On Oct. 13, The Cook Political Report changed its race rating for the special U.S. Senate election in Georgia from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up”. On Oct. 8, Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican”.
Polling in recent weeks has shown Raphael Warnock (D) leading incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Rep. Doug Collins (R), who have been tied within, or near, margins of error. Recent polls from Quinnipiac showed Warnock with 41%, Collins with 22%, and Loeffler with 20%. Polls from Public Policy Polling show a similar margin, with Loeffler at 24% instead of 20%.
Twenty-one candidates are on the ballot: eight Democrats, six Republicans, five independents, one Green Party candidate and one Libertarian. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote on Nov. 3, a runoff between the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will take place Jan. 5, 2021.
Republicans have held both of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats since 2005. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler following Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R) resignation in December 2019.
Georgia is also holding a regularly scheduled Senate election. Race raters call that election between incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R), Jon Ossof (D), and Shane Hazel (L), Toss-up, Tilt Republican, or Lean Republican.
RealClearPolitics’ polling average for the presidential election in Georgia suggested a competitive race, as of Monday, with Joe Biden (D) at 47.8% and Donald Trump (R) at 46.6%.