Joe Biden, Donald Trump lead respective presidential primary polling averages and PredictIt markets

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As of Jan. 17, 2024, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average currently stands at 62%, followed by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) at 12% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 11%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.84 and Haley’s share price is $0.10. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 70% polling average. No other Democratic primary candidate is polling at or above 10%. Biden has a $0.79 PredictIt share price. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.

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