TagHeart of the Primaries

August 11, 2022

In this issue: Highlights from this week’s primaries and a look at the Republican Main Street Partnership’s agenda 

Primary results roundup

Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin held primaries on Tuesday. Here are some highlights.

Wisconsin Governor: Tim Michels won with 47% of the vote to Rebecca Kleefisch’s 42% as of Wednesday morning. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Michels. Former Gov. Scott Walker and former Vice President Mike Pence endorsed Kleefisch. Michels faces Gov. Tony Evers (D) in the Toss-up general election.

Wisconsin State Assembly District 63: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos defeated Adam Steen 51% to 49%. Vos has been in office since 2005, and his peers chose him as speaker in 2013. Trump endorsed Steen the week before the primary.

Vermont U.S. House: Liam Madden won the primary with 41% of the vote as of Wednesday afternoon. Ericka Redic had 32% and Anya Tynio, 27%. Madden describes himself as an independent and said as of Wednesday he was deciding whether to accept the GOP nomination or run as an independent. In his Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey, Madden said, “The two party system prevents us from solving our problems. It doesn’t represent us, doesn’t work, drives us apart, and is controlled by elites.”

Also, some updates from Aug. 2 primaries:

Washington’s 3rd District and Washington’s 4th District: Each of these top-two primaries featured a Republican incumbent who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. In the 4th District, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) and Doug White (D) advanced. The 3rd District race isn’t called yet. As of Wednesday, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) had 31%, Trump-backed Joe Kent (R) had 23%, and Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) was third with 22%. Herrera Beutler conceded on Tuesday. If Herrera Beutler loses, she’ll be the 11th U.S. representative who ran for re-election and lost in a primary this year.

Arizona Governor: Kari Lake won with 48% to Karrin Taylor Robson’s 43%. This was another race where Trump and Pence backed different candidates, with Trump endorsing Lake and Pence endorsing Taylor Robson.

Media analysis

Courthouse News Service wrote about Michels’ and Kleefisch’s campaign messages and the possible effects a Republican governor would have on Wisconsin law:

Kleefisch’s campaign connected her to the Walker administration’s highest profile moves, including most prominently the passage of Act 10, a 2011 law that gutted the collective bargaining power of most public sector unions and sparked massive protests from what Kleefisch has called “the liberal mob.”

Michels, who unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate in 2004, ran a campaign based on his business acumen and disregard for the political culture in the state Capitol in Madison. The 60-year-old spent nearly $12 million of his own money on his campaign and cast himself as a disruptive candidate similar to Donald Trump, who endorsed Michels and stumped for him in Waukesha on Aug. 5.

Kleefisch, 47, was backed by Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence, Wisconsin’s most influential business and commerce lobbies, and important figures in the state Republican Party like Vos.

…

With the Wisconsin Legislature firmly in the control of Republicans for now — and very likely for the near future — either candidate as governor would have been likely to sign into law sweeping changes or maintain current conservative legislation on abortion, education and, maybe most importantly, elections.

Fox6 wrote about the conflict over the 2020 presidential election between Vos and Steen: 

Vos has had a hand in every major Republican initiative over the last decade.

Vos, and the Republican agenda, has been largely blocked by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers the past two years. Vos fell out of favor with Trump after he refused to push to decertify Biden’s win in Wisconsin. Vos, citing legal experts, said decertification was unconstitutional.

Steen, a landlord who has never served in public office, ran on the platform of decertifying the election. Days before the primary, he touted his support for banning all birth control.

The Cook Political Report said of Republican representatives who voted for impeachment:

Herrera Beutler’s loss, combined with Rep. Liz Cheney’s likely defeat in Wyoming next week and California Rep. David Valadao’s vulnerability in November, means it’s possible only one of ten pro-impeachment Republicans — Rep. Dan Newhouse (WA-04) will remain in Congress come January 2023. In the 4th CD, Newhouse only squeaked past extremely weak, Trump-endorsed small town sheriff Loren Culp 25%-21% to advance to the fall. 

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Six state legislative incumbents—four Democrats and two Republicans—lost in primaries over the past week in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Tennessee. No incumbents have lost in Vermont or Wisconsin, though races remain uncalled. Overall, there are 23 uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: nine Democratic, nine Republican, and five top-two.

Across the 38 states that have held state legislative primaries this year, 182 incumbents, 4.6% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 38 states that have held primaries, 10 have Democratic trifectas, 19 have Republican trifectas, and nine have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,106 seats up for election, 81% of the nationwide total.

Republican Main Street Partnership releases policy agenda

The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) released its agenda on energy, jobs, the supply chain, public safety and policing, and “standing for freedom.” Proposals include resuming Keystone Pipeline construction, decreasing the reduction of Social Security benefits for retirees who return to work, and instituting “strict guidelines to hold district attorneys and prosecutors accountable for the safety of their communities.”

Five U.S. senators and 62 U.S. representatives are members of RMSP. Roll Call‘s Kate Ackley wrote:

The effort is designed to give candidates a message to sell on the campaign trail. It also aims to build public support for what to expect and to avoid what [RMSP member] Rep. Mike Bost , R-Ill., said were problems that developed after Republicans took the House majority during Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration.

“I’m a conservative, but I watched, I watched last time people pursuing ‘No,'” Bost said, referring to colleagues whose goal was to block Obama’s agenda and even to thwart their own House speaker, such as John A. Boehner of Ohio. “We can’t pursue ‘No.’ We’ve got to govern.”

RMSP’s website says it is “dedicated to working across the aisle to enact common-sense legislation on issues such as healthcare, family issues, workforce development, the environment (including clean water), and transportation/infrastructure.”

The group’s PAC endorsed 17 U.S. House candidates this year, 14 of whom won contested primaries. One endorsee lost, and two have outstanding primaries. Allan Fung is running unopposed in Rhode Island’s 2nd District and Amanda Makki is running in Florida’s Aug. 23 13th District primary.

Makki is in a rematch with Anna Paulina Luna, who has Trump’s endorsement. Luna defeated Makki and three others in 2020 with 36% of the vote to Makki’s 28%. Rep. Charlie Crist (D), who is running for governor this year, defeated Luna in the general election 53-47%. Five candidates are running in this year’s GOP primary.

After redistricting, the 13th District went from Even to R+6 in Cook’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI), indicating a shift in favor of Republicans. The PVI compares each congressional district’s results from the last two presidential elections to the country’s results as a whole.  

Rep. Jackie Walorski dies, special election will be called for IN-02

U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) died in a car accident on Aug. 3. Walorski had represented Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District since 2013. Before that, Walorski served in the state House of Representatives and worked as a television reporter and nonprofit director. Walorski’s funeral will be held on Aug. 11 in Granger. 

According to state law, Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) must call a special election to fill the remainder of Walorski’s term ending Jan. 3, 2023, because the seat became vacant more than 74 days before the general election. Holcomb had not announced a date for the election as of Wednesday.

Democratic and Republican party officials will choose candidates for the special election. Since Walorski was running for re-election, Republicans will also select a candidate for the regular election ballot. 

The special election will use the current district lines, while the regular election will use lines drawn after redistricting. Cook‘s PVI for the district changed little after redistricting—from R+13 to R+14. 

Seventeen special elections have been or will be called during the 117th Congress. That’s tied with the 115th Congress for the most special elections over the past three decades.

Competitiveness data: Delaware and Hawaii

Hawaii’s primaries are on Aug. 13. Delaware holds primaries on Sept. 13. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Delaware

Hawaii

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

August 11, 2022

In this issue: Highlights from this week’s primaries and a look at conflicts in NY congressional races

Primary results roundup

Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin held primaries on Tuesday. Here are some highlights.

U.S. Senate

Wisconsin U.S. Senate: Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes won the primary with 78% of the vote. As we wrote last week, the three other top candidates withdrew in late July and endorsed Barnes. He’ll face incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in the competitive general election.

U.S. House

Minnesota’s 5th District: Rep. Ilhan Omar won with 50% to Don Samuels’ 48% as of Wednesday morning. We wrote in March about the conflicts in this primary over police policy and Omar’s vote against the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act last year. Omar was first elected in 2018. This is a Safe/Solid Democratic district.

Vermont At-Large District: State Senate President Pro Tempore Becca Balint won with 60% of the vote. Lt. Gov. Molly Gray was second with 36%. Election forecasters view Vermont’s lone House district as Safe or Solid Democratic. If she wins in November, Balint would be Vermont’s first female and first openly gay member of Congress. 

Media analysis

The Associated Press said Barnes and Johnson are casting one another as extreme and discussed polarization in the state:  

The Johnson vs. Barnes race will likely be one of the closest watched campaigns of the 2022 cycle. It pits a Republican who has drawn the ire of Democrats for his ties to former President Donald Trump and his adoption of a string of conspiracy theories against a Democrat who holds several progressive positions that Republicans believe make him out of step with most Wisconsin voters.

Although Johnson and Barnes are political opposites, they have already begun using strikingly similar language to define the other, calling one another “out of touch,” extreme and someone out of line with the state’s voters.

Wisconsin is one of the two Senate seats up this cycle that is currently held by Republicans in a state President Joe Biden won in 2020. The state has been a political hotbed ever since the 2011 fights over union bargaining rights, leading the electorate in the state to be polarized long before the 2016 election of Trump.

CNN wrote about the conflict between Omar and Samuels: 

Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar survived a primary challenge Tuesday, CNN projected — but barely, and the narrow result could encourage critics of the progressive “squad” member to try again in two years.

Omar, who is running for a third term in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, held off a primary challenge from former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels and three other Democratic primary candidates.

Samuels had run as a pro-police critic of Omar’s calls to “defund the police.” Samuels and his wife successfully sued the city of Minneapolis to force it to increase police staffing levels to the 741 officers required by the city’s charter.

Momentum behind what had been widely seen as a long-shot challenge built after Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey endorsed Samuels last week. He was also backed by building trades unions, several suburban mayors and more moderate DFL leaders. His close call could inspire another effort to oust Omar in 2024.

Omar’s victory comes the week after two other liberal members of the “squad,” Missouri Rep. Cori Bush and Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, also beat back primary challenges.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Six state legislative incumbents—four Democrats and two Republicans—lost in primaries over the past week in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Tennessee. No incumbents have lost in Vermont or Wisconsin, though races remain uncalled. Overall, there are 23 uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: nine Democratic, nine Republican, and five top-two.

Across the 38 states that have held state legislative primaries this year, 182 incumbents, 4.6% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 38 states that have held primaries, 10 have Democratic trifectas, 19 have Republican trifectas, and nine have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,106 seats up for election, 81% of the nationwide total.

Recent polling and friction in NY-12

A recent Emerson College poll in New York’s 12th Congressional District primary showed Rep. Jerry Nadler with 40% to Rep. Carolyn Maloney’s 31%. Suraj Patel was third with 11%, and 17% were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points.

As we wrote previously, Nadler and Maloney have both served in the House since 1993 and are running against one another due to redistricting. Patel challenged Maloney in 2018 and 2020. 

At an Aug. 2 debate, the candidates largely agreed on current policy issues while responding differently to the question of whether President Joe Biden should run for re-election. Patel said, “Yes.” Nadler said it was “too early to say.” Maloney said, “I don’t believe he’s running for re-election.” (Maloney later said she’ll support Biden if he runs.)

Other responses showed friction between the candidates. According to Politico, 

Nadler and Maloney, who call each other friends despite their current rivalry, at times teamed up against Patel, though the long-time Upper West Side congressman pointed to policy differences he’s had with his House colleague.

He opposed both the U.S. invasion into Iraq and the post-Sept. 11 PATRIOT Act, both of which she supported; he embraced America’s Iran nuclear deal, which she opposed.

Patel said that “1990s Democrats have lost almost every major battle to Mitch McConnell and Republicans. Trumpism is on the rise, even if we defeated Trump. … To defeat it, we need people with new ideas and energy.”

Patel criticized Maloney’s 2012 comments about a possible link between vaccines and autism. Maloney said she regrets her past questioning and that she worked to increase COVID-19 vaccination rates in her district. Patel also criticized Nadler for endorsing Maloney in 2020 in light of her previous comments. Nadler said Maloney was a better candidate than Patel in 2020 and still is. 

The primary is Aug. 23.

DCCC ad spending an issue in NY-17

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chair Sean Patrick Maloney is facing criticism from primary challenger Alessandra Biaggi and Democratic elected officials over the DCCC’s ad spending in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, where Rep. Peter Meijer (R) lost to John Gibbs in last week’s Republican primary. 

Before the primary, the DCCC spent $450,000 on an ad calling Gibbs “too conservative for West Michigan” and highlighting Trump’s endorsement of Gibbs. Politico wrote that Democrats see Gibbs as an easier candidate to beat than Meijer in the general election.

Maloney represents New York’s 18th Congressional District and is running in the redrawn 17th against Biaggi. 

On July 27, Biaggi said Maloney was “wasting valuable Democratic resources by investing in far-right Republicans instead of funding Democratic candidates. This is a dangerous investment and asymmetric risk. Just a few years ago, many Democrats also wrongly believed Donald Trump winning the Republican primary would ensure a Democratic Presidential victory — and they were sorely mistaken.”

Maloney campaign spokesperson Mia Ehrenberg said, “Unlike his primary opponent, Congressman Maloney has experience winning tough elections in a Trump district and reaching swing voters, which is why he was chosen by his peers to lead the DCCC during this critical moment. Just as he’s won close elections in the past, he will lead the party to victory this November.”

Maloney more recently responded to criticism from Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) about the Gibbs ad: “It’s flat wrong to say that we were promoting an election denier. We were attacking an election denier.”

Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), and Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) are among Democratic House members who’ve criticized the DCCC ad. In addition, 35 former Democratic members of Congress and governors signed a letter saying, “The DCCC should never be working on Trump’s side in Republican primaries to bolster and promote a candidate who undermines our constitution and democratic system.”

DCCC spokesperson Helen Kalla said, “Kevin McCarthy is an anti-choice insurrectionist coddler and conspiracy enabler, and we will do what it takes to keep the speaker’s gavel out of his hands.”

New York’s U.S. House and state Senate primaries are on Aug. 23.

Union endorsers split in Rhode Island governor’s race 

On Aug. 4, the Rhode Island Council 94 American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) endorsed incumbent Gov. Dan McKee. The same day, the Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals endorsed Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea for governor. Each union represents more than 10,000 public and private sector employees.

McKee also has endorsements from the National Education Association Rhode Island, the Rhode Island AFL-CIO, and other unions. Gorbea’s union endorsers include the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 328, the Carpenters Union Local 330, and the United Steelworkers Local 12431.

Polls have shown McKee and Gorbea leading the five-candidate Democratic primary field. 

McKee took office in March 2021 after former Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) was appointed U.S. secretary of commerce. McKee had served as lieutenant governor since 2015. McKee said he is running “to deliver an economic recovery from the pandemic that improves our state’s economy for this generation of Rhode Islanders and the next.” McKee said he’s “provided the experience Rhode Island needs” as governor. 

Gorbea has served as Rhode Island’s secretary of state since 2015. Gorbea said she is running “to make government more accountable to the people, to bring diverse voices to the table and connect people to hopeful opportunities that will help them thrive.” She said, “I am the only candidate who’s actually transformed an agency of government in Rhode Island[.]”

The primary is on Sept. 13.

Competitiveness data: Delaware and Hawaii

Hawaii’s primaries are on Aug. 13. Delaware holds primaries on Sept. 13. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Hawaii

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

August 4, 2022

In this issue: Michigan’s battleground primary takeaways and Vermont’s U.S. Senators weigh in on House race

Primary results roundup

Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington held statewide primaries on Tuesday. Ohio held state legislative primaries. We followed two battleground Democratic primaries in Michigan closely.

Michigan’s 11th District: U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens defeated U.S. Rep. Andy Levin 60%-40%, according to results available Wednesday morning. 

This race was one of six incumbent-vs.-incumbent House primaries, and one of four featuring two Democratic incumbents, because of redistricting. Michigan lost one congressional district following the 2020 census. According to Daily Kos data, the redrawn 11th contains about 45% of the old 11th, which Stevens has represented since 2019. The new 11th contains about 25% of the old 9th District, which Levin has represented since 2019.

Levin is one of 10 House incumbents, and one of four Democrats, who ran for re-election and lost in primaries this year. Two of the other defeated Democratic incumbents lost to fellow incumbents. In 2020, eight incumbents lost primaries, including three Democrats. 

Stevens’ backers included Hillary Clinton, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Levin had endorsements from U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and J Street. 

Michigan’s 12th District: Incumbent Rashida Tlaib defeated three candidates. Based on results as of Wednesday morning, Tlaib received 64% of the vote and Janice Winfrey finished second with 20%.

Tlaib represents Michigan’s old 13th Congressional District and ran in the redrawn 12th. U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D), the old 12th District’s representative, ran in the redrawn 6th District.

Tlaib was first elected to Congress in 2018. Winfrey is Detroit’s city clerk. According to election forecasters, this is a safe Democratic district.

Media analysis

CNN discussed Stevens’ win as a loss for progressives and a win for AIPAC: 

Rep. Haley Stevens’ projected Democratic primary victory in Michigan’s newly drawn 11th Congressional District over fellow Rep. Andy Levin marks another blow against progressives in what has been a mostly disappointing primary season.

It’s also a resounding victory for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, and its super PAC, United Democracy Project, which has spent millions backing moderate, more staunchly pro-Israel candidates in Democratic primaries.

Stevens and Levin are both supportive of Israel, but Levin — who is Jewish — has been more willing to criticize its government’s treatment of Palestinians and is the lead sponsor of the Two-State Solution Act.

Progressive Democrats, frequently targeted by AIPAC spending this primary season, have fumed at fellow Democrats for accepting or courting support from the group, which has also contributed to Republican election deniers. AIPAC has defended the practice, arguing that its policy goals need bipartisan support.

J Street, a liberal pro-Israel group that has clashed with AIPAC, tried to boost Levin with a $700,000 July ad buy, but that sum paled in comparison to the millions bundled by AIPAC and more than $4 million spend by UDP.

Al Jazeera‘s Ali Harb wrote about Tlaib’s win in the context of a satellite group supporting one of her opponents and of Tlaib’s 2021 infrastructure bill vote:  

US Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib has all but secured re-election after comfortably fending off primary challengers and an advertising campaign by a pro-Israel group. 

…

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a lobbying group, has been spending millions of dollars to defeat progressives critical of Israel, but it did not interfere in the Tlaib race.

However, a new pro-Israel group called the Urban Empowerment Action (UEA) PAC (political action committee) spent nearly $700,000 backing Winfrey, according to Open Secrets, a website that tracks US election spending.

…

The congresswoman’s detractors often slam her criticism of Israel as a US ally and question her loyalty to the mainstream Democratic Party and President Joe Biden.

Tlaib was one of six progressive House Democrats to vote against the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that Biden signed into law last November.

Progressives – and at some point Biden himself – wanted the bill to pass simultaneously with the president’s now-doomed Build Back Better social spending agenda, priced at $1.75 trillion.

Tlaib and her fellow progressives had hoped to use the vote on the infrastructure bill as leverage to convince conservative Democrats to advance the Build Back Better package.

But the congresswoman’s “no” vote on the infrastructure legislation became one of the main points of criticism against her in the primary race.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Thirteen state legislative incumbents—six Democrats and seven Republicans—lost in the Aug. 2 primaries in Kansas, Ohio, and Missouri. No incumbents have lost in Arizona, Michigan, or Washington so far, but this will likely change. Eighty-seven House and Senate primaries featuring incumbents—24 Democratic, 33 Republican, and 30 top-two—remain uncalled.

Across the 33 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 156 incumbents, 4.7% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 33 states that have held primaries so far, nine have Democratic trifectas, 18 have Republican trifectas, and six have divided governments. Across these states, there are 4,306 seats up for election, 70% of the nationwide total.

Three leading candidates withdraw from Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate primary and endorse Barnes

Three of the four candidates who led in fundraising and media attention in Wisconsin’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary ended their campaigns last week and endorsed Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

Former state Rep. Tom Nelson ended his campaign on July 25. Nelson said, “It didn’t look like we were in a strong position” and that it “made sense to consolidate the progressive vote.”

Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry announced his withdrawal on July 27: “After talking with [U.S. Sen.] Tammy [Baldwin (D)] and seeing the data, I think it was clear there was no path forward for us to be able to win. We wanted to make sure we were able to unite and rally our support to ensure we’re spending every second we can to get Ron Johnson out of office.”

State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski ended her campaign on July 29, saying, “I know that we’re better when we all come together. If there is one thing we know about Mandela Barnes is he is no stranger to running statewide.”

Barnes said in a statement, “This week has demonstrated what it looks like when we come together for a goal that is greater than ourselves. We are building a coalition that crosses generations, crosses racial divides and political divides. A coalition that includes farmers, union leaders, teachers, small business owners, and working people all across this state.”

Barnes had received endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus Political Action Committee, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and U.S. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.).

Godlewski’s, Lasry’s, and Nelson’s names will still appear on the Democratic primary ballot due to the timing of their withdrawal.

The primary is on Aug. 9. Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is running for a third term. Wisconsin is one of two states President Joe Biden won in 2020 that is holding an election for a Senate seat a Republican holds this year. In the other state—Pennsylvania—Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is not seeking re-election.

Vermont’s U.S. Senators weigh in on House primary

The winner of Vermont’s lone U.S. House race in November will become part of the state’s three-member congressional delegation, along with two U.S. senators. Both senators have weighed in on the Democratic primary. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed state Sen. Becca Balint in the House primary and appeared at rallies with her in Burlington, Montpelier, and Rutland over the weekend. Sanders told VTDigger, “[I]t’s imperative that we have people in Washington who are prepared to think outside of status quo thinking, who are prepared to stand up to very powerful special interests who dominate the economic and political life of this country. And I think Becca will be one of those people.”

Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), who has not made an official endorsement, said he voted early for Lt. Gov. Molly Gray in the House primary: “While I think highly of both of the leading candidates, I voted for Molly Gray because I believe her experience is well suited to the job. … Her work in Congress, her legal training, her deep connections to Vermont communities.”

A recent University of New Hampshire poll showed Balint leading Gray 63% to 21%. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 5 percentage points.

Sianay Chase Clifford, a former staffer for U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), withdrew from the primary last month. The Vermont Progressive Party had endorsed Chase Clifford.

Chase Clifford said, “I really wanted to be able to tell the story that you don’t need to do this with a lot of money and that regular people should be able to do this. … Unfortunately, what is really kind of sick and twisted about electoral politics is if that’s your message, you still need money to be able to share that message.”

Balint and Gray reported raising more than $1 million as of July 20. Chase Clifford had $21,000. 

The primary is Aug. 9.

Points of contention in Hawaii’s gubernatorial primary

Former Hawaii first lady and businesswoman Vicky Cayetano, Lt. Gov. Josh Green, and U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele are running in Hawaii’s gubernatorial primary. Points of contention in the race include Green’s financial records, a telescope project, and marijuana legalization.

Cayetano and Kahele held a joint press conference on July 27 where they called on Green to release certain financial records. Hawaii Public Radio’s Sabrina Bodon wrote, “The pair renewed calls for Green to share records regarding his finances and links to three limited liability companies. They said the LLCs have contributed up to $1 million to Green’s income over the years.” 

According to Hawaii News Now, “[M]ost of the allegations they made and questions they raised have been heard before. … Kahele and Cayetano also repeated that Green paid a $1,000 fine over disputed mainland contributions when he ran for lieutenant governor. Even though those facts aren’t new, both say Green hasn’t responded adequately.”

According to Bodon, “Green has said one LLC was used for his income as a doctor, and asserted that other calls of unethical behavior have either been clerical errors or taken out of context.”

In a campaign ad that aired the day of the press conference, Green said, “When campaigns get desperate, sometimes they start attacking instead of talking about the issues that really matter to people. … But you know me. I’m gonna keep talking about building affordable housing, fighting homelessness, and lowering the cost of living.”

Cayetano, Green, and Kahele disagree on the proposed Thirty Meter Telescope project, a plan to construct a $2.65 billion telescope on the summit of the Mauna Kea volcano. Cayetano supports it, Kahele opposes the plans as they stand, and Green expressed disappointment in the handling of the project, saying he supported large projects like the telescope if they were done with respect between cultures. 

According to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser‘s Dan Nakaso, the candidates also disagree on recreational marijuana legalization. Nakaso wrote, “Kahele and Green support legalizing recreational marijuana, with caveats, while Cayetano is opposed.”

A poll conducted for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser in mid-July showed Green at 55%, Cayetano at 19%, and Kahele at 16%. The margin of error was +/- 5.6 percentage points. 

Seven candidates are running in the primary on Aug. 13. 

Competitiveness data: TN, CT, MN, and WI

Tennessee holds primaries on Aug. 4. Connecticut, Minnesota, and Wisconsin hold primaries on Aug. 9. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Tennessee

Connecticut

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

July 21, 2022

In this issue: Cox wins Maryland gubernatorial primary and Pence counters Trump in Arizona

Note: We’re taking a break from The Heart of the Primaries next week—we’ll see you again on Aug. 4 with takeaways from that week’s primaries and more!

Dan Cox wins Maryland gubernatorial primary

Dan Cox won the Republican primary for Maryland governor, defeating Robin Ficker, Kelly Schulz, and Joe Werner. With 80% of the expected vote in, Cox led Schulz 56% to 40%. (Mail ballot counting didn’t begin until Thursday morning, but outlets didn’t believe there were enough of those ballots to affect the outcome.)

Cox is an attorney who has served in the state House of Delegates since 2018. Schulz, who has worked in the defense and cybersecurity industries, served as Maryland’s secretary of commerce from 2019 through January of this year.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Cox, while outgoing Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed Schulz. Media observers referred to the primary as a proxy battle between Trump and Hogan. Hogan said in 2020 he wrote in Ronald Reagan for president rather than voting to re-elect Trump. Hogan said Wednesday he would not support Cox in the general election.

The Cook Political Report shifted its general election race rating from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic on Wednesday. 

Media analysis

Politico and The Wall Street Journal wrote about factional conflict in the gubernatorial primary and the Democratic Governors Association ads about Cox.

Politico wrote:

The win for Cox … who has full-throatedly embraced Trump’s repeated falsehoods about fraud in the 2020 election, scored the former president a victory in his fight with Hogan over the direction of the party both in the state and nationally.

Hogan had backed Kelly Schulz, a former state lawmaker who served in his Cabinet until earlier this year. The Hogan political machine mobilized for Schulz, with prominent advisers to the governor lending a hand to Schulz’ campaign.

“Get rid of Shutdown RINO Larry Hogan who is trying to get another RINO into office, Kelly Schulz,” Trump said in a statement on Monday.

The closing weeks of the race were dominated by the Democratic Governors Association, which dropped a multi-million ad campaign “attacking” Cox as too loyal to Trump. The DGA has insisted it was merely getting a head start on the general election, casting Cox as the frontrunner — despite public polling in the run-up to Tuesday showing Cox and Schulz deadlocked. But the campaign was widely seen as an attempt to boost the more extreme candidate in the Republican primary, in hopes that Cox would be easier to beat in the general election.

The Wall Street Journal wrote:

The primary election outcome sets up what political analysts predict will be an uphill battle for Mr. Cox in the November general election, given that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1 in Maryland and that President Biden defeated Mr. Trump 65% to 32% in 2020.

Maryland, whose incumbent is outgoing moderate Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, is one of the few largely Democratic states where the GOP currently holds the governor’s office.

…

Mr. Cox pledged to cut taxes, stop what he calls gender indoctrination of schoolchildren and “end the blood running in our streets with high crime and drug deaths.” He has said he thinks the 2020 presidential election was stolen and would order a “forensic audit” of that year’s election.

… Ms. Schulz had hoped to follow Mr. Hogan’s playbook by assembling a coalition of Republicans, independents and Democratic voters in the general election had she won the primary.

Political analysts say Mr. Cox likely benefited from the roughly $1.2 million in advertising that the Democratic Governors Association was projected to air in the primary. The DGA ran an ad highlighting Mr. Cox’s antiabortion and gun-rights stances, his false claim that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent, and Mr. Trump’s endorsement. It also labeled him as too conservative for Maryland.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

No state legislative incumbents in Maryland have lost in primaries so far. But this will likely change. With vote totals remaining incomplete, 55 House and Senate primaries featuring incumbents—38 Democratic and 17 Republican—remain uncalled. 

Across the 27 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 135 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 27 states that have held primaries so far, eight have Democratic trifectas, 15 have Republican trifectas, and four have divided governments. Across these 27 states, there are 3,525 seats up for election, 57% of the nationwide total.

Pence, Ducey endorse for Arizona governor and secretary of state, countering Trump

In the last couple of weeks, former Vice President Mike Pence and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey have added to their lists of endorsements countering those of former President Trump.

Pence endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson for Arizona governor. This is Pence’s fourth gubernatorial endorsement of 2022 and the second in which he has clashed with Trump. Trump backed Kari Lake for Arizona governor. Earlier this year, Pence endorsed Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Trump-endorsed David Perdue in the primary.

AZCentral reported that Pence is scheduled to attend events for Taylor Robson in Phoenix and elsewhere on Friday, while Trump is holding a rally for Lake that day in Prescott Valley.

As we wrote last week, Ducey also endorsed Taylor Robson. Ducey is term-limited.

Ducey recently endorsed Beau Lane for secretary of state. Lane faces Mark Finchem, whom Trump endorsed, and two others in the GOP primary.  

Ducey said, “The 2022 elections haven’t even been held yet, and already we’re seeing speculation doubting the results — especially if certain candidates lose. … It’s one of the most irresponsible things I can imagine.”

AZCentral reported, 

Late last month, at a campaign stop in Chandler, Finchem said he would not concede his race if there was any suggestion of wrongdoing.

“There ain’t gonna be no concession speech coming from this guy,” Finchem said. “I’m going to demand 100% hand count (of ballots) if there’s the slightest hint of any impropriety. And I would urge the next governor to do the same thing.”

Arizona’s secretary of state, Katie Hobbs (D), is running for re-election.

President Joe Biden defeated Trump 49.4% to 49.1% in Arizona in 2020. Three forecasting outlets rate the gubernatorial general election a Toss-up.

The primaries are Aug. 2.

Chambers of Commerce endorse Rep. Peter Meijer in MI-03

The U.S., Michigan, and Grand Rapids Chambers of Commerce all recently endorsed U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer for re-election in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District. In addition, Roll Call reported that “GOP super PAC Defending Main Street launched a six-figure mail blitz supporting Meijer.”

Meijer was one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6. Trump endorsed his primary challenger, John Gibbs. Gibbs said Meijer “chose to be fawned over by the media & the DC establishment instead of doing what’s right & representing those who voted for him.”

Meijer said, “I take the oath I swore to the Constitution, an oath I took under God, seriously and voted accordingly.”

Meijer was elected in 2020 and served in the Army Reserve. Trump appointed Gibbs acting assistant secretary for community planning and development in 2020 after Gibbs served as a senior advisor at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The primary is Aug. 2. The winner will face Hillary Scholten (D) in the general election. Meijer defeated Scholten 53%-47% in 2020. Redistricting made the 3rd District more Democratic–leaning. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

Cheney trails Hageman in first Wyoming U.S. House primary poll

A recent Mason-Dixon poll sponsored by the Casper Star-Tribune showed Harriet Hageman leading incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney 52% to 30% in Wyoming’s GOP House primary. Eleven percent were undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Cheney was first elected in 2016. She won the 2020 GOP primary with 74% of the vote. 

Hageman founded the Wyoming Conservation Alliance and worked for Cheney’s unsuccessful 2014 U.S. Senate campaign. Hageman said she is challenging Cheney because “when she embraced Nancy Pelosi and voted for the partisan impeachment of President Donald Trump, she betrayed our nation, she betrayed Wyoming, and she betrayed me.” Earlier this month, we wrote about the candidates’ divergence on the 2020 presidential election results and the Jan. 6 investigative committee.

Cheney raised $13.1 million to Hageman’s $3.9 million through June 30.

Wyoming’s primary is on Aug. 16.

Followup: Whatley withdraws in Alabama Senate District 27

On July 1, state Sen. Tom Whatley withdrew from the race for Alabama Senate District 27, leaving Auburn City Council member Jon Hovey as the Republican nominee in November.

As we wrote previously, Whatley, the 27th District’s incumbent, had challenged the May 24 primary results, which had him trailing Hovey by one vote. The Alabama Republican Party then declared the race a tie after deciding to count a provisional ballot it previously rejected for Whatley. The party announced the race would be decided by a coin toss.

Hovey requested a rehearing after the Alabama Law Enforcement Agency (ALEA) said the voter who cast the provisional ballot in question hadn’t completed the paperwork needed to get an Alabama driver’s license and complete her voter registration. The party agreed to Hovey’s request and scheduled a meeting for July 1. Whatley withdrew before the meeting took place. 

Whatley said, “I am the Republican nominee who was voted by Republicans in my district. With that said, I now believe that it is in the best interest of my friends, colleagues, family, and the Republican Party, for me to step away from this tied race so that we can move forward and have success in November.”

Hovey said, “This has been a potentially divisive experience. But we have maintained that we would be successful by standing with integrity and running a clean campaign about me and my desire to serve.” 

Hovey will face Democrat Sherri Reese in the November general election. 

Competitiveness data: Michigan and Ohio

On Aug. 2, Michigan holds statewide primaries and Ohio holds state legislative primaries. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Michigan

Ohio

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

July 21, 2022

In this issue: Maryland’s gubernatorial primary TBD and Sanders endorses Barnes for Senate in Wisconsin

Note: We’re taking a break from The Heart of the Primaries next week—we’ll see you again on Aug. 4 with takeaways from that week’s primaries and more!

Maryland gubernatorial primary too close to call

Wes Moore and Tom Perez led the 10-candidate Maryland gubernatorial primary as of Wednesday afternoon. Moore had 37% of the vote to Perez’s 27%, with 61% of the expected vote in.

According to The Washington Post, it could be several days until a winner can be declared. Voters requested a record number of mail ballots—around 500,000. According to state law, these ballots can’t be counted until July 21 at 10 a.m. The Post wrote, “Election officials estimate that some counties will finish counting their mail-in ballots by July 29, but others won’t until the first week of August.”

Moore, the former CEO of the Robin Hood Foundation, had endorsements from the Maryland Education Association and three members of Maryland’s congressional delegation. Perez, a former Democratic National Committee chairman, had endorsements from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and The Washington Post and The Baltimore Sun editorial boards.

Dan Cox won the Republican primary. The Cook Political Report shifted its general election race rating from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic on Wednesday. 

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

No state legislative incumbents in Maryland have lost in primaries so far. But this will likely change. With vote totals remaining incomplete, 55 House and Senate primaries featuring incumbents—38 Democratic and 17 Republican—remain uncalled. 

Across the 27 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 135 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 27 states that have held primaries so far, eight have Democratic trifectas, 15 have Republican trifectas, and four have divided governments. Across these 27 states, there are 3,525 seats up for election, 57% of the nationwide total.

De Blasio drops out of NY-10 as poll shows a plurality of voters still undecided

Former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio dropped out of New York’s 10th Congressional District primary on Wednesday, saying, “It’s clear the people of #NY10 are looking for another option and I respect that. Time for me to leave electoral politics and focus on other ways to serve.”

A recent independent Data for Progress poll of likely primary voters showed a plurality of voters—27%—undecided. New York City Council member Carlina Rivera had 17% in the poll, state Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou had 14%, and prosecutor Daniel Goldman had 12%. Next were former U.S. Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman (9%), state Assemblymember Jo Anne Simon (8%), and current 17th District U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones (7%).

The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. 

10th District incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler is running in New York’s 12th this year, where he’ll face Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the Democratic primary.

The primary is Aug. 23.

Former Rep. Nita Lowey backs Sean Patrick Maloney in NY-17

Over in New York’s redrawn 17th District, former U.S. Rep. Nita Lowey (D) endorsed Sean Patrick Maloney. Lowey retired in 2021 after serving in the House since 1989. Maloney chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Lowey served as the committee’s first female chair from 2001 to 2003.

Daily Kos wrote, “Almost three-quarters of the new 17th’s denizens live within the boundaries of the seat Lowey held until last year.” Incumbent Mondaire Jones chose to run in the redrawn 10th after Maloney announced he was running in the 17th. Maloney currently represents 25% of the new 17th. 

State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi is running in the primary. Her endorsers include Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and The Working Families Party (which had endorsed Maloney when he was running in a different district, as we wrote last month). Maloney has endorsements from several local officials and the New York AFL-CIO.

U.S. Senate candidates debate in Wisconsin, Sanders endorses Barnes

Five U.S. Senate candidates—Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, and political organizer Steven Olikara—participated in a televised debate hosted by TMJ4 News in Milwaukee on July 17.

The Associated Press’ Scott Bauer wrote, “Polls show [Barnes and Lasry] are leading the crowded field. Both Barnes and Lasry focused on Johnson, and not one another, in the debate as they advocated for getting rid of the Senate filibuster to pass a bill protecting abortion rights, passing gun safety laws, protecting the environment and tax changes to benefit the middle class.”

Bauer also wrote that Godlewski “took aim at her male opponents on abortion.” Godlewski said, “Where were you guys talking about reproductive rights at a UW forum when they asked you what your priorities were in the U.S. Senate? I was the only one talking about reproductive rights because for me this is not an afterthought.” During the debate, all candidates criticized the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Barnes, Godlewski, Lasry, and Nelson said they supported getting rid of the filibuster in the U.S. Senate to codify legalized abortion protections, and Nelson said the Supreme Court should be expanded.

On July 18, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Barnes, saying Barnes “knows the struggles of the working class” and is “the best positioned progressive candidate who will win both the primary and defeat Ron Johnson in November.” 

The same day, a press release from Nelson’s campaign highlighted an April endorsement from  Our Wisconsin Revolution, a state affiliate of the group Our Revolution, which Sanders founded in 2016. The statement quoted Nelson: “No one has done more to advance the cause of workers against the billionaire class than Bernie Sanders and push for Medicare for All, a Green New Deal and opposing dirty fossil fuel pipelines like Line 5. I’m proud to be the only Wisconsin campaign that’s been leading the way on these issues and will continue to.” 

Eight candidates are running in the Aug. 9 primary. 

Competitiveness data: Michigan and Ohio

On Aug. 2, Michigan holds statewide primaries and Ohio holds state legislative primaries. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Michigan

Ohio

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

July 14, 2022

In this issue: Ducey’s Arizona gubernatorial endorsement and the Nebraska GOP’s leadership upheaval

Ducey backs Taylor Robson for Arizona governor, countering Trump

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson in the gubernatorial primary. In his endorsement video, Ducey said, “Karrin is the real deal: pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-wall – and she’ll stand up to Joe Biden and the radical left.” Ducey is term-limited.

A recent OH Predictive Insights poll of likely voters shows Taylor Robson with 35% to Kari Lake’s 40%. Twenty-one percent of respondents were undecided. The margin of error was +/- 4.3 percentage points. 

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Lake. We wrote last week about the candidates’ differing views on the 2020 presidential election.

12 News wrote, “Ducey has more at stake in the governor’s race than simply clearing the way for a preferred successor. As chair of the Republican Governors’ Association, Ducey has worked across the country to elect governors who aren’t cut from the Trump mold.”  

The primary is Aug. 2.

Nebraska GOP removes chairman, elects new leadership

The Nebraska Republican Party voted to remove Dan Welch as chairman on July 9 after delegates passed an amendment to the state party constitution allowing delegates to remove leadership. Delegates elected Eric Underwood, who chaired the Lancaster County GOP, as the new state party chair. The Nebraska Examiner described the moves as “old-guard conservatives and Trump-era populists t[aking] over” the state party from term-limited Gov. Pete Ricketts (R). 

Several state party officials resigned, including the executive director, national committeewoman, secretary, and treasurer.

Welch attributed the vote to the perception that the state party supported Jim Pillen in this year’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Welch said the party stayed neutral. Pillen defeated eight candidates for the Republican nomination. Ricketts endorsed Pillen, while Trump backed Charles Herbster.

The Nebraska Examiner reported that some delegates also said they “wanted state party leaders to pay more attention to county parties in rural parts of the state” and “wanted the GOP to fully embrace former President Donald Trump’s unproven allegations about the 2020 presidential election.” Some delegates also alleged the party interfered in a 2020 state legislative primary.

Trump rules out endorsement for Hartzler in Missouri, but picks Mullin in special Oklahoma Senate primary

On July 8, Trump said he would not endorse U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler in her bid for the U.S. Senate GOP nomination in Missouri: 

She [Hartzler] called me this morning asking for my Endorsement, much as she has on many other occasions. I was anything but positive in that I don’t think she has what it takes to take on the Radical Left Democrats, together with their partner in the destruction of our Country, the Fake News Media and, of course, the deceptive & foolish RINOs.

Hartzler said, “The endorsement that counts is the endorsement of the Missouri people who know I am one of them and have been fighting for them.”

Twenty-one candidates are running in the Aug. 2 primary. The Missouri Independent said, “Polls throughout the campaign have shown [former Gov. Eric] Greitens, Hartzler and Attorney General Eric Schmitt tightly grouped at the top of the crowded Republican field” and that a Trump endorsement “is widely considered a potential silver bullet in the race that would automatically launch whoever received it to frontrunner status.”

The Kansas City Star wrote that “Trump has previously issued a statement of support — which he specified was not an endorsement — for U.S. Rep. Billy Long, but Long has … been running in fourth place in polling of the race.”

Incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is retiring.

Trump did endorse in Oklahoma’s special U.S. Senate election this past week, backing U.S. Rep. Markwayne Mullin over T.W. Shannon in the Aug. 23 primary runoff. Mullin received 44% to Shannon’s 18% in the primary. 

Incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) is resigning.

Nicholson exits Wisconsin gubernatorial primary

The Republican primary for Wisconsin governor is now a four-person contest. 

On July 5, Kevin Nicholson suspended his campaign. Nicholson’s name will still appear on the primary ballot. 

Nicholson, a Marine Corps veteran, had positioned himself as the political outsider in the race. Nicholson said, “It has become clear to me and my team the only path forward for our campaign is attacking the other candidates in the race on the airwaves and running a very negative campaign … [T]hat is not something I want to do.” Nicholson said he would not make an endorsement. 

On July 8, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) endorsed Tim Michels, an army veteran and construction company owner. Thompson served as governor from 1987 to 2001.  Trump endorsed Michels in June.

Also on July 8, former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch announced that 58 Republican state legislators endorsed her. On July 11, Kleefisch released a new ad featuring former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), who endorsed Kleefisch in February.

The primary is on Aug. 9. 

Competitiveness data: Kansas and Missouri

Kansas and Missouri hold primaries on Aug. 2. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Kansas

Missouri

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

July 14, 2022

In this issue: Oregon’s three-way gubernatorial race and super PAC spending in MD-04

Oregon’s three-way gubernatorial race

Oregon’s gubernatorial election features three former state legislators, with two running as major party candidates and one, a former Democrat, running as unaffiliated. Recent polls show a competitive three-way race.

The Republican State Leadership Committee commissioned a poll of likely voters showing Christine Drazan (R) with 32%, Tina Kotek (D) with 31%, and Betsy Johnson (unaffiliated) with 24%. The margin of error (MOE) was +/- 3.9 percentage points. 

An internal poll of likely voters from Johnson’s campaign showed Kotek with 33%, Johnson with 30%, and Drazan at 23%, with a +/- 4 percentage point MOE.

The only independent poll that FiveThirtyEight reports is from May, showing Drazan with 30%, Kotek with 28%, and Johnson with 19% among likely voters. The MOE was +/- 4.3 percentage points. 

Kotek was first elected to the state House in 2006 and served as speaker from 2013 until she resigned in January. Johnson, who served in the legislature as a Democrat, was first elected to the Senate in 2006 and resigned in December 2021. Drazan was elected to the state House in 2018 and served as minority leader from 2019 to 2021. Drazan resigned in January. 

Guns and homelessness are two issues in the race. Willamette Week wrote about the candidates’ responses to a question about gun policy:

When WW asked last week what policies the candidates would support to prevent mass shootings, they offered different proposals. Kotek said she’d advocate “common-sense gun safety, including banning ghost guns, preventing teenagers from purchasing assault weapons, and requiring completed background checks for all firearm purchases.” Drazan said she supported “dedicated funding to strengthen school safety measures and fully fund mental health services.”

Johnson’s answer was the surprise—she wanted “stronger background checks and raising the age to purchase certain firearms to 21.” 

According to Willamette Week, this was “the first time in her [Johnson’s] political career” that she said “she would support some gun control.”

In a campaign ad about homelessness, Johnson said, “Democrats are right. We need compassion, services, and housing. But Republicans are also right. We should expect personal responsibility and no more tent cities.” 

Kotek emphasizes creating housing and shelters. Kotek’s campaign website also calls for “[cleaning] up trash that accumulates at camps by partnering with local governments and people experiencing homelessness to provide sanitation services to these temporary camps.”

R. Leon Noble (L) is also running in the general election. Three race forecasters view the Nov. 8 election as either Lean or Likely Democratic.

Endorsement updates: Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton weigh in on House primaries

We wrote last week that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Andy Levin over Haley Stevens in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary. On July 7, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton endorsed Stevens. 

In Michigan’s 2016 Democratic presidential primary, Sanders defeated Clinton 49.8% to 48.3%.

We also wrote last week about endorsements in Vermont’s U.S. House primary. On July 6, Sanders endorsed Becca Balint. 

Super PACs focused on Israel spend for Edwards, Ivey in MD-04

Two super PACs focused on Israel policy are spending for different candidates in Maryland’s 4th Congressional District primary. 

The United Democracy Project, affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has spent $3 million supporting former Prince George’s County state attorney Glenn Ivey and opposing former U.S. Rep. Donna Edwards. J Street Action Fund will spend $600,000 supporting Edwards and opposing Ivey.

A United Democracy Project ad said, “Donna Edwards had a poor reputation for constituent services.” It cited an Inside Gov rating: “Edwards was rated one of the least effective members of Congress. Dead last among all Democrats.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) responded to the ad in a video last month, saying Edwards “was one of the most effective members in Congress” and that she “fought … for jobs and investments in her community, to help constituents in need, and to deliver results.” The video became an Edwards campaign ad.

Edwards represented the 4th Congressional District from 2008 to 2017.

A J Street ad criticizes Ivey’s AIPAC support, saying, “he’s taking cash from a group supporting 109 Republicans who tried to overturn Biden’s election.”

AIPAC said earlier this year, “We have friends who are pro-choice and pro-life, those who are liberal on immigration and those who want to tighten our borders, and yes, those who disagree strongly on issues surrounding the 2020 presidential election. … This is no moment for the pro-Israel movement to become selective about its friends.”

According to Open Secrets data, United Democracy Project has spent $15.8 million this cycle, all of which went toward supporting or opposing Democratic candidates. Open Secrets has recorded $349,000 in spending from J Street Action Fund so far.

United Democracy Project says it is “comprised of American citizens—Democrats, Republicans and Independents—united in the belief that America’s partnership with our democratic ally Israel benefits both countries.”

J Street says it “organizes pro-Israel, pro-peace Americans to promote US policies that embody our deeply held Jewish and democratic values and that help secure the State of Israel as a democratic homeland for the Jewish people.”

The primary is July 19.

Iwamoto challenging Hawaii House Speaker Saiki in rematch

Kim Coco Iwamoto is challenging state House Speaker Scott Saiki in the Hawaii House of Representatives District 25 primary. This is a rematch from last cycle—in the 2020 Democratic primary for District 26, Saiki defeated Iwamoto 51% to 49%.

Saiki was first elected to the state House in 1994. Iwamoto was a member of the state Board of Education from 2006 to 2011.

Development has been a major issue in the race. Hawaii News Now wrote that the district, which includes downtown Honolulu, “has grown from a semi-industrial area to a growing high rise residential area.”

Saiki said, “Some of my greatest accomplishments were actually projects that were initiated by residents in our community. … Going … as far back as seven years ago when we took on a private company that had claimed ownership of roads in our community.”

Iwamoto said Saiki hadn’t done enough for the community in his 28 years in office. Iwamoto proposes a surcharge on vacant homes and “[using] that revenue to actually subsidize emergency housing vouchers so that we can house our unsheltered neighbors and also use that resource to … build more affordable housing.”

The primary is Aug. 13.

Dane County Democratic Party Chair Sabor challenges incumbent La Follette for Wisconsin secretary of state

Dane County Democratic Party Chair Alexia Sabor is challenging incumbent Doug La Follette in the Wisconsin secretary of state primary on Aug. 9. 

La Follette was first elected in 1974 and served one term before unsuccessfully running for lieutenant governor in 1978. He was re-elected secretary of state in 1982 and has held the office since. Sabor has chaired the Dane County Democratic Party since 2019. 

According to the Associated Press’ Todd Richmond, “The stakes are high for the sleepy office because Republicans want to shift election oversight from the state elections commission to the secretary of state, following the model of more than 30 other states. Democrats fear that could allow Republicans to improperly influence certification of Wisconsin elections, particularly the 2024 presidential contest.”

La Follette said, “People know who [I am]. The issues are simple. Who has the best chance of winning in November? I am that candidate.” According to Richmond, La Follette also “not[ed] he was the only Democrat to retain a statewide office in 2010 and 2014.” La Follette’s campaign website says he “has fought against the corrupting influence of big money on politics.”

Sabor said, “We are really missing an opportunity with the seat to push back on things the Republican Legislature was doing that I think harm Wisconsin voters. … The current secretary of state isn’t really doing any communication around the issues that affect Wisconsin voters.” Sabor says she would “help Wisconsinites better understand their rights and duties as citizens and how they can become more engaged in civic life.”

During the June 25–26 Democratic Party convention, WisPolitics.com conducted a straw poll on various races. Of the 373 delegates who cast ballots, 68% voted for Sabor, and 32% voted for La Follette. 

Competitiveness data: Kansas and Missouri

Kansas and Missouri hold primaries on Aug. 2. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Kansas

Missouri

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition

July 7, 2022

In this issue: Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska; Schulz, Cox respond to Democratic Governors Association ad in Maryland

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska

Former President Donald Trump will hold a rally in Anchorage, Alaska, on Saturday for GOP candidates in three battleground elections: Gov. Mike Dunleavy, At-Large House candidate Sarah Palin, and U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka. 

Top-four primaries will be held Aug. 16, the same day as a ranked-choice voting special general election for U.S. House. Candidates of all affiliations will appear on the same ballot in each race.

Dunleavy faces four Republicans, one Democrat, two independents, and two third-party candidates. That includes former Gov. Bill Walker (I), who withdrew from the 2018 gubernatorial race that Dunleavy ultimately won; former state Rep. Les Gara (D); Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce (R); and state Rep. Christopher Kurka (R).

Nineteen candidates are running for U.S. Senate, including incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R). Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the state Department of Administration, is one of seven Republicans challenging Murkowski. Three Democrats, three third-party candidates, and five independent or nonpartisan candidates are also running. Murkowski is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year who voted guilty during Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Of the seven Republican senators who voted guilty, three have seats up for election this year. North Carolina’s Richard Burr and Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey aren’t seeking re-election. 

Palin, a former governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate, is running in both the special general election and the regular top-four primary for U.S. House on Aug. 16. Palin advanced from the 48-candidate special primary field with 27% of the vote. She joins investor Nick Begich III (R) and former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the special general election. Al Gross (I) also advanced from the June 11 primary but withdrew from the race on June 20. Former incumbent Don Young (R) died in March. Twenty-two candidates are running in the top-four regular primary, including Begich, Palin, and Peltola.

The Alaska Republican Party has endorsed both Dunleavy and Pierce in the gubernatorial election, Tshibaka in the Senate election, and Begich in the House election.

Alaska voters approved the new top-four primary/ranked-choice voting general election system in 2020. Click here for more information.

Cheney, Hageman diverge on 2020 election, Jan. 6 committee at first U.S. House debate

The first debate of Wyoming’s GOP congressional primary featured division over the 2020 presidential election results and the January 6 investigative committee. Incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney is vice chair of the committee.

Cheney said the Republican Party is “embracing a cult of personality and I won’t be part of that.” Cheney said Trump lied about the 2020 election results and that candidate Harriet Hageman, whom Trump endorsed, is also lying about the election because she is beholden to Trump.

Hageman criticized Cheney’s role on the House investigative committee and said, “We have serious questions about the 2020 election.” Hageman said there are “two different systems of justice in this country,” saying people like Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and rioters in Portland, Oregon, aren’t held accountable but that conservatives are punished for exercising free speech. During the debate, Hageman also referenced money Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg donated to nonprofits that provided funding to election offices in 2020.

The January 6 committee held six hearings last month. Cheney is one of two Republicans on the nine-member committee, along with Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), who is not seeking re-election. Cheney and Kinzinger were among the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for incitement of insurrection in 2021.

Wyoming’s primary is on Aug. 16.

Schulz criticizes Democratic Governors Association ad in Maryland

Maryland gubernatorial candidate Kelly Schulz criticized a Democratic Governors Association (DGA) ad, saying the group intended it to help Dan Cox, her Republican primary opponent.

The DGA ad said, “Cox worked with Trump trying to prove the last election was a fraud. 100% pro life. He’s fighting to end abortion in Maryland, and Cox will protect the Second Amendment at all costs, refusing to support any federal restrictions on guns. Even pushing to put armed guards in every school.”

Schulz said, “Two weeks ago, our campaign predicted that national Democrats would spend millions of dollars to prop up fringe candidate Dan Cox so they would not … have to face me in the general election. … They’re afraid of losing four out of the last six governor’s races here in Maryland. And because of this, they’re willing to support a lying conspiracy theorist like Dan Cox[.]”

Cox said, “I am being attacked now by both moderate ‘do-nothing’ Kelly Shulz’s failing campaign and by the Democratic Governors Association who views me as the frontrunner they intend to tear down in the eyes of Maryland’s voters.”

DGA spokesman Sam Newton said, “As Maryland’s MAGA primary for governor is heating up and recent polls show Kelly Schulz is failing to gain any momentum against Trump-endorsed Dan Cox, it’s telling that her campaign is already looking for excuses.” 

Politico wrote, “The committee reserved at least $1.2 million worth of airtime, according to data from the ad tracking firm AdImpact — more than what Cox and Schulz have spent on advertising combined.”

Cox was elected to the Maryland House of Delegates in 2018. Former President Trump endorsed him. Schulz was Maryland’s secretary of commerce from 2019 to January 2022. Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who is term-limited, endorsed her.

The primary is July 19. Race forecasters view the general election as Lean or Likely Democratic. This is one of six governorships Republicans are defending in states President Biden won in 2020. Biden defeated Trump by a margin of 33 percentage points in the state.

Salmon exits Arizona governor’s race, candidates participate in debate

Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon withdrew from the gubernatorial primary in Arizona. Salmon said that “the path to a first-place victory is no longer a realistic possibility. Republican primary voters deserve more than having their votes split[.]” 

Salmon endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson the next day. Salmon’s name will still appear on the ballot due to the timing of his withdrawal.

Salmon was trailing Kari Lake, a former news anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, and Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents and founder of a land-use strategy firm, in recent polls.

Club for Growth and FreedomWorks had endorsed Salmon, along with U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.). As of July 5, none of those organizations or individuals had endorsed another candidate in the race.  

On June 29, Lake, Taylor Robson, Scott Neely, and Paola Tulliani Zen participated in a televised debate hosted by the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission.  

Arizona Republic’s Stacey Barchenger said the debate was an “hourlong throw down between the contenders.” 

Lake said she would not have certified the 2020 presidential election results: “We had a corrupt election. I’d actually like to ask everybody on this stage if they would agree we had a corrupt stolen election? Raise your hand.” 

Neely and Tulliani Zen raised their hands, while Taylor Robson didn’t. Taylor Robson said the election wasn’t fair because new policies were implemented shortly before the election and tech companies suppressed conservative voices. Robson also referenced donations from Zuckerberg to nonprofits that provided funding to election offices in 2020. Taylor Robson said, “But I am focused on 2022 because the left is 10 steps ahead of us.”

Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited. Three race forecasters view the general election as a Toss-up. This is another one of the six governorships Republicans are defending in states Biden won in 2020. Biden defeated Trump by a margin of 0.3 percentage points.

The primary is Aug. 2. 

Colorado Sun analysis shows most unaffiliated voters participated in GOP primaries while fewest voted in Democratic primaries since 2018

According to The Colorado Sun‘s analysis of preliminary data from the June 28 primaries, 231,000 unaffiliated voters cast ballots in the Republican Party primary, up from 138,000 in 2020 and 105,000 in 2018. The 162,000 unaffiliated voters in the Democratic primaries were the fewest in the past two cycles—there were 383,000 in 2020 and 177,000 in 2018.

Colorado voters approved an initiated state statute in 2016 allowing unaffiliated voters to participate in major party primaries. The law first applied to the 2018 primaries.

As of the morning of July 1, 35% of GOP ballots and 30% of Democratic ballots came from unaffiliated voters. The Colorado Sun provides a table comparing the raw number of primary votes by affiliation since 2018. Here’s a look at what percentage of the total primary vote unaffiliated voters cast in each major party’s primary based on that data:

Republican primary votes

• 2022: 35% by unaffiliated
• 2020: 24% by unaffiliated
• 2018: 20% by unaffiliated

Democratic primary votes

• 2022: 30% by unaffiliated
• 2020: 38% by unaffiliated
• 2018: 27% by unaffiliated

The Sun noted that the four counties with the highest percentage of GOP primary votes from unaffiliated voters, ranging from 59% to 70%, are all in the 3rd Congressional District: San Miguel, Ouray, Pitkin, and Gunnison counties. Incumbent Rep. Lauren Boebert defeated Don Coram in the 3rd District primary 66% to 34%. 

None of the Democratic statewide primaries (for U.S. Senate and state executive offices) had more than one candidate this year. The Republican side had several battleground contests, including for governor and Senate.

Percentage of each congressional caucus not seeking re-election

Fifty-five members of Congress are not running for re-election in 2022, including 32 Democrats and 23 Republicans. For Democrats, this is 11.9% of the party’s House and Senate caucus, up from 3.6% in 2020. For Republicans, this is 8.8% of their caucus, down from 11.5% in 2020.

Competitiveness data: Maryland

Maryland holds primaries on July 19. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

July 7, 2022

In this issue: Sanders backs Levin over Stevens in MI-11 and a look at endorsements in VT’s U.S. House race

Sanders endorses Levin over Stevens, criticizes PAC spending in Michigan

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Rep. Andy Levin in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District, where Levin faces Rep. Haley Stevens in the primary due to redistricting. Sanders said Levin is “the only Democrat in the race who understands that we must be a party of the working class. He’s taking on right wing-funded super PACs[.]”

This is one of four incumbent-vs.-incumbent Democratic primaries this year and the only one Sanders has endorsed in.

The super PAC Sanders referred to is the United Democracy Project, which is affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Sanders said, “these extremists are pouring millions of dollars into a congressional race to try to ensure the Democratic Party advances the agenda of powerful corporations and the billionaire class.” 

We wrote about some of the PAC’s donors last month. The PAC is running an ad supporting Stevens and has spent more than $900,000 in the 11th District.

The Detroit Regional Chamber’s PAC recently endorsed Stevens, along with Rep. Peter Meijer (R) in the 3rd District. The PAC said, “With two qualified candidates and friends of the Chamber in the race for the 11th district, this decision came down to who is more pro-growth and job creation-friendly.” 

EMILY’s List’s super PAC Women Vote! spent more than $800,000 on a TV ad buy in the district supporting Stevens.

Sanders also recently endorsed Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who’s running in the 12th District primary. The super PAC Urban Empowerment Action is spending in that district supporting Janice Winfrey and says its supporters “include a broad coalition of African American business, political and civic leaders, working alongside peers in the Jewish community.” Sanders criticized the PAC’s involvement in the race. See our story from last month for more on this primary.

Michigan’s primaries are on Aug. 2. 

Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorses Balint for U.S. House in Vermont

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorsed Becca Balint in Vermont’s U.S. House primary. 

Balint is state Senate president pro tempore. She faces Lt. Gov. Molly Gray, physician Louis Meyers, and Sianay Chase Clifford, a former staffer for Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.). Former candidate and state Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale withdrew in May and endorsed Balint.

VTDigger wrote, “Like Balint and Ram Hinsdale, Gray has signed on to some of the national progressive movement’s signature platforms, including Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. But she is nevertheless increasingly viewed as the establishment pick.” 

WCAX said endorsements will be important as voters seek to distinguish the candidates:

Balint is seen as further left on the scale, earning the seal of approval from congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal and several labor unions.

But she has also won endorsements from more moderate voices, too– Treasurer Beth Pearce, former Democratic Party chair Dotty Deans and the Vermont State Firefighters’ Association.

Typically, party figureheads such as Sen. Patrick Leahy and Congressman Peter Welch stay out of the primaries to not tip the scales. But many of their close political allies have come out in support of Molly Gray, along with former Govs. Howard Dean and Madeleine Kunin. That’s in addition to the Vermont State Employees’ Association, in an effort to cast herself as the more pragmatic pick.

Former congressional staffer Sianay Chase Clifford has been endorsed by Vermont’s Progressive Party.

Balint also sought the Vermont Progressive Party’s endorsement. 

Welch, the current at-large House district representative, is running for U.S. Senate. Leahy is retiring.

The primary is Aug. 9.

Colorado Sun analysis shows most unaffiliated voters participated in GOP primaries while fewest voted in Democratic primaries since 2018

According to The Colorado Sun‘s analysis of preliminary data from the June 28 primaries, 231,000 unaffiliated voters cast ballots in the Republican Party primary, up from 138,000 in 2020 and 105,000 in 2018. The 162,000 unaffiliated voters in the Democratic primaries were the fewest in the past two cycles—there were 383,000 in 2020 and 177,000 in 2018.

Colorado voters approved an initiated state statute in 2016 allowing unaffiliated voters to participate in major party primaries. The law first applied to the 2018 primaries.

As of the morning of July 1, 35% of GOP ballots and 30% of Democratic ballots came from unaffiliated voters. The Colorado Sun provides a table comparing the raw number of primary votes by affiliation since 2018. Here’s a look at what percentage of the total primary vote unaffiliated voters cast in each major party’s primary based on that data:

Republican primary votes

• 2022: 35% by unaffiliated
• 2020: 24% by unaffiliated
• 2018: 20% by unaffiliated

Democratic primary votes

• 2022: 30% by unaffiliated
• 2020: 38% by unaffiliated
• 2018: 27% by unaffiliated

The Sun noted that the four counties with the highest percentage of GOP primary votes from unaffiliated voters, ranging from 59% to 70%, are all in the 3rd Congressional District: San Miguel, Ouray, Pitkin, and Gunnison counties. Incumbent Rep. Lauren Boebert defeated Don Coram in the 3rd District primary 66% to 34%. 

None of the Democratic statewide primaries (for U.S. Senate and state executive offices) had more than one candidate this year. The Republican side had several battleground contests, including for governor and Senate.

Ohio Supreme Court allows four legislative candidates to qualify for primary ballot

In a 4-3 decision, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled that two candidates for Ohio House and two candidates for Ohio Senate can appear on the primary ballot. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) previously ruled that the candidates, who did not meet the initial February filing deadlines for a then-May 3 primary, would be unable to run.

The four candidates are Democrats William DeMora (Senate District 25), Elizabeth Thien (Senate District 25), Leronda Jackson (House District 39), and Anita Somani (House District 11).

The state supreme court consists of four Republican and three Democratic judges. The three Democratic judges and one Republican judge voted to allow the candidates on the ballot.

According to state law, candidates must file 90 days before an election or 72 days before if they’re running as write-ins. Because a federal court ruling moved the state’s primary to Aug. 2, the candidates argued that they qualified by submitting paperwork enough in advance of the August primary date. LaRose previously ruled that any candidates for the Aug. 2 primary still needed to meet the previous February deadline.

Percentage of each congressional caucus not seeking re-election

Fifty-five members of Congress are not running for re-election in 2022, including 32 Democrats and 23 Republicans. For Democrats, this is 11.9% of the party’s House and Senate caucus, up from 3.6% in 2020. For Republicans, this is 8.8% of their caucus, down from 11.5% in 2020.

Competitiveness data: Maryland

Maryland holds primaries on July 19. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.