Ballotpedia’s 15th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report shows state legislative contests this year are less competitive than the record high in 2021 but still the second-most competitive of any odd year since 2011.

In 2025, the nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index is 38.1, down from 40.0 in 2021 but above the average of 31.6 since 2011.

While the percentage of open seats was lower than in any odd year since 2011 (4.4%), the share of incumbents in contested primaries was above the average of 21.0% (22.1%), and the percentage of seats contested by both major parties was the second-highest since 2011 (87.8%).

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition, where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The graphic below combines these figures for every election cycle from 2011 to 2025, showing the change in competitiveness, and how each criterion affects the overall competitiveness indices, over time.

Fewest open state legislative seats since 2011

There are eight open seats in this year’s state legislative elections, 4.4% of all 180 seats up for election. That is the lowest by percentage of any odd-year cycle since 2011. The previous low was 2013 with 15 open seats, representing seven percent of the seats up for election that year.

Four open seats in New Jersey ties 2019 for the fewest since 2011, and four open seats in Virginia is a record low since 2011. The previous low was five open seats in 2021.

Share of incumbents in contested primaries above average in 2025

Thirty-eight state legislative incumbents faced contested primaries in 2025, representing 22% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. While that was two fewer than the 40 contested incumbents in 2021, it was larger by percentage than each of the three previous odd-year cycles following presidential elections. Twelve percent were contested in 2013, 16% in 2017, and 20% in 2021.

Thirty-three of the contested incumbents were Democrats, representing 33% of the 99 Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election. That was a 43% increase from 2021. Five contested incumbents were Republicans, seven percent of the 73 Republican incumbents who filed for re-election and a 71% decrease from 2021.

Both major parties contesting 88% of this year’s races

Democrats are running for every state legislative seat up for election in 2025, and Republicans are running for 88% of them. That means 12% of seats this year are guaranteed to Democrats due to a lack of Republican competition in those races, and none are guaranteed to Republicans due to a lack of Democratic competition. Twenty-two seats out of 180 total are uncontested.

Democrats are guaranteed five seats (6%) in the New Jersey General Assembly and 17 seats (17%) in the Virginia House of Delegates. Republicans are not guaranteed any seats in either chamber.

Across the two states, 158 seats are contested by both major parties, representing 88% of the 180 seats up for election. That is down from 93% of seats featuring major party competition in 2021.

The total number of seats without major party competition—22—is six more and a 38% increase from 2021.

General elections in New Jersey and Virginia will take place on Nov. 4, 2025.