Three states are holding gubernatorial elections in 2023, and four states are holding regularly scheduled legislative elections in eight of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers. As a result, five states’ trifecta status is at stake this year:
Mississippi—one of 22 states with a Republican trifecta,
New Jersey—one of 17 states with a Democratic trifecta, and
Kentucky, Louisiana, and Virginia—three of 11 states with divided government.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both state legislative chambers. Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings estimate the chances of trifectas breaking and forming. Our assessment of gubernatorial races is based on race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. For legislative races, we use the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change control. Both chambers in a state’s legislature are evaluated individually.
New Jersey’s Democratic state government trifecta is moderately vulnerable in 2023, according to this methodology. New Jersey does not hold its gubernatorial election in 2023, but all seats in both state legislative chambers are up for election. If Republicans gain five seats in the Senate or six seats in the House, they will win a majority in one chamber or the other and would break the Democratic trifecta. Democrats will retain their trifecta if they lose fewer than five seats in the state Senate and six seats in the General Assembly. New Jersey will hold legislative elections using districts enacted after the 2020 census for the first time. Democrats have held partisan control of both chambers of the New Jersey legislature since 2004.
Kentucky, Louisiana, and Virginia all have a possibility of becoming Republican trifectas.
In Louisiana, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is term-limited and national election publications rate the race to replace him as Leans Republican. All state legislative seats in Louisiana are up for election, with Republicans having an eight-seat majority in the state Senate and a 20-seat majority in the state House.
Kentucky’s Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is running for re-election. National publications rate that race as Leans Democratic. The last five Kentucky governors—since 1995—have alternated between Democrats and Republicans. Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the Kentucky legislature, and the state does not hold legislative elections until 2024.
Virginia will not hold gubernatorial elections until 2025, and the current governor is Republican Glenn Youngkin. All 140 legislative districts in the state are holding elections. Democrats have a two-seat majority in the state Senate and Republicans have a two-seat majority in the House of Delegates. Virginia, like New Jersey, will hold legislative elections using districts enacted after the 2020 census for the first time.
Mississippi’s Republican trifecta is rated not vulnerable according to this analysis. The governor’s race is rated as Likely Republican and Republicans have a 12-seat majority in the state Senate and a 20-seat majority in the state House.
Trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle.
The 2022 elections resulted in changes to the trifecta status in six states. In Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota, divided governments became Democratic trifectas. In Nevada, the Democratic trifecta became a divided government, and in Arizona, the Republican trifecta became a divided government. Between 2010 and 2022, 79 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
As a result of the 2022 elections, a greater percentage of Americans now live in a Democratic state government trifecta than in a Republican trifecta. Once all newly elected officials take office, 41.7% of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic trifecta, 39.6% in a state with a Republican trifecta, and 18.8% in a state with divided government.
This will be the lowest percentage of Americans living in a Republican trifecta and the highest percentage of Americans living in a Democratic trifecta since at least 2018.
State government trifecta is a term to describe single-party government, when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The 2022 elections resulted in 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 11 states with divided government. The 17 Democratic trifectas are the most since 1993 and the 11 divided governments are the fewest since at least 1992.
Before the election, 41.8% of Americans lived in a state with a Republican trifecta, 33.9% with a Democratic trifecta, and 24.3% in a state with no trifecta.
The table below shows the percentage of Americans living in each type of state going back to before the 2018 elections.
As a result of the 2022 elections, there will be at least 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments where neither party had trifecta control. Alaska’s trifecta status remains unclear. Before the election, Alaska was under divided government.
State government trifecta is a term to describe single-party government, when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Trifecta status changed in six states. In Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota, divided governments became Democratic trifectas. In Nevada, the Democratic trifecta became a divided government. In Arizona, the Republican trifecta became a divided government.
The Democratic gains and Republican loss were the first for each party since the 2019 general elections, when Kentucky went from a Republican trifecta to divided government and Virginia went from divided government to Democratic trifecta.
At the time of the 2022 election, there were 23 Republican trifectas, 14 Democratic trifectas, and 13 divided governments where neither party held trifecta control.
Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D), state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), and three others are running in the general election for governor of Pennsylvania on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Tom Wolf (D) cannot run for re-election due to term limits.
Shapiro was elected as attorney general in 2016 and served as Montgomery County Commissioner from 2011-2017 and state representative from 2005-2011. Shapiro’s campaign has focused on two key messages: his experience and work as attorney general and his potential ability as governor to veto legislation passed by the legislature’s Republican majority. Shapiro said his experience in the criminal justice system and on cases related to LGBTQ issues, workers’ issues, and election security are things he would continue to pursue as governor. Shapiro’s campaign website highlighted abortion and absentee/mail-in voting issues where he would veto legislation he disagreed with.
Mastriano was elected as a state senator from the Cumberland Valley in 2018. He served in the United States Army from 1988 to 2017. Mastriano also proposed a number of election policy changes, including eliminating no excuse absentee/mail-in voting and drop boxes, enacting universal voter identification, and prohibiting the use of private donations or grants for election administration. Following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization and its overturning of Roe v. Wade, Mastriano called on the state legislature to pass a bill banning abortion after the detection of a fetal heartbeat. Mastriano said he would rescind any remaining mask and vaccine mandates related to the coronavirus pandemic on his first day in office and work to pass a law banning similar future mandates.
How the state runs its elections has been one focus of each candidate’s campaign. As of 2022, the governor of Pennsylvania has the power to appoint a secretary of state charged with certifying election results, determining which voting machines the state uses, and ordering recounts and recanvasses of elections. Shapiro said, “[I will] appoint a pro-democracy Secretary of State to run our elections, expand pre-registration opportunities for young people, and implement same-day voter registration through Election Day.” Mastriano’s website said he would “Appoint a Secretary of State with experience in securing elections from fraud.”
Heading into the election, Pennsylvania has a divided government, with a Democratic governor and Republican majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. A Shapiro win would preserve this divided government, while a Mastriano win would create the opportunity for a Republican trifecta if Republicans also hold the state legislature. A trifecta occurs when one political party holds the governorship and a majority in both legislative chambers. Across the country, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 14 Democratic trifectas, and 13 divided governments.
Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates include Christina Digiulio (G), Joseph Soloski (Keystone Party of Pennsylvania), and Matt Hackenburg (L).
Each candidate has a running mate for lieutenant governor. Shapiro’s running mate is state Rep. Austin Davis and Mastriano’s running mate is state Rep. Carrie DelRosso.
There are 23% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 53% more Republican primaries and 8% more top-two/four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 10%.
These figures include elections in 39 states that account for 5,011 of 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year (81%).
A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than available nominations, meaning at least one candidate must lose.
Since our last update on Aug. 1, we have added post-filing deadline data from Florida and Vermont. Overall, 11 states in this analysis have Democratic trifectas, 20 have Republican trifectas, and eight have divided governments.
Of the 39 states in this analysis, 36 are holding partisan primaries. Three states—California, Nebraska, and Washington—use top-two primaries.
The number of Democratic primaries has increased in 11 states, decreased in 21, and remains the same in three. The number of Republican primaries has increased in 31 states, decreased in four, and is unchanged in one. The table below shows partisan statistics for the three states with the largest increases and decreases so far.
In addition to a state’s political makeup and party activity, redistricting is another reason for an increase in primary competitiveness.
After redistricting, some states—like Arkansas—hold elections for every district, while in other years, fewer districts are up each cycle. This creates more opportunities for primaries to occur. Or, like in West Virginia, redistricting creates new districts and, by extension, more primary opportunities. Currently, the total number of possible primaries affected by these changes is up 3.0% compared to 2020.
For states like New Mexico and South Carolina, where only one chamber is up for election every two years, only those chambers holding elections in 2022 that also held elections in 2020 are included.
Ballotpedia will continue to update these figures as information becomes available. In addition to this analysis, Ballotpedia collects competitiveness statistics at all levels of government, available here. This data is calculated following candidate filing deadlines and readjusted at the time of the primary to account for any changes to candidate lists.
Thirteen state government trifectas are vulnerable in 2022, according to Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings. Democrats are defending seven vulnerable trifectas and Republicans are defending six.
The Democratic trifectas in Delaware and Washington are highly vulnerable. Neither of those two states are holding gubernatorial elections in 2022 but in both states, Democrats have a five-seat or less advantage in the state Senate. Democratic trifectas in Colorado, Maine, and Nevada are moderately vulnerable. Two Democratic trifectas—Illinois and Oregon—are considered somewhat vulnerable.
Arizona is the only highly vulnerable Republican trifecta this year. The governor’s race is currently rated as a Toss-up, and Republicans have a one seat majority in both the state House and Senate. Three Republican trifectas in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas are classified as moderately vulnerable. The Republican trifectas in Florida and Iowa are somewhat vulnerable.
Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that are currently under divided government. According to our methodology, states that qualified as a possible Democratic trifecta pickup are Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and North Carolina, while Republicans have pickup chances in Alaska and Kansas. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, both parties have the opportunity to establish a state government trifecta.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. There are currently 23 Republican trifectas and 14 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 13 states have divided governments.
Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial elections this year and 88 of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers will hold regularly-scheduled elections.
Ballotpedia calculates the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by evaluating each trifecta component individually and assessing the chances of them changing control. We base our evaluations of gubernatorial races on ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. We assess state legislative chambers according to the absolute number of seats up for election and the proportion of seats that would need to flip for partisan control to change, evaluating both chambers in a state’s legislature individually.
The 2020 elections resulted in Republicans gaining two trifectas—in Montana and New Hampshire—both of which had divided government at the time of the election. In 2021, Republicans in Virginia broke what had been a Democratic trifecta by winning the governorship and control of the House of Delegates. Between 2010 and 2021, 73 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
State government trifectas at the Super Bowl
A look at next week’s school board recall in San Francisco
Three-fourths of Alabama state legislative districts are contested by only one of the two major parties
State government trifectas at the Super Bowl
This Sunday, Feb. 13, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams will face off in Super Bowl LVI. While we here at Ballotpedia are excited about the big game, we couldn’t resist taking a look at past results through the lens of our historical state government trifecta data from 1967 to 2021.
The matchup this year will pit a team from a state with a Republican trifecta—the Bengals, located in Ohio—against a team from a state with a Democratic trifecta—the Rams in California.
A government trifecta exists when one party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governorship in a given state.
If the Bengals win, it will be the third year in a row where a team from a state with a Republican trifecta has won the Super Bowl after the Buccaneers in Florida last year and the Chiefs, who play in Missouri, in 2020.
If the Rams win, it will be the first time since 2016 that a team from a state that had a Democratic trifecta has won the Super Bowl. The last team to win from a Democratic trifecta was the Denver Broncos in 2016.
The chart below shows each Super Bowl based on the winning team’s state government trifecta status at the time of each team’s victory.
Historically, teams from states that had divided governments—where no single party has a trifecta—have won the most Super Bowls at 25 (45%). One team—the New England Patriots from Massachusetts—makes up six of those victories. Every time the Patriots have won a Super Bowl, Massachusetts has had a divided government.
Teams from states that had Democratic trifectas have won 19 Super Bowls (35%) and hold the longest winning streak from 1970 to 1978. The Dallas Cowboys, located in Texas, won four Super Bowls while their state had a Democratic trifecta.
Teams from states that had Republican trifectas have won eight Super Bowls (15%) including the first three ever held. The Green Bay Packers, located in Wisconsin, won three Super Bowls while their state had a Republican trifecta.
Only one team has won a Super Bowl under all three trifecta statuses: the Broncos in Colorado. The team won in 1998 under a divided government, in 1999 under a Republican trifecta, and in 2016 under a Democratic trifecta.
The Bengals have never won a Super Bowl, but they have been to two in 1982 and 1989. In both years, Ohio had a divided government. The Rams have won one Super Bowl—the 34th in 2000—when the team was located in Missouri, which had a Democratic trifecta at the time.
The increased number of teams from states with divided governments around the 1900s and into the 2000s tracks with nationwide trends. In 1992, there were 31 states with divided governments and 19 trifectas. Today, there are 37 trifectas—14 Democratic and 23 Republican—and 13 divided governments.
A look at next week’s school board recall in San Francisco
Recall elections against three of the seven members of the San Francisco Unified School District Board of Education are scheduled for Feb. 15, 2022. Petitions to recall board members Gabriela López, Alison Collins, and Faauuga Moliga were certified in October 2021.
All three board members named in the recall petitions were first elected to four-year terms on Nov. 6, 2018. The other four members of the board were not eligible for recall at the time as they had not yet served in their current terms for six months.
Recall supporters said they were frustrated that schools in the district remained closed for nearly a year in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Supporters also said they were upset the board had taken time voting to rename 44 buildings rather than focus on school re-openings.
Siva Raj, a parent who filed notices of intent to recall, said, “From day one, the campaign was a campaign to get politics out of education … What we saw consistently was a pattern where school board leadership focused on a lot of political stunts and symbolic gestures.”
Mayor London Breed endorsed the recall in November 2021, saying, “Sadly, our school board’s priorities have often been severely misplaced.” If any board members are recalled, Breed will appoint replacements.
On Feb. 21, 2021, López announced that the board would put building renaming on hold to focus on re-opening plans. At a board meeting on April 6, 2021, members unanimously voted to rescind the approval of the renaming process. At the same meeting, they voted to return students to full-time, in-person instruction at the start of the 2021-2022 school year.
According to the San Francisco Chronicle’s Jill Tucker, opponents of the recall “question why the city is spending more than $3 million on a recall election when the three board members’ terms are up in January 2023.”
The members being recalled also spoke out against the efforts. At an August 2021 event, Collins said, “When I see certain people getting upset, I know I’m doing the right thing.” López said, “The people who are behind this don’t know us, they don’t know our work, they don’t know what we’ve been doing, they don’t know what we are dedicated to.”
The last San Francisco official to face a recall election was then-Mayor Dianne Feinstein in 1983. Feinstein survived the recall with 81% of the vote in her favor.
So far in 2022, Ballotpedia has tracked 24 recall efforts against 64 school board members. Four recalls against seven members have already gone to a vote so far this year, all of which were defeated.
In 2021, we tracked 92 recall efforts against school board members, more than any year since at least 2006. The next most-active year was 2010 with 38 recall efforts.
Three-fourths of Alabama state legislative districts are contested by only one of the two major parties
After every filing deadline, we crunch the numbers to see how competitive elections will be at different levels of government and in different states. All year, we will be bringing you updates for all 50 states.
Today, we are looking at Alabama, the third state to have a filing deadline this cycle.
Of the 140 state legislative districts holding elections in Alabama this year, either a Democrat or Republican is likely to win 105 (75.0%) because no candidates from the opposing party filed to run. The filing deadline for candidates running for state offices in Alabama was Jan. 28.
Democrats likely will win 27 districts—six in the Senate and 21 in the House—because no Republican filed to run for them. Republicans likely will win 78 districts—21 in the Senate and 57 in the House. In 2018, 83 districts had no major party competition (59%) and 73 (52%) were uncontested in 2014.
The remaining eight Senate and 27 House districts likely will be contested between both major parties. This is the lowest rate of major party competition in the state since at least 2014.
But, before the general elections, candidates may need to pass through a primary.
Sixty-three of the 280 possible major party primaries (22.5%) are contested, meaning more than one candidate filed for a party’s nomination in a given district. While Republicans will have their highest number of contested primaries compared to recent elections, Democrats will have their lowest. Overall, the total number of major party primaries is at its lowest since at least 2014, which had 64 contests.
Overall, 271 candidates filed to run for the 140 districts: 88 Democrats, 182 Republicans, and one Libertarian. This equals 1.94 candidates per district, down from 2.15 in 2018 and 2.02 in 2014. Additional minor party and independent candidates may still file to run before May 24.
Alabama holds state legislative elections every four years during midterm cycles. The state’s primaries are the 11th in the nation, alongside Arkansas and Georgia. All three states will hold primary elections on May 24. In all three, if no candidate wins a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on June 21.
At the start of 2022, 36.5 percent (120 million) of Americans lived in a state with a Democratic trifecta, while 41.8 percent (137 million) lived in a state with a Republican trifecta. The other 71 million Americans lived in a state with a divided government.
A state government trifecta is a term to describe single-party government, when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. At the start of 2022, there were 38 trifectas—15 Democratic and 23 Republican.
Virginia’s will change from a Democratic trifecta to a state with divided government when legislators and Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin (R) are sworn into office on Jan. 12. In the 2021 elections, Republicans won control of the Virginia House of Delegates and the governor’s office, currently held by Democrat Ralph Northam. Democrats still control the Virginia State Senate.
When this happens, 33.9 percent of Americans (112 million) will live in a state with a Democratic trifecta, 41.8 percent (137 million) will live in a state with a Republican trifecta, and 24.3 percent (78 million) will live in a state with divided government.
Gubernatorial or state legislative elections are taking place in two states, New Jersey and Virginia, in 2021. Trifecta status is at stake in both states.
A trifecta exists when one party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house. There are currently 38 trifectas: 23 Republican trifectas and 15 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 12 states have a divided government where neither party has a trifecta. Ballotpedia has calculated the vulnerability of both trifectas with elections in 2021. Trifecta vulnerability is calculated by Ballotpedia by assessing each component’s chance of changing control. Gubernatorial races are rated using race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state’s legislature are evaluated individually.
New Jersey has been a Democratic trifecta since Gov. Phil Murphy (D) assumed office in 2018. It has scheduled elections for governor, all 40 state Senate seats, and all 80 state Assembly seats. Election forecasters rate the governor’s race Solid Democratic. Republicans need to either win that election, flip six out of 40 state Senate seats (15%), or flip 13 out of 80 state Assembly seats (16.25%) in order to break the Democratic trifecta. Ballotpedia therefore assesses New Jersey’s Democratic trifecta as not vulnerable.
Virginia has scheduled elections for governor and all 100 state House seats in 2021. The state is also a Democratic trifecta, and has been since the start of the 2020 legislative session. Election forecasters rate the gubernatorial election as Leans Democratic and Republicans would need to flip six of the 100 state House seats (6%). Ballotpedia has assessed Virginia’s Democratic trifecta as moderately vulnerable.
Changes in a state government’s policy priorities often follow changes in trifecta status, as trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. Between 2010 and 2020, 72 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
Forty-six state legislatures are currently in session. The Alaska House of Representatives has been in session since Jan. 19. But no regular business has taken place because legislators have not elected a permanent speaker or organized committees.
Partisan control of the House was uncertain after the 2020 elections, split between those favoring a Republican-led majority and those supporting a multi-party coalition. Republicans won 21 of 40 seats, but Rep. Louise Stutes (R) joined a coalition of 16 Democrats and three independents, leaving legislators split into two 20-member factions.
The Alaska House elected Josiah Patkotak (I) unanimously as temporary speaker on Feb. 4. Patkotak was elected to his first term on Nov. 3. He is presiding over the chamber until a permanent speaker is elected, taking over for Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer (R) who had filled the role of presiding officer since the legislative session began. Legislators have not submitted any nominations for a permanent speaker as of Feb. 9.
Alaska has a Republican governor, and Republicans control the state Senate, so final control of the chamber will also determine the state’s trifecta status.
The Alaska House faced a similar situation after the 2018 elections. That year, Republican-aligned candidates won 23 seats, and Democratic-aligned candidates won 17. A coalition of 15 Democrats, four Republicans, and two independents elected Bryce Edgmon (I) as House speaker on Feb. 14, 2019. Edgmon was originally elected as a Democrat but changed his party affiliation to independent before he was elected speaker. Both parties split control of key leadership positions and committees.
