Douglas Kronaizl

Welcome to the Tuesday, October 19, Brew. 

By: Doug Kronaizl

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. State race spotlight: Virginia House of Delegates District 66
2. Beth Barts, subject of Loudoun County, Va., school board recall effort, resigns
3. Democrats gain majority in the Northern Mariana Islands House of Representatives after special election

State race spotlight: Virginia House of Delegates District 66

The Virginia House of Delegates is one of three state legislative chambers holding general elections this year. All 100 districts are up for election, with Democrats holding 55 to Republicans’ 45, making this the first time since 1999 where Democrats are defending a majority in the chamber. Ballotpedia identified 22 battleground House races based on four criteria, which can be found here. 

Today, let’s take a  closer look at the battleground race for Virginia’s House District 66 between Mike Cherry (R) and Katie Sponsler (D). Both candidates are Air Force veterans. Cherry has worked as a pastor and head of a parochial school while Sponsler has worked as a park ranger and physical trainer.

The district’s incumbent, Del. Kirk Cox (R), is not seeking re-election this year. Cox ran for governor instead and lost in the May 8 Republican primary. Cox was most recently re-elected in District 66 in 2019, winning 52-47%, his closest race since at least 2009. In 2020, Joe Biden (D) won the 66th district, defeating Donald Trump (R) 55-44%.

Both Cherry and Sponsler completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection Survey, which gives candidates a chance to speak directly with voters. Our survey goes beyond issue questions to elicit thoughtful responses from candidates on what they care about and hope to achieve. Responses allow voters to access their candidates and identify those that best align with their values.

Here’s a look at Cherry and Sponsler’s responses to two questions from the survey, reproduced here verbatim:

Question: Please list below 3 key messages of your campaign. What are the main points you want voters to remember about your goals for your time in office?

Cherry:

• When Mike entered the USAF, he took an oath to protect our constitutional rights. He believes all Americans have the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
• Mike believes a strong and safe Virginia is only possible with a strong police system.
• As an educator, Mike has a very clear understanding of what is going on in today’s education system.

Sponsler:

• Education should be public, equitable, and fully funded to serve the needs of diverse communities and a wide range of abilities
• Economic Justice is central in every American family’s needs. Without reliable, fair, and safe employment our communities and families can not thrive.
• Our environment is not just climate change, it is the landfills and factories in our our [sic] backyards. We must address the air, water and soil pollution in our district.

Question: What is your favorite book? Why?

Cherry: 

The Bible. It is the most impactful book in the history of mankind. It is the instructions for a successful life.

Sponsler: 

The Brothers Karamazov, by Fyodor Dostoyevsky

It’s [sic] discussion of the human experience and how that forms us in different ways causing a deep internal look no matter how many times I read it and that is what I think all the best books do.

You can read Cherry’s full responses here and Sponsler’s here.

According to recent campaign finance reports, Cherry had $165,162 on hand and Sponsler had $176,751. Cherry’s largest single donor is the Republican Party of Virginia, which contributed $17,552 to his campaign. Sponsler’s largest donor is Clean Virginia, a political organization focused on energy and government ethics, which contributed $50,000.

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Beth Barts, subject of Loudoun County, Va., school board recall effort, resigns

In other Virginia news, here’s an update that came late on Oct. 15. Beth Barts, the Leesburg District representative on the Loudoun County Public Schools school board in Virginia, announced her resignation effective Nov. 2. Barts was the subject of a recall effort that included five other members of the board.

Barts’ announcement comes 10 days after Loudoun County Circuit Court Judge Jeanette Irby ruled the recall could advance to a full trial. At the Oct. 5 pretrial hearing, Irby denied Barts’ motion to dismiss the recall petition against her since an attorney did not sign her motion. In Virginia, recall efforts are determined in circuit court rather than through a public vote.

Barts was first elected on Nov. 5, 2019, receiving 54.8% of the vote. Though school board elections in Virginia are nonpartisan, the Loudoun County Democratic Committee supported Barts.

In her resignation announcement, Barts said, “This was not an easy decision or a decision made in haste. After much thought and careful consideration, it is the right decision for me and my family.” Her attorney said he expected the recall case against Barts to be declared moot.

The school board will select Barts’ successor, who must be a qualified voter living in the school board’s Leesburg District.

Supporters of Barts’ recall are also circulating petitions against five other members of the nine-member school board in Northern Virginia.

Ballotpedia has tracked 81 school board recall efforts against 209 board members so far in 2021—the highest number of school board recall efforts tracked in a single year. The next-highest year was 2010 with 38 recall efforts against 91 school board members.

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Democrats gain majority in the Northern Mariana Islands House of Representatives after special election

On Oct. 16, Corina Magofna (D) defeated Grace Sablan Vaiagae (R) in a special election for District 3 of the Northern Mariana Islands House of Representatives. Magofna’s victory changed the party control of the seat, which Rep. Ivan A. Blanco (R) represented from 2017 until his death on July 23, 2021.

The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) is one of five unincorporated, organized U.S. territories. An unincorporated territory is a self-governing entity subject to the federal government. CNMI’s legislature consists of a Senate and House. There are 20 House members—18 elected from Saipan and the islands north of it, one from Rota, and one from Tinian and Aguiguan. Representatives serve two-year terms and are not subject to term limits.

The special election tipped the partisan scales in the House. Heading into the election, Democrats and Republicans both held eight seats with independents representing three. Magofna’s victory gives Democrats nine seats to Republicans’ eight. Of the three independents, one is affiliated with Republicans and two are affiliated with Democrats, giving the Democratic-Independent bloc a governing majority in the chamber.

As recently as 2019, there were no declared Democrats serving in the territorial House.

Republicans have a 5-1-3 majority in the territorial Senate. There are three independents and one Democrat. The territory’s governor, Ralph Torres, is a Republican.

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Welcome to the Friday, October 15, Brew. 

By: Doug Kronaizl

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Maine’s Question 1 could have the highest cost-per-vote ratio recorded by Ballotpedia
2. One federal judicial nominee confirmed since Senate’s return to session
3. Voters flip Iowa House seat to Republican in Oct. 12 special election 

Maine’s Question 1 could have the highest cost-per-vote ratio recorded by Ballotpedia

Maine’s Question 1, a citizen-initiated measure, could see one of the highest cost-per-vote ratios for a ballot measure that Ballotpedia has recorded. The measure would prohibit the construction of certain electric transmission lines in the state’s Upper Kennebec Region unless two-thirds of the members of both chambers of the legislature approve the development of such lines. Question 1 was designed to stop the New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC), a 145-mile long, high-voltage transmission line project in the region.

Supporters raised more than $71.8 million through Sept. 30, equal to $52.71 for each of Maine’s 1.4 million residents. The final cost-per-vote will be higher than that figure since additional contributions will be reported and only a portion of residents will turn out to vote.

If turnout this November is similar to turnout in recent election cycles (between 17% and 34% from 2015-2019), between 203,000 and 380,000 voters may cast ballots. That would result in a cost-per-vote ratio of anywhere between $189 and $353 for Question 1. 

Of the five highest cost-per-vote ratios since 2017, three have addressed policies related to energy. Voters rejected all five. Here’s a closer look at those five highest cost-per-vote ratios in that time with Maine estimates for comparison:

• Nevada’s Question 3 (2018): $100.85. It would have required the state legislature to pass laws to establish “an open, competitive retail electric energy market” and prohibited the state from granting electrical-generation monopolies.

• Alaska’s Ballot Measure 1 (2020): $64.64. The measure would have increased taxes on oil production fields.

• Montana’s Initiative 185 (2018): $51.30. It would have increased the state’s tobacco tax to fund Medicaid expansion.

• Ohio’s Issue 2 (2017): $37.79. It would have required state agencies and programs to purchase prescription drugs at prices no higher than what the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) pays for them.

• Arizona’s Proposition 127 (2018): $23.80. The measure would have required electric utilities in Arizona to acquire a certain percentage of electricity from renewable resources each year, with the percentage increasing annually from 12 percent in 2020 to 50 percent in 2030.

An influx of money does not, by itself, guarantee a high cost-per-vote ratio. State population and voter turnout play an important role. For example, California’s Proposition 22, which defined app-based rideshare and delivery drivers as independent contractors, is the most expensive ballot measure on record. Supporters and opponents raised over $224.3 million, which was about $5.67 per California resident. Seventeen million million people voted on Proposition 22, giving it a cost-per-vote ratio of $13.11 per vote.

While Ballotpedia does not track cost-per-vote ratios in other races, the U.S. Senate election in Maine between incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Sara Gideon (D) in 2020 saw $106,649,052 raised, resulting in a ratio of $130.19 per vote.

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One federal judicial nominee confirmed since Senate’s return to session

Since returning from its August recess, the U.S. Senate has confirmed one of U.S. President Joe Biden’s (D) federal judicial nominees: Sarah A.L. Merriam to the United States District Court for the District of Connecticut. Merriam previously served as a federal magistrate judge on the same court since 2015.

Biden nominated Merriam to the court on June 15 to replace Janet Hall, who assumed senior status on Jan. 21. The Senate confirmed Merriam on Oct. 6 by a 54-46 vote. All 48 Democrats, both independents, and four Republicans—Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.)—voted to confirm Merriam. Republicans cast all 46 votes against Merriam’s confirmation.

To date, 16 of Biden’s federal judicial nominees have been confirmed, the earliest that benchmark has been reached by any president since at least Ronald Reagan (R). The chart below shows the length of time, in days, it took the last seven presidents to confirm 16 federal judicial nominees:

As of Oct. 14, 11 Article III judicial nominees are awaiting a confirmation vote from the full U.S. Senate, five nominees are awaiting a Senate Judiciary Committee vote to advance their nominations to the full Senate, and 19 nominees are awaiting a hearing before the committee.

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Voters flip Iowa House seat to Republican in Oct. 12 special election

A special election was held for Iowa’s House of Representatives District 29 on Oct. 12. Jon Dunwell (R) won the special election with 59.8% of the vote, defeating Steve Mullan (D).

The special election was called after Rep. Wesley Breckenridge (D) resigned to take a job with the Iowa Law Enforcement Agency on Sept. 10. Breckenridge served from 2017 to 2021 and most recently defeated Dunwell in the 2020 election. Democrats had held District 29 since the district lines were redrawn after the 2010 census.

Voter turnout decreased by 71% compared to the 2020 general election.

This was the third state legislative special election held in Iowa in 2021. One was held for Senate District 41 on Jan. 26 and another for House District 37 on Sept. 14.

As of Oct. 14, three state legislative seats had flipped party control in 2021 as a result of state legislative special elections nationwide. Connecticut State Senate District 36 flipped from Democratic to Republican and New Hampshire’s House of Representatives District Hillsborough 7 flipped from Republican to Democratic. 

If no more state legislative seats change party control in a special election this year, it would be the lowest number of such events since 2010, when no seats flipped. From 2010 to 2020, an average of 10 state legislative seats changed party control in special elections each year.

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Welcome to the Tuesday, October 12 Brew. 

By: Doug Kronaizl

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. What does it take to start a political party?
2. Map of the week: Statewide primaries by month in 2022
3. Who is supporting, opposing the police staffing and training measure in Austin, Texas?

What does it take to start a political party?

On Oct. 5, Andrew Yang, a former Democratic candidate for mayor of New York and president of the United States, announced he was no longer registered as a Democrat and would form the Forward Party. 

According to its website, the Forward Party is “a PAC that plans to grow its support and then petition the FEC for recognition as a political party when we fulfill the requirements, which include operating in several states, supporting candidates, getting volunteers signed up around the country, and other party activities.”

In order to qualify for ballot placement, the Forward Party will have to meet certain requirements that vary from state to state. Let’s take a look at three:

• In Colorado, there are three types of political entities: qualified political organizations (QPOs), minor parties, and major parties. Groups must begin as a QPO, which involves filing with the state and holding annual meetings to elect leaders and select candidates, at least one of whom must be certified for the general election ballot every two years. A QPO can become a minor party if one of its candidates receives at least five percent of the vote in a statewide election, if at least 1,000 voters register with it, or if it submits signatures from 10,000 registered voters. QPOs or minor parties become major parties if a candidate receives at least 10 percent of the total votes cast in a gubernatorial election.
  
• In Texas, a group can form a political party by submitting organizational materials like bylaws, methods of selecting candidates, and a list of officers to the secretary of state.
  
• In New York, a political party is defined as any political organization whose candidate for governor at the last preceding election received at least 130,000 votes or two percent of all votes cast for the office, whichever is greater. By this metric, a group cannot apply for party status before the election, but rather must field a candidate for governor through the independent nomination process and then receive the required number of votes.

The number of ballot-qualified political parties nationwide changes as parties gain or lose qualified status. As of Nov. 2020, there were 47 unique, individual parties across the country with 225 state-level ballot-qualified political party affiliates nationwide. This means that some parties are recognized in multiple states. For example, both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are recognized in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. These two parties account for 102 of the 225 total state-level parties. Three minor parties were recognized in more than 10 states as of Nov. 2020:

• Libertarian Party: 35 states
• Green Party: 22 states
• Constitution Party: 15 states

In addition, some states distinguish between major parties and minor parties. Specific differences between major and minor parties differ from state to state. For example, in all states, major parties are granted access to primary elections. Some states, however, do not permit minor parties to participate in primary elections. Consequently, minor party candidates in these states can run only in general elections.

These are just a few of the rules and regulations Yang’s new Forward Party will need to navigate as the PAC begins to work towards party recognition.

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Map of the week: Statewide primaries by month in 2022

The 2022 primary election cycle kicks off in r March 2022 in two states: North Carolina and Texas. Voters use primary elections to select candidates who then advance to the general election. In most states, primaries are partisan, meaning voters of one party select their party’s candidate while voters of another party select theirs in their own, separate primaries.

Here’s a look at when states will be holding primaries in 2022 by month:

• June: 18 states
• August: 14 states
• May: 11 states
• September: 4 states
• March: 2 states

One state—Louisiana—technically holds its primaries in November with all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, running on the same ballot. If a candidate receives over 50% of the vote, he or she wins outright, but if not, then the race advances to a runoff election in December between the top two vote-getters.

Not all of the election dates shown above are set in stone. States may choose to rearrange their election calendars compared to previous election cycles as we head into 2022.

Other issues might also cause a shift. For example, in Texas, lawmakers have already approved a bill that would allow the state to move its primary date if new redistricting maps are not selected by certain deadlines. The state will keep its place as having the earliest primary elections—March 1–only if a redistricting plan is adopted on or before Nov. 15. If the plan comes later than that, the primary would be moved to April 5 or May 24.

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Who is supporting, opposing the police staffing and training measure in Austin, Texas?

Voters in Austin, Texas, will decide Proposition A on Nov. 2. The citizen initiative would establish a minimum police staffing requirement of two police officers for every 1,000 city residents. It would also require an additional 40 hours of training for officers each year and provide police with pay boosts for being proficient in non-English languages and being recognized for honorable conduct.

Two groups—Save Austin Now and No Way on A—have organized as the leading supporters and opponents of the measure, respectively.

Supporters:

Save Austin Now was co-founded by Matt Mackowiak, chairman of the Travis County Republican Party, and includes Ken Casady, president of the Austin Police Association, as a board member. 

The group has raised $2.0 million through the end of September and has spent around $1.8 million leaving them with roughly $200,000 cash on hand.

Top donors included Charles Maund Toyota, a local car dealership, which donated $100,000. Danielle Royston, a telecommunications executive, donated $98,000 and Joe Liemandt, a software executive, gave $75,000.

Save Austin Now also sponsored the measure banning camping in public places that Austin voters approved on May 1, 2021.

Opposition:

No Way on A is funded by the Equity PAC. The group launched in early September and reported at least $860,000 raised through the end of the month. 

The Open Society Policy Center, a nonprofit founded and chaired by investor George Soros, contributed $500,000 to the campaign on Sept. 27. The nonprofit also donated $500,000 to support Minneapolis’ Question 2, an initiative on that city’s Nov. 2 ballot to replace the Minneapolis Police Department with a department of public safety.

The campaign also reported a $200,000 contribution from the Fairness Project, a nonprofit that has supported minimum wage, paid time off, and Medicaid expansion initiatives in at least a dozen states since 2016.

Additional opponents of Proposition A include Austin Mayor Stephen Adler (D), the Travis County Democratic Party, the Austin Firefighters Association, and Black Lives Matter Austin.

Austin voters will also decide Proposition B on the Nov. 2 ballot, which concerns the city selling or leasing nine acres of parkland through a public bidding process.

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Welcome to the Friday, October 8, Brew. Just a heads up: there will be no Brew on Monday but we will be back in your inbox on Tuesday. Enjoy the long weekend!

By: Doug Kronaizl

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Redistricting Roundup: Three more states adopt new maps
2. Loudoun County, Va., Circuit Court rules school board recall may advance to trial
3. Two challengers defeat city council incumbents in Birmingham, Ala., general runoff election

Note: Louisiana’s primary elections were originally scheduled for tomorrow, Oct. 9, but were moved to Nov. 13 due to damage caused by Hurricane Ida. Learn more.

Redistricting Roundup: Three more states adopt new maps

Three states—Indiana, Maine, and Nebraska—adopted new congressional district maps between Sept. 29 and Oct. 6. Oregon is the only other state to adopt a congressional map in the 2020 redistricting cycle so far.

At this point in the 2010 cycle, 21 states had adopted congressional district maps. The relative delay in 2021 is caused by a delay in the delivery of census data. During the 2010 cycle, states began receiving block-level census data near the start of 2011. In 2021, by comparison, this data was not released until Aug. 12.

In each of these three states, the state legislature is responsible for drawing new district lines, which must then be signed by the governor before going into effect. Indiana and Nebraska, which, collectively, have 12 congressional districts, are both Republican trifectas, meaning Republicans control the legislature and the governorship. Maine, with two congressional districts, is a Democratic trifecta.

In addition to their congressional maps, these states also approved new state legislative district maps.

Here’s a breakdown. Click on the state names to learn more.

Indiana: Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) signed the state’s new maps into law on Oct. 4. The Indiana General Assembly approved these maps largely along party lines. 

In a statement issued after signing the state’s new district boundaries, Gov. Holcomb said, “I want to thank both the House and Senate for faithfully following through in an orderly and transparent way. And, a special thanks to every Hoosier who participated in the process by sharing their local perspective and input.” 

In a statement following approval of the maps in the Assembly, State Sen. Eddie Melton (D) said, “I’m very disappointed by the partisan nature of the redistricting process as well as the actions by the supermajority to deliberately dilute minority voices.”

Maine: Gov. Janet Mills (D) signed the state’s new maps into law on Sept. 29. The Maine State Legislature approved the new congressional map with unanimous support. In Maine, a two-thirds majority is required to pass congressional maps. 

The legislature also voted unanimously in favor of the new Senate boundaries. The state Senate unanimously supported the new House lines, and the House voted 119-10 in favor of them.

Upon signing the new district plans, Gov. Mills released a statement congratulating legislators “for preparing and approving new maps that fulfill our commitment to making sure Maine people are equally and fairly represented in their government,” adding, “To have done so without rancor and partisanship and under a constrained timeline is something Maine people can be proud of.”

Nebraska: Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) signed the state’s new maps into law on Sept. 30. The Nebraska State Senate approved the congressional map by a 35-11 vote, with all dissenting votes coming from Democrats. All Republicans in attendance along with four Democrats voted in favor of the map. The legislature approved the state legislative map by a 37-7 vote. Five Democrats and two Republicans voted against the map. Eight Democrats and 29 Republicans voted in favor of the map.

While the Nebraska State Senate is officially nonpartisan, Ballotpedia collects information from numerous sources such as voter registration websites, party endorsement lists, and news coverage to determine partisan affiliations.

Following the approval of the maps, Sen. Justin Wayne (D) said: “It was a very frustrating process, but we got to a good result.” Sen. Lou Ann Linehan (R), chair of the redistricting committee, expressed approval of the maps and, regarding the possibility of partisan impasse, said she was “constantly reminded how capable Sen. Wayne is” during the negotiations.

Loudoun County, Va., Circuit Court rules school board recall may advance to trial

An effort to recall Beth Barts from her position as the Leesburg District representative on the Loudoun County Public Schools school board in Virginia moved forward at a pre-trial hearing on Oct. 5. At the hearing, Loudoun County Circuit Court Judge Jeanette Irby ruled that the recall effort could advance to a full trial, denying Barts’ motion to dismiss the petition against her since it was not signed by an attorney.

The judge also granted the recall petitioners’ request to appoint a special prosecutor to take the place of Loudoun County Commonwealth’s Attorney Buta Biberaj, whom recall supporters alleged was a friend of Barts’. The case will go to trial after the special prosecutor is named.

Barts was first elected on Nov. 5, 2019, receiving 54.8% of the vote. Though school board elections in Virginia are nonpartisan, Barts is supported by the Loudoun County Democratic Committee.

Supporters of Barts’ recall are also circulating petitions against four other members of the nine-member school board in Northern Virginia. In Virginia, recall efforts are determined in circuit court rather than through a public vote. Virginia allows an official to be recalled on the following grounds: neglect of duty, misuse of office, incompetence, or conviction of misdemeanors related to drugs or hate crimes.

Ballotpedia has tracked 74 school board recall efforts against 192 board members so far in 2021—the highest number of school board recall efforts we have ever tracked in one year. The next-highest number was in 2010 with 38 recall efforts against 91 school board members.

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Two challengers defeat city council incumbents in Birmingham, Ala., general runoff election

Incumbent City Councilmen William Parker and John Hilliard lost to challengers J.T. Moore and LaTonya Tate, respectively, in the Oct. 5 general runoff election in Birmingham, Ala. The races for these two seats on the nine-seat city council advanced to a runoff after no candidate received a majority vote in the city’s Aug. 24 general election.

Parker, first elected to District 4 in 2013, placed first in the general election with 42% of the vote followed by Moore with 23%. In the runoff, Moore’s vote share increased to 58% while Parker’s remained the same. Hilliard, first elected to District 9 in 2017, similarly placed first in the general election with 49% followed by Tate with 29%. In the runoff, Tate received 52% of the vote to Hilliard’s 48%.

Turnout in the Oct. 5 runoff was lower than the Aug. 24 general. In District 4, the total number of votes cast decreased by 66% from 3,587 on Aug. 24 to 1,215 on Oct. 5. In District 5, the number decreased by 58% from 4,499 to 1,914.

Candidates also competed for two seats on the nine-seat Birmingham Board of Education. In District 9, Jason Meadows earned 72.1% of the vote, defeating Le’Darius Hilliard with 27.9%. The District 1 race remained too close to call, with only a few votes separating incumbent Douglas Ragland from challenger Sherman Collins Jr.

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Welcome to the Monday, October 4, Brew. 

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Briefing—Ballotpedia’s 2021 Elections To Watch
2. First candidate filing deadlines for 2022 currently set for December
3. Voters in Juneau, Alaska, decide today whether to renew 3% sales tax

Briefing—Ballotpedia’s 2021 Elections To Watch

The November general elections are less than a month away and we’ve been keeping a close eye on some of the most interesting races that will reshape city and state politics across the country heading into 2022. 

Tomorrow, Oct. 6, Ballotpedia Staff Writer Amée LaTour will be digging into elections ranging from Virginia’s governor to Cleveland’s mayor as part of a briefing on Ballotpedia’s 2021 Elections To Watch. 

Here’s a quick look at some of the races we will be discussing:

• In Virginia, voters will be casting ballots for all 100 members of the House of Delegates as well as electing a new governor. The outcome of these elections will determine whether Democrats maintain their newly won trifecta status in the state or if Republicans return Virginia to divided government. Democrats have a 55-45 majority in the House of Delegates, making this the first time since 1999 Democrats are defending a House majority. Ballotpedia has identified 22 battleground House races: Democrats hold 16 and Republicans hold six.

In the race for governor, just last week, the Cook Political Report changed its rating from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss-up” as former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and investment executive Glenn Youngkin (R) participated in their second, and final, debate.

According to Ballotpedia’s Power Index, an election forecasting tool that factors in polling averages and PredictIt prices, the race narrowed slightly last week with McAuliffe and Youngkin’s chances of winning at 79% and 21%, respectively.

• In Cleveland, incumbent Mayor Frank Jackson (D) is not seeking re-election, making this the city’s first open race for mayor since 2001. Two candidates advanced out of a seven-way primary: tech executive Justin Bibb (D) and City Council President Kevin Kelley (D). Bibb, who has never held office, is emphasizing a theme of fresh leadership while Kelley, who was first elected to the Cleveland City Council in 2005, is promoting his experience and record. Bibb received endorsements from Our Revolution Ohio and two former mayors: Michael White (D) and Jane Campbell (D). Kelley received endorsements from incumbent Mayor Jackson, four city council members, and numerous local unions.

• In Seattle, homelessness has emerged as a major issue in the mayoral race between the city’s former and current city council presidents: Bruce Harrell and Lorena González. King County, where Seattle is located, has the third-highest number of people without homes of any metro area in the country, behind only New York City and Los Angeles. Harrell and González disagree over the issues of encampments, groups of people living without homes in spaces like public parks, and zoning. Harrell said he supports removing people from encampments if they are offered and refuse some form of alternative shelter. González opposes that approach. To create more affordable housing, González wants to change city zoning laws to allow apartments in neighborhoods where current zoning allows only single-family homes. Harrell opposes that, saying community input is needed before changing zoning laws.

Learn more about these exciting races and several others by registering for the upcoming briefing using the link below!

Register now 

First candidate filing deadlines for 2022 are currently set for December

The first filing deadlines for primary candidates in the 2022 election cycle are currently set to take place in Texas and North Carolina on Dec. 13 and 17, respectively, though redistricting deadlines could result in changes. Eight states will see their filing deadlines in January and February of 2022. Eighteen states have deadlines in March while 12 have deadlines set in April and May. The remaining 10 have filing deadlines in June and July. 

Keep in mind: these deadlines are tentative. Delays in the redistricting process may alter the filing deadlines. For example, lawmakers in Texas already passed a bill that provides for a postponed primary and candidate filing deadline if new district maps are not in place by the following dates:

• If a redistricting plan is adopted on or before Nov. 15, the primary date and candidate filing deadline remain unchanged.
• If a plan is adopted after Nov. 15 and on or before Dec. 28, the primary is moved to April 5, and the filing deadline is to Jan. 24.
• If a plan is adopted after Dec. 28 and on or before Feb. 7, the primary goes to May 24 and the filing deadline is moved to March 7.

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Voters in Juneau, Alaska, decide today whether to renew a 3% sales tax 

The November election may be less than a month away, but there are still active elections throughout October. Today, voters in Juneau, Alaska, will decide on a ballot measure—Proposition 1—to renew the city’s 3% temporary sales tax for five years. If voters don’t approve Proposition 1, the tax would expire on July 1, 2022. If voters approve Proposition 1, the city’s total sales tax rate would remain at 5% — this 3% temporary tax, a separate 1% temporary tax, and a 1% permanent sales tax. If voters reject Proposition 1, the total sales tax rate in the city would drop to 2%.

The Juneau Assembly’s intended use of the revenue from the tax would continue to allocate revenue as it does currently:

1. 1% police, fire, street maintenance, snow removal, EMT/ambulance service, parks and recreation, libraries, and other general purposes;
2. 1% roads, drainage, retaining walls, sidewalks, stairs, and other capital improvements; and
3. 1% allocated annually by the assembly among capital improvements, an emergency budget reserve, and other general public services.

Residents voted 76-24% to renew the temporary tax in October 2016. At the same time, voters rejected a measure 66-34% that would have made the 3% sales tax permanent. Juneau Budget Analyst Adrien Speegle estimated the tax generates $30 million per year.

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