Author

Douglas Kronaizl

Douglas Kronaizl is a staff writer at Ballotpedia. Contact us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

A look at this year’s voter registration deadlines

Welcome to the Friday, March 3, Brew. 

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. A look at this year’s voter registration deadlines
  2. Redondo Beach, Calif., voters will decide ranked-choice voting, five other local ballot measures on March 7
  3. #FridayTrivia: How many incumbent mayors of the 100 most populous cities have lost re-election since 2016?

A look at this year’s voter registration deadlines

Every state except North Dakota requires residents to register with election officials before voting.

This year, eight states are holding statewide elections for state executive, legislative, or judicial offices: Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.

On average, residents in these eight states must register to vote at least 17 days before their respective elections.

But deadlines vary depending on how you register to vote. Three primary methods exist:

  • Online: registering through an official website, which usually requires a state-issued I.D.;
  • By mail: submitting a registration form in the mail, which must be either postmarked or received by a certain date; and,
  • In-person: going to an election official like a county clerk and registering in person.

All eight states allow residents to register by mail or in person, and all but Mississippi allow voters to register online.

The graphic below shows, for each method, each state’s deadline relative to their general elections: Nov. 7 for all states except Louisiana, which holds its on Nov. 18. 

These deadlines apply to primary elections, too, but vary by one day in Kentucky and Mississippi.

Looking just at in-person registration deadlines, Louisiana residents must register to vote 31 days before the general election, the earliest deadline. But, unlike in other states, if a resident misses that deadline, the online deadline is closer to the election than the in-person one at 21 days out.

On the shorter end, Washington has same-day voter registration, meaning a resident can go to a polling place on Election Day, register to vote, and cast a ballot. This option exists even though Washington is an all-mail voting state, meaning every registered voter is mailed a ballot each election.

The table below shows each state and its various registration deadlines by method. This table includes registration deadlines for primaries and general elections as well as deadlines for Mississippi’s primary and general election runoffs.

This year’s earliest registration deadline has already passed. Wisconsin residents had until Feb. 17 to register to vote in the statewide primary on Feb. 21.

Wisconsin also has the next upcoming deadline: residents can register by mail or online until March 15 or in person until March 31 to participate in the April 4 general election.

Keep reading 


Two cities to decide ranked-choice voting ballot measures on March 7

Ranked-choice voting is on the March 7 ballot in Redondo Beach, Calif., and Burlington, Vt. 

Both cities currently use some form of a runoff system, where if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two-vote getters advance to a runoff at a later date.

Under a ranked-choice system, voters rank candidates by preference. A candidate wh rogers a majority of first-preference votes wins. Otherwise, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated, and those votes are redistributed to the second-preference candidate. This is repeated until one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote.

In Redondo Beach, Charter Amendment 5 would institute ranked-choice voting for city elections except for the school board.

City Council member Laura Emdee, who supports the change, said, “Runoff elections are expensive and have historically been hostile … [and] also tend to have lower voter turnout.” Emdee added that, with ranked-choice voting, “Redondo Beach will experience more amicable campaigns at a lower cost.”

Ballotpedia has not identified any opposing arguments to Charter Amendment 5.

In Burlington, Question 4 would extend the city’s existing ranked-choice voting system to include mayoral, school board, and ward officer elections. Burlington voters approved ranked-choice voting for city council members in 2021, 64% to 36%.

City Council member Joan Shannon spoke in support of the measure, saying, “What we really want … is a voting system that serves democracy, that engages the public and that produces a result that is reflective of the voters’ will.”

Mayor Miro Weinberger opposes the measure, saying, “I don’t think there’s a need to in the … mayoral general election where we have a provision for a runoff if no one achieves a strong plurality, so I think it’s a mistake.”

Ballotpedia has identified ranked-choice voting ballot measures in 24 cities and counties between 2006 and 2022. Voters approved 21 versions of ranked-choice voting and defeated three others.

Voters in the California cities of Albany, Ojai, and Eureka approved ranked-choice voting measures between 2020 and 2022. Voters in Santa Clara defeated a ranked-choice voting measure in 2018.

We’ve only identified one other ranked-choice voting measure in Vermont: the one Burlington voters approved in 2021.

Redondo Beach voters will decide five other measures on March 7:

  • Charter Amendment 1 would change the bidding process for public works projects;
  • Charter Amendment 2 would allow the city to pay a deposit before supplies, materials, property, or services have been delivered or rendered;
  • Charter Amendment 3 would change language in the city’s charter to be gender-neutral;
  • Charter Amendment 4 would remove the mayoral signature requirement on all contracts, ordinances, resolutions, and warrants and allow the city council to authorize the city manager or another officer to sign such documents; and,
  • Measure CT would authorize the city to enact a cannabis and hemp business tax ranging from 3% to 9% of gross receipts for retail sales. It would also authorize a tax on cannabis testing labs at a rate between 1% and 3% of gross receipts.

Burlington voters have six other measures on their ballot:

  • Carbon Fee Measure would implement a carbon pollution impact fee for certain new buildings;
  • Proposition O would allow citizens place initiatives and referenda on the local ballot;
  • Question 1 would allow non-citizens who are legal residents to vote in local elections;
  • Question 2 would establish residency requirements for certain local elections;
  • Question 3 would change city election boundaries; and,
  • Question 5 would create an independent board to investigate and discipline police conduct.

Click the link below for a full list of all local ballot measures we have identified for 2023.

Keep reading 


#FridayTrivia: How many incumbent mayors of the most populous 100 cities have lost re-election since 2016?

Since 2016, we have covered 200 mayoral elections in the 100 most populous cities nationwide. Chicago’s Feb. 28 general election was the latest. 

As we mentioned in Thursday’s Brew, former CEO of Chicago Public Schools Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson won the top two spots, advancing to an April 4 runoff and defeating incumbent Lori Lightfoot, who placed third.

Including Lightfoot, how many incumbent mayors of the most populous 100 cities have lost re-election since 2016?

  1. 23 (12%)
  2. 12 (6%)
  3. 31 (16%)
  4. 43 (22%)


Chicago voters go to the polls

Welcome to the Tuesday, February 28 Brew. 

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Polling suggests runoff likely in today’s Chicago mayoral election
  2. Pennsylvania’s primary filing deadline is March 7
  3. Nineteen candidates filed for congressional and state offices last week

Polling suggests runoff likely in today’s Chicago mayoral election

Today, Feb. 28, voters in Chicago will cast their ballots for mayor (among other things). Nine candidates are running, including incumbent Lori Lightfoot, who was first elected in 2019.

Several candidates have received the most endorsements and support in polling: Lightfoot, U.S. Rep. Jesus Garcia, Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, and former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas. While Chicago’s mayoral elections are officially nonpartisan, these four candidates are all Democrats.

A candidate must receive at least 50% of the vote today to win outright, but polling suggests that is unlikely. Instead, the top-two vote-getters will advance to a runoff on April 4. Exactly who advances to that runoff is unknown.

Based on the five most recent polls, Vallas has a polling average of 19%, followed by Lightfoot with 15% and Garcia with 14%. But, on average, 18% of respondents are undecided or selected some other response.

An incumbent mayor has not lost re-election since Eugene Sawyer lost to Richard M. Daley in a 1989 special election. Jane Byrne was the last mayor to lose in a regularly-scheduled election in 1983.

Chicago mayoral elections became nonpartisan—with a general election and runoff—in 1999. No incumbent has lost since that change, and only two elections—2015 and 2019—have advanced to runoffs.

The 2019 contest, the city’s second open mayoral election since 1947, also had a nine-candidate field. That year, Lightfoot advanced to the runoff with 18% of the vote, followed by Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle with 16%. Lightfoot defeated Preckwinkle in the runoff, 74% to 26%.

Keep reading


Pennsylvania’s primary filing deadline is March 7 

Looking ahead, March 7 is the filing deadline for candidates hoping to run in Pennsylvania’s statewide and local partisan primaries this year.

The state will hold primaries on May 16 and a general election on Nov. 7.

While odd-numbered years typically have a reputation for being less politically active, voters in the Keystone State still have plenty of decisions to make up and down the ballot.

All of the contests Ballotpedia is covering use partisan primaries, where candidates have to win a party nomination to run in the general election. This includes contests like school boards, mayorships, and judgeships, which are usually nonpartisan in other states.

For school boards, specifically, Pennsylvania is one of four states that require partisan school board elections. Five other states allow counties or districts to choose whether they hold partisan contests.

Here’s a look at what’s on the ballot this year:

  • State supreme court: Justice Max Baer (D) passed away last year, creating a vacancy on the seven-member court. Democrats hold a 4-2 majority, but Republicans have won both partisan contests since 2017, most recently electing Kevin Brobson (R) in 2021. Regardless of this election’s outcome, the governing majority of the court will be at stake in 2025, when three Democratic justice’s terms expire (unless a vacancy occurs before then).
  • Intermediate appellate court: voters will fill one vacancy on the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court, Brobson’s old seat. There are also two vacancies on the Pennsylvania Superior Court: Jacqueline Shogan (R) retired in 2022, and John Bender (R) will reach the mandatory retirement age of 75 in November. Judges Vic Stabile (R) and Jack Panella (D) are also up for election on Nov. 7. But these are retention elections, so voters will decide—yes or no—whether the incumbents should receive another 10-year term.
  • School board: all of the state’s 499 school districts apart from Philadelphia’s—where members are appointed—are holding elections this year. That equals close to 2,250 seats, and we are going to be covering all of them. The largest district holding elections is Pittsburgh, where four of the nine seats are on the ballot.

In Pennsylvania, candidates for school boards, courts of common pleas, and magisterial districts can cross-file, meaning they can run in both the Democratic and Republican primaries. Candidates who win in both primaries advance to the general election as both the Democratic and Republican nominee, effectively guaranteeing victory.

Pennsylvania allows write-in candidacies. These candidates do not need to file before the primary but must file and accept their nomination if they win.

In primaries and general elections, the candidate who receives the most votes wins, even if it is less than a majority.

Keep reading 


Nineteen candidates filed for congressional and state offices last week

We identified 19 declared candidates between Feb. 21-24 for congressional and state elections in 2023 and 2024. Seven candidates are Democrats, eight are Republicans, and four are affiliated with minor parties.

Eleven candidates are running for Congress, six for state legislatures, and two for state executive offices. Some of those candidates include:

  • Adam Frisch (D), running in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. Frisch challenged incumbent U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) here in 2022, losing by a margin of 0.17 percentage points, the narrowest congressional margin of victory last year. Boebert has not announced whether she will seek re-election in 2024.
  • Shane Schoeller (R), running for Missouri Secretary of State. Schoeller served in the state House from 2007 to 2013 and ran for secretary of state in 2012. Schoeller lost to Jason Kander (D) in the general election, receiving 47% of the vote. Incumbent Jay Ashcroft (R) was first elected in 2016 and could seek a third term but is reportedly considering a gubernatorial bid to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Parson (R).

These candidacy announcements come well before their filing deadlines. Ballotpedia processes declared candidacies for all elected federal and state offices each week. This includes both official and declared candidates.

An official candidate is someone who registers with a federal or state campaign finance agency before the candidate filing deadline or who appears on candidate lists released by election agencies.

A declared candidate has not completed the steps to become an official candidate but might have appeared in a candidate forum, published a campaign website, or issued press releases, among other things.

You can learn more about how Ballotpedia defines a candidacy using the link below.

Keep reading 



Seattle voters create new Social Housing Developer with initiative’s passage

Welcome to the Friday, February 24, Brew. 

By: Douglas Kronaizl

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Seattle voters approve Initiative 135, creating the Social Housing Developer
  2. State supreme courts issued 233 opinions last week
  3. #FridayTrivia: How many of the 192 top state executive officials hold law degrees?

Seattle voters approve Initiative 135, creating the Social Housing Developer

Let’s take a look at a recent local ballot measure approved in Seattle. On Feb. 14, Seattle voters approved Initiative 135 with 57% of the vote. 

This citizen-initiated measure creates the Seattle Social Housing Developer, a public development organization that will own, develop, and maintain what the initiative describes as social housing.

Initiative sponsors said the goal of social housing is to provide publicly-owned apartments that are “removed from market forces and speculation” and built “with the express aim of housing people equitably and affordably … to remain affordable in perpetuity.”

Under Initiative 135, the public developer’s housing units will be available to those with incomes up to 120% of the area median income of $120,907. Rent is limited to 30% of the household income. Applications do not include references, co-signers, background checks, or application fees. Tenants will be selected using a lottery-based system.

As a public corporation, the Seattle Social Housing Developer will be able to issue bonds, receive federal funds and grants, and collect revenue from its services.

State Rep. Frank Chopp (D), Seattle School Board Director Brandon Hersey, and Tye Reed—a co-chair of House our Neighbors, the initiative’s sponsor—wrote the voter guide statement supporting Initiative 135, saying, “We are facing an unrelenting housing and homelessness crisis in Seattle … [W]e need more affordable housing and the tools we have to build it are not enough.”

Three advocates associated with existing local housing non-profits and advocacy groups—John Fox, David Bloom, and Alice Woldt—wrote the official statement opposing the measure, saying, “Creating another agency to compete for scarce housing dollars that costs several million to set it up before one housing unit is produced doesn’t make sense.”

We’ve so far identified 52 other local measures to be voted on this year. The next major election date is March 7, with local ballot measures to be decided in California, Florida, and Vermont.

Keep reading

State supreme courts issued 233 opinions last week

State supreme courts issued 233 opinions between Feb. 13 and 19. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court led the field with 77 opinions issued, followed by North Dakota with 20 and Kentucky with 18.

Last week’s 233 opinions account for 27% of the year-to-date total of 1,067. Pennsylvania, again, leads with 290 opinions issued since Jan. 1, followed by Texas with 69 and Delaware with 61.

Supreme courts in most states (37) have issued fewer than 25 opinions since the start of the year, and those in Michigan, North Carolina, and Utah have yet to issue any opinions so far.

Some of the state supreme court opinions issued this year include those in:

  • Kentucky, where the court upheld the state’s effective abortion ban while lawsuits against the ban continue;
  • Minnesota, where the court sent a case regarding a COVID-related executive order that had previously been dismissed back to an appellate court, saying it was still justiciable even though the order had expired; and,
  • Vermont, where the court upheld a statute allowing noncitizens who are legal U.S. residents to vote in Montpelier’s local elections

Supreme courts in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Texas, and Delaware regularly end the year as some of the country’s most active courts. Collectively, they accounted for 39% of all opinions issued in 2021, 40% in 2022, and, to date, 45% in 2023.

There are a few reasons for Pennsylvania’s outsized number of opinions each year. In most states, concurring and dissenting opinions are filed alongside the court’s majority opinion, but in Pennsylvania, the court publishes those opinions separately. Additionally, when deciding whether a case can be appealed, the court logs these decisions as standalone, typically single-page, orders.

Every state and the District of Columbia have at least one supreme court, known as a court of last resort. Oklahoma and Texas have two courts of last resort, one for civil cases and one for criminal proceedings. Supreme courts do not hear trials of cases. Instead, they hear appeals of decisions made in lower courts. The number of justices on each state supreme court ranges between five and nine.

In 2020, we conducted a study identifying the partisan balance on every state supreme court. You can find that research here. We also identified which justices ruled together most often in our Determiners and Dissenters report found here.

Keep reading 

#FridayTrivia: How many of the 192 top state executive officials hold law degrees?

In Wednesday’s Brew, we discussed the 192 top state executive officials and their educational backgrounds. These top officials represent the nation’s governors, lieutenant governors, attorneys general, and secretaries of state. Based on our research, just about every official (184) holds a bachelor’s degree, but the numbers vary for advanced degrees beyond that point.

How many of the 192 top state executive officials hold law degrees?

  1. 58 (30%)
  2. 112 (58%)
  3. 71 (37%)
  4. 93 (48%)


Twenty-one candidates running in Denver’s first open mayoral race since 2011

Twenty-one candidates are running in the general election for mayor of Denver, Colorado, on April 4, 2023. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, the top-two vote-getters will advance to a runoff on June 6, 2023.

Incumbent Michael Hancock (D), first elected in 2011, is term-limited. This is Denver’s fifth open mayoral election since 1959, the last time the city elected a Republican mayor.

Denverite‘s Kyle Harris wrote, “Denverites are worried about the city’s affordability … public safety and rising crime … [and] homelessness. People want solutions, and it’s clear that the people of the city understand that the mayor’s seat can try to tackle many of these issues.”

Former Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce C.E.O. Kelly Brough, state Rep. Leslie Herod, former state Sen. Michael Johnston, At-large City Councilwoman Deborah Ortega, and Army veteran Andy Rougeot lead the field in fundraising and media coverage. While mayoral elections in Denver are officially nonpartisan, Brough, Herod, Johnston, and Ortega are Democrats, and Rougeot is a Republican.

These five candidates all identified the topics of public safety, homelessness, and housing affordability as key issues in their campaigns.

On the topic of public safety, for example:

  • Brough said, “We must hold people accountable for unlawful activity” and “pursue economic development and public health strategies that will help to alleviate desperation that drives criminal activity in the first place.”
  • Brough said, “We must hold people accountable for unlawful activity” and “pursue economic development and public health strategies that will help to alleviate desperation that drives criminal activity in the first place.”
  • Brough said, “We must hold people accountable for unlawful activity” and “pursue economic development and public health strategies that will help to alleviate desperation that drives criminal activity in the first place.”
  • Brough said, “We must hold people accountable for unlawful activity” and “pursue economic development and public health strategies that will help to alleviate desperation that drives criminal activity in the first place.”
  • Brough said, “We must hold people accountable for unlawful activity” and “pursue economic development and public health strategies that will help to alleviate desperation that drives criminal activity in the first place.”

Renate Behrens, Al Gardner, state Sen. Chris Hansen, Aurelio Martinez, Terrance Roberts, Trinidad Rodriguez, Kwame Spearman, Ean Tafoya, Robert Treta, James Walsh, and Thomas Wolf will also appear on the ballot. Matt Brady, Paul Fiorino, Jesse Parris, and Abass Yaya Bamba are running as write-in candidates.

Denver has a strong mayor government, where the mayor serves as chief executive, and the city council operates as a legislative branch. In Denver, the mayor sets the city budget, nominates department heads—including the city attorney—and makes more than 700 appointments to positions city-wide. The mayor also oversees the Denver International Airport, police and sheriff departments, and the community planning and development department.

Additional reading:



56 minor party candidates received more votes than the margin of victory

Welcome to the Friday, February 17, Brew. 

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Fifty-six minor party candidates received more votes than the margins of victory between the winning candidates last year
  2. Eight candidates running for mayor of Jacksonville, Florida
  3. #FridayTrivia: How many U.S. House members sought other offices in 2022?

Fifty-six minor party candidates received more votes than the margins of victory between the winning candidates last year

Of the more than 40,000 elections we covered last year, at least 56 minor party or independent candidates received more votes than the margins of victory between the winning candidates in their elections, potentially altering the outcome.

Those 56 candidates include:

  • Five in congressional elections;
  • 18 in statewide elections;
  • 26 in state legislative elections; and,
  • Seven in municipal elections

These 56 candidates represent a decrease from 77 in 2020.

The affiliations of these 56 candidates are shown below, along with the affiliations of the candidates who won their respective elections. 

These 56 candidates appeared in 43 total elections. This is because, in some cases, more than one minor party or independent candidate received a vote total larger than the margin. In those 43 races, 27 Democrats, 14 Republicans, and two other party candidates won.

A few notable examples of close races from 2022 include the U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Michigan’s 10th Congressional District, and the Wisconsin Secretary of State contest.

  • In Nevada, incumbent U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated Adam Laxalt (R) by 7,928 votes. Independent candidate Barry Lindemann received 8,075 votes.
  • Two candidates received more votes than the margin of victory in the open race for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District. John James (R) defeated Carl Marlinga (D) by 1,600 votes—0.5% of the total votes cast. Andrea Kirby (Working Class) received 1.8% of the vote, and Mike Saliba (L) received 1.1%.
  • Two candidates received more votes than the margin of victory in the Wisconsin Secretary of State election. Incumbent Douglas La Follette (D) defeated Amy Loudenbeck (R) by 7,442 votes—0.3% of the total votes cast. Neil Harmon (L) received 2.1% of the vote, and Sharyl McFarland (G) received 1.6%.

Use the link below to view all races in 2022 where a minor party or independent candidate received more votes than the margin of victory.

Keep reading


Eight candidates running for mayor of Jacksonville, Florida

Eight candidates are running in the March 21 general election for mayor of Jacksonville, Florida, the country’s most populous city with a Republican mayor.

Incumbent Mayor Lenny Curry (R), first elected in 2015, is term-limited.

Donna Deegan (D), Audrey Gibson (D), Leanna Cumber (R), Daniel Davis (R), and Al Ferraro (R) lead the field in media coverage and fundraising. 

The Florida Times-Union’s Nate Monroe wrote that Jacksonville’s mayoral election system “makes larger fields with multiple viable candidates, as this year appears to feature, difficult to handicap.”

Deegan and Gibson are the only two Democrats running. Deegan is a philanthropist, author, and local TV news anchor. Gibson represented Jacksonville in the state Senate from 20016 to 2022 after serving in the House from 2002 to 2010.

Cumber, Davis, and Ferraro represent three of the field’s four Republicans. Cumber and Ferraro are both business owners and city council members. Davis is the C.E.O. of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce and a former state representative.

Frank Keasler (R), Omega Allen (I), and write-in candidate Brian Griffin (I) are also running.

In Jacksonville, all candidates run in the same general election regardless of party affiliation. If no candidate receives a majority of votes on March 21, the top-two vote-getters will advance to a runoff on May 16.

In 2015, Curry defeated then-incumbent Alvin Brown (D), 51% to 49%, in a runoff election. Curry won re-election outright in the 2019 general election with 58% of the vote.

Out of the 100 most populous cities and all state capitals, we are covering 40 mayoral elections this year, up from 34 in 2022 but the same as in 2021.

Keep reading 


#FridayTrivia: How many U.S. House members sought other offices in 2022?

In Thursday’s Brew, we told you that the number of U.S. House members who sought other offices in 2022 was higher than in 2020. This figure does not include House members who ran in other districts due to redistricting, but rather those who sought offices outside the chamber like the U.S. Senate or governorships.

How many U.S. House members sought other offices in 2022?

  1. 17
  2. 28
  3. 49
  4. 35


The final state legislative election of 2022

On Feb. 21, voters in New Hampshire’s House Stafford 8 District will determine the winner of the only remaining uncalled state legislative election of the 2022 cycle.

The seat was up for election on Nov. 8, but ended in a 970 to 970 vote tie, resulting in a redo election between incumbent Chuck Grassie (D) and David Walker (R).

Regarding the initial tied result, Grassie said, “this was not unexpected … We both ran good campaigns … and we’re both well-known in the community.” Walker said, “We’ve known each other for over 30 years, both well-known in the ward, so it is what it is.”

A redo election is a process of voiding election results and holding a new election. The specific reasons for calling a redo election vary but can include anything from a tied vote to deliberate efforts to obscure results to mistakes like a broken voting machine.

While New Hampshire’s redo election will not affect control of the state House, it will determine the extent of Republican control in the 400-member chamber, the nation’s largest.

If Grassie wins re-election, Republicans will control 201 seats to Democrats’ 197. If Walker wins, Republicans will extend their majority to 202 versus Democrats’ 196. Two seats, previously held by Democrats, are also currently vacant.

Under New Hampshire state law, in the event of a tied legislative race, the state Legislature either determines the winner or sets a process for deciding the winner.

Calling a redo election is not unprecedented in New Hampshire. The Legislature followed a similar course of action in 1992, also in response to a tied result.

Connecticut held a redo Democratic primary in House District 127 last September. In that race, officials learned that four ineligible voters had cast absentee/mail-in ballots, a larger number than the two-vote margin separating the candidates. Challenger Marcus Brown (D) defeated incumbent John Hennessy (D) in the redo election.



Trifectas at the Super Bowl

Welcome to the Tuesday, February 14, Brew. 

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. A look at Oklahoma’s spring school board elections
  2. How state Senates determine term lengths post-redistricting
  3. State government trifectas at the Super Bowl

A look at Oklahoma’s spring school board elections

Oklahoma is our Valentine today, as it kicks off this year’s school board election cycle today, Feb. 14, with school board primaries taking place statewide. The general election is on April 4.

Here’s a bird’s eye view of this batch of spring elections in the Sooner State:

  • Oklahoma has 512 school districts, each of which holds elections annually. Every district has at least one seat up for election this year.
  • Oklahoma’s school board elections are nonpartisan, meaning every candidate appears on the same ballot without party labels.
  • Statewide, 733 candidates filed to run in 488 districts
  • There are 24 districts where no candidates filed to run. In these districts, the local school board has 60 days from the election date to appoint a new member or call a special election.

Oklahoma’s election calendar can change based on the number of candidates running for an office.

Today, 27 offices (5% of all those up for election) are holding primaries, because more than two candidates are running. In these primaries, candidates win outright if they receive at least 50% of the vote. Otherwise, the top-two vote-getters advance to the April 4 general election. 

In another 123 offices (21%), two candidates are running. For these offices, the primary was canceled, and the candidates advance directly to the April 4 general election.

There are 405 offices (70%) where only one candidate is running. The primary and general elections are canceled here, and those candidates win outright.

There are approximately 4.5 school board members per district in Oklahoma. Statewide, men make up 64% of all board members, and women make up 32%. We could not determine the gender of around 5% of board members.

The six largest Oklahoma districts by enrollment are:

  • Oklahoma City Public Schools (35,897)
  • Tulsa Public Schools (35,675)
  • Edmond Public Schools (25,619)
  • Moore Public Schools (24,961)
  • Putnam City Schools (19,652)
  • Broken Arrow Public Schools (19,436)

The six smallest Oklahoma districts by enrollment are:

  • White Oak Public Schools (32)
  • Terral Public School (37)
  • Davidson Public Schools (37)
  • Straight Public Schools (40)
  • Gypsy Public Schools (47)
  • Freedom Public Schools (47)

This year, in addition to our usual coverage scope, we’re covering all school board elections in 10 states: Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Keep reading 


How state Senates determine term lengths post-redistricting

Most of the time, redistricting changes where a district is. But it can also change when incumbents must stand for re-election.

This is most commonly the case in state senates, where senators often serve varying term lengths or staggered terms, meaning only a certain number of districts are up for election each cycle.

Senators in 30 states serve four-year terms. In 12 states, senators serve two-year terms.

But in eight states, senators serve two- or four-year terms depending on how close the elections are to redistricting. How these states change the timing and term lengths in their state Senates vary.

In Arkansas and Texas, senators draw random lots during the first legislative session after redistricting. Half of the senators serve a regular four-year term, while the other half starts with a two-year term and then four-year terms after that.

In Delaware, specific districts follow either a 4-4-2 or 2-4-4 schedule, referring to the term lengths in a given decade. This schedule has been in place since 1980.

In Florida, after redistricting, odd-numbered districts are up for election in even years that are multiples of four, and even-numbered districts are up in even years that are not multiples of four.

During Hawaii’s redistricting process, the redistricting commission selects 12 districts that will serve a two-year term to start the decade. The other 13 districts serve regular four-year terms.

In Illinois, at the beginning of the first legislative session after redistricting, the Legislature passes a bill dividing the districts into three groups: the first is elected to 4-4-2 year terms, the second is elected to 4-2-4 year terms, and the third is elected to 2-4-4 year terms.

Every Senate seat in Minnesota and New Jersey is up for election simultaneously, so no adjustments are needed. The entire chamber is up during the first cycle after redistricting and then every four years until the cycle repeats.

Keep reading 

State government trifectas at the Super Bowl

In addition to a great game on Sunday, Super Bowl LVII offered us a rare matchup between a team in a state with a Republican trifecta—the Kansas City Chiefs from Missouri—against a team from a state with a divided government—the Philadelphia Eagles in Pennsylvania.

Such a matchup had only happened four times since the first Super Bowl in 1967. Teams from states with divided governments won three of those contests, while Republican trifecta teams had only won one: Super Bowl II in 1968.

That is, until this year, with the Lombardi Trophy heading back with the Chiefs to Missouri.

This year also marked the fourth in a row where a team from either type of trifecta—Democratic or Republican—won the Super Bowl. That’s now the second-longest streak in league history, behind only the initial 12-game trifecta win streak from 1967 to 1978.

The Chiefs have now won two Super Bowls while Missouri had a Republican trifecta and when the state had a Democratic trifecta.

The Eagles’ only Super Bowl win came in 2018 under a divided government.

Teams from states with divided governments have won the most Super Bowls at 25 (44%), though the New England Patriots padded those stats, making up six of those victories. Every time the Patriots have won a Super Bowl, Massachusetts has had a divided government.

Teams from states with Democratic trifectas have won 20 Super Bowls (35%) and hold the longest winning streak from 1970 to 1978. The Dallas Cowboys won four Super Bowls while Texas had a Democratic trifecta.

Teams from states with Republican trifectas have won nine Super Bowls (16%) including the first three ever held. The Green Bay Packers won three Super Bowls while Wisconsin state had a Republican trifecta.

Only the Denver Broncos have won Super Bowls while the state government was either divided (1998), or a Democratic (2016) or Republican (1999) trifecta.

The increased number of teams from states with divided governments around the 1990s and into the 2000s follows national trends. In 1992, there were 31 states with divided governments and 19 trifectas. Today, there are 39 trifectas—17 Democratic and 22 Republican—and 11 divided governments.

There are currently 14 teams in states with Democratic trifectas, 11 in states with Republican trifectas, and seven in states with divided governments.

The Super Bowl features the champions from the NFL’s two conferences, each with 16 teams: the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC).

The AFC includes eight teams in Republican trifectas, six in Democratic trifectas, and two in divided governments.

The NFC includes eight teams in Democratic trifectas, five in divided governments, and three in Republican trifectas.

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State legislative candidates won by an average margin of 27.7 percentage points in 2022

Welcome to the Friday, February 10, Brew. 

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Average margin of victory in state legislative races continued upward trend in 2022
  2. Five statewide ballot measure certified for 2023, 10 for 2024
  3. #FridayTrivia: How many state legislative chambers had guaranteed majorities in 2022?

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Average margin of victory in state legislative races continued upward trend in 2022

The average margin of victory in last year’s state legislative elections was 27.7 percentage points. This is the highest even-year average of the last three election cycles, up from 27.0 percentage points in 2020 and 25.8 in 2018. 

We define the margin of victory as the difference between a winning candidate’s vote share and that of the runner-up. For example, if Candidate A wins with 55% of the vote and Candidate B finishes with 45%, the margin of victory is 10 percentage points.

Legislators in Alabama won by an average margin of 56.4 percentage points, the most in the country. Tennessee and Arkansas followed, with average margins of 42.8 and 39.9 percentage points, respectively.

New Hampshire had the closest races, with legislators winning by an average margin of 11.1 percentage points, followed by South Dakota and Nebraska with average margins of 17.1 and 17.7 percentage points, respectively.

Democrats gained control of four chambers in 2022: the Michigan House and Senate, Minnesota Senate, and Pennsylvania House. The average margins of victory in these chambers was below the national average:

  • Michigan House: 26.9 percentage points
  • Michigan Senate: 25.2 percentage points
  • Minnesota Senate: 26.7 percentage points
  • Pennsylvania House: 27.6 percentage points

As average margins of victory trend upward, the percentage of seats won by narrow margins has gradually decreased, due in part to an increase in the number of candidates running unopposed.

The percentage of races decided by 10 percentage points or fewer decreased from 19% in 2018 (505 Dems., 573 Reps.) to 15% in 2022 (471 Dems., 404 Reps.).

Meanwhile, the number of races decided by more than 10 percentage points decreased slightly from 53% in 2018 (1,238 Dems., 1,765 Reps.) to 52% in 2022 (1,460 Dems., 1,582 Reps.).

The number of candidates running without major party opposition increased from 28% in 2018 to 30% in 2022. Unopposed Republicans drove this growth, increasing 101% from 591 in 2018 to 1,186 in 2022. The number of unopposed Democrats decreased 24% from 974 in 2018 to 745 in 2022.

The only tied race during the past three cycles occurred in 2022. In New Hampshire House of Representatives District Staford 8, Rep. Chuck Grassie (D) and David Walker (R) received 970 votes each. Both candidates are running in a redo election on Feb. 21 to determine the winner.

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Five statewide ballot measures certified for 2023, 10 for 2024

As of Feb. 9, five statewide measures have been certified for the ballot in three states for 2023. That’s equal to the average number of measures certified at this point in an odd-year cycle based on data since 2011.

Those five measures, and their election dates, are shown below:

We also know that 10 statewide measures have already been certified for the ballot in four states for 2024. That’s four more than the average number certified at this point in an even-year cycle based on data since 2012.

Here are some recent updates:

From 2011 to 2021, the average number of statewide ballot measures certified in an odd-numbered year was 33. By this point, in odd-numbered years from 2011 through 2021, an average of five statewide measures had been certified for the ballot.

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#FridayTrivia: How many state legislative chambers had guaranteed majorities in 2022?

We brought you post-filing deadline information from Mississippi in the Thursday Brew. Based on state legislative candidate filings, the number of Republicans running without Democratic opponents is large enough to guarantee Republican majorities in both chambers before any ballots are cast this November.

How many state legislative chambers had guaranteed majorities in 2022?

  1. 8
  2. 22
  3. 31
  4. 14

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Mississippi Republicans guaranteed majorities in both state legislative chambers for first time since Reconstruction

The major party candidate filing deadline in Mississippi passed on Feb. 1, and, for the first time since Reconstruction, the number of Republicans running without Democratic opponents is large enough to guarantee Republican majorities in both legislative chambers.

Following Reconstruction, Democrats controlled the Mississippi Legislature consistently from 1876 until 2007, when Republicans briefly controlled the Senate.

Republicans won control of both chambers in 2011, and since then, the number of races contested by both major parties has gradually decreased.

For Democrats, the number of seats without Republican opponents has remained somewhat constant since 2011, ranging from a high of 55 seats in 2019 to a low of 47 this year.

For Republicans, the number of seats without Democratic opponents has consistently increased, growing from 55 in 2011 to 98 this year.

Additionally, in 2023, there is one seat—House District 96—where neither major party fielded candidates, guaranteeing the seat to Rep. Angela Cockerham (I).

These figures are subject to change ahead of the general election due to candidate withdrawals and replacements.

This trend towards an increased number of uncontested Republicans mirrors that of filed candidates, in general.

Since 2011, the number of Republicans running for state legislative offices has increased from 172 to 183 in 2019 and this year.

The number of Democrats running has decreased from 168 to 105 this year.

This decrease in the number of Democratic candidates has resulted in a decade-low number of contested primaries. In Mississippi, a primary is contested if more than one candidate from the same party file to run for the same seat.

In 2019, there were 31 contested Democratic primaries, compared to 22 this year, a 29% decrease.

For Republicans, contested primaries increased from 41 in 2019 to 45 this year, a 10% increase.

Overall, the total number of contested primaries this year (67) represents 19% of all possible primaries, a decade-low percentage.

Twenty seats are open, meaning no incumbents filed to run, a decade-low number, representing 11% of the 174 seats up for election across both chambers. Newcomers are guaranteed to win open seats.

Mississippi has had a Republican trifecta since the party won control of the House in 2011. Republicans currently hold a 77-42-3 majority in the House and a 36-16 majority in the Senate.

Mississippi’s state legislative primaries are scheduled for Aug. 8. A candidate must receive at least 50% of the vote to win the primary, otherwise the top-two vote-getters advance to a runoff on Aug. 29.

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103 state legislative races were decided by fewer than 100 votes last year

Welcome to the Tuesday, February 7, Brew. 

By: Douglas Kronaizl

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. 103 state legislative elections decided by 100 votes or fewer in 2022
  2. Florida marijuana legalization amendment raised $20 million with eye on 2024 ballot
  3. Final reports show Democratic party committees outraised Republican committees in 2022 cycle

103 state legislative elections decided by 100 votes or fewer in 2022

One hundred three state legislative elections were decided by 100 votes or fewer in 2022, three times more than in 2020.

These 103 elections represented 1.6% of the 6,278 seats up for election in 2022. In 2020, 30 of the 5,875 seats up for election (0.5%) were decided within this margin.

Democrats won 49 of those 103 races (48%), Republicans won 52 (50%), and an independent won one (1%). An additional race in New Hampshire ended in a tie with a redo election scheduled for Feb. 21.

Of the 88 chambers with seats up for election last year, 31 had at least one race decided by fewer than 100 votes.

The New Hampshire House had the most seats decided by fewer than 100 votes. Thirty-six, or 16% of the 227 House districts holding elections, were decided by 100 votes or fewer.

The Maine and Vermont Houses followed, with five seats decided by fewer than 100 votes, representing 3% and 4% of the districts holding elections in each chamber, respectively.

New Hampshire House races are regularly decided by smaller margins than those elsewhere in the country due to the size of their districts. As of 2020, there are an average of 3,450 people in each of the state’s 227 House districts, the smallest in the country. 

Most of the 103 close races in 2022 were in districts with a smaller-than-average population. Sixty-eight (66%) were in districts with a population of less than 25,000. Districts that size comprised 26.3% of all state legislative districts as of 2020.

The New Hampshire House also led the pack in 2020, with 11 races decided by fewer than 100 votes, followed by the Vermont House with five, representing 3% of the seats up for election in both chambers. That year, 24 races (80%) were in districts with a population of less than 25,000.

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Florida marijuana legalization amendment raised $20 million with eye on 2024 ballot

Smart and Safe Florida, the political committee supporting an initiated constitutional amendment to legalize recreational marijuana, has raised $20 million in its effort to place the measure on the state’s 2024 ballot. This funding came from Trulieve Cannabis Crop., a marijuana business operating in several states, including Florida.

Florida legalized medical marijuana in 2016 after voters passed Amendment 2, a legislatively-referred constitutional amendment establishing the program. Voters approved the amendment 71% to 29%.

In Florida, constitutional amendments require a 60% supermajority vote to pass. 

The proposed 2024 amendment would legalize marijuana for all adults 21 years or older. Existing medical marijuana distributors would be authorized to sell marijuana for personal use, and the Legislature could provide additional licenses to cultivate and/or sell marijuana products.

As of Feb. 23, 22 states and Washington, D.C., have legalized recreational marijuana—seven through state legislative action and 16 through ballot initiatives. This total includes South Dakota, where the measure voters approved was later declared unconstitutional.

Four of those 16 approved ballot measures passed with more than 60% support. Washington, D.C., had the largest vote in favor at 70.06% in 2014. Maine had the smallest vote in favor at 50.26% in 2016.

In 2022, voters in Maryland and Missouri approved recreational marijuana measures with 67.20% and 53.10% of the vote, respectively.

The median statewide vote in favor of legalizing recreational marijuana is 55.80%.

To qualify for the 2024 ballot, the proposed Florida measure must submit 891,589 valid signatures by Feb. 1, 2024. Because election officials have 30 days to validate signatures, petitions are typically submitted at least one month before that deadline.

As of Feb. 2, 2023, Smart and Safe Florida had submitted 294,046 valid signatures, 33% of the total needed.

Campaigns have also filed marijuana legalization initiatives targeting the 2024 ballot in Nebraska and Wyoming.

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Final reports show Democratic party committees outraised Republican committees in 2022 cycle

Year-end federal campaign finance data filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on Jan. 31 showed the three major Democratic party committees raised a cumulative $966 million during the 2022 election cycle. The corresponding Republican committees raised $875 million.

This represents a change compared to recent election cycles. Republican committees outraised Democrats during the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.

These committees represent each party’s major fundraising arms at the federal level.

For Democrats, this includes the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

For Republicans, this includes the Republican National Committee (RNC), National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

While the national arms—DNC and RNC—represent the party, the office-specific committees focus on electing members to the Senate and House.

When looking at the specific committees in 2022, the DSCC and DCCC outraised their Republican counterparts, while the RNC outraised the DNC.

In 2020, the RNC and NRSC outraised their Democratic counterparts, while the DCCC outraised the NRCC.

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