Trump leads Republican presidential primary polling and PredictIt market

As of August 22, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) holds a lead in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average currently stands at 56%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 15%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.57, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s (R) share price is $0.21, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.13. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 64% polling average, followed by lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 13%. No other candidate is polling at or above 10%. Biden has a $0.70 PredictIt share price. One other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.17.

Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.

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