The House Oversight Committee on May 10 held a hearing on ESG, during which Republicans and Democrats took opposite perspectives on the issue. Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) criticized ESG in his opening statement. Among other things, Chairman Comer said that he intends to hold more oversight hearings to investigate ESG policy. On the other side of the aisle, Congressman Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) argued in favor of ESG and criticized House Republicans for opposing policies supporting the investment strategy.
The U.S. House of Representatives on April 26, 2023, voted 219-210 to pass H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023, which aims to raise the federal government’s debt ceiling and includes provisions related to work requirements for certain able-bodied adults receiving Medicaid, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) assistance.
The proposal would require applicable Medicaid and SNAP recipients to complete 80 hours a month of community engagement or work-related activity. Applicable individuals under the proposal generally include adults between the ages of 19 and 55 who are physically able to work, not pregnant, and not serving as a caregiver to a dependent or incapacitated person. The proposal also includes provisions aimed at reducing TANF caseloads by modifying certain reporting and performance measures for the program’s existing work requirements.
In his April 19 remarks on the House floor, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) argued, “Our plan ensures adults without dependents earn a paycheck and learn new skills. By restoring these commonsense measures, we can help more Americans earn a paycheck, learn new skills, reduce childhood poverty and rebuild the workforce.”
Democrats, including House Agriculture Committee ranking member David Scott (D-Ga.), have argued against the work requirements. Scott stated in a press release, “Holding food assistance hostage for those who depend on it—including 15.3 million of our children, 5.8 million of our seniors and 1.2 million of our veterans—in exchange for increasing the debt limit is a nonstarter.” President Joe Biden (D) stated that he would veto the legislation if it reached his desk.
The U.S. House of Representatives on April 26, 2023, voted 219-210 to pass H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023, which aims to raise the federal government’s debt ceiling and includes provisions related to congressional review of agency rulemaking known as the Regulations from the Executive in Need of Scrutiny (REINS) Act.
The REINS Act would require congressional approval of certain major agency regulations before the rules could take effect. The REINS Act defines major agency regulations as those that have financial impacts on the U.S. economy of $100 million or more, increase consumer prices, or have significant harmful effects on the economy. A version of the REINS Act was passed in Wisconsin in 2017. A Florida law with similar provisions to the REINS Act was enacted in 2010. Republican lawmakers have introduced the REINS Act during every session of Congress since the 112th Congress (2011-2012).
Congresswoman Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) introduced the REINS Act in the 118th Congress with more than 170 Republican cosponsors. Following the vote on the Limit, Save, Grow Act, Cammack released the following statement: “With the passage of the Limit, Save, Grow Act, the most historic regulatory reform in history—the REINS Act—is one step closer to law. The regulatory regime has gone unchecked for decades and it’s time we return power to the American people, not the nameless, faceless bureaucrats in Washington.”
President Biden has stated that he will veto the Limit, Save, Grow Act if it reaches his desk. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated in January, “Congress is going to need to raise the debt limit without—without—conditions and it’s just that simple,” according to ABC News.
Since 2000, the Republican Party’s share of seats won exceeded its national vote share in 11 of 12 U.S. House of Representatives elections. The only election where the Republican Party won fewer U.S. House districts relative to its national vote share was in 2008.
During this period, the Democratic Party’s share of seats won exceeded its national vote share in seven of 12 U.S. House elections—in 2000, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
The Republican and Democratic parties can both win more seats than the percentage of total votes cast for the party’s candidates in U.S. House elections. Since 2000, candidates representing the Libertarian, Green, and other parties—including write-in candidates—have not won election in any U.S. House district. During that period, the national vote share that candidates representing the Libertarian, Green, and other parties received in U.S. House elections has ranged from 1.6% in 2022 to 4.8% in 2002.
Since 2000, the party that received the largest vote share in U.S. House elections won a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in every cycle but one—in 2012. That year, Republican candidates received 47.1% of the U.S. House vote nationwide and Democratic candidates received 48.4%, and Republicans won a majority of U.S. House seats—234 to 201. The most recent time this occurred prior to 2012 was in 1952 when Democrats won the popular vote but Republicans won the House. The other two times this happened were in 1914 and 1942, when Republicans won the popular vote but did not win the most U.S. House seats.
The largest difference between the Democratic Party’s share of seats won and its national vote share in U.S. House elections was in 2008. That year, it received 52.9% of the vote in U.S. House elections nationwide and won 256 districts—58.9%—of the seats in the House of Representatives.
The largest difference between the Republican Party’s share of seats won and its national vote share in U.S. House elections was in 2016. That year, it received 48.3% of the vote in U.S. House elections nationwide and won 241 districts—55.4%—of the seats in the House of Representatives.
Since 2000, the national vote share that independent candidates received in U.S. House elections has ranged from 0.3% in 2020 to 0.8% in 2014. Independent candidates won four U.S. House elections since 2000—Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in 2000, 2002, and 2004 and Virgil Goode (I-Va.) in 2000.
Ballotpedia compiled data from the 2022 U.S. House elections from official election sources. Final election results for 2022 are not yet certified or published in all states.
In 2022, 40 U.S. House elections were decided by margins of victory of five percentage points (pp) or less, up from 37 in 2020.
Democrats won 22 of those races, up from 19 in 2020. Republicans won 18, the same number as in 2020.
California and New York each had five races decided by five percentage points or less — the most in the country. Three of Nevada’s four districts were decided by such margins.
In Nevada, Democrats won the three districts decided by 5 pp or less – more than in any other state. In New York, Republicans won four of five races decided by 5 pp or less – more than in any other state.
In 2020, California and Texas had the most districts decided by five percentage points or less, with four each, followed by Iowa and Pennsylvania, with three districts each.
Democrats were most successful in Pennsylvania, where they won all three districts decided by five percentage points or less. Republicans were most successful in California, where they won all four districts decided by such margins.
Compared to previous cycles, Democrats won more U.S. House races decided by five percentage points or less this year than in any other year since 2012. On the Republican side, the 18 races the party won this year are tied with 2020 as the second-most they have won since 2012.
The closest U.S. House election this year was in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 votes cast. Boebert’s margin was 540 votes more than the closest race in 2020. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984.
Emilia Sykes (D) and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) are running in the November 8, 2022, general election for Ohio’s 13th Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Tim Ryan (D) did not run for re-election but for U.S. Senate in Ohio.
Spectrum News‘ Taylor Popielarz wrote, “Tim Ryan’s decision to run for Senate created a rare open seat and a very competitive race.” After 2020 redistricting, the 13th District—which race forecasters rated as Solid Democratic in 2020—is more Republican in 2022. According to FiveThirtyEight, the new 13th District has an R+2 lean, while the old district was even, meaning neither party had an advantage.
Popielarz wrote, “The [old] 13th District included the Mahoning Valley for the last decade, stretching from Trumbull and Mahoning counties west to Summit County. […] The new 13th that emerged from redistricting is quite different. It includes half of Stark County and all of Summit County.”
Sykes has served in the Ohio House of Representatives since 2015 and served as minority leader from 2019 to 2021. Before being elected to the state house, Sykes worked as an administrative staff advisor at the Summit County Fiscal Office and as a law clerk at a U.S. Bankruptcy Court. Sykes said in a campaign ad, “The other side […] are hoping you’ll forget that I worked with both parties to raise pay, keep us safe, and cut taxes. And they definitely don’t want you to know that I have a plan to lower costs and keep more money in your pockets.”
Gilbert is a small business owner, attorney, and television commentator. She also worked on Donald Trump’s (R) 2016 presidential election campaign as a national surrogate, among other roles, and on Trump’s 2020 campaign as an advisory board member. In an interview with Spectrum News, Gilbert said, “I’m the only candidate in this race that’s talking about the common sense solutions on these issues when it comes to inflation, it comes to energy crisis, it comes to the prices from the gas pump to the grocery store.”
The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 House districts are up for election. As of October 10, 2022, Democrats held a 220-212 majority in the U.S. House with three vacancies Republicans need to gain a net of six districts to win a majority in the chamber.
Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 50.7% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 47.9%.
Incumbent Chris Pappas (D) and Karoline Leavitt (R) are running for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District on November 8, 2022.
Pappas served on the New Hampshire Executive Council and in the state House of Representatives before Congress. He emphasizes his experience owning a restaurant. Pappas says his record includes working for affordable healthcare for New Hampshirites and combatting the opioid crisis. Pappas called Leavitt “the most extreme, out-of-step nominee” the district has seen and has criticized Leavitt’s support for the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.
Leavitt was a presidential writer and assistant press secretary under President Donald Trump (R). She highlights working for her family’s small business while growing up and her work in the Trump administration. Leavitt discusses securing the border, supporting police, and banning critical race theory as priorities. She said Pappas, along with President Joe Biden (D) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D), are “destroying our economy, brainwashing our children, and allowing illegals to invade.”
Democrats have held the seat since 2017. The 1st District changed party hands five times in elections between 2006 and 2016, alternating between Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and Republican Frank Guinta. Pappas was first elected in 2018, when he defeated Eddie Edwards (R) 54% to 45%. In 2020, Pappas defeated Matt Mowers (R) 51% to 46%.
Leavitt defeated Mowers in the 2022 Republican primary 33% to 26%.
The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 districts in the House are up for election. As of September 20, 2022, Democrats hold a 221-212 advantage in the U.S. House with two vacancies. Republicans need to gain a net of six districts to win a majority in the chamber.
Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 52.2% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 46.2%.
Incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Tom Barrett (R), and Leah Dailey (L) are running in the general election for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District on Nov. 8, 2022.
Michigan’s congressional district boundaries were redrawn after the 2020 census. Slotkin was first elected to represent Michigan’s 8th Congressional District in 2018, defeating incumbent Mike Bishop (R) 50.6% to 46.8%. In 2020, she was one of seven Democrats to win a House district that voted for former President Donald Trump (R) in the 2020 election. In December 2021, Slotkin announced that she would run for re-election in the redrawn 7th District, saying, “This new district contains nearly two-thirds of the population that I currently represent, my current congressional headquarters, and my campaign offices from 2018 and 2020.”
The redrawn 7th District encompasses Clinton, Ingham, Livingston, and Shiawassee counties, most of Eaton County, and parts of Oakland and Genessee counties, as well as Lansing, the state’s capital. According to data from Daily Kos, voters in the redrawn 7th District backed President Joe Biden (D) in the 2020 presidential election over former President Donald Trump (R) 49.4% to 48.9%.
Slotkin said, “After three years of representing this area of Mid-Michigan in Congress, I understand the mandate that families here expect me to prioritize: making daily life more affordable by lowering the cost of prescription drugs and child care; rebuilding Michigan’s manufacturing capacity by creating good-paying American jobs that cannot be outsourced; and not letting China eat our lunch.” On her campaign website, Slotkin said, “I’m running for re-election … because I want to build the next generation of cars and chips here in the U.S.; lower the cost of prescription drugs; fight for the Roe standard to preserve women’s personal freedom; and prevent corporate money from warping the political process.”
Before she was elected to Congress, Slotkin was a Middle East analyst in the CIA and worked in national security under Presidents George W. Bush (R) and Barack Obama (D).
Barrett was elected to represent Michigan Senate District 24 in 2018. Before serving in the Senate, Barrett represented District 71 in the Michigan House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019. Barrett served in the U.S. Army during Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom and was a helicopter pilot in the Michigan Army National Guard.
In his response to Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey, Barrett said he was running for Congress “to cut inflation by opposing reckless spending in Washington D.C. to lower the cost of living.” In order to “[m]ake America energy independent again,” Barrett said he would “work to expand America’s energy production, open pipelines, increase drilling, and end our reliance on foreign oil.” On his campaign website, Barret said, “My opponent, Elissa Slotkin, has voted with President Biden every single time – a perfect 100% voting record in support of his disastrous policies.” He said, “[Slotkin’s] support for corporate welfare, slashing domestic energy production, open borders, and higher inflation, is crushing Mid-Michigan families.”
Democratic and Republican House campaign committees have prioritized this election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) included Slotkin in Frontline, its program to help Democratic incumbents win re-election in competitive House districts. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) included the 7th District in its target list and designated Barrett as a member of the highest tier of its Young Guns program. According to Daily Kos, as of Sept. 19, the DCCC, House Majority PAC, NRCC, and Congressional Leadership Fund had spent more combined in this race than in any other House district.
The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 districts in the House are up for election. Democrats hold a 221-212 advantage in the U.S. House with two vacancies.
Incumbent Abigail Spanberger (D) and Yesli Vega (R) are running in the general election for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District on November 8, 2022.
Spanberger was first elected in 2018, defeating then-incumbent David Brat (R) 50.3% to 48.4%. Before that election, a Republican had represented the 7th District since 1971. According to various estimates, the district became more Democratic as a result of redistricting. The Cook Partisan Voting Index score for the old district was R+2, while the score for the new district is D+1. According to data from Daily Kos, voters in the redrawn 7th District supported Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R) 52.6% to 45.8% in the 2020 presidential election.
Before she was elected to Congress, Spanberger worked in federal law enforcement and was a case officer in the CIA. In June 2022, Spanberger said, “My strength and what I endeavor to do every day is to listen to voters and to be responsive to the needs that people are facing. And I don’t just talk about problems such as inflation or the cost of prescription drugs or the challenges that our communities are facing. I endeavor to hit them head-on.”
Vega, who has a background in local law enforcement, was elected to the Prince William County Board of Supervisors in 2019.
Vega’s campaign website says, “Yesli looks forward to fulfilling Congress’s responsibility of being a check and balance on the woefully inept Biden administration. She will be a strong advocate for the timeless American ideals of freedom, limited government, and restoration of the rule of law.”
Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have prioritized this election. The DCCC designated Spanberger as a 2022 Frontline Member, providing her campaign resources meant to help her win re-election and maintain a Democratic majority. The NRCC included this district in its list of Democratic-held target seats and named Vega as an “On the Radar” member of its Young Guns program.
The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 districts in the House are up for election.
Angie Craig (D), Tyler Kistner (R), and Paula Overby (Legal Marijuana Now Party) are running in the general election in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District on Nov. 8.
Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections wrote in Roll Call in April 2022 that “The suburban Twin Cities seat didn’t change much in redistricting; just 8 percent of the 2nd District is new to both candidates. And Biden would have won it by 7 points, putting it within reach for Republicans in the current political environment.”
Craig was first elected in 2018, defeating then-incumbent Jason Lewis (R), 53% to 47%. She was re-elected in 2020 against Kistner, 48% to 46%.
Before serving in the U.S. House, Craig worked as a journalist and in corporate communications and executive roles in the medical device industry. She stated why she was running on her campaign website as follows: “I worked hard to get where I am, but I was pretty lucky, too. For too many Americans, hard work doesn’t pay off like it used to. College is unaffordable and technical training is unavailable. Healthcare costs too much. Incomes aren’t keeping up with the costs of groceries and prescription drugs. We can do better.”
Kistner served as an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps and was a consultant at the time of the 2022 election. He stated his campaign’s mission on his website: “I’m running for Congress to ‘serve’ – not to serve big business, not to serve the political elites – but to serve Minnesotans who are increasingly concerned about our country’s future. I will be a check and balance to the Biden Administration and work to make a greater prosperity for our children and future generations.”
This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.
As of September 2022, three election race newsletters rated the contest as a Toss-up. Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics told MPR News in June 2022, “Look, this is a race that Craig only won by a couple of points in 2020. And we have a pretty good feeling that the political environment for Democrats is going to be worse, perhaps significantly worse, than it was in 2020.”
The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 districts in the House are up for election. As of September 13, 2022, Democrats hold a 221-212 advantage in the U.S. House with two vacancies. Republicans need to gain a net of six districts to win a majority in the chamber.
Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 52.5% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 45.4%. Biden carried the previous version of the district in the 2020 presidential election, 52.4% to 45.5%. Trump carried the district in 2016 with 47% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s (D) 45%.
