Battleground districts in Virginia’s House of Delegates elections

By

Ethan Rice

Elections for the Virginia House of Delegates are taking place on Nov. 2, 2021. Ballotpedia has identified 22 of the 100 races as battlegrounds. Sixteen battlegrounds are elections for seats currently held by Democrats while the other six are for Republican-held seats. Based on analysis of these districts’ electoral histories, these races have the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly lead to shifts in a chamber’s partisan balance.

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To determine state legislative battleground races in 2021, Ballotpedia looked for races that fit one or more of the four factors listed below:

  1. In the last state legislative election, the winner received less than 55% of the vote.
  2. The presidential candidate who won the district in 2020 is of a different party than the most recent state legislative election winner in the district, and the most recent state legislative election winner won by a margin of 10 percentage points or less.
  3. The presidential candidate who won the district in 2020 is of a different party than the most recent state legislative election winner in the district, and the incumbent is not on the ballot this year.
  4. The presidential candidate who won the district in 2020 is of a different party than the most recent state legislative election winner in the district, and that presidential candidate won the district by a margin of 20 percentage points or more.

In 2019, Democrats won control of the chamber with a 55-45 majority. Twenty-nine races (29% of the chamber) were decided by margins of 10% or smaller, and six of the 100 seats up (6% of the chamber) changed partisan control, passing from Republican to Democratic control. Republicans need to gain six seats to win control of the chamber in 2021. Democrats need to hold at least 51 seats to maintain their majority.

The outcome of these elections, in addition to the state’s 2021 gubernatorial election, will determine Virginia’s trifecta status. Virginia became a Democratic trifecta in 2019 for the first time since 1994. If Republicans win control of the House or the governorship, they will break Democrats’ trifecta control of the state.

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