TagHeart of the Primaries

Heart of the Primaries 2022, Democrats-Issue 39

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
September 15, 2022 at 1:42 PM

September 15, 2022

In this issue: A recap of major themes throughout the 2022 primary season, plus our reader survey

Welcome to our 39th and final issue of 2022’s The Heart of the Primaries, and thanks for joining us throughout the primary season! 

Let us know what you think

We’d love your feedback on the 2022 Heart of the Primaries newsletter. Please take our reader survey. We’ll be randomly selecting three participants for $50 gift cards!

Highlights from the final Democratic primary night

Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island rounded out the 2022 party primary season Tuesday. Here are the highlights: 

Rhode Island Governor: Incumbent Dan McKee defeated four other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, McKee led with 33% to Helena Foulkes’ 30% and Nellie Gorbea’s 26%.

Delaware Auditor: Lydia York defeated incumbent Kathy McGuiness 71% to 29%. We wrote last week about the misdemeanor charges McGuiness was convicted of ahead of the primary.

State legislative incumbents defeated

These figures were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Ten state legislative incumbents—four Democrats and six Republicans—lost in primaries on Sept. 13, but that may change. There are 15 Democratic primaries and 24 Republican primaries that remain uncalled.

Across the 46 states that held state legislative primaries this year, 216 incumbents, 4.5% of those running for re-election, have lost, an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Forty-seven of the defeated incumbents (22%) this year lost in incumbent vs. incumbent primaries.

Build Back Better and Infrastructure Act positions in spotlight

Throughout the year, incumbent Democrats’ positions on last year’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Build Back Better Act were points of debate in primaries. The conflicts involved arguments over bipartisanship, divisiveness, and furthering the president’s agenda. 

In August 2021, the House passed a resolution to advance both the infrastructure and Build Back Better bills. The resolution contained a nonbinding commitment to vote on the infrastructure bill in September (which did not happen). The House passed the infrastructure bill and then Build Back Better in November. The Senate didn’t take up Build Back Better. Both chambers passed and President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a smaller reconciliation bill, this year.

The Infrastructure bill “no” voters

Six lawmakers said they voted against the infrastructure bill because it was separated from the Build Back Better Act. Among the six, four faced primary opposition: Reps. Jamaal Bowman (NY-16), Cori Bush (MO-01), Ilhan Omar (MN-05), and Rashida Tlaib (MI-13). Each faced criticism from opponents and opponents’ supporters for their votes. 

Critics, including the incumbents’ primary opponents, said the representatives were divisive and not focused on getting results. The representatives said passing the infrastructure bill separately from Build Back Better threatened the fate of the latter bill. 

Each of the four incumbents above won their primaries. For more on the conflict in each of the races, including quotes from candidates and opponents, see the Heart of the Primaries stories below.

The budget resolution debaters

Nine Democratic House members signed a letter in August 2021 saying they would not support a budget resolution needed to pass Build Back Better unless a vote on the infrastructure bill, which the Senate had passed, happened first. Reps. Henry Cuellar (TX-28) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (GA-07) were among the nine who signed. 

The letter said, “The country is clamoring for infrastructure investment and commonsense, bipartisan solutions. This legislation does both[.] … [W]e simply can’t afford months of unnecessary delays and risk squandering this once-in-a-century, bipartisan infrastructure package.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) held a rally for Jessica Cisneros, who challenged Cuellar in a rematch this year. Ocasio-Cortez said, “If you’re upset about Build Back Better, you can elect Jessica Cisneros.” 

And in Georgia’s 7th, where Boudeaux faced fellow incumbent Lucy McBath (D) due to redistricting, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution‘s Patricia Murphy and Greg Bluestein wrote that “Bourdeaux drew the wrath of progressive groups — and [Stacey] Abrams allies — for joining other moderates with a stand that threatened to derail a $3.5 trillion social policy plan.” 

Bourdeaux and Cuellar supported the budget resolution with the nonbinding agreement and both bills when they came up in November. Cuellar won a primary runoff against Cisneros, while Bourdeaux lost to McBath.

Three satellite groups spent $55 million in Democratic primaries in 2022

Throughout the year, the satellite groups United Democracy Project, Protect our Future PAC, and Democratic Majority for Israel made headlines for their involvement in Democratic U.S. House primaries. According to Open Secrets, the groups spent a combined $55 million of the total $106 million all groups spent in those primaries.

United Democracy Project and Protect Our Futures PAC were the biggest spenders at $24 million a piece. 

United Democracy Project is a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). The group spent $14 million supporting Democratic primary candidates and $11 million opposing Democratic candidates. 

United Democracy Project made its largest expenditure in Maryland’s 4th Congressional District primary. We covered conflict over the group’s involvement in the race, and J Street Action Fund’s counter-involvement, in our July 14 issue. United Democracy Project spent $4.3 million opposing former U.S. Rep. Donna Edwards and $1.7 million supporting former Prince George’s County state attorney Glenn Ivey. Ivey defeated Edwards 51% to 35% in the July 19 primary. 

The group also spent $3.9 million supporting Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District. Stevens defeated fellow incumbent Andy Levin 59.5% to 40.5%. For stories on satellite spending in Michigan’s 11th and the candidates’ positions on Israel, see our March 10, July 7, and August 4 issues. 

Protect Our Future PAC is associated with cryptocurrency exchange founder Sam Bankman-Fried. According to Open Secrets, $23.3 million (96%) of the group’s expenditures supported Democratic candidates.

Protect Our Future PAC spent $10.4 million supporting Carrick Flynn in Oregon’s newly created 6th Congressional District Democratic primary. The group spent $936,000 opposing Andrea Salinas. Salinas, the only Democratic primary candidate Protect Our Future PAC spent against, won the May 17 primary with 36% of the vote. Flynn finished second with 18%.

Protect Our Future PAC’s spending made Oregon’s 6th District the congressional district with the most satellite spending this primary season. See our April 14 and May 19 issues for more on the group’s involvement in this district.   

Democratic Majority for Israel spent $6.6 million in Democratic primaries. Almost half was spent in Ohio’s 11th Congressional District. The group spent $1.6 million supporting Shontel Brown and $1.5 million opposing Nina Turner, who were in a rematch from last year’s special primary election. (Note that figures include spending in both the special and regular primaries.) Protect Our Future PAC and United Democracy Project were also active in this race, both spending to favor Brown’s re-election. Brown defeated Turner in the May 3 primary 66% to 34%.

Democratic Majority for Israel was also active in Illnois’ 6th District, where Rep. Sean Casten defeated Rep. Marie Newman 68% to 29%. The group spent more than $500,000 opposing Newman.

See our March 10, May 19, and June 30 issues for more on this group’s involvement in 2022’s primaries.

Redistricting and the primaries: By the numbers

This year’s primaries were the first using new district boundaries enacted after the 2020 census. Forty-four states adopted new congressional district maps. Six states only have one congressional district.

Forty-nine states adopted new legislative district boundaries, except for Montana. The state’s Legislature only meets in odd-numbered years and adjourned before the U.S. Census Bureau delivered data to the states on Aug. 12, 2021.

Seven new congressional districts

There are seven new congressional districts as a result of six states gaining U.S. House districts during apportionment: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas (which gained two seats). 

Seven states—California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia—lost one district each.

Six member vs. member elections

As a result of redistricting, six U.S. House districts had two incumbents running against each other in their party’s primaries (winner is underlined):

In the 2012 House elections following the last round of redistricting, 11 primaries featured two incumbents: seven Democratic, three Republican, and one all-party primary in Louisiana with two Republican incumbents.

Two House general elections will feature two incumbents in November. Neal Dunn (R) faces Al Lawson (D) in Florida’s 2nd, and Mayra Flores (R) faces Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) in Texas’ 34th.

Click here for more on these multi-member matchups.

In 2022, there were 48 incumbent vs. incumbent state legislative primaries: 16 for Democrats and 32 for Republicans.

Two rescheduled primaries

Two states held contests for different types of offices on two different dates because of court decisions regarding redistricting. 

New York held statewide and state Assembly primaries as originally scheduled on June 28 and congressional and state Senate primaries on Aug. 23. The New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court, overturned the state’s congressional and state Senate maps on April 27, ruling that both violated the state’s constitutional redistricting process.  

Ohio held congressional and statewide primary elections on May 3 and legislative primaries on Aug. 2. The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state’s adopted legislative district boundaries on April 14, after previously overturning three other sets of legislative maps that the legislature or state redistricting commission had approved. The state ultimately used maps the Ohio Redistricting Commission adopted.

U.S. House incumbent primary losses exceed last two redistricting cycles

Overall, 15 House incumbents lost in 2022 primaries—nine Republicans and six Democrats. (Those figures include Republican Bob Gibbs (OH-07), who unofficially withdrew but whose name still appeared on the ballot.) Six incumbent losses were inevitable this year due to primaries featuring two incumbents. Still, the number exceeds the previous two post-redistricting elections in 2012 and 2002. In 2012, 13 House incumbents lost primaries. And in 2002, eight incumbents lost.

Here’s 2022’s list of defeated U.S. House incumbents:

See you next primary cycle, and thanks again for reading!



Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 39

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
September 15, 2022 at 1:39 PM

September 15, 2022

In this issue: A recap of major themes throughout the 2022 primary season, plus our reader survey.

Welcome to our 39th and final issue of 2022’s The Heart of the Primaries, and thanks for joining us throughout the primary season! 

Let us know what you think

We’d love your feedback on the 2022 Heart of the Primaries newsletter. Please take our reader survey. We’ll be randomly selecting three participants for $50 gift cards!

Highlights from the final GOP primary night

Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island rounded out the 2022 party primary season Tuesday. Here are updates on the races we’ve covered: 

U.S. Senate in New Hampshire: Don Bolduc won the primary. He had 37% to Chuck Morse’s 36%. Nine other candidates ran.

New Hampshire’s 1st District: Karoline Leavitt defeated nine other candidates with 35% of the vote. Matt Mowers was second with 25%.

New Hampshire’s 2nd District: Bob Burns won with 33%. George Hansel had 30%, and Lily Tang Williams had 25%.

State legislative incumbents defeated

These figures were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Ten state legislative incumbents—four Democrats and six Republicans—lost in primaries on Sept. 13, but that may change. There are 15 Democratic primaries and 24 Republican primaries that remain uncalled.

Across the 46 states that held state legislative primaries this year, 216 incumbents, 4.5% of those running for re-election, have lost, an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Forty-seven of the defeated incumbents (22%) this year lost in incumbent vs. incumbent primaries.

Breaking down Trump’s primary endorsements and outcomes

Perhaps the most persistent storyline throughout the 2022 GOP primaries was former President Donald Trump’s (R) involvement, mainly via endorsements. We tallied 244 primaries and conventions in which Trump endorsed, 241 of which have taken place (the other three are in Louisiana). See our endorsements page for a full list.

Unopposed

Of the primaries completed so far, 60 candidates (25%) Trump endorsed ran unopposed. (We counted candidates who only had write-in opposition as unopposed.) 

Contested

Of the 176 contested primaries that have taken place in which Trump endorsed (excluding five races in which candidates didn’t make the ballot), 159 Trump endorsees won and 17 lost. That’s a success rate of 90%.

Endorsed GOP incumbent challengers

Some of the most noteworthy GOP primaries of the year were those where Trump endorsed a challenger to a Republican incumbent. There were 17 such primaries, and six endorsed challengers defeated incumbents. All are listed in the table below.

Note that we didn’t include the two primaries in which GOP incumbents ran against each other due to redistricting. In West Virginia’s 2nd, Trump backed Rep. Alex Mooney against Rep. David McKinley, and Mooney won. And in Illinois’ 15th, Trump-endorsed Rep. Mary Miller defeated Rep. Rodney Davis. (More on these races below!)

Over the year, we’ve featured a number of stories on battleground races in which Trump’s influence was a major theme. Here are just a few stories capturing key moments:

Potential 2024 presidential contenders emerge as counter-force

We’ve also seen a thread of counter-forces throughout the primaries. Sometimes it’s contrasting endorsements, and other times, overt criticism of Trump’s involvement. 

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R) made five gubernatorial primary endorsements this year, three of which contrasted with Trump’s endorsements. Pence backed Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona, incumbent Brian Kemp in Georgia, and Rebecca Kleefisch in Wisconsin.

In one of our first Heart of the Primaries issues of the 2022 cycle, we wrote that Maryland’s term-limited Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed Kelly Schultz in the gubernatorial primary the day after Trump endorsed Dan Cox. Cox won the primary in July, and Hogan said he wouldn’t support Cox in the general election. 

Hogan said Trump’s endorsements against incumbent Republicans hurt the party. Hogan branched out from his home state, fundraising for incumbents Trump opposed including Kemp and Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03). 

Arizona’s term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey, chairman of the Republican Governors Association (RGA), endorsed Taylor Robson in Arizona’s gubernatorial primary along with Beau Lane for secretary of state, countering Trump’s endorsement of Mark Finchem in the latter primary.

We also wrote about the RGA spending $850,000 on pro-Kemp ads during Georgia’s primary. The Hill‘s Max Greenwood said that “the spot for Kemp marks the first time that the group is financing a TV ad in a primary to support an incumbent facing a Republican challenger.”

Trump, Pence, Hogan, and Ducey are all on our list of potential 2024 presidential candidates.

Redistricting and the primaries: By the numbers

This year’s primaries were the first using new district boundaries enacted after the 2020 census. Forty-four states adopted new congressional district maps. Six states only have one congressional district.

Forty-nine states adopted new legislative district boundaries, except for Montana. The state’s Legislature only meets in odd-numbered years and adjourned before the U.S. Census Bureau delivered data to the states on Aug. 12, 2021.

Seven new congressional districts

There are seven new congressional districts as a result of six states gaining U.S. House districts during apportionment: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas (which gained two seats). 

Seven states—California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia—lost one district each.

Six member vs. member elections

As a result of redistricting, six U.S. House districts had two incumbents running against each other in their party’s primaries (winner is underlined):

In the 2012 House elections following the last round of redistricting, 11 primaries featured two incumbents: seven Democratic, three Republican, and one all-party primary in Louisiana with two Republican incumbents.

Two House general elections will feature two incumbents in November. Neal Dunn (R) faces Al Lawson (D) in Florida’s 2nd, and Mayra Flores (R) faces Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) in Texas’ 34th.

Click here for more on these multi-member matchups.

In 2022, there were 48 incumbent vs. incumbent state legislative primaries: 16 for Democrats and 32 for Republicans.

Two rescheduled primaries

Two states held contests for different types of offices on two different dates because of court decisions regarding redistricting. 

New York held statewide and state Assembly primaries as originally scheduled on June 28 and congressional and state Senate primaries on Aug. 23. The New York Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court, overturned the state’s congressional and state Senate maps on April 27, ruling that both violated the state’s constitutional redistricting process.  

Ohio held congressional and statewide primary elections on May 3 and legislative primaries on Aug. 2. The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state’s adopted legislative district boundaries on April 14, after previously overturning three other sets of legislative maps that the legislature or state redistricting commission had approved. The state ultimately used maps the Ohio Redistricting Commission adopted.

U.S. House incumbent primary losses exceed last two redistricting cycles

Overall, 15 House incumbents lost in 2022 primaries—nine Republicans and six Democrats. (Those figures include Republican Bob Gibbs (OH-07), who unofficially withdrew but whose name still appeared on the ballot.) Six incumbent losses were inevitable this year due to primaries featuring two incumbents. Still, the number exceeds the previous two post-redistricting elections in 2012 and 2002. In 2012, 13 House incumbents lost primaries. And in 2002, eight incumbents lost.

Here’s 2022’s list of defeated U.S. House incumbents:

Four of the nine Republican losses this year were among incumbents who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. Ten Republicans total voted yes on impeachment, and six of them ran for re-election. 

Democrats spent millions in GOP primaries

According to a Washington Post analysis, Democratic groups and individuals spent around $53 million in Republican primaries this year, 65% of which occurred in Illinois’ gubernatorial primary. The rest occurred in 12 primaries across eight states.

The Post‘s Annie Linskey wrote, “Some Democrats explain their actions by saying they are simply getting a jump on attacking Republican candidates for the general election, while others openly acknowledge trying to secure weaker competition in the fall. But there is little dispute about the effect of altering the Republican primaries in ways that could affect the November matchups.”

We wrote about Democratic groups spending in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate primary and the 2nd Congressional District last week. Previous issues included stories on Democratic spending in Maryland’s gubernatorial election and Illinois’ gubernatorial primary.

After the $35 million Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the Democratic Governors Association spent on ads the Post said were meant to boost Darren Bailey, who won the GOP primary, the Post found the next-highest spending levels in Colorado’s U.S. Senate primary ($4 million), Nevada’s gubernatorial primary ($3.9 million), and New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate primary ($3.2 million).

The Post described candidates the Democratic groups apparently intended to support as far right. Four of those candidates won primaries and seven lost. 

Linskey’s piece also discussed the debate among Democrats over Democratic spending in GOP primaries. Read more here.

Cross-party primary spending has happened before. For example, in 2012, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) ran ads designed to boost Todd Akin in Missouri’s GOP Senate primary, whom McCaskill went on to defeat in the general election. In 2020, a Republican group spent on ads and activities supporting Erica Smith (D) in North Carolina’s Democratic Senate primary. Cal Cunningham defeated Smith in the primary.

See you next primary cycle, and thanks again for reading!



Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 38

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
September 8, 2022 at 1:57 PM

September 8, 2022

In this issue: Rick Scott defends GOP Senate candidate quality, and we announce our final HOTP issue

The Heart of the Primaries final issue of the year is next week

We’ll be sending our last issue of 2022’s The Heart of the Primaries next Thursday. We’ll include results from the final battleground primaries of the year and a roundup of some of the major themes we’ve seen playing out across primaries. 

Also, we’re excited to announce our The Heart of the Primaries reader survey, which we’ll include in next week’s issue. We’d love to hear your feedback on the newsletter!

Massachusetts primary highlight

Governor: Geoff Diehl defeated Chris Doughty on Tuesday. As of Wednesday morning, Diehl led 56%-44%. Diehl was a state representative from 2011 to 2019.

Politico Massachusetts Playbook‘s Lisa Kashinsky wrote:

It’s Maura Healey versus Geoff Diehl in a governor’s race that will be a referendum on former President Donald Trump’s legacy and rhetoric in a historically anti-Trump state.

Trump-backed Diehl clinched the Republican nomination over more moderate political newcomer Chris Doughty, setting up a November clash between the conservative former state representative and the two-term attorney general who burnished her profile by repeatedly suing the Trump administration.

Republicans will “bring Trumpism to Massachusetts,” Healey declared in her victory speech, delivered before the GOP primary was called. She painted her Republican rival as someone who will “oppose abortion rights” — Diehl says he’s “pro-life” — and is generally “out of touch with the values we stand for.”

Diehl, in turn, cast Healey as “the people’s worst nightmare” in his speech. “We are going to be redefining politics as usual here in Massachusetts. For the first time in our state’s history, we are going to run a campaign focused specifically on we the people, our freedoms, our rights and our prosperity.”

State legislative incumbents defeated

These figures were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

No state legislative incumbents lost in Massachusetts’ primaries on Sept. 6, but that may change: There are eight races featuring incumbents—seven Democrats and one Republican—that remain uncalled.

Across the 43 states that have held statewide primaries so far, 205 incumbents, 4.7% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 43 states that have held primaries so far, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 21 have Republican trifectas, and 11 have divided governments. Across these 43 states, there are 5,679 seats up for election, 90% of the nationwide total.

Satellite spending and polling roundup in NH battleground races

Here’s a roundup of the latest satellite spending and polling ahead of New Hampshire’s congressional primaries on Sept. 13.

In the Senate primary, two satellite groups placed ad buys totaling more than $10 million combined in recent weeks. 

White Mountain PAC is spending more than $4 million on ads supporting state Senate President Chuck Morse, who has trailed Don Bolduc in polls. The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC is spending $6 million on ads opposing Morse. The Washington Post‘s Azi Paybarah said the PAC is trying to boost Bolduc and that its involvement is “the latest example of Democrats spending money to boost far-right candidates in Republican primaries in the belief they will be easier to defeat in November.”

A recent University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll showed Bolduc leading Morse 43% to 22%, with 20% undecided. The poll’s margin of error (MOE) was +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is running for re-election. Hassan defeated Kelly Ayotte (R) 48.0% to 47.9% in 2016. 

The 1st Congressional District primary has seen more than $2 million in satellite spending. The Congressional Leadership Fund spent more than $800,000 supporting 2020 GOP nominee  Matt Mowers. The group Defending Main Street spent more than $500,000 opposing Karoline Leavitt. American Dream Federal Action spent $300,000 supporting Mowers, and Truth & Courage PAC spent $200,000 supporting Leavitt.

In UNH’s 1st District poll, Mowers and Leavitt were essentially tied 26% to 24%. Gail Huff Brown was next with 16%, and 26% were undecided. The MOE was +/- 4.8 percentage points. 

Incumbent Chris Pappas is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

In the 2nd District, American Liberty Action PAC is spending almost $500,000 supporting Keene Mayor George Hansel. The PAC Democrats Serve spent $100,000 on an ad saying Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns “follows the Trump playbook on immigration, the border and guns.” 

Politico‘s Ally Mutnick said the Democratic group is trying to “elevat[e] a far-right candidate over a moderate backed by GOP Gov. Chris Sununu.” Sununu endorsed Hansel. One of the major issues in the race is abortion. Burns calls himself pro-life, while Hansel says he’s pro-choice.

In UNH’s 2nd District poll, Burns had 32% to Hansel’s 18%. Lily Tang Williams had 10%, and 37% were undecided. The MOE was +/- 4.5 percentage points. 

Incumbent Annie Kuster is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Race ratings and electoral history suggest competitive Senate and House general elections in New Hampshire this year.

NRSC Chair Rick Scott criticizes Republicans who criticize GOP Senate candidates

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, wrote an op-ed in the Washington Examiner telling fellow Republicans to stop saying the party’s Senate nominees aren’t good candidates. 

Scott said, “many of the very people responsible for losing the Senate last cycle are now trying to stop us from winning the majority this time by trash-talking our Republican candidates.” Scott did not name anyone in particular but said, “Giving anonymous quotes to help the Washington Post or the New York Times write stories trashing Republicans is the same as working with the Democratic National Committee.” 

Scott further said that “when you complain and lament that we have ‘bad candidates,’ what you are really saying is that you have contempt for the voters who chose them.”

In an interview last week, Scott commented on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s  (R-Ky.) statement that “there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

Scott said, “I clearly disagree with what he said. … We both agree we want to get the majority.”

On Monday, Politico changed its forecast for Senate control from Lean Republican to Toss-up. FiveThirtyEight has said Democrats are Slightly Favored to maintain control of the Senate since late July, a change from Toss-up. Both outlets mention Republican nominees, including in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, as a factor in their ratings changes. 

Scott wrote, “We have great candidates with incredible backgrounds and ideas to make our country better. Do I wish they had more money than their Democratic opponent? Of course. But we have great candidates, chosen by the voters in their states, and our job is to help each one of them win.”

Trump endorses in 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial primary

As the 2022 primary season wraps up, we’re beginning to look ahead to 2023’s races. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron for governor last month. 

Cameron is one of seven declared GOP candidates, alongside former Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, David Cooper, Eric Deters, Kentucky Auditor of Public Accounts Mike Harmon, state Rep. Savannah Maddox, and Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles. Former Gov. Matt Bevin (R) has not ruled out running. When the Courier Journal asked Bevin ahead of the Kentucky Farm Bureau’s annual breakfast if he was planning to run, Bevin replied, “I am planning to eat ham.”

The date of the Republican primary isn’t set yet. The 2019 primary took place on May 21.

Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is running for re-election. Beshear defeated Bevin in 2019 49.2% to 48.8%. Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

Competitiveness data: New Hampshire and Rhode Island

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive New Hampshire’s and Rhode Island’s Sept. 13 primaries are compared to recent cycles. 

New Hampshire

Rhode Island



Heart of the Primaries 2022, Democrats-Issue 38

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
September 8, 2022 at 1:51 PM

September 8, 2022

In this issue: Criticisms fly at RI gubernatorial debate, and we announce our final HOTP issue

The Heart of the Primaries final issue of the year is next week

We’ll be sending our last issue of 2022’s The Heart of the Primaries next Thursday. We’ll include results from the final battleground primaries of the year and a roundup of some of the major themes we’ve seen playing out across primaries. 

Also, we’re excited to announce our The Heart of the Primaries reader survey, which we’ll include in next week’s issue. We’d love to hear your feedback on the newsletter!

Massachusetts primary highlight

Secretary of state: Incumbent William Galvin defeated Tanisha Sullivan on Tuesday. As of Wednesday morning, Galvin led 70%-30%.

The Boston Globe‘s Matt Stout wrote:

With Tuesday’s projected victory, [Galvin] sits on the cusp of realizing historic longevity: Should he capture an eighth term in November, he will be poised to pass Frederic Cook, whose 28-year tenure as secretary lasted until 1949, as the longest-serving secretary in state history.

…

After not facing a Democratic opponent for more than a decade, Galvin has now beat back consecutive intraparty challengers, both of whom pitched themselves as more progressive alternatives.

Sullivan, like former Boston city councilor Josh Zakim in 2018, argued that Galvin had not been aggressive enough in pushing election reforms. She also cast Galvin as “anti-abortion,” echoing a similar line of attack Zakim made, and said she would push the office to tangibly do more to protect abortion rights.

And after a stirring speech at the state party convention in June, Sullivan captured party activists’ attention and the party’s endorsement — again, just as Zakim did four years earlier.

For some Democrats, Sullivan offered a more captivating pitch for change than her predecessor. A 48-year-old corporate attorney and Hyde Park resident, she pitched the office as a potential hub for democracy. She would have been both the first woman and person of color elected secretary, offering a perspective, she argued, that was needed to better engage communities of color and other places where voter participation has long lagged.

…

But as a first-time candidate, Sullivan struggled to raise funds and capture widespread attention for a down-ballot — and at times bitter — race. It’s also unclear how squarely her criticisms of Galvin as being an obstacle to change landed, given he publicly backed changes such as establishing election-day registration and was a vocal proponent of making expanded mail-in voting permanent.

State legislative incumbents defeated

These figures were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

No state legislative incumbents lost in Massachusetts’ primaries on Sept. 6, but that may change: There are eight races featuring incumbents—seven Democrats and one Republican—that remain uncalled.

Across the 43 states that have held statewide primaries so far, 205 incumbents, 4.7% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 43 states that have held primaries so far, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 21 have Republican trifectas, and 11 have divided governments. Across these 43 states, there are 5,679 seats up for election, 90% of the nationwide total.

Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial candidates participate in first televised debate

On Aug. 31, NBC 10 News hosted the first televised debate of Rhode Island’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. All five candidates participated: incumbent Gov. Dan McKee, Dr. Luis Daniel Muñoz, former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, and former Secretary of State Matt Brown. 

The Providence Journal’s Patrick Anderson and Katherine Gregg wrote that candidates “bashed the McKee administration for being the subject of an FBI investigation into an ill-fated education contract.”

Gorbea said, “We cannot have a state that is known nationally for FBI investigations. … That is not the kind of Rhode Island that will generate the kind of economy that works for everybody.”

Foulkes said, “The facts are, days into the governor’s term he gave a $5-million contract to a friend of his for business that we already had where they were charging us $1 million.”

McKee responded, “I know what I have done and what I haven’t done. … And every decision I made as governor of the state of Rhode Island has been in the benefit of the people of the state of Rhode Island[.]”

McKee, Gorbea, and Foulkes have led in endorsements and polling. To watch the full debate, click here.

Gorbea also criticized McKee about the FBI investigation in a campaign ad. McKee countered in an ad saying, “Lies and false attacks, it’s the worst kind of politics.” Foulkes said in a recent ad that she was focused on policy and criticized both Gorbea’s and McKee’s campaign ads.

McKee, formerly lieutenant governor, became governor in March 2021 after former Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) was appointed U.S. secretary of commerce.

The primary is Sept. 13.

Judge upholds two convictions against Delaware auditor, drops one

Two weeks ago, we wrote about Delaware Auditor Kathy McGuinness’ (D) convictions on three misdemeanor charges. On Aug. 30, Superior Court Judge William C. Carpenter upheld two convictions—conflict of interest and official misconduct—and dropped one on structuring (related to allegations over a state contract given to a political consultant). McGuinness appealed the convictions in July.

Delaware News Journal‘s Xerxes Wilson reported that the judge ruled McGuinness’ daughter, Elizabeth McGuinness, who Kathy McGuinness hired as a casual/seasonal employee in the Office of Auditor of Accounts, received special benefits as an employee, constituting a conflict of interest. The misconduct conviction, which Carpenter upheld, was connected to the conflict of interest conviction. Steve Wood, McGuinness’ attorney, said other employees received similar benefits as McGuinness’ daughter, while Carpenter said Wood didn’t bring that up in trial. You can find Carpenter’s full ruling at the end of Wilson’s article.

McGuinness said, “They did not prove that my daughter had any special privilege, nor did she.” 

Wood said, “Once sentenced, Ms. McGuiness intends to appeal her conviction to the Delaware Supreme Court, where we will point out the legal and factual errors that led to her being wrongly convicted.”

McGuinness faces Lydia York in the Sept. 13 primary. York said, “The people of Delaware deserve leaders who can be trusted to always do the right thing and to follow the letter of the law. The current auditor has done the opposite.” 

The state Democratic Party endorsed York in July. 

Competitiveness data: New Hampshire and Rhode Island

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive New Hampshire’s and Rhode Island’s Sept. 13 primaries are compared to recent cycles. 

New Hampshire

Rhode Island



Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 37

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
September 1, 2022 at 3:31 PM

September 1, 2022

In this issue: Boston Globe backs Doughty in GOP gubernatorial primary and a look at turnout in Ohio’s split primaries

Globe backs Doughty in Massachusetts gubernatorial primary

The Boston Globe editorial board wrote that “reasonable conservatives need to mobilize for Chris Doughty” in the GOP gubernatorial primary and “reset the Massachusetts state Republican Party by pulling it from the grip of Donald Trump.”

Doughty faces former state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R), who Trump endorsed before Republican Gov. Charlie Baker announced he wouldn’t seek re-election. Trump and Baker have criticized one another. Baker hasn’t endorsed in the primary. 

Before the Globe published its endorsement, Diehl said he refused to meet for an endorsement interview and called the paper’s editorial page “essentially just a bulletin board for left-wing progressive talking points and utopian daydreams.” 

Doughty said at a July debate, “Geoff cannot win running as an Alabama Republican in the state of Massachusetts.” Doughty has emphasized his business background and says he is equipped to address the high cost of living in the state.

Diehl highlighted that he won 71% of the state party convention endorsement vote and criticized Doughty for voting for Hillary Clinton (D) for president in 2016. Diehl says his record includes keeping gas taxes low and has emphasized his opposition to mask mandates.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has campaigned for Doughty, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) has campaigned for Diehl.

As of 2021, 10% of the state’s registered voters were Republican, compared to 57% unenrolled and 32% Democratic (unenrolled voters can vote in party primaries in Massachusetts). 

The primary is Sept. 6.

Peltola wins special U.S. House election (and other Alaska updates)

On Aug. 16, Alaska held top-four primaries and a special U.S. House election, the latter of which used ranked-choice voting. Certification is expected by tomorrow, and most battleground races have been called.

U.S House special general: Mary Peltola (D) won the election. On the final round of unofficial ranked-choice voting tabulation, Peltola had 51.5% of the vote to Sarah Palin’s (R) 48.5%. This election fills the term ending Jan. 3, 2023.

Before tabulation began, Peltola had 40% of first-choice votes, followed by Palin with 31% and Nick Begich III (R) with 28%. Write-in candidates received a combined 1.6% of the vote. 

Write-in candidates were eliminated first as a batch. Then Begich was eliminated. The votes of those who chose eliminated candidates as first choices were redistributed to the voters’ second-choice candidates if they chose such. Watch a livestream of the tabulation from the Alaska Division of Elections here.

Peltola will be Alaska’s first Democratic U.S. representative since Nick Begich Sr.—Nick Begich III’s grandfather. Begich Sr.’s plane went missing while he was in office in 1972. Don Young (R) won a special election to succeed Begich. Young served until his death in March of this year. 

Peltola, Palin, and Begich will meet again in the regularly scheduled general election for U.S. House in November. General elections for all offices below will be held Nov. 8 and will use ranked-choice voting as well.

U.S. House regular primary: As of Wednesday, The New York Times had called three of the four general election spots for Peltola, Palin, and Begich III. Peltola led with 37% of the vote, followed by Palin with 30%, Begich with 26%, and Tara Sweeney (R) with 4%. 

Sweeney said she’ll withdraw from the race, meaning the fourth spot would go to the fifth-place finisher. As of Wednesday, that was Libertarian Chris Bye, who had 0.6% of the vote. Sept. 2 is the target election certification date, and Sept. 6 is the ballot certification date. 

Alaska governor: Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R), Bill Walker (Independent), Les Gara (D), and Charlie Pierce (R) advanced to the general election. Dunleavy had 41% of the vote, followed by Walker and Gara with 23% each and Pierce with 7%.

Dunleavy was elected governor in 2018. He succeeded Walker, who initially ran for re-election that year and withdrew weeks ahead of the general election. Gara served in the state House of Representatives from 2003 to 2019. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

U.S. Senate: Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), Patricia Chesbro (D), and Buzz Kelley (R) advanced to the general election. Murkowski had 45% of the vote, followed by Tshibaka with 39%, Chesbro with 7%, and Kelley with 2%. 

Murkowski first took office in 2002. Tshibaka is a former commissioner at the Alaska Department of Administration. Chesbro is a retired teacher. Kelley is a retired mechanic.

Murkowski is the only Republican senator seeking re-election this year who voted guilty during former President Donald Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Murkowski’s endorsers include U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). Trump and the Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka. 

Louisiana Lt. Gov. Nungesser says he’ll run for governor next year

Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R) said that he plans to run for governor of Louisiana in 2023. The Associated Press also listed U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, U.S. Rep. Garret Graves, state Treasurer John Schroder, and Attorney General Jeff Landry as possible Republican contenders. 

AP wrote, “Louisiana is the rare conservative state to have a Democratic governor. The moderate [Gov. John Bel] Edwards won hard-fought races in 2015 and 2019, but he is unable to seek a third consecutive term due to term limits. That means 2023 is a huge opportunity for Republicans to take control of the state that voted for Donald Trump by wide margins in the past two presidential contests.”

According to the Louisiana Secretary of State office, 40% of registered voters are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 27% have a different affiliation. FiveThirtyEight gives the state a partisan lean—a measure of how the state votes compared to the country as a whole—of R+20.5.

Louisiana uses a majority-vote system in which all candidates, regardless of party, run in a preliminary election. If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, they win the election outright. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a second election.

Nungesser defeated Willie Jones (D) outright in 2019’s preliminary election for lieutenant governor. 

Edwards and Eddie Rispone (R) advanced from the preliminary gubernatorial election that year with 47% and 27%, respectively. Edwards won the final election 51.3%-48.7%.

Of the 17 states that elect governors and lieutenant governors separately, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Vermont have governors and lieutenant governors of different parties.

Ohio’s state legislative primary voter turnout decreased amid split election

Due to redistricting-related court challenges, Ohio held two primaries this year. The first, its regularly scheduled primary, took place on May 3 for all except state legislative offices. State legislative primaries occurred on Aug. 2. Turnout in the May 2022 primary was comparable to 2018 and 2020 primary turnout, while state legislative primary turnout specifically was lower this year than in 2018 and 2020.

The chart below compares unofficial voter turnout numbers in the Aug. 2 primary with official turnout numbers in the May primary, along with the official turnout numbers in the state’s previous primary elections through 2012.

Ohio’s Aug. 2 primary had the lowest voter turnout in a statewide primary election in at least a decade, with 661,101 votes cast. A look at votes cast in General Assembly elections in previous years shows that fewer people voted in these primaries in 2022. Votes cast in state Senate elections were 38% of the 2020 figure and 46% of the 2018 figure. In state House elections, 2022 primary votes were 41% of the 2020 figure and 45% of the 2018 figure. The chart below shows the total votes cast in state House and state Senate elections in 2022, 2020, and 2018.

Note: Ohio holds elections for all state House districts and half its state Senate districts in even-numbered years.

The Ohio Redistricting Commission’s state legislative maps underwent a lengthy legal challenge process involving several map submissions to the Ohio Supreme Court. A federal court order went into effect on May 28, selecting one of the submitted maps for use in the 2022 elections. The legal challenge to the legislative maps is ongoing before the state supreme court.

Ohio is one of two states that split its primaries this year due to redistricting legal challenges. Statewide turnout data is not yet available in New York, which held primaries on June 28 and Aug. 23.

Competitiveness data: Massachusetts

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive Massachusetts’ Sept. 6 primaries are compared to recent cycles. 

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

  • Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
  • Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.


Heart of the Primaries 2022, Democrats-Issue 37

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
September 1, 2022 at 3:28 PM

September 1, 2022

In this issue: Major endorsement splits in Massachusetts AG primary and a look at turnout in Ohio’s split primaries

Progressive endorsers split, candidate drops out of Massachusetts AG primary

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, and Boston’s former Acting Mayor Kim Janey endorsed labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan for Massachusetts attorney general. Politico Massachusetts Playbook‘s Lisa Kashinsky said the endorsements show the primary is “pitting the state’s most prominent progressives against each other.”

Incumbent Attorney General Maura Healey (D), Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), and Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) endorsed former Boston City Council member Andrea Campbell.

Campbell, Wu, and Janey served on the city council together and ran in last year’s Boston mayoral primary.

On Tuesday, former state Assistant Attorney General Quentin Palfrey announced his withdrawal from the race and endorsed Campbell. Palfrey won the state Democratic Party’s backing in June.

Kashinsky said Palfey had “been outpaced in fundraising by Campbell and trounced by Liss-Riordan, who’s now poured at least $4.8 million of her own money into her campaign. And he’s trailed in polling while Liss-Riordan is closing the gap with Campbell after blanketing the airwaves since early July.”

Also on Tuesday, The Boston Globe editorial board endorsed Campbell.

During debates, candidates have focused on criticizing each other’s fundraising and super PAC involvement in the race. On policy, Kashinsky wrote that Liss-Riordan is more supportive of rent control and that Campbell has said she wouldn’t interfere with local efforts to implement it. Kashinsky also wrote the candidates had different approaches to combating racism, with Campbell focused on Department of Corrections and prison reforms and Liss-Riordan emphasizing the Attorney General office’s civil rights division.

See Boston.com’s candidate Q&A here for more.

The primary is Sept. 6.

Peltola wins special U.S. House election (and other Alaska updates)

On Aug. 16, Alaska held top-four primaries and a special U.S. House election, the latter of which used ranked-choice voting. Certification is expected by tomorrow, and most battleground races have been called.

U.S House special general: Mary Peltola (D) won the election. On the final round of unofficial ranked-choice voting tabulation, Peltola had 51.5% of the vote to Sarah Palin’s (R) 48.5%. This election fills the term ending Jan. 3, 2023.

Before tabulation began, Peltola had 40% of first-choice votes, followed by Palin with 31% and Nick Begich III (R) with 28%. Write-in candidates received a combined 1.6% of the vote. 

Write-in candidates were eliminated first as a batch. Then Begich was eliminated. The votes of those who chose eliminated candidates as first choices were redistributed to the voters’ second-choice candidates if they chose such. Watch a livestream of the tabulation from the Alaska Division of Elections here.

Peltola will be Alaska’s first Democratic U.S. representative since Nick Begich Sr.—Nick Begich III’s grandfather. Begich Sr.’s plane went missing while he was in office in 1972. Don Young (R) won a special election to succeed Begich. Young served until his death in March of this year. 

Peltola, Palin, and Begich will meet again in the regularly scheduled general election for U.S. House in November. General elections for all offices below will be held Nov. 8 and will use ranked-choice voting as well.

U.S. House regular primary: As of Wednesday, The New York Times had called three of the four general election spots for Peltola, Palin, and Begich III. Peltola led with 37% of the vote, followed by Palin with 30%, Begich with 26%, and Tara Sweeney (R) with 4%. 

Sweeney said she’ll withdraw from the race, meaning the fourth spot would go to the fifth-place finisher. As of Wednesday, that was Libertarian Chris Bye, who had 0.6% of the vote. Sept. 2 is the target election certification date, and Sept. 6 is the ballot certification date. 

Alaska governor: Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R), Bill Walker (Independent), Les Gara (D), and Charlie Pierce (R) advanced to the general election. Dunleavy had 41% of the vote, followed by Walker and Gara with 23% each and Pierce with 7%.

Dunleavy was elected governor in 2018. He succeeded Walker, who initially ran for re-election that year and withdrew weeks ahead of the general election. Gara served in the state House of Representatives from 2003 to 2019. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

U.S. Senate: Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), Patricia Chesbro (D), and Buzz Kelley (R) advanced to the general election. Murkowski had 45% of the vote, followed by Tshibaka with 39%, Chesbro with 7%, and Kelley with 2%. 

Murkowski first took office in 2002. Tshibaka is a former commissioner at the Alaska Department of Administration. Chesbro is a retired teacher. Kelley is a retired mechanic.

Murkowski is the only Republican senator seeking re-election this year who voted guilty during former President Donald Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Murkowski’s endorsers include U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). Trump and the Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka. 

FL-04 recount shows Holloway still in lead

On Aug. 27, Clay, Duval, and Nassau counties’ canvassing boards conducted a machine recount of Florida’s 4th Congressional District Democratic primary votes. LaShonda Holloway remained in the lead, ending the recount with 207 more votes than Anthony Hill.

According to state law, a recount must be conducted when the margin of victory is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total votes cast. The 201 votes separating the candidates as of last week equaled around 0.34% of the total cast in the primary.

The winner faces Aaron Bean (R) in November. Election forecasters view this as a Safe Republican district.

This was one of several congressional primary recounts that have taken place this year. In addition to high-profile recounts in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate Republican primary and Texas’ 28th District Democratic primary runoff, others included Florida’s 22nd District GOP primary, Texas’ 15th District Democratic primary runoff, Wisconsin’s 2nd District GOP primary, and Georgia’s 10th District Democratic primary.

Ohio’s state legislative primary voter turnout decreased amid split election

Due to redistricting-related court challenges, Ohio held two primaries this year. The first, its regularly scheduled primary, took place on May 3 for all except state legislative offices. State legislative primaries occurred on Aug. 2. Turnout in the May 2022 primary was comparable to 2018 and 2020 primary turnout, while state legislative primary turnout specifically was lower this year than in 2018 and 2020.

The chart below compares unofficial voter turnout numbers in the Aug. 2 primary with official turnout numbers in the May primary, along with the official turnout numbers in the state’s previous primary elections through 2012.

Ohio’s Aug. 2 primary had the lowest voter turnout in a statewide primary election in at least a decade, with 661,101 votes cast. A look at votes cast in General Assembly elections in previous years shows that fewer people voted in these primaries in 2022. Votes cast in state Senate elections were 38% of the 2020 figure and 46% of the 2018 figure. In state House elections, 2022 primary votes were 41% of the 2020 figure and 45% of the 2018 figure. The chart below shows the total votes cast in state House and state Senate elections in 2022, 2020, and 2018.

Note: Ohio holds elections for all state House districts and half its state Senate districts in even-numbered years.

The Ohio Redistricting Commission’s state legislative maps underwent a lengthy legal challenge process involving several map submissions to the Ohio Supreme Court. A federal court order went into effect on May 28, selecting one of the submitted maps for use in the 2022 elections. The legal challenge to the legislative maps is ongoing before the state supreme court.

Ohio is one of two states that split its primaries this year due to redistricting legal challenges. Statewide turnout data is not yet available in New York, which held primaries on June 28 and Aug. 23.

Competitiveness data: Massachusetts

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive Massachusetts’ Sept. 6 primaries are compared to recent cycles. 

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

  • Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
  • Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.


Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 36 (August 25, 2022)

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
August 25, 2022 at 1:53 AM

August 25, 2022

In this issue: Primary results from Florida and New York and a look ahead to September

Primary results roundup

Florida and New York held statewide primaries Tuesday, while Oklahoma held a statewide primary runoff. We were watching four battleground Democratic primaries in Florida and New York. Here’s how those races unfolded:

Florida gubernatorial: Charlie Crist defeated Nikki Fried and two other candidates in Florida’s gubernatorial primary.

Crist had 60% of the vote to Fried’s 35%.

Crist, a U.S. Representative, won a single term as governor in 2006 as a Republican. Fried was elected state agriculture commissioner in 2018.

Crist will face incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) and six other candidates in the general election. Forecasters rate that election as Likely Republican.

New York’s 10th District: Dan Goldman defeated incumbent Mondaire Jones in New York’s 10th District.

Goldman was first with 26% of the vote, followed by Yuh-Line Niou with 24%. Jones was in 3rd place with 18%. 

Jones was elected to the 17th District in 2020 and ran in the 10th because of redistricting. The new 10th District does not overlap the old 17th District.

Goldman is a former prosecutor who was lead counsel during the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump (R). Niou has been a member of the state Assembly since 2017.

New York’s 12th District: Incumbent Jerrold Nadler defeated fellow incumbent Carolyn Maloney and two others, 55%-25%.

Nadler, who represents the 10th District, was running for re-election in the 12th following redistricting. This was the sixth and final incumbent v. incumbent primary of the year.

Both Nadler and Maloney were first elected in 1992 and campaigned as progressives. Nadler chairs the Judiciary Committee, and Maloney chairs the Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Nadler’s endorsers included U.S. Sens. Chuck Schumer (D) and Elizabeth Warren (D), while Maloney’s included the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC and EMILY’s List.

New York’s 17th District: Incumbent Sean Maloney defeated Alessandra Biaggi, 66%-33%.

Maloney was first elected to Congress in 2012 and chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Biaggi was elected to the state Senate in 2018 and was deputy national operations manager for Hillary Clinton’s (D) 2016 presidential campaign.

Maloney currently represents the 18th District but is running in the 17th due to redistricting.

Biaggi cast herself as the progressive candidate in the race. Maloney’s endorsers included former President Bill Clinton (D) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D), while Biaggi’s included U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) and the Working Families Party.

Media analysis

The New York Times wrote that incumbents had performed better last night than in recent cycles:

Not long ago, New York was a haven for young insurgent candidates who defeated powerful, well-funded incumbents up and down the ballot.

But despite clamoring among some Democratic voters this summer for generational change, and simmering frustrations with Democratic leadership after the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Tuesday was a strong night for the establishment, at least toward the top of the ticket.

In a newly redrawn New York district that includes parts of Westchester County and the Hudson Valley, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, 56, who chairs the Democratic House campaign committee, easily dispatched a challenge from State Senator Alessandra Biaggi, 36, who ran to his left.

In Manhattan, Suraj Patel, 38, a lawyer, ran an underdog campaign against Ms. Maloney and Mr. Nadler, two septuagenarians who were elected to Congress three decades ago. But his efforts to press a message that it was time for a new generation of leadership fell short against two established leaders. He came in third.

Politico wrote about the effect of the Dobbs decision on the Florida gubernatorial primary:

Everything we know about the overturning of Roe v. Wade is that it will likely be a major motivator for Democrats in the fall.

What abortion does not appear to be — given Nikki Fried’s wipeout in the Florida gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night — is singularly determinative.

Fried, the state agriculture commissioner — once heavily promoted as the future of the Democratic Party in the state — had spent much of the primary campaign casting her opponent, Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), as at best untrustworthy on the issue. Crist, a former Republican governor of the state before morphing into an independent and, eventually, a Democrat, said during his U.S. Senate run in 2010 that he would advocate for “pro-life legislative efforts.”

Even days before this year’s primary, when asked if he was “pro-life,” Crist responded, “I’m for life, aren’t you?” before adding, “I’ve been pro-choice in every single decision I’ve made that affects a women’s right to choose.“

So, what’s more important to Democrats than Roe?

Electability, it seems.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Three state legislative incumbents—two Democrats and one Republican—lost primaries in Florida and New York on Aug. 23. One incumbent faced a contested primary runoff in Oklahoma and won. Overall, there are 11 uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: four Democratic and seven Republican.

Across the 42 states that have held statewide primaries so far, 202 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 42 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 21 have Republican trifectas, and 11 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,479 seats up for election, 87% of the nationwide total.

Incumbent Delaware Auditor trails party-backed primary challenger following misdemeanor convictions

Last month, Delaware Auditor Kathy McGuinness (D) was convicted on three misdemeanor charges: conflict of interest, structuring, and official misconduct. The charges stemmed from McGuiness hiring her daughter to work in the auditor’s office as other employees’ hours were cut during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

This was the first instance of a sitting statewide elected official in Delaware being convicted of a crime. McGuiness faces maximum sentences of up to one year in prison for each misdemeanor count. Her attorney said they would appeal the case to the Delaware Supreme Court.

Following the conviction, leaders in both chambers of the state legislature called on McGuiness to resign. The Democratic Party of Delaware endorsed McGuinness’ primary challenger, Lydia York, in July. Party chairwoman Betsy Maron said, “We saw Ms. York’s candidacy as an opportunity to restore the Auditor’s office to its intended function and do away with the political theater that has kept the incumbent at center stage for all the wrong reasons.”

Campaign finance reports filed last week showed York having raised $47,000 since January to McGuinness’ $24,000.

The primary is Sept. 13.

Another poll shows McKee and Gorbea within margin of error in Rhode Island gubernatorial primary

A few updates since we last wrote about the Rhode Island governor’s race: 

A 12 News/Roger Williams University poll released on Aug. 16 showed incumbent Gov. Dan McKee at 28% and Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea at 25%, within the 4.9 percentage point margin of error. Helena Foulkes, who has held a number of executive positions with CVS Health, came third at 14%. Twenty-one percent of poll respondents were undecided, and 42% said there was a good chance they might change their minds before the election. 

McKee and Gorbea have been similarly close in other polls released over the past few months.  

WPRI’s Ted Nesi and Tim White wrote, “With just a three-point gap separating the two frontrunners, Rhode Islanders are likely to see an intense four-week sprint to the Sept. 13 primary[.] … Multiple campaigns are revving up their paid media this week[.]”

Forward Rhode Island, a group affiliated with the Laborers International Union of America, is spending $500,000 supporting McKee. According to The Providence Journal’s Katherine Gregg, the group is airing an ad “saying [McKee] is a known quantity in the gun control, voting and abortion-rights arenas.” A new McKee ad highlights his tax policy. 

According to Nesi and White, Gorbea is tripling her spending on ads heading into the primary. Gorbea recently began airing an ad in which she says, “As your governor, I will protect abortion rights no matter what.”  

Nesi also reported that Foulkes’ campaign intends to spend $1.2 million in August and September. Her latest ad focuses on her healthcare background. 

Former Secretary of State Matt Brown, who received 8% support in the 12 News poll, spent $50,000 on his first ad last week. In the ad, Brown and unofficial running mate Cynthia Mendes dance while their daughters speak to the camera, highlighting their parents’ support for progressive policies like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. 

Five candidates are running in the Sept. 13 primary.

Competitiveness data: New York

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive New York’s primaries were compared to recent cycles. The state legislative numbers include figures for both the state Senate primaries held earlier this week and the state Assembly primaries in June.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

  • Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
  • Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Nevada voters to consider implementing top-five primaries

Nevada voters will consider a constitutional amendment that would implement a top-five primary system in their state on this year’s November ballot.

Earlier this year, Alaska became the first state to hold top-four congressional primaries. 

The Nevada proposal would allow five candidates to advance from the primary. It would adopt the new voting system for state executive and state legislative elections as well as congressional races. The measure would not affect presidential or local elections.

Alaska is not the first state to end the use of partisan primaries for congressional nominations. California and Washington use a top-two system in which only two candidates advance from the primary, eliminating the need for ranked-choice voting in the general election. 

Louisiana uses a majority-vote system which is similar to the top-two system but allows a candidate who wins more than 50% of the primary vote to win the election outright.

Although Maine still uses partisan primaries, it uses ranked-choice voting for general elections for Congress.

Supporters of the initiative include the Institute for Political Innovation and Vote Nevada. Opponents include Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), U.S. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D) and Catherine Cortez-Masto (D), and the state branch of the AFL-CIO.

Nevada requires that initiated constitutional amendments win approval twice before taking effect. This means voters would need to approve the measure again in 2024 if it passes this year before the new system is adopted. 

Between 1985 and 2020, 73% of citizen-initiated constitutional amendments that made the ballot in Nevada won approval after voters passed them twice.



Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 36

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
August 25, 2022 at 1:02 AM

August 25, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from primaries in New York and a look ahead to New Hampshire

Primary results roundup

Florida and New York held statewide primaries Tuesday, while Oklahoma held a statewide primary runoff. We were watching two battleground Republican primaries in those states. Here’s how those races unfolded:

New York’s 23rd Congressional District: Nicolas Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino 51%-47%.

Langworthy is a former chairman of the New York Republican Party who was also a member of the executive committee for Donald Trump’s (R) presidential transition in 2016. Paladino was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2010 and co-chaired Trump’s 2016 campaign in New York.

Both candidates won endorsements from national Republicans. Langworthy’s endorsers included U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R), and Paladino’s included U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R).

The 23rd District is currently vacant following Tom Reed’s (R) resignation in May amidst an allegation of sexual misconduct. 

Election forecasters rate the general election Solid/Safe Republican.

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special runoff: Markwayne Mullin defeated T.W. Shannon 65%-35%.

Mullin is a member of the U.S. House who was first elected in 2012. Shannon is the CEO of Chickasaw Community Bank and a former state representative.

Mullin and Shannon were the top two finishers from a 13-candidate field running for the Republican nomination for the four remaining years in Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R) term. Inhofe will retire in January.

Mullin’s endorsers include former President Donald Trump (R), and Shannon’s included former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Media coverage

Politico wrote about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) endorsements:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ political muscle was on full display Tuesday night, as candidates he endorsed won a handful of key state legislative races and a wave of school board seats, which were a main focus for the governor in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm.

DeSantis’ biggest legislative win was Republican Kiyan Michael, who is running for a Jacksonville state House seat. Michael was running against more established and better funded politicians, including a former state representative.

DeSantis did not endorse until late in the race, but his support gave Michael immediate momentum to overcome her Republican rivals. She ended up securing 47 percent of the vote in a three-way primary.

…

For the final weeks of primary season, DeSantis put an outsized effort, including contributions from his personal political committee, into local school boards across the state. It’s part of his broader agenda to reshape Florida’s education system.

It worked. Of the 30 school board candidates that got DeSantis’ formal support, 21 won their election bids Tuesday night.

The Tampa Bay Times wrote about incumbents’ performance in Florida’s primaries:

If the Democratic establishment had a good night, the Republican Party institution had a great one.

Senate President Wilton Simpson comfortably defeated primary challenger James W. Shaw in the GOP primary for agriculture commissioner. Several incumbent U.S. representatives — Vern Buchanan, for example — crushed primary opponents challenging them from the right.

Then there were the candidates who lost.

During his two terms in office, state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, R-Howey-in-the-Hills, made enemies around the Florida Legislature. He repeatedly clashed with his own party’s leadership, calling Chris Sprowls, the top Republican in the Florida House, a RINO: Republican In Name Only. As Sabatini geared up for the 7th Congressional District GOP primary, it was apparent that top state Republicans were rooting for him to lose.

He did, by more than 10,000 votes, to veteran Cory Mills, whose campaign netted more than a dozen endorsements from GOP U.S. representatives. After the race was called, Sabatini blamed the result on “the Swamp.”

In The Villages-area 11th Congressional District primary, a similar story played out in far-right activist Laura Loomer’s challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster. Loomer, who has called Islam a “cancer on society,” lost the primary by about 5,000 votes. (She refused to concede Tuesday, citing “big tech election interference.”)

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Three state legislative incumbents—two Democrats and one Republican—lost primaries in Florida and New York on Aug. 23. One incumbent faced a contested primary runoff in Oklahoma and won. Overall, there are 11 uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: four Democratic and seven Republican.

Across the 42 states that have held statewide primaries so far, 202 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 42 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 21 have Republican trifectas, and 11 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,479 seats up for election, 87% of the nationwide total.

St. Anselm poll finds most voters undecided, Mowers and Leavitt about even in NH-01

A recent St. Anselm College poll shows that most Republican voters in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District are undecided about who they will vote for, with Matt Mowers and Karoline Leavitt leading.

The poll, conducted between Aug. 9-11, found Leavitt and Mowers about even with 25% and 21% support, respectively. The only other candidates to register more than 5% support were Gail Huff Brown at 9% and Tim Baxter at 8%. 

Another 33% of respondents said they were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.

Mowers was the 1st District nominee in 2020 and earlier served as an aide to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R). Mowers won 59% of the vote in the 2020 primary, defeating four other candidates, before losing to Chris Pappas (D), 51% to 46%, in the general election.

Leavitt worked as a presidential writer and assistant press secretary in President Donald Trump’s (R) administration. After Trump left office, Leavitt was communications director for U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik. 

Leavitt launched her first TV ad on Aug. 16, describing herself as a conservative outsider and New Hampshire native.

National Republicans are supporting both Mowers and Leavitt. Mowers’ endorsers include former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell and former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. 

Leavitt’s include U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), and U.S. Reps. Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.).

As of June 30, Mowers had raised $1.57 million to Leavitt’s $1.27 million.

Primaries in New Hampshire are semi-closed, meaning a voter must either be a member of the party or not be a member of any party in order to participate. 

The winner will face two-term incumbent Pappas. Two election forecasters rate the general election a toss-up, and a third says it tilts towards Democrats.

Poll shows over a third of New Hampshire Republicans are undecided in U.S. Senate race

Don Bolduc and Chuck Morse lead in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate primary, according to the same St. Anselm College poll that shows a tight race in the 1st Congressional District. 

The poll found Bolduc leading Morse 32% to 16%, with nearly 40% undecided. No other candidate had support from more than 5% of respondents. “It’s very unclear who’s going to win this,” said Fergus Cullen, a former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party.

According to Politico’s Natalie Allison, “two potentially decisive endorsements loom: That of former President Donald Trump, and [New Hampshire Gov. Chris] Sununu.” Though he has not endorsed a candidate, Sununu has criticized Bolduc, saying, “I don’t take Bolduc as a serious candidate. I don’t think most people do.”

In an Aug. 14 debate sponsored by the Government Integrity Project, Bolduc, Bruce Fenton, and Kevin Smith all said they doubted the outcome of the 2020 election. Bolduc said, “I signed a letter with 120 other generals and admirals saying Trump won the election, and damn it, I stand by [it].” Fenton said that “we can’t tell what’s true,” but that there was “a lot of fraud” during the election. Smith said “it’s very unlikely that Joe Biden got 81 million votes” and said he’d support investigations into the 2020 election if elected.

The three candidates also offered their positions on the FBI following the department’s search of former President Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago. “The first question we have to ask is, do we still need the FBI? If we answer that question no, then get rid of them,” Bolduc said. “It’s time to abolish the FBI and replace it with nothing,” Felton said. “I believe at its core, it’s a good institution, and I believe there are fine men and women who want to do their jobs and want to protect us,” Smith said.

As of June 30, Fenton had raised $1.6 million to Morse’s $1.3 million. Smith raised $700,000, and Bolduc raised $500,000.

The incumbent is Sen. Maggie Hassan (D), who was first elected in 2016. The two preceding Senate elections were split in competitiveness. In 2020, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) won re-election against Bryant Messner (R) by a margin of 15.6 percentage points. In 2016, Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) by 0.1 percentage points.

New Hampshire uses a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.

Competitiveness data: New York

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive New York’s primaries were compared to recent cycles. The state legislative numbers include figures for both the state Senate primaries held earlier this week and the state Assembly primaries in June.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

  • Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
  • Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Nevada voters to consider implementing top-five primaries

Nevada voters will consider a constitutional amendment that would implement a top-five primary system in their state on this year’s November ballot.

Earlier this year, Alaska became the first state to hold top-four congressional primaries. 

The Nevada proposal would allow five candidates to advance from the primary. It would adopt the new voting system for state executive and state legislative elections as well as congressional races. The measure would not affect presidential or local elections.

Alaska is not the first state to end the use of partisan primaries for congressional nominations. California and Washington use a top-two system in which only two candidates advance from the primary, eliminating the need for ranked-choice voting in the general election. 

Louisiana uses a majority-vote system which is similar to the top-two system but allows a candidate who wins more than 50% of the primary vote to win the election outright.

Although Maine still uses partisan primaries, it uses ranked-choice voting for general elections for Congress.

Supporters of the initiative include the Institute for Political Innovation and Vote Nevada. Opponents include Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), U.S. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D) and Catherine Cortez-Masto (D), and the state branch of the AFL-CIO.

Nevada requires that initiated constitutional amendments win approval twice before taking effect. This means voters would need to approve the measure again in 2024 if it passes this year before the new system is adopted. 

Between 1985 and 2020, 73% of citizen-initiated constitutional amendments that made the ballot in Nevada won approval after voters passed them twice.



Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 35

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
August 18, 2022 at 8:11 AM

August 18, 2022

In this issue: The big stories from Tuesday’s elections and satellite spending updates in two battleground House districts

Primary results roundup

Wyoming’s U.S. House District: Harriet Hageman defeated Rep. Liz Cheney 66%-29%. Hageman had backing from former President Donald Trump (R), dozens of incumbent House Republicans, and Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). Cheney’s supporters included Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), and former President George W. Bush (R).

Hageman founded the Wyoming Conservation Alliance and has worked as an attorney. In 2014, Hageman worked for Cheney’s unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign. Hageman said she challenged Cheney this year because of Cheney’s focus on the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. Cheney is vice chairwoman of the committee. 

Cheney has represented Wyoming in the House since 2017. She was the third-highest-ranking Republican when she chaired the House Republican Conference from 2018 to May 2021, when House Republicans voted to remove Cheney from the position after she criticized Trump and voted to impeach him. 

Cheney is the 12th House incumbent and eighth Republican to lose a primary this year. Five defeated incumbents faced fellow incumbents in primaries due to redistricting. 

Before we get into Alaska’s results, here’s a refresher: Alaska held top-four primaries for several offices and a ranked-choice special general election for U.S. House on Tuesday. This year’s are the first elections under the system voters approved in 2020.

Alaska’s special U.S. House election: This race won’t be callable until at least Aug. 31, the deadline for mail ballots to arrive for the special election. After all eligible ballots are in, election officials will begin ranked-choice voting tabulation. As of Wednesday, Mary Peltola (D) had 38% of first-choice votes, followed by Sarah Palin (R) with 32% and Nicholas Begich III (R) with 29%. Write-in candidates received votes as well. 

In initial rounds of tabulation, last-place finishers will be eliminated, and the votes from people who voted for those candidates will be redistributed to those voters’ second-choice candidates (if they ranked someone second). The process continues until one candidate receives a majority of votes.

Al Gross (I) had also advanced from the special top-four primary, but he withdrew from the race in June.

Rep. Don Young (R) died in March. The special election will fill the remainder of Young’s term, which ends Jan. 3, 2023. The winner will be sworn in after results are certified. Certification is currently scheduled for Sept. 2.

Alaska’s top-four U.S. House primary: Peltola, Begich, and Palin are leading the 22-candidate field with 35%, 31%, and 27%, respectively, as of Wednesday. Tara Sweeney (R) was fourth with 4% and Chris Bye (L) fifth with 1%. This is for the regular two-year term from January 2023-2025.

Alaska U.S. Senate top-four primary: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Kelly Tshibaka (R) led with 44% and 40%, respectively, as of Wednesday. Patricia Chesbro (D) had 6%, Buzz Kelley (R) had 2%, and five candidates had 1% each.

Murkowski is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year who voted guilty during Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Tshibaka is a former state Department of Administration commissioner. Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) endorsed Murkowski. Tshibaka has Trump’s and the state GOP’s endorsements.  

Alaska Governor top-four primary: Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) had 42%, and Les Gara (D) and Bill Walker (I) had 22% each as of Wednesday. Charlie Pierce (R) had 7% and Christopher Kurka (R), 4%. Five other candidates ran.

Walker was governor from 2014 to 2018 when Dunleavy was elected. Walker initially ran for re-election in 2018 but withdrew from the race. Gara is a former state House member, and Kurka currently serves in the chamber. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

Media analysis

Politico Huddle wrote about Cheney’s loss in the context of other Republicans who voted for impeachment: 

Of the 10 House Republicans who bucked their party and standard bearer of the new GOP to vote to impeach the-President [sic] Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 insurrection, just two are left with a chance to return to Congress next year.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the leading critic of Trump within the Republican party, was toppled last night by primary challenger Harriet Hageman, who embraced Trump and won his endorsement. Cheney is the fourth impeachment Republican to lose a primary this cycle. Four others chose retirement over a bruising reelection effort.

…

The last men standing are Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who succeeded in primaries but still must survive a general election.

“I have said since Jan. 6 that I will do whatever it takes to ensure that Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office, and I mean it,” Cheney said at the close of her concession speech in Jackson, Wyoming, last night.

“This primary election is over, but now the real work begins,” she said.

What that “real work” is, still isn’t clear. In the near term, Cheney will return to Capitol Hill for more Jan. 6 select committee hearings. She could mount a bid for the White House, though either a GOP primary or independent run would be long shots.

Our friends at Playbook scooped that Cheney will launch a new organization in the coming weeks “to educate the American people about the ongoing threat to our Republic, and to mobilize a unified effort to oppose any Donald Trump campaign for president,” Cheney spokesperson Jeremy Adler told Playbook.

Anchorage Daily News wrote about the challenges Alaska’s top three U.S. House candidates have faced and their prospects both in the current elections and in the regular general election:

Palin has a devoted following but is also resented by many longtime Alaskans who recall her decision to resign the governorship and become a reality television star. Begich is running with the support of the Alaska Republican Party establishment, but is battling an association with his Democratic uncle, former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich. Either Begich or Palin would have to rely on second-place votes in order to overtake Peltola in the ranked choice tabulation.
…
Matt Shuckerow, a political consultant who has previously worked for Young, said the results put Palin “in the driver’s seat.” If she remains in second position, he said she will likely get a sufficient number of Begich voters’ second-place votes to propel her ahead of Peltola.
…
After results came in Tuesday night, Begich said in a phone call that he remains “really optimistic” about his November run. Peltola’s campaign manager Anton McParland also said they were already looking ahead to November.

Shuckerow said the November election results could be different from the special election results. Turnout is typically significantly higher in November compared to the August primary, which can change both campaign strategies and the makeup of the voters.

…

John-Henry Heckendorn, a political consultant who runs Ship Creek Group, which has advised Peltola’s campaign, said the results are particularly encouraging for the Democrat’s campaign. Rural Alaskans and progressives — two groups that are likely to favor Peltola — have higher turnout in the November election. And Peltola has had less money to spend on getting her name out there, meaning that there are still many voters who aren’t familiar with her, polling suggests, he said.

“Mary has the biggest ceiling of any of the candidates,” Heckendorn said.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Fourteen state legislative incumbents—five Democrats and nine Republicans—lost primaries in Hawaii and Wyoming over the past week. No incumbents faced contested primaries in Alaska. Overall, there are seven uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: two Democratic and five Republican.

Across the 41 states that have held state legislative primaries so far, 198 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 41 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 20 have Republican trifectas, and 10 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,319 seats up for election, 85% of the nationwide total.

Updates from Utah’s U.S. Senate election: Republican vs. Republican-turned-independent

A Republican incumbent faces a Republican-turned-independent, two third-party candidates, and no Democratic challenger in Utah’s U.S. Senate election. 

Incumbent Sen. Mike. Lee (R) was first elected in 2010. Evan McMullin (I) is a former CIA officer and former policy director of the House Republican Conference. McMullin ran for president in 2016 as an independent. 

Lee voted for McMullin partly because of Trump’s proposal to temporarily prevent Muslims from entering the country. McMullin received 21.5% of the vote in Utah and 0.5% nationally.

In April, the state Democratic Party voted not to nominate a Senate candidate and endorsed McMullin. McMullin has said he won’t caucus with either party if he wins. 

Politico wrote that “McMullin says his state deserves two [Sen. Mitt] Romneys and vowed that ‘I will be in a coalition in the Senate as I am in Utah, with other pro-democracy senators.'”

According to The Wall Street Journal, “Divisions over Mr. Trump are set to be front and center in this year’s Senate race, with Mr. Lee having the backing of Mr. Trump—and Mr. McMullin calling the former president the reason he left the party.”

McMullin has criticized Lee’s initial support for legal challenges to the 2020 presidential election results immediately following the election, as shown in text messages between Lee and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

McMullin said, “When you advise spurious legal challenges to a free and fair election that were designed to convince tens of millions of Americans that the election was stolen … that is not what a constitutional conservative does.”

Lee said, “I made phone calls. The rumors were not true. And I voted to certify the election.”

Lee has criticized McMullin’s support for expanding background checks on gun purchases.

An independent poll from mid-July found Lee apparently leading McMullin 41% to 36%. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Put Utah First PAC spent $575,000 supporting McMullin last week. According to Federal Election Commission filings, that’s the first big satellite expenditure of the general election. Daily Kos wrote that Put Utah First PAC is “funded by Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman.” 

According to Open Secrets, Americans for Prosperity Action and the Senate Conservatives Fund have spent a combined $545,000 supporting Lee throughout the cycle.

More than $3 million in satellite spending in OK-02 primary runoff

The Frontier reported that two super PACs have spent more than $3 million combined in Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District between the June 28 GOP primary and next week’s primary runoff.

Avery Carl Frix and Josh Brecheen advanced from the 14-candidate primary field with 14.7% and 13.8%, respectively. Brecheen served in the state Senate from 2010 to 2018. Frix has served in the state House since 2016.

School Freedom Fund, a Club for Growth affiliate, is supporting Brecheen and has spent $1.8 million in the runoff. A recent ad features Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) saying Brecheen “opposed every tax increase in the legislature. He fought for parents’ rights in education. And he defended the Second Amendment.”

The Frontier wrote,

The group’s attacks on Frix have been trying to paint him as a pro-tax legislator, claiming in mailers he voted for $2.7 billion in tax hikes during his time in the Oklahoma House of Representatives. 

“They’re missing the fact that we were able to balance the budget,” Frix said. 

The Fund for a Working Congress has spent $1.3 million. According to The Frontier,

In mailers, Fund for a Working Congress accused Brecheen of wanting to end the electoral college, saying that if he “had his way Hillary Clinton would be President.”

“A half-truth is a whole lie,” Brecheen said. “They’re taking a vote out of context.”

Brecheen voted for a National Popular Vote bill in the state Senate in 2014 and said he regretted the vote.

Oklahoma’s 2nd District is open as incumbent Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R) is running in the special U.S. Senate election. This is a safe Republican district. The primary runoff is Aug. 23.

Florida’s 13th Congressional District primary leads the state in satellite spending 

Satellite groups have spent millions in Florida’s 13th Congressional District ahead of next week’s GOP primary, including more than $1.7 million in recent weeks both supporting and opposing two candidates: Kevin Hayslett and Anna Paulina Luna. 

Florida Politics’ Kelly Hayes wrote that political committees have spent $900,000 on pro-Hayslett/anti-Luna ads and $800,000 on pro-Luna/anti-Hayslett ads. 

According to Open Secrets, satellite groups have spent more in this race than in any other Florida primary for federal office this year. 

The highest spenders in the primary are Stand for Florida, supporting Hayslett, and Club for Growth Action, supporting Luna. Stand for Florida, a single-candidate super PAC, has spent $630,000 supporting Hayslett and $1.4 million opposing Luna. Club for Growth Action has spent $1.3 million opposing Hayslett and $620,000 supporting Luna.

Hayslett and Luna both completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. Click their names to read their full responses.

Hayslett, a private practice lawyer and former Florida assistant state attorney, said he was “running for Congress to lower taxes and protect our hard earned money.” He said, “We must combat our current affordability crisis, lower gas prices, and work to lower inflation that is crushing Florida families.” Hayslett said, “I am law enforcement’s choice for Congress, and will always support policies that protect our communities and support law enforcement.”

Luna, a U.S. Air Force veteran and conservative commentator who has worked for Turning Point USA and Prager U., said she wanted to “[b]ring America Back to Energy INDEPENDENCE aka American Oil from American Soil,” “[d]efund China and bring back American manufacturing,” and “[e]mpower people over government to include in our education system (parent’s rights), medical decisions (I am against mandates), and against big tech!”

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Luna in September 2021. 

Five candidates are running in the Aug. 23 primary. The winner will face Democrat Eric Lynn in the general election, which independent forecasters view as Likely Republican after redistricting. Incumbent Rep. Charlie Crist (D) is running for governor.

Competitiveness data: Florida

Florida’s primaries are on Aug. 23. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

  • Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
  • Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.


Heart of the Primaries 2022, Democrats-Issue 35

By Amee LaTour
In Newsletters
August 18, 2022 at 8:04 AM

August 18, 2022

In this issue: Alaska election takeaways and NYT‘s battleground endorsements

Primary results roundup

Alaska, Hawaii, and Wyoming held primaries over the past week. Here are results from battlegrounds in Alaska and Hawaii.

Before we get into Alaska’s results, here’s a refresher: Alaska held top-four primaries for several offices and a ranked-choice special general election for U.S. House on Tuesday. This year’s are the first elections under the system voters approved in 2020.

Alaska’s special U.S. House election: This race won’t be callable until at least Aug. 31, the deadline for mail ballots to arrive for the special election. After all eligible ballots are in, election officials will begin ranked-choice voting tabulation. As of Wednesday, Mary Peltola (D) had 38% of first-choice votes, followed by Sarah Palin (R) with 32% and Nicholas Begich III (R) with 29%. Write-in candidates received votes as well. 

In initial rounds of tabulation, last-place finishers will be eliminated, and the votes from people who voted for those candidates will be redistributed to those voters’ second-choice candidates (if they ranked someone second). The process continues until one candidate receives a majority of votes.

Al Gross (I) had also advanced from the special top-four primary, but he withdrew from the race in June.

Rep. Don Young (R) died in March. The special election will fill the remainder of Young’s term, which ends Jan. 3, 2023. The winner will be sworn in after results are certified. Certification is currently scheduled for Sept. 2.

Alaska’s top-four U.S. House primary: Peltola, Begich, and Palin are leading the 22-candidate field with 35%, 31%, and 27%, respectively, as of Wednesday. Tara Sweeney (R) was fourth with 4% and Chris Bye (L) fifth with 1%. This is for the regular two-year term from January 2023-2025.

Alaska Governor top-four primary: Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) had 42%, and Les Gara (D) and Bill Walker (I) had 22% each as of Wednesday. Charlie Pierce (R) had 7% and Christopher Kurka (R), 4%. Five other candidates ran.

Walker was governor from 2014 to 2018 when Dunleavy was elected. Walker initially ran for re-election in 2018 but withdrew from the race. Gara is a former state House member, and Kurka currently serves in the chamber. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

Hawaii Governor: Lt. Gov. Joshua Green won against Vicky Cayetano, Kaiali’i Kahele, and four other candidates in the gubernatorial primary on Aug. 13. Green had 63% of the vote to Cayetano’s 21% and Kahele’s 15%. Incumbent David Ige (D) is term-limited. 

Media analysis

Anchorage Daily News wrote about the challenges Alaska’s top three U.S. House candidates have faced and their prospects both in the current elections and in the regular general election:

Palin has a devoted following but is also resented by many longtime Alaskans who recall her decision to resign the governorship and become a reality television star. Begich is running with the support of the Alaska Republican Party establishment, but is battling an association with his Democratic uncle, former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich. Either Begich or Palin would have to rely on second-place votes in order to overtake Peltola in the ranked choice tabulation.
…
Matt Shuckerow, a political consultant who has previously worked for Young, said the results put Palin “in the driver’s seat.” If she remains in second position, he said she will likely get a sufficient number of Begich voters’ second-place votes to propel her ahead of Peltola.
…
After results came in Tuesday night, Begich said in a phone call that he remains “really optimistic” about his November run. Peltola’s campaign manager Anton McParland also said they were already looking ahead to November.

Shuckerow said the November election results could be different from the special election results. Turnout is typically significantly higher in November compared to the August primary, which can change both campaign strategies and the makeup of the voters.

…

John-Henry Heckendorn, a political consultant who runs Ship Creek Group, which has advised Peltola’s campaign, said the results are particularly encouraging for the Democrat’s campaign. Rural Alaskans and progressives — two groups that are likely to favor Peltola — have higher turnout in the November election. And Peltola has had less money to spend on getting her name out there, meaning that there are still many voters who aren’t familiar with her, polling suggests, he said.

“Mary has the biggest ceiling of any of the candidates,” Heckendorn said.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Fourteen state legislative incumbents—five Democrats and nine Republicans—lost primaries in Hawaii and Wyoming over the past week. No incumbents faced contested primaries in Alaska. Overall, there are seven uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: two Democratic and five Republican.

Across the 41 states that have held state legislative primaries so far, 198 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 41 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 20 have Republican trifectas, and 10 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,319 seats up for election, 85% of the nationwide total.

New York Times endorses in battleground congressional primaries (and a roundup of other news)

The New York Times endorsed Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler in the 12th District, and U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th. 

City & State New York wrote that the Times‘ mayoral primary endorsement last year helped Kathryn Garcia, who placed second, win in areas in the redrawn 10th and 12th Districts.

Goldman, lead counsel in the first impeachment proceeding against former President Donald Trump (R), is running alongside U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones (of the pre-redistricting 17th District), New York City Council member Carlina Rivera, state Assembly member Yuh-Line Niou, and several others. 

Nadler is running against U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney and Suraj Patel, who challenged Carolyn Maloney in 2018 and 2020.

Sean Patrick Maloney, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is running against state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi in the redrawn 17th.

Here’s a roundup of other news in these battleground districts:

In the 10th:

  • On Aug. 15, Jones and Niou held a joint press conference saying Goldman was trying to buy the seat. Jones referred to Goldman as a conservative Democrat. NY1 reported that Goldman has given his campaign $4 million. 
    • Goldman said in late July that until campaign finance reform happens, “it is important for us to try to match some of my competitors and level the playing field as a first-time candidate. So I want to spend more time with the voters, so I have agreed to put some of my own money in this race.”
  • An Emerson College poll showed Goldman with 24%, Niou with 18%, Jones with 17%, and Rivera with 15%. The margin of error was +/- 4.3 percentage points.
  • Six candidates participated in the first televised debate on Aug. 10.
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) endorsed Jones.
  • The Latino Victory Fund endorsed Rivera.
  • New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams (D) endorsed Niou. 

In the 12th:

  • The candidates participated in a debate on Aug. 9.
  • Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) endorsed Nadler.
  • Gloria Steinem endorsed Carolyn Maloney. 

And in the 17th:

  • The Police Benevolent Association (PBA) of the City of New York has spent $416,000 opposing Biaggi. PBA president Patrick Lynch called Biaggi a “privileged New York City radical.” 
    • Biaggi said Sean Patrick Maloney should “immediately condemn pro-Trump Super PAC interference in our Democratic primary.” 
    • Maloney’s campaign said, “It is the height of hypocrisy for Alessandra Biaggi to solicit over $100,000 in PAC and dark money support on her behalf, and then attempt to deny others the same right to be heard.”
  • The Working Families Party PAC spent $100,000 on ads supporting Biaggi and criticizing Sean Patrick Maloney for votes the group said were against the Affordable Care Act.
    • Maloney said the votes in question “go back to 2013 when the website wasn’t working and I thought people should have a little more time before we fine them.”
  • On Aug. 10, former President Bill Clinton endorsed Maloney. 

New York’s congressional primaries are Aug. 23.

Campaigns make final push in Florida’s gubernatorial primary

Heading into Florida’s Aug. 23 gubernatorial primary, candidates Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried are “flooding Floridians with phone calls, texts, door-to-door canvassers and mailers in the homestretch of an almost certain to be low-turnout” primary, according to the Tallahassee Democrat.

Recent polls have told very different stories about the state of the race. A St. Pete Polling survey from early August showed Crist leading Fried 56%-24%. A University of North Florida poll conducted last week showed them tied within the +/- 4.3 percentage point margin of error—Fried had 47% to Crist’s 43%.

The winner will face Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Both Crist and Fried say they’re the candidate most likely to defeat DeSantis in the general election. 

Crist, a U.S. House member, said, “I’ve got the experience, I’ve done the job, I’ve raised the money, I’ve got the endorsement of every major newspaper in the state.” 

Fried, the state agriculture commissioner, said Democrats “see I’m the one who has taken on Ron DeSantis the last three and a half years, that I’m able to tackle him on issue after issue and that I can get into the trenches and not just throw punches, but land them.”

Crist was elected governor as a Republican in 2006. He left the Republican Party in 2010 and lost the U.S. Senate election running as an independent that year. Crist ran for governor as a Democrat in 2014. Rick Scott (R) defeated Crist 48%-47%. Crist then defeated incumbent Rep. David Jolly (R) in the 2016 election for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, 52%-48%.

Fried defeated Matt Caldwell (R) by 6,753 votes in the open agriculture commissioner race in 2018. Fried is the only Democrat to win statewide elected office in Florida since 2012 when Barack Obama (D) won the state in the presidential election, and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D) was re-elected. (Nelson lost his 2018 re-election bid to Scott.)

Finance reports through June 30 showed Crist raised $11.7 million to Fried’s $2.5 million. 

Three independent forecasters rate the general election Likely Republican.

Competitiveness data: Florida

Florida’s primaries are on Aug. 23. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

  • Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
  • Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
  • Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.