BPI Update: With less than a month until the California recall, 73% chance Newsom is retained

On Sept. 14, California voters will decide whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). The Ballotpedia Power Index (BPI) estimates that, as of Aug. 20, there is a 73% chance Newsom is retained and a 27% chance that he is recalled. Should he be recalled, Newsom would be the second California governor in history to be recalled and voters would choose his replacement on the same ballot.

The BPI is an election forecasting tool that factors in polling averages from RealClearPolitics and share prices on PredictIt to project the overall chances of an outcome occurring in an election. The chart below shows the BPI for the first recall question in this election. In other words, a 60% score for no and a 40% score for yes would mean that, according to the combination of polling averages and PredictIt prices, there would be a 60% chance of voters not recalling Newsom and a 40% chance of voters recalling Newsom. We update this figure weekly.

Forty-six candidates, including nine Democrats and 24 Republicans, are running in the election. The candidates to receive the most media attention and perform best in polls so far are YouTuber Kevin Paffrath (D), 2018 gubernatorial candidate John Cox (R), radio host Larry Elder (R), former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R), California State Board of Equalization member Ted Gaines (R), former Olympian and television personality Caitlyn Jenner (R), and Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R).

Since 1911, there have been 55 attempts to recall a California governor. The only successful recall campaign was in 2003 when voters recalled then-Gov. Gray Davis (D). Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) was elected as Davis’ replacement. In that election, 135 candidates ran and Schwarzenegger received 48.6% of the vote.