Welcome to the Thursday, Sept. 25, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- California Proposition 50 would shift five Republican-held congressional districts toward Democrats based on presidential election results
- Republican Party committees lead in cumulative fundraising as of Aug. 31
- On the Ballot previews the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2025-2026 term
California Proposition 50 would shift five Republican-held congressional districts toward Democrats based on presidential election results
On Nov. 4, California voters will decide on Proposition 50, which would approve a new, Legislature-drawn congressional map until the state’s Citizens Redistricting Commission (CCRC) redraws it in 2031. Today, we’ll look at the partisan lean for each proposed district, based on precinct results from the 2024 presidential election.
California’s U.S. House delegation currently has 43 Democrats and nine Republicans.
In 2024, Kamala Harris (D) won California in the presidential election. She won 41 congressional districts, and Donald Trump (R) won 11. Under the proposed map, Harris would have won 47, and Trump would have won five.
This represents a net gain of six districts for Democrats based on presidential election results, or four above the current number (43) that Democrats represent.
The proposed map would also decrease the number of districts decided by less than 10 percentage points in the presidential election from 14 to 10. The number of districts decided by less than five percentage points would decrease from eight to four.
Five Republican-held districts would become more Democratic
Under the proposed map, Harris would have won three of those five districts—the 1st, the 3rd, and the 41st—by more than 10 percentage points. She would have won the proposed 48th District by approximately three percentage points.
The proposed 22nd District would have shifted four percentage points toward Democrats, with Trump winning the district by approximately two percentage points. In 2024, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) outperformed Trump in the current boundaries, winning 53.4%.
Twelve Democratic-held districts would become more Democratic
In 2024, Trump won two California districts that also elected Democrats to the U.S. House. In the 9th District, Josh Harder (D) won 51.8% of the vote. In the 13th District, Adam Gray (D) won by 187 votes—the closest U.S. House election of 2024.
In the 45th District, Harris defeated Trump 49.3% to 47.8%. Derek Tran (D) defeated Michelle Steel (R) with 50.1% of the vote—the third-closest U.S. House election of 2024.
Four Republican-held districts would become more Republican
Under the proposed map, Trump would have won three of those four districts—the 5th, the 20th, and the 23rd—by more than 15 percentage points.
The proposed 40th District would have shifted approximately 10 percentage points toward Republicans, with Trump winning the district by approximately 12 percentage points. In 2024, Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) outperformed Trump in the current boundaries, winning 55.3%.
Twenty-three Democratic-held districts would become more Republican
Harris would have won 20 of those proposed districts by 10 or more percentage points. In two districts, Haris would have won by less than 10 percentage points.
In the current 6th District, Harris won 55.2% to Trump’s 41.4%. In the proposed new 6th District, Harris’ margin of victory would decrease from 13.9 percentage points to 8.4 percentage points. In 2024, Ami Bera (D) outperformed Harris, winning 57.6% of the vote.
In the current 35th District, Harris won 53.7% to Trump’s 43.4%. In the proposed new 35th District, Harris’ margin of victory would decrease from 10.3 percentage points to 7.8 percentage points. In 2024, Norma Torres (D) outperformed Harris, winning 58.4% of the vote.
Redistricting in other states before the 2026 midterm elections
Governor Gavin Newsom (D) said he proposed Proposition 50 to counter Texas’s new congressional map. The Texas Legislature approved the new congressional map on Aug. 22. According to The Texas Tribune, it would “[position] the GOP to net up to five additional seats in Texas.”
The Missouri General Assembly also approved a new congressional map on Sept. 12. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, it would create an additional Republican-leaning district.
Currently, five other states are considering voluntary redistricting before the 2026 midterm elections.
Click here for more information about Proposition 50 and here to learn more about redistricting before the 2026 elections.
Republican Party committees lead in cumulative fundraising as of Aug. 31
As of Aug. 31—the end of the most recent party committee campaign finance filing period—the three committees associated with the Republican Party have raised $259 million and spent $182 million. Meanwhile, the three committees associated with the Democratic Party have raised a cumulative $221 million and spent $210 million in the 2026 election cycle.
The three Democratic committees are the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). The three Republican committees are the Republican National Committee (RNC), the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
The RNC leads the DNC in cash on hand and receipts, while the DNC leads in disbursements. The DCCC leads the NRCC in cumulative receipts, disbursements, and cash on hand. The NRSC leads the DSCC in receipts and disbursements, while the DSCC leads in cash on hand.
The cumulative fundraising for the three Democratic committees as of last month ($221 million) is lower than their August 2021 fundraising total ($261 million) and higher than their August 2023 fundraising total ($198 million). On the Republican side, the three committees have raised $259 million as of last month, which is lower than their August 2021 fundraising total ($270 million) and higher than their August 2023 fundraising total ($170 million).
Click here for more information on Democratic and Republican committees’ fundraising from the 2026 election cycle.
On the Ballot previews the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2025-2026 term
In this episode of On the Ballot, we’re previewing the U.S. Supreme Court‘s 2025-2026 term, which begins on Oct. 6.
SCOTUSblog‘s Executive Editor Zachary Shemtob joins our host Norm Leahy to help break down the key cases to watch, the broader trends shaping the Court’s work, and how this term’s decisions could have lasting consequences for law, politics, and governance in the United States.
As of Sept. 10, the Court has agreed to hear 33 cases this term. Among the major cases are challenges to tariffs that test the scope of presidential authority over economic policy, a Voting Rights Act dispute from Louisiana involving claims of racial gerrymandering, and a Title IX case on whether transgender students can participate in school sports. Shemtob will also explain the Court’s emergency docket and its growing influence.
To listen to this episode and more, click here. Also, don’t forget to subscribe to On the Ballot on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast.