Facebook lifts post-election advertising ban for Georgia runoffs

Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate comes down to Georgia’s runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each race and the fight for Senate control.

Regular election updates

David Perdue campaigned in Fayetteville, Newnan, LaGrange, Carrollton, and Dallas Dec. 15. He also released an ad titled, “Man of His Word,” featuring six women discussing his character.

Jon Ossoff is holding a rally in Columbus today.

This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017.

Click here for more coverage of the regular election.

Special election updates

Kelly Loeffler tweeted a video today saying she early-voted and encouraging others to do the same. She campaigned in Catoosa County, Rome, and Woodstock Dec. 15.

Raphael Warnock will be stopping at early voting places in Stockbridge and Jonesboro and holding a rally with volunteers in Clarkston today, his campaign said in an email. 

The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. 

Click here for more coverage of the special election.

Overall campaign updates

  • Club for Growth Action is holding a Save America Tour across Georgia in support of Loeffler and Perdue. The tour kicked off Dec. 11 and ends Dec. 21. Sen.-elect Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Reps.-elect Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C) were in Muscogee County Tuesday and will be in DeKalb County today as part of the tour.
  • At his rally with Ossoff and Warnock in Atlanta Dec. 15, President-elect Joe Biden said, “Come January 5th, you’ve got to vote in record numbers again. Because, yes, the lives of every Georgian still depend on what you do. And, yes, you still need to vote as if your life depends on it. Because it does.”
  • Facebook Product Manager Sarah Schiff announced Dec. 15 that Facebook is lifting its post-election advertising ban for Georgia’s runoffs, starting today. She wrote:

We are maintaining our temporary pause for ads about social issues, elections or politics in the US. However, in recent weeks we’ve heard feedback from experts and advertisers across the political spectrum about the importance of expressing voice and using our tools to reach voters ahead of Georgia’s runoff elections. We agree that our ad tools are an important way for people to get information about these elections. So we have developed a process to allow advertisers to run ads with the purpose of reaching voters in Georgia about Georgia’s runoff elections.

Today: Ballotpedia Power Index

The Ballotpedia Power Index (BPI) is a forecasting tool designed to help readers understand the likelihood of a political event occurring. The BPI combines RealClearPolitics polling averages with market prices on PredictIt, an online stock exchange where users trade bets on election outcomes rather than shares in corporations. To learn more about our BPI methodology, click here.



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