Ballotpedia’s top 15 ballot measures and trends to watch on election day

By

Ballotpedia staff

Welcome to the Wednesday, Oct. 23, Brew. 

By: Ethan Sorell

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Ballotpedia’s top 15 measures and trends to watch on election day
  2. 50 states in 25 days–West Virginia and Missouri
  3. Candidates for mayor of San Francisco focus on addressing homelessness

Ballotpedia’s top 15 ballot measures and trends to watch on election day

By year’s end, voters will have decided on 159 statewide ballot measures, the most since 2018 when voters decided on 167 measures. Voters in five states decided on nine ballot measures earlier this year. On Nov. 5, voters will decide on 146 statewide ballot measures in 41 states. In December, voters in Louisiana will decide on four more.

We’ve written quite a bit this year about statewide ballot measures. Today, let’s round it all up and look at 15 notable ballot measures and trends to watch on Nov. 5 across issues including abortion, electoral systems, citizenship, redistricting, criminal justice, marijuana, energy, and education. 

Abortion

  1. Florida Amendment 4 would establish a constitutional right to abortion. Florida is the most populous state to decide on an abortion-related measure this year. The amendment would maintain the current constitutional provision that permits a law requiring parents to be notified before a minor can receive an abortion while overturning a six-week abortion ban, which went into effect on May 1, 2024. 
  1. Arizona and Nevada–will decide on right-to-abortion initiatives. Arizona Proposition 139 and Nevada Question 6 would both establish constitutional rights to abortion. Both would allow the states to prohibit or otherwise restrict abortion after fetal viability, except when certain healthcare professionals determine that an abortion is needed to protect the life or health of the pregnant woman. 
  1. Nebraska will vote on competing ballot measures on abortion. Initiative 434 would prohibit abortions after the first trimester, except for medical emergencies or cases related to rape or incest. Initiative 439 would establish a “fundamental right to abortion until fetal viability, or when needed to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient.” The measure with the most affirmative votes supersedes the other one at points of conflict. This is the first time voters in any state will decide on conflicting abortion-related ballot measures on the same ballot.
  1. Voters in at least two cities, Amarillo, Texas, and San Francisco, California, will decide on local abortion-related ballot initiatives. In Amarillo, voters will decide on Proposition A, which would prohibit residents from receiving abortions outside Amarillo and prohibit people from transporting residents to locations outside Amarillo to receive abortions. In San Francisco, voters will decide on Proposition O, which would prohibit officials and employees from sharing information with out-of-state or federal law enforcement about state-legal abortions, decisions to have abortions, and other matters.

Electoral systems

  1. Alaska Ballot Measure 2 would repeal the state’s top-four ranked-choice voting (RCV) system, which was approved in 2020. Alaska is the first state to vote on repealing RCV, although several localities have adopted and then later voted on repealing the system. In Alaska, all candidates appear on a single primary ballot regardless of their party affiliation, and the top four vote-getters advance to the general election. In the general election, RCV is used to rank the four candidates. Ballot Measure 2 would revert the state’s electoral system to partisan primaries and general elections in which the candidate who receives the most votes wins.
  1. Voters in Colorado, Idaho, and Nevada will decide on ballot initiatives combining top-four or top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting general elections. Primaries would look similar in the three states but differ in the number of candidates that advance to the general elections. Candidates would be listed on the same ballot regardless of their partisan affiliation. Voters would choose one candidate. In Colorado and Idaho, the top-four candidates who received the most votes would advance to the general election. In Nevada, the top-five candidates would advance to the general election. Voters would then use ranked-choice voting in general elections to rank the four or five candidates who advanced from the primaries.
    • In Nevada voters must approve citizen-initiated constitutional amendments twice in order for them to become law. Voters approved Question 3 in 2022, with 52.94%.
  1. Voters in Arizona will decide on two competing measures related to electoral systems. Proposition 133 would add the existing system of partisan primaries to the Arizona Constitution. Proposition 140 would require primaries in which candidates, regardless of partisan affiliation, appear on a single ballot, and a certain number advance to the general election, such as top-two or top-four primaries. Since these measures contradict, the measure that receives the most votes will supersede the other at points of conflict. However, determining those points of conflict could be challenged in court.
  1. Washington, D.C., Initiative 83 would establish ranked-choice voting for elections beginning in 2026. Voters would be permitted to rank up to five candidates, including a write-in candidate. RCV would be used in federal elections, including the presidential election and municipal elections. The ballot initiative would also change the district’s primaries from closed to semi-closed, meaning unaffiliated voters could vote in a party’s primary election.

Non-citizen voting 

  1. In 2024, eight state legislatures put constitutional amendments on the ballot to prohibit the state or local governments from allowing non-citizen voting: Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. 

Legislative redistricting 

  1. Ohio will decide on a redistricting ballot measure that would change the state’s redistricting process for congressional and state legislative districts. Ohio Issue 1 would create a 15-member non-politician commission, the Ohio Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRC), which would develop and adopt redistricting plans. The CRC would have 15 members: five Republicans, five Democrats, and five individuals who are independents or members of other political parties. The CRC would replace the Ohio Redistricting Commission, which was established in 2015 for state legislative districts. The measure would also replace the multi-step process established for congressional districts in 2018.

Criminal justice

  1. California Proposition 36 would make several changes to 2014’s Proposition 47, which reduced penalties for certain crimes. Proposition 36 would increase penalties for theft and shoplifting, including when the goods are valued at less than $950, as felonies when the person has two or more previous theft-related convictions. People convicted of these crimes could face prison sentences of up to three years instead of the current six-month limit. Sentences could also be adjusted based on the value of the stolen property. The measure would increase penalties for certain drug offenses and add fentanyl to the list of drugs that lead to felony charges when possessed with a loaded firearm.

Marijuana

  1.  Florida Amendment 3 would legalize recreational marijuana, including the possession of up to three ounces of marijuana. Existing medical marijuana treatment centers would be authorized to sell marijuana for personal use. This is one of the year’s most expensive ballot measure campaigns, and between supporters and opponents, it is the most expensive marijuana-related ballot measure election on record.

Energy 

  1. Washington will decide on two energy policy measures. Initiative 2066 would prohibit state and local governments from restricting access to natural gas, among other provisions. Initiative 2117 would repeal the 2021 Washington Climate Commitment Act (CCA), a state law that provides for a cap-and-invest program to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 95% by 2050. The program limits the state’s total carbon emissions. Businesses emitting more than 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide must purchase allowances to cover their permitted greenhouse gas emissions. Initiative 2117 would also prohibit the state from creating similar programs.

School choice programs

  1. Colorado Amendment 80 would add a new section to the Colorado Constitution stating that “Each K-12 child has the right to school choice,” defined as “neighborhood, charter, private, and home schools, open enrollment options, and future innovations in education.” Kentucky Amendment 2 would give the General Assembly the power to “provide financial support for the education of students outside the system of common schools.” 
  2. Nebraska Referendum 435 would repeal legislation that allocates $10 million each year for a scholarship program for eligible students to cover the costs of attending accredited private schools. That legislation would provide that the average scholarship amount awarded per student must not exceed 75% of the statewide average general fund operating formula per student.

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50 states in 25 days–West Virginia and Missouri

As election day approaches, we’re continuing to dig into what voters across the country can expect to see on their ballots with our 50 states in 25 days series. Yesterday, we gave readers a look at what Wisconsin and Alaska voters can expect to see on their ballots. With seven business days between now and the final Friday before the election, let’s continue investigating what’s on the ballot across the country. Today, we’re looking at what’s on the ballot in West Virginia and Missouri. 

West Virginia

Let’s start with a look at West Virginia’s elections. Here are some key dates and deadlines:

  • The deadline for registering in person, online, or by mail was Oct. 15. Early voting begins Oct. 23 and ends on Nov. 2. 
  • All polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Everyone who is in line when the polls close must be allowed to vote. Voters can find polling locations here. 

West Virginia voters will decide one election for the U.S. Senate, two for the U.S. House, one for governor, 17 of 34 state Senate seats, and all 100 state House seats. Additionally, voters will decide on one statewide ballot measure.

Missouri

Next, let’s take a look at Missouri. 

  • The deadline for registering in person, online, or by mail was Oct. 6. Early voting began yesterday, Oct. 22, and ends Nov. 4.
  • All polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Central Time. Everyone who is in line when the polls close must be allowed to vote. Voters can find polling locations here.

Missouri voters will decide elections for one U.S. Senator, eight U.S. Representatives, governor, four other state executives, 163 state Representatives, 17 state Senators, two supreme court justices, and 10 intermediate appellate court justices. Missouri voters will decide on six statewide ballot measures.

Want to learn more about the elections you’ll be voting in this year? Click here to use our Sample Ballot Lookup tool!

The information above is just a small snippet of the detailed information on Ballotpedia for each state. You can check out our deep dive into West Virginia’s 2024 elections here and Missouri’s 2024 elections here.

Also, check out our hub page, linked below, for future installments of the series.

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Candidates for mayor of San Francisco focus on addressing homelessness

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive.

Today, we’re looking at the Nov. 5 election for Mayor of San Francisco, California, where Incumbent Mayor London Breed, Mark Farrell, Daniel Lurie, Aaron Peskin, and nine other candidates are running. Though San Francisco holds nonpartisan elections, all four leading candidates are registered Democrats.

San Francisco uses ranked-choice voting, which asks voters to rank candidates by preference on their ballots. The candidate who wins a majority of first-preference votes is declared the winner. If no candidate wins a majority of first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated. Ballots that ranked a failed candidate as their first or highest choice, depending on the round, are then reevaluated and counted as first-preference ballots for the next-highest-ranked candidate in that round. A new tally is conducted to determine whether any candidate has won a majority of ballots. The process is repeated until a candidate wins an outright majority.

  • In the 2019 mayoral election, Breed won on the first ballot in a field of seven candidates with 70.7%. 
  • San Francisco limits mayors to two consecutive four-year terms. Mayors may run again after a four-year break following their second consecutive term. Since Breed was first elected in a 2018 special election, this is her first time seeking re-election after serving a full term.  

According to ABC7 News Monica Madden, the four leading candidates are “in agreement about the severity of the homelessness problem in San Francisco, but they all differed in approaches to solutions.”

  • Breed says homelessness in San Francisco reached a ten-year low during her mayorship and says the city has the authority to enforce laws restricting lying and camping in public spaces after the Supreme Court’s decision in City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson. 
  • Farrell says he will prioritize sustainable growth and marketing the city to businesses and tourists. 
  • Lurie says his experience working for Tipping Point, a nonprofit focused on anti-poverty efforts, makes him the most qualified to lead efforts to increase housing. 
  • Peskin says he will reform system management practices so various city departments work together to address homelessness, work with neighboring cities to restore under-used state facilities for mental health treatment centers, and expand conservatorship laws.

Henry Flynn, Keith Freedman, Dylan Hirsch-Shell, Nelson Mei, Paul Ybarra Robertson, and Ahsha Safai are also running in the election.

Ballotpedia is covering 41 mayoral elections in 2024. This includes all mayoral elections in the 100 largest U.S. cities by population and all mayoral elections in state capitals. As of October 2024, the partisan breakdown of the 100 largest U.S. cities’ mayors is 63 Democrats, 25 Republicans, one Libertarian, four independents, and five nonpartisans. Two mayors’ partisan affiliations are unknown.

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