TagHeart of the Primaries

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition

June 30, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries and Liz Cheney tells voters how they can change party affiliation ahead of WY primary

Primary results roundup

Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Utah held statewide primaries on Tuesday. New York held primaries for statewide offices and state House districts, and Mississippi and South Carolina held primary runoffs. The results below were current as of Wednesday morning.

Big stories of the night

Illinois’ 15th District: Rep. Mary Miller defeated Rep. Rodney Davis 58% to 42%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

Davis has represented Illinois’ 13th Congressional District since 2013, and Miller has represented the 15th since 2021. According to data from Daily Kos, 28% of the new 15th District’s population comes from the old 13th District (which Davis represents), and 31% comes from the old 15th District (which Miller represents).

Davis is one of eight House members who sought re-election and lost this year. Another, Marie Newman (D), lost in Illinois’ 6th on Tuesday in another incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary. Four primaries featuring multiple incumbents have taken place so far, and two are upcoming.

Illinois Governor: Darren Bailey defeated five other candidates with 57% of the vote. Jesse Sullivan was second with 16%. Richard Irvin finished third with 15%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Likely or Solid Democratic. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) is running for re-election.

Bailey is a farmer and was elected to the Illinois Senate in 2020. Sullivan is a venture capitalist who has not previously held political office. Irvin is an attorney and mayor of Aurora, the state’s second-largest city. Bailey received $9 million in contributions from businessman Richard Uihlein. Hedge fund manager Ken Griffin donated $50 million to Irvin.

Colorado U.S. Senate: Joe O’Dea defeated Ron Hanks 55.5% to 45.5%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Likely or Solid Democratic. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is running for re-election.

Key issues in the race included abortion and the 2020 election. O’Dea said he did not support overturning Roe v. Wade or total abortion bans, while Hanks supported a total abortion ban. O’Dea said he did not believe the 2020 election was stolen and that Republicans should focus on issues, while Hanks said he believed former President Donald Trump (R) won the 2020 election.

See below to read about Democratic involvement in this and the Illinois gubernatorial race.

Mississippi’s 4th District primary runoff: Mike Ezell defeated incumbent Steven Palazzo 54%-46%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

All five candidates who lost in the June 7 primary endorsed Ezell, who was elected Jackson County sheriff in 2014. Palazzo was first elected to the U.S. House in 2010. 

Palazzo is under a House Ethics Committee investigation over allegations that he converted campaign funds to pay personal expenses. Palazzo has denied wrongdoing. 

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special primary: Markwayne Mullin and T.W. Shannon advanced to an Aug. 23 runoff. Mullin received 44% of the vote and Shannon received 18%. Ten candidates ran in the primary. The special election will fill the remainder of retiring incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R) term.

U.S. House

Colorado’s 8th District: Barbara Kirkmeyer defeated three other candidates with 41% of the vote. Jan Kulmann finished second with 23%. Colorado gained an eighth congressional district after the 2020 census. Three forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up.

Mississippi’s 3rd District primary runoff: Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Michael Cassidy 66% to 34%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

State executives

Colorado Secretary of State: Pam Anderson won with 44% of the vote. Mike O’Donnell finished second with 29% and Tina Peters third with 27%. Anderson views the 2020 presidential election results as legitimate, while Peters and O’Donnell deny their legitimacy. Peters was indicted on charges stemming from an election tampering investigation, where she has denied wrongdoing. Republicans won each election for this office from 1962 to 2018, when Sec. of State Jean Griswold (D) defeated Wayne Williams (R).

Oklahoma Attorney General: Gentner Drummond defeated incumbent John O’Connor 51% to 49%. No Democratic candidates filed to run. Drummond faces Lynda Steele (L) in the general election.

Media analysis

The Associated Press discussed O’Dea’s Senate primary win in context of the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization:

The abortion debate consumed the nation this week, but there was no race where it mattered more than Colorado’s Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, where businessman Joe O’Dea became one of the only abortion-rights-supporting Republican in the nation to win a statewide primary this year.

O’Dea beat back a stiff challenge from state Rep. Ron Hanks, a Trump loyalist who opposed abortion with no exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother.

O’Dea will face Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in November, and if he wins, he would become just the third Senate Republican — and the only male — to support abortion rights.

He said he backs a ban on late-term abortions and government funding of abortions but that the decision to terminate a pregnancy in the initial months is “between a person and their God.”

Democrats had spent at least $2.5 million on ads designed to boost O’Dea’s opponent by promoting, among other things, that he was “too conservative” for backing a complete abortion ban.

The Hill wrote about results in Illinois’ and Colorado’s primaries where Democrats sought to influence outcomes:

Ahead of Tuesday’s primaries, Democrats made clear what kind of Republicans they hoped to run against in November, pouring money into ads boosting far-right candidates with shaky general election prospects. 

That strategy ultimately paid off in the GOP primary for Illinois governor, where Trump’s endorsed candidate, state Sen. Darren Bailey, notched a win over a more moderate Republican, former Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin. 

Still, it wasn’t an across-the-board success for Democrats.

In Colorado, Republican Heidi Ganahl beat out Greg Lopez in the GOP gubernatorial primary despite Democratic-aligned groups spending big to tout Lopez’s conservative credentials. 

The same is true in the Colorado GOP Senate primary, where Democrats were hoping to boost conservative state Rep. Ron Hanks over businessman Joe O’Dea, a more moderate Republican. O’Dea ultimately clinched the nomination to take on Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

Democrats still have the incumbent advantage in both the Colorado Senate and gubernatorial race. But the failed efforts to lift up hard-line conservatives in the primaries show the limits of money in politics.

The Washington Examiner wrote that Trump-endorsed candidates’ victories in Illinois worsens Republicans’ general election prospects in the state:

Illinois Republicans are under the thumb of insular, combative populists after state Sen. Darren Bailey and Rep. Mary Miller won primaries for governor and Congress, respectively, over appealing conservative pragmatists who would have improved their party’s midterm election prospects in this deep blue state.

Bailey was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Miller, who captured the nomination in Illinois’s newly configured 15th Congressional District, was endorsed by the former president and the Club for Growth, an influential conservative advocacy group based in Washington. So neither qualifies as anti-establishment outsiders.

But Bailey’s victory over Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, who is black, in the race for the gubernatorial nod and Miller’s defeat of incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis in a House primary forced by redistricting marked the coronation of the Trump-aligned, “MAGA” wing of the party atop the Illinois GOP.

The Chicago Sun-Times‘ Mark Brown said some factors could benefit Bailey:

Now to win a second term, Pritzker must defeat Bailey, a downstate farmer who gained notoriety as a first term state senator by challenging the governor’s COVID-19 restrictions.

Conventional wisdom says Pritzker will do so, marking him as a heavy favorite for November in a Democrat-dominated state that for decades has been hospitable to only moderate Republicans in statewide races.

Bailey is a conservative’s conservative who looks like a candidate from the 1950s with the political beliefs to match and boasts the support of former President Donald Trump, who lost this state by 17 percentage points twice — 944,714 votes in 2016 and 1,025,024 in 2020. Bailey’s path to victory is not readily apparent.

But that’s why elections probably should come with the same disclaimer as the stock market: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Working in Bailey’s favor is the expectation this will be a big Republican year nationally with the usual mid-term presidential backlash compounded by high inflation and gas prices and a worrisome war in Ukraine.

Throw in the fact Democratic voters often don’t turn out in off-year elections and you start to see why Illinois Democrats better not take anything for granted against Bailey.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least six state legislators—one Democrat and five Republicans—lost in primaries on June 28. Including those results, 121 state legislative incumbents have lost in primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 50 primaries featuring incumbents remain uncalled and 20 in New York will not be held until August.

Across the 26 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 4.6% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 26 states that have held primaries so far, eight had Democratic trifectas, 15 had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 26 states, there are 3,337 seats up for election, 54% of the nationwide total.

Cheney campaign tells voters how they can change their party affiliation ahead of primary

According to The New York Times, U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney sent mailers to Democrats telling voters how they can change their party affiliation ahead of Wyoming’s primaries. Cheney also includes that information on her campaign website. Voters must be registered Republicans to vote in the state’s GOP primary, and they may change their affiliation on primary day or ahead of time.

Cheney is one of two Republicans on the nine-member select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach and has been a vocal critic of Trump, who endorsed challenger Harriet Hageman in the At-Large Congressional District primary. 

Hageman’s campaign manager, Carly Miller, said, “Liz Cheney promised she wouldn’t encourage Democrats to raid the Republican primary, but then again, she also swore to faithfully represent Wyoming and she broke that promise too.”

Cheney said in February she would not organize an effort to ask Democrats to change their affiliation.

Cheney said last week, “I encourage everyone with principles who loves our country to exercise their right to vote. And, damn right, I will continue to give every voter in Wyoming a list of all the key rules for casting ballots in our state.”

According to The New York Times‘ Reid J. Epstein, “It is fairly typical for moderate Wyoming Republicans to recruit Democrats to switch parties ahead of primaries — it was key to Gov. Mark Gordon’s victory over a primary field that included Ms. Hageman in 2018.”

University of Wyoming political science professor Jim King wrote that independents, not Democrats, would play a key role in the GOP primary: “In [a] UW 2020 election survey, majorities of Wyoming independents rated Trump’s presidential performance negatively, did not vote for Trump in the presidential election and were confident that the votes in the presidential election were counted accurately. These people are much more likely to support Cheney than Hageman in the Republican primary.”

Wyoming’s primaries are Aug. 16.

Former Ohio U.S. Senate candidate starts new PAC

State Sen. Matt Dolan, who placed third in the Ohio U.S. Senate primary in May, has launched Ohio Matters PAC. Dolan’s immediate goal is helping Republicans win majorities in Congress.

Dolan said, “If we’re going to continue to just focus on the past, we’re going to fail as Republicans.” 

Politico‘s Natalie Allison wrote, “Dolan was the only candidate on a debate stage of five in March to raise his hand when the moderator asked if, for the betterment of the Republican Party, it was time for Trump to stop talking about the last presidential election.”

J.D. Vance won the Senate primary and had Trump’s endorsement.

Alabama GOP declares a tie in SD-27, coin toss to decide primary 

On June 25, the Alabama Republican Party declared the District 27 state Senate GOP primary a tie and announced the race will be decided by lot—a game of chance. 

Incumbent Tom Whatley’s campaign had contested the primary results, which showed him trailing Auburn City Council member Jay Hovey by one vote. The Alabama Republican Party Candidate Committee heard testimony and declared that a provisional ballot that had been rejected should count as a vote for Whatley, creating the tie. 

The Alabama Law Enforcement Agency (ALEA) said that Patsy Kenney, the voter who cast the provisional ballot in question, hadn’t completed the paperwork needed to get an Alabama driver’s license and complete her voter registration. 

Hovey said, “Certainly every vote is important and it’s unfortunate if anyone is mistaken that they are registered to vote. … But if the proper, legal process isn’t followed to register, a person shouldn’t be allowed to cast a ballot to be considered.” On June 29, Hovey formally requested that the party reconsider their original decision to count Kenney’s vote.

Whatley said that [Kenney’s] ballot “was the most scrutinized ballot in Alabama this year.” He added, “The decision to count [the ballot] was correct. … Win or lose the coin toss, helping a constituent like Mrs. Kenney have her ballot counted was the correct thing to do and I am glad to have served her as her state senator.”

The state party said, “The Alabama Republican Party has the authority to pick its nominee in the event of a tied primary. … In this case, the ALGOP Candidate Committee voted in favor of having Chairman John Wahl resolve this tie by lot, the method used for such situations in a general election, as outlined in Alabama Code 17-12-23.”

Brian Lyman wrote in the Montgomery Advertiser that Hovey’s “understanding was that scheduling conflicts meant it [the coin toss] could not take place until after the Fourth of July holiday weekend.”

The winner will face Sherri Reese (D) in the general election on November 8. We’ll update you on the result in a future edition.

Competitiveness data: Arizona

Arizona holds primaries on Aug. 2. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

June 30, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries and Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate candidates talk abortion policy

Primary results roundup

Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Utah held statewide primaries on Tuesday. New York held primaries for statewide offices and state House districts, and Mississippi and South Carolina held primary runoffs. The results below were current as of Wednesday morning.

Big story of the night: Casten defeats Newman in IL-06

Illinois’ 6th District: Rep. Sean Casten defeated Rep. Marie Newman and Charles Hughes. Casten received 68% to Newman’s 29%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Lean or Likely Democratic.

Newman represents Illinois’ current 3rd Congressional District and Casten represents the 6th. According to political researcher Frank Calabrese, 41% of constituents in the redrawn 6th come from Newman’s district and 23% come from Casten’s.

Casten was first elected in 2018 when he defeated six-term incumbent Rep. Peter Roskam (R). Newman was first elected in 2020 after defeating Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) in the primary. 

Newman is one of eight House members who sought re-election and lost so far this year. Another, Rodney Davis (R), lost in Illinois’ 3rd on Tuesday in another incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary.  Four primaries featuring multiple incumbents have taken place so far, and two are upcoming.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

Illinois’ 3rd District: Delia Ramirez defeated three other candidates with 66% of the vote. Gilbert Villegas was second with 24%. Rep. Marie Newman (D), the old 3rd District’s representative, ran for re-election in the 6th District.

Illinois’ 7th District: Incumbent Danny K. Davis defeated two other candidates with 52% of the vote. Kina Collins was second with 45%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Democratic.

Illinois’ 8th District: Incumbent Raja Krishnamoorthi defeated Junaid Ahmed 71% to 29%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Democratic.

Illinois’ 17th District: Eric Sorensen defeated five other candidates with 38% of the vote. Litesa Wallace was second with 23%. Rep. Cheri Bustos (D) did not run for re-election. Three forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up or Tilt Democratic.

State executives

New York Governor: Incumbent Kathy Hochul won. Hochul had 66% of the vote. New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams was second with 19% and U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi was third with 13%. Hochul, formerly lieutenant governor, succeeded Andrew Cuomo (D) after he resigned last year.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least six state legislators—one Democrat and five Republicans—lost in primaries on June 28. Including those results, 121 state legislative incumbents have lost in primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 50 primaries featuring incumbents remain uncalled and 20 in New York will not be held until August.

Across the 26 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 4.6% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 26 states that have held primaries so far, eight had Democratic trifectas, 15 had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 26 states, there are 3,337 seats up for election, 54% of the nationwide total.

Media analysis

Roll Call wrote about fundraising, satellite spending, endorsements, and more in Illinois’ 6th District primary:

Casten, who flipped a GOP seat in the 2018 blue wave, outraised Newman, hauling in $3.2 million this cycle to her $1.5 million.

…

Most of the outside money in the race went to oppose Newman, federal election reports showed. The biggest outside spender in the 6th District was the pro-Israel DMFI PAC, which invested more than $500,000, nearly all going to opposition to Newman. Although Casten and Newman have had similar voting records during the 117th Congress, Newman voted against funding for an Israeli defense system known as Iron Dome. 

In the final weeks of the campaign, Casten’s family suffered the death of the congressman’s daughter, and he limited his public appearances. 

Though Newman had fresh experience winning a Democratic primary, the circumstances this cycle were different from 2020, when she alone had the support of abortion rights groups in the effort to unseat Lipinski in the 3rd District. This year, Casten and Newman both were endorsed by such groups as Planned Parenthood.  

…

Newman faced ethics questions after winning her seat but said those matters were a nonissue on the trail.

Wisconsin U.S. Senate candidates support ending filibuster, codifying abortion rights

Four leading candidates in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate primary called for ending the Senate filibuster to facilitate codifying abortion rights on the federal level. 

The candidates—Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Alex Lasry, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson—spoke at the state Democratic Party convention following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Politico‘s Zach Montellaro wrote that in this primary, “even minute differences among the Democratic candidates — and how fiercely they elevate them — could define the rest of the contest.” 

The filibuster is a tool senators can use to extend debate on a bill or other matter, thereby delaying or blocking action on it. It takes 60 votes to end debate and move forward. Ending the filibuster would mean that a majority party could pass legislation without support from minority party members. The Senate is currently split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris (D) serving as tie-breaker. Click here for arguments for and against the filibuster. 

Nelson also supports expanding the Supreme Court and imposing term limits on justices. Godlewski and Lasry said in May they oppose expanding the court and would consider term limits. Barnes’ campaign said he “recognizes the need for reforms in the court but is prioritizing codifying Roe v. Wade.”

Incumbent Ron Johnson (R) is seeking re-election. 

The primary is Aug. 9.

Working Families Party, firearm regulation advocate endorse in NY-10

The New York Working Families Party (NYWFP) endorsed state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou in New York’s 10th Congressional District primary. Several other candidates in this primary have gotten WFP backing in the past.

In 2020, NYWFP endorsed Niou in her state Assembly race. NYWFP endorsed several other current 10th District candidates in their previous bids for other offices, including U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones (who ran in the 17th District in 2020), state Assemblywoman Jo Anne Simon, state Sen. Brad Hoylman, New York City Council member Carlina Rivera, and former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio.

In other endorsement news, Jackie Rowe-Adams, the founder of gun violence prevention nonprofit Harlem Mothers S.A.V.E., endorsed prosecutor Daniel Goldman. Goldman was House Democrats’ counsel during former President Donald Trump’s (R)  first impeachment. 

10th District incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler is running in New York’s 12th this year, where he’ll face Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the Democratic primary.

New York’s congressional primaries are Aug. 23.

Chang-Díaz withdraws from Massachusetts gubernatorial primary

State Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz withdrew from the Massachusetts gubernatorial primary, leaving only Attorney General Maura Healey actively running for the Democratic nomination. Chang-Díaz’s name will still appear on the Sept. 6 ballot due to the timing of her withdrawal.

Politico‘s Lisa Kashinsky wrote that Chang-Díaz “said she would instead be turning her efforts toward supporting a slate of ‘Courage Democrats’ — a group of state legislative and county district attorney hopefuls locked in contested races — who align with her progressive policy values.” Click here for more on the slate of candidates.

Competitiveness data: Arizona

Arizona holds primaries on Aug. 2. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

June 23, 2022

In this issue: Updates on Alaska’s special House primary and SEIU switches candidates in FL-20

Primary results roundup

Here are recent results from marquee elections we’ve been following.

Alaska’s special U.S. House primary: Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), Al Gross (I), and Mary Peltola (D) were the top four finishers in Alaska’s special U.S. House primary—the first top-four congressional primary in U.S. history. 

Gross withdrew on Monday. The Division of Elections said Tuesday that fifth-place finisher Tara Sweeney (R) would not advance to the Aug. 16 special general election because Gross withdrew fewer than 64 days before the general. Lawsuits are possible. The Division plans to certify results Saturday. 

Forty-eight candidates ran in the special primary. Unofficial results from the final ballot count for the top five candidates are below.

• Palin (R): 27%
• Begich (R): 19%
• Gross (I): 13%
• Peltola (D): 10%
• Sweeney (R): 6%

Texas’ 15th runoff: A recount of votes in the May 24 runoff showed Michelle Vallejo defeating Ruben Ramirez by 35 votes. The Associated Press wrote that Vallejo’s victory “sets up a significant test this fall for progressive Democrats who backed her in the 15th Congressional District, one of two new U.S. House seats awarded to booming Texas after a decade of explosive growth driven by new Latino residents.”

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least four state legislators—all Republicans—lost in primary runoffs on June 21. Including those results, 111 state legislative incumbents have lost in primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 37 primaries featuring incumbents remain uncalled.

Across the 21 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 5.4% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 21 states that have held primaries so far, five had Democratic trifectas, 13 had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 21 states, there are 2,650 seats up for election, 43% of the nationwide total.

SEIU endorses Cherfilus-McCormick over Holness in switch from 2021

The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Florida chapter endorsed Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick in Florida’s 20th Congressional District, where she’s in a rematch with several candidates who ran in the 2021 special Democratic primary. That includes Dale Holness, who the SEIU backed last year. Cherfilus-McCormick defeated Holness by five votes in the 2021 special primary. 

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel‘s Anthony Man wrote, “SEIU mobilizes lots of campaign workers, easily recognizable by their trademark purple shirts, and can provide money. In the final days of the 2021 special primary campaign, expenditure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission showed the Service Employees International Union spent about $100,000 on behalf of Holness.”

Holness said when announcing his rematch bid for the district, “Families are hurting these days as the costs of everyday necessities — including housing, childcare, healthcare, gas, and groceries — continue to rise but wages fail to keep up. … Our communities deserve a champion with experience and follow-through to build a stronger, healthier future for all of us.” 

Cherfilus-McCormick said within her first 30 days in office, she cast important votes including for the COMPETES Act, which she said would contain inflation and “bolster American independence and self-sufficiency in manufacturing.” Cherfilus-McCormick said she is “the first Democrat of Haitian descent elected to Congress, and I am here to bring that voice and understanding and cultural competency of being a Caribbean, being a woman and representing a district full of minorities.”

Eight candidates are running in the Aug. 23 primary, five of whom ran in 2021.

SEIU Florida announced its endorsement as part of a slate of more than 60 candidates, including Charlie Crist in the gubernatorial primary.

U.S. Rep. Nydia Velázquez endorses Carlina Rivera in NY-10 primary

On June 16, U.S. Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.) endorsed New York City Council member Carlina Rivera in the Democratic primary for New York’s 10th Congressional District. Rivera is one of 17 candidates running in the Democratic primary. 

Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) represents the current 10th District. Due to redistricting, Nadler is running in the 12th District against Rep. Carolyn Maloney. Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-17) is running in the redrawn 10th District on a ballot that includes former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, and former U.S. Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman.

Velázquez is the fourth current member of Congress to endorse in the race so far. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), and Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) endorsed Jones in late May.

Velázquez said, “I’m sorry, why didn’t [Jones] run in the district that is a 9-plus Biden district?” The New York Times said she was referring to the 17th District. 

Jones’ campaign spokesman Bill Neidhardt said, “Rep. Jones refused to primary fellow Black progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman when his residence was drawn into Bowman’s district. … He also wanted to avoid a member-on-member primary with Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney,” who is running in the redrawn 17th.

New York’s U.S. House primaries are on Aug. 23.

Updates in IL-03: Satellite spending and candidate surveys 

Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District primary has seen around $2 million in satellite spending supporting two candidates: state Rep. Delia Ramirez and Chicago Alderman Gil Villegas. 

VoteVets Action Fund has spent nearly $1 million supporting Villegas and opposing Ramirez. A recent ad criticized Ramirez for joining a statement in 2020 calling to “defund the Chicago Police Department immediately.” 

Ramirez said in April, “I’m not the ‘Defund the police’ candidate. I actually helped secure $200 million for violence prevention and pension benefits for police and firefighters.”

The satellite spenders supporting Ramirez include the Working Families Party and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC. The Working Families Party has run ads saying Ramirez will support Medicare for All and abortion access and that Villegas helped send COVID relief funds to the Chicago police. 

All four primary candidates have filled out Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. Here are excerpts from candidates’ responses to the question: What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?

• Juan Aguirre: “Anti-Corruption legislation as well as legislation to end corporate America’s [exploitation] of the working class AND the nursing profession.”
• Iymen Chehade: “[Chehade] proposes an ambitious Marshall Plan for the United States, inspired by the post-World War II rebuilding of Europe.”
• Delia Ramirez: “Affordable Housing – Delia grew up volunteering at her church’s homeless shelter and became the Director of a homeless services agency at 21 years old.”
• Gil Villegas: “Public Safety … Families have a right to feel safe and secure in their own neighborhood, but crime is completely out of control. Enough is enough.” 

Click here to read the candidates’ full responses to this and other questions.

The district was drawn as a plurality-Latino district after the 2020 census. Rep. Marie Newman (D), the old 3rd District’s representative, is running in the 6th District. The primaries are on June 28.

United Democracy Project gets half of May donations from major GOP donors

Politico Weekly Score wrote that the “second-biggest-spending group in Democratic primaries this year was financed last month by major Republican megadonors,” referring to United Democracy Project and donors Paul Singer and Bernard Marcus. The super PAC, affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), reported $1 million in donations each from Singer and Marcus in May.

United Democracy Project has spent exclusively in U.S. House Democratic primaries this year, including Texas’ 28th (opposing Jessica Cisneros) and Ohio’s 11th (supporting Shontel Brown and opposing Nina Turner). The group recently released an ad opposing former Rep. Donna Edwards in Maryland’s 4th Congressional District primary, which takes place on July 19.

The United Democracy Project website says the group is “comprised of American citizens—Democrats, Republicans and Independents—united in the belief that America’s partnership with our democratic ally Israel benefits both countries.”

According to Open Secrets, the highest-spending group in this cycle’s Democratic primaries so far is Protect Our Future PAC at $19.9 million. United Democracy Project has spent $9.9 million. The third-highest is Democratic Majority for Israel at $5.8 million.   

Competitiveness data: Colorado and Oklahoma

Colorado and Oklahoma hold primaries on June 28. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Colorado

Oklahoma

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition

June 16, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from the June 14 primaries and Michigan gubernatorial candidates respond to Kelley’s arrest

Primary results roundup

Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina held primaries on June 14. Alaska also held its top-four special House primary on June 11. Here’s what went down in this week’s marquee races.

South Carolina’s 7th: Russell Fry defeated incumbent Rep. Tom Rice and five other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Fry had 51% of the vote to Rice’s 25%.

Rice is the fifth incumbent House member to lose a re-election bid this year and the third Republican. Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) and Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.) lost primaries against fellow incumbents. 

South Carolina’s 1st: Incumbent Nancy Mace defeated Katie Arrington. Mace led Arrington 53%-45% as of Wednesday morning. 

Arrington, a former state representative, won the district’s Republican primary in 2018, defeating incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford (R) before losing the general election to Joe Cunningham (D). Mace defeated Cunningham in 2020.

Mace said she was best equipped to win in November and that the district wants an independent voice. Arrington said Mace was not conservative enough and that she wasn’t sufficiently supportive of Trump. 

Three election forecasters rate the November election Solid or Safe Republican.

U.S. Senate in Nevada: Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt defeated Sam Brown and six other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Laxalt led Brown 56%-34%.

Laxalt had endorsements from Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). The Nevada Republican Party endorsed Brown, who received 80% of delegates’ support compared to Laxalt’s 50% (a candidate needed more than 50% for the endorsement). Laxalt faces incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in this Toss-up general election. 

Alaska’s U.S. House special: Saturday’s special primary election for Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District remains uncalled. The four candidates with the most votes will advance to the Aug. 16 special general election, which will use ranked-choice voting. As of election night, Sarah Palin (R) had 29.8% of the vote, Nicholas Begich III (R) had 19.3%, Al Gross (I) had 12.5%, Mary Peltola (D) had 7.5%, and Tara Sweeney (R) had 5.3%. The 43 other candidates each had less than 5%. The final ballot count is scheduled for June 21. The primary was conducted mainly through mail-in ballots, which had to be postmarked by June 11. Click here for the most up-to-date results.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least 11 state legislators—10 Republicans and one Democrat—lost in primaries on June 14. Including those results, 104 state legislative incumbents have lost primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 61 primaries featuring incumbents remain uncalled.

Across the 21 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 5.1% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 21 states that have held primaries so far, five had Democratic trifectas, 13 had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 21 states, there are 2,650 seats up for election, 43% of the nationwide total.

Media analysis

Politico Playbook wrote that the Republican primary candidates with whom Trump is angry who have won primaries had embraced Trump in their campaigns, while Rice did not: 

Republicans can survive crossing Trump, but rarely can they survive being anti-Trump … 

Trump went one for two in key South Carolina primaries last night.

…

What explains the difference? On last week’s “Playbook Deep Dive” podcast, we talked to South Dakota Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON about the lessons he learned winning a Republican primary after voting against Trump. (In his case, the vote was about creating an independent January 6 commission.)

“There are going to be times those votes cause you political discomfort,” Johnson said. “Don’t run away from them, but don’t run away from the electorate either.”

So far this year, the Trump-targeted Republicans who have survived his wrath have run campaigns that embrace Trump even as he spurns them. Whether it’s Idaho Gov. BRAD LITTLE, Johnson in South Dakota or Mace in South Carolina, these victors were all careful not to run against Trump.

In South Carolina, Rep. Rice actually told voters what he thought. Trump, he said in a recent interview with Ally Mutnick, was “spiteful and petty and vengeful” and a “narcissist” who “craves attention.” Rice lost. He ran away from the South Carolina GOP electorate. 

National Review‘s Alexandra DeSanctis wrote about other differences between South Carolina’s 1st and 7th District primaries that may have influenced outcomes for Mace and Rice:

What are we to make of the discrepancy? One way of looking at it is the degree of separation from the former president: Both Rice and Mace had angered him enough to get him to back a primary challenger, but only Rice had voted to impeach him over the events of January 6. Mace condemned the president in a speech and voted to certify the election results, but she didn’t join the ten GOP representatives who voted for impeachment.

Another possible explanation is Mace’s opponent. Arrington has played the role of a right-wing, Trump-supported challenger before, when she unseated former Republican representative Mark Sanford over his criticism of the former president. But Arrington went on to lose to the Democrat candidate in the general election, and perhaps voters were wary of a similar problem this November, though the climate this election year is, of course, quite different. The New York Times adds this bit of insight:

Ms. Mace raised more money than Ms. Arrington by a 2-to-1 margin and outspent her by more than $300,000 on the airwaves, according to the political spending tracker AdImpact. She courted the district’s most influential political and business leaders and, in the race’s final days, campaigned alongside a number of high-profile figures on the right, including a former Trump White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, and former Gov. Nikki Haley.

Irvin pulls ads from downstate, trails Bailey in recent Illinois gubernatorial poll

Politico reported that Richard Irvin’s campaign pulled a majority of its advertising from outside the Chicago metropolitan area. In addition to its focus on Chicago, the campaign is running ads statewide on Fox News. Spokeswoman Eleni Demertzis said that the campaign was reassessing its ad strategy and was not pulling ads due to a lack of money.

A recent Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ poll showed state Sen. Darren Bailey with a 32%-17% lead over Irvin. Jesse Sullivan was in third with 11%. Twenty-seven percent were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The poll showed Bailey leading in both the southern part of the state, where he’s from, and in the Chicago suburbs. Irvin is the mayor of Aurora, the state’s second-largest city and a suburb of Chicago. In Chicago itself, Irvin and Bailey were roughly tied for second (16% and 13%, respectively) behind Sullivan.

Chicago Sun-Times‘ Tina Sfondeles wrote that a Bailey victory “would represent a brutal repudiation by Illinois’ Republican voters of Irvin, his array of mainstream party endorsements and, most pointedly, his $50 million benefactor, Chicago hedge fund tycoon Ken Griffin.”

In response to the poll, Irvin said, “J.B. Pritzker is spending tens of millions of dollars meddling in the Republican primary to prop up a Republican that he knows he can beat. … A vote for Darren Bailey is a vote for J.B. Pritzker. Period.”

Irvin’s campaign has spent $26 million on ads so far this cycle. The Democratic Governors Association has run around $20 million in ads both supporting Bailey and attacking Irvin. People Who Play By The Rules PAC, which radio host Dan Proft created and GOP donor Richard Uihlein financially supports, has also spent $3 million on ads attacking Irvin.

Trump endorses Britt in Alabama’s U.S. Senate runoff

Former President Trump endorsed Katie Britt in the Senate primary runoff in Alabama. Trump had endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks in the GOP primary then rescinded that endorsement in March, citing comments Brooks made in 2021 about moving past the 2020 election. 

Trump said in July 2021 that Britt was unqualified and criticized her connection to retiring incumbent Sen. Richard Shelby (R), whom Trump called a RINO. Britt once served as Shelby’s chief of staff. Trump said in his recent endorsement, “The opposition says Katie is close to Mitch McConnell, but actually, she is not” and called her “a fearless America First Warrior.”

In a now-deleted tweet from June 5, Brooks asked Trump to re-endorse him. After Trump endorsed Britt, Brooks said, “Let’s just admit it: Trump endorses the wrong people sometimes.”

Brooks has served in the U.S. House since 2011. Britt is CEO of the Alabama Business Council.

The runoff is June 21. In the May 24 primary, Britt received 45% to Brooks’ 29%.

FBI arrests Michigan gubernatorial candidate on Jan. 6 misdemeanor charges

On June 9, federal agents arrested Ryan Kelley, one of five candidates seeking the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Michigan, on charges related to the U.S. Capitol breach during the electoral vote count on Jan. 6, 2021. Kelley was released on a personal recognizance bond, or a promise to appear in court when required, the same day. 

The New York Times‘ Azi Paybarah said Kelley “is the first person running for election in a major state or federal race to be charged in connection with the attack.” 

The government’s complaint charged Kelley with four misdemeanors: “Knowingly Entering or Remaining in any Restricted Building or Grounds Without Lawful Authority,” “Disorderly and Disruptive Conduct in a Restricted Building or Grounds,” “Knowingly [Engaging] in any Act of Physical Violence Against Person or Property in any Restricted Building or Grounds,” and “Willfully [injuring] or [committing] any Depredation Against any Property of the United States.”

On June 13, Kelley told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, “There was no crime committed, Tucker, no. … [I] never entered the Capitol building. … I think a lot of Americans see right through this … They understand what the Democrats are up to, and it’s not a big deal to them.”

The other primary candidates commented on the arrest: 

• Tudor Dixon: “The timing of this looks a lot like another example of political prosecution by a Democrat Party notorious for weaponizing government.” 
• Ralph Rebandt: “I publicly condemn this outrageous grandstanding, and I am praying that God will expose every evil attempt to silence the voice of American patriots.”
• Kevin Rinke: “I respect Ryan Kelley and have met him out on the trail. My hope is that the FBI is acting appropriately, because the timing here raises serious questions.”
• Garrett Soldano: “Biden’s FBI is busy targeting parents and intimidating Republicans while crime runs rampant across the nation.”

A few other updates since we last wrote about the disqualification of five candidates over fraudulent signatures on nominating petitions: On June 3, the Michigan Supreme Court denied appeals in lawsuits from James Craig, Perry Johnson, and Michael Markey. Craig said he will run a write-in campaign for the Republican primary. Johnson filed a federal lawsuit seeking to get his name back on the ballot. U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith denied his request. 

The primary is on Aug. 2. 

Competitiveness data: Virginia and Utah

Virginia holds primaries on June 21. Utah and Illinois hold primaries on June 28. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Virginia

Virginia held state legislative elections in 2021. The following shows competitiveness data for this year’s U.S. House primaries.

Utah

Illinois

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

June 16, 2022

In this issue: Working Families Party switches to Biaggi in NY-17 and an update on the 2024 primary early-state contender list

Primary results roundup

Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina held primaries on June 14. Alaska also held its top-four special House primary on June 11. Here’s what went down in this week’s marquee races.

Nevada’s 1st: Incumbent Dina Titus defeated Amy Vilela. As of Wednesday morning, Titus led Vilela 82%-18%. Titus has represented the 1st since 2013 and represented the 3rd from 2009 to 2011. Vilela was Nevada co-chair of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign.

Titus said, “I’ve used my voice to provide resources for those who need it most.” Titus contrasted her approach to Vilela’s: “I am a progressive, but I don’t believe in defunding the police. I’m for Medicare for all, but you’ve got to do it in a step-by-step process.”

Vilela described herself as a progressive Democrat and supported Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. Vilela said, “Time and time again, [Titus] has never faced a serious threat to her re-election from either party. With that kind of security, she has the opportunity to be a leading voice for bold, real progress. But she’s declined to do so.”

Election forecasters rate the general election Toss-up or Lean Democratic.  

Alaska’s U.S. House special: Saturday’s special primary election for Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District remains uncalled. The four candidates with the most votes will advance to the Aug. 16 special general election, which will use ranked-choice voting. As of election night, Sarah Palin (R) had 29.8% of the vote, Nicholas Begich III (R) had 19.3%, Al Gross (I) had 12.5%, Mary Peltola (D) had 7.5%, and Tara Sweeney (R) had 5.3%. The 43 other candidates each had under 5%. The final ballot count is scheduled for June 21. The primary was conducted mainly through mail-in ballots, which had to be postmarked by June 11. Click here for the most up-to-date results.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

At least 11 state legislators—10 Republicans and one Democrat—lost in primaries on June 14. Including those results, 104 state legislative incumbents have lost primaries this year. This number will likely increase: 61 primaries featuring incumbents remain uncalled.

Across the 21 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, 5.1% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 21 states that have held primaries so far, five had Democratic trifectas, 13 had Republican trifectas, and three had divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 21 states, there are 2,650 seats up for election, 43% of the nationwide total.

Working Families Party withdraws Maloney endorsement, backs Biaggi in NY-17

The Working Families Party of New York has revoked its endorsement of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th Congressional District. The party is now endorsing state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi.

The party endorsed Maloney in March, before a special master redrew the congressional district map and Maloney switched from the 18th District to the 17th. Rep. Mondaire Jones represents the current 17th District and moved his re-election bid to the new 10th District. 

Politico wrote, “The endorsement gives Biaggi access to arguably the state’s largest grassroots mobilization operation. The WFP’s canvassers have repeatedly helped topple well-tenured incumbents — including in the 2018 primaries, when Biaggi ousted former Independent Democratic Conference leader Sen. Jeff Klein in a district that stretches across the Bronx and Westchester County.”

Biaggi said, “We were in an underdog situation — similar to the way we are here — and we won.”

Maloney’s communications director Mia Ehrenberg said, “On the ground in the 17th, local leaders have made it overwhelmingly clear that they trust and support Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) recently endorsed Biaggi, and the Communication Workers of America District 1 backed Maloney. The primary is Aug. 23.

Biaggi was running in the 3rd District before the map redraw. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who is running for governor, represents the current 3rd.

Over in the gubernatorial primary, The New York Times recently endorsed incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D). That primary is June 28.

Annette Taddeo withdraws, endorses Crist in Florida gubernatorial primary

State Sen. Annette Taddeo endorsed U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist for governor following her exit from the Democratic primary. In her endorsement, Taddeo said Crist is “our strongest candidate to defeat Ron DeSantis.”

Crist was elected governor of Florida as a Republican in 2006. He left the Republican Party in 2010 and lost the U.S. Senate election running as an independent that year. Taddeo was Crist’s running mate on the Democratic ticket in the 2014 gubernatorial election. Rick Scott defeated Crist 48%-47%. Crist then defeated incumbent Rep. David Jolly (R) in the 2016 election for Florida’s 13th Congressional District 52%-48%.

Crist and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried have garnered the most media attention of the Democratic candidates currently in the race. The filing deadline is June 17. 

Fried defeated Matt Caldwell (R) by 6,753 votes in the open agriculture commissioner race in 2018. Fried is the only Democrat to win statewide elected office since 2012, when Barack Obama (D) won the state in the presidential election and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D) was re-elected. (Nelson lost his 2018 re-election bid to Scott.)

Election forecasters rate the November gubernatorial election Likely Republican.

After withdrawing from the gubernatorial race, Taddeo announced she will run in the 27th Congressional District. Taddeo will face Angel Montalvo and Ken Russell in the Democratic primary. Bold PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ political action committee, endorsed Taddeo in the House race.

Election forecasters rate the 27th District general election Likely or Solid Republican. 

Baker exits Maryland gubernatorial primary

Former Prince George County Executive Rushern Baker suspended his campaign for Maryland governor, citing “financial challenges facing [his] campaign in the coming weeks.” 

Candidates filed updated finance reports on June 14. The Baltimore Sun reported combined cash-on-hand totals from committees of leading gubernatorial candidates and their lieutenant gubernatorial running mates: Former nonprofit CEO Wes Moore’s team had $1.8 million on hand as of June 7. State Comptroller Peter Franchot’s team had $1.6 million. Former DNC chair Tom Perez’s team had $1.2 million. Baker reported around $12,000 on hand.

A recent OpinionWorks of Annapolis poll found a plurality of likely Democratic primary voters—31%—undecided. Franchot had 20%, Moore 15%, Perez 12%, and Baker 7%. Six other candidates each had under 5%. The margin of error was +/- 4.1 percentage points. 

Baker’s name will still appear on the ballot as the deadline to officially withdraw passed in April. The primary is July 19.

Incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is term-limited. Three race forecasters view the general election as Lean or Likely Democratic.

Early presidential primary state contender list narrowed

Along with 2022’s primary election news, we’re keeping you up to date on developments in the 2024 presidential primaries, which may involve a reworked Democratic primary calendar.

In April, the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee approved a plan to choose up to five states or territories to hold their nominating contests before the first Tuesday in March 2024. Committee co-chairs Jim Roosevelt and Minyon Moore announced that New York, Nebraska, and Democrats Abroad are out of the running.

The three were eliminated for not meeting one or more of the committee’s criteria of diversity, general election competitiveness, and feasibility (which includes considerations such as whether they will run a “fair, transparent and inclusive nominating process” and can move their contest to an earlier time). 

The co-chairs said the cost of campaigning in New York along with its proportion of urban voters and solid blue status were among the reasons the state was eliminated. According to the co-chairs, Nebraska’s plan to have a party-run contest along with the state-run contest could be confusing, and Democrats Abroad’s lack of geographic location would present logistical challenges. Democrats Abroad describes itself as “the official Democratic Party arm for the 9 million Americans living outside the United States.”

States that applied for early-state status will make their cases before the Rules and Bylaws Committee at a meeting from June 22-24. Puerto Rico and the following states are still in the running: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Washington. 

In other 2024 news, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said he won’t run for president again if President Joe Biden seeks re-election. Sanders said, “I think Biden will probably run again, and if he runs again, I will support him.”

Competitiveness data: Virginia and Utah

Virginia holds primaries on June 21. Utah and Illinois hold primaries on June 28. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Virginia

Virginia held state legislative elections in 2021. The following shows competitiveness data for this year’s U.S. House primaries.

Utah

Illinois

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Republican Edition

May 12, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from Tuesday’s big primaries and the Connecticut GOP endorses Klarides

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Mooney defeats McKinley, Pillen defeats Herbster

West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Alex Mooney defeated Rep. David McKinley and three others. Based on unofficial returns, Mooney received 54% of the vote and McKinley received 36%.

The incumbents ran against one another because the state lost a congressional district following the 2020 census. McKinley currently represents 66% of the new 2nd District and Mooney represents 34%.

Mooney’s backers included former President Donald Trump (R) and the House Freedom Fund. Gov. Jim Justice (R) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) were among McKinley’s supporters. Throughout the primary, Mooney criticized McKinley’s vote for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. McKinley criticized Mooney for previously holding office in Maryland and running unsuccessful campaigns in both Maryland and New Hampshire.

Three independent race forecasters consider the general as Solid or Safe Republican. 

Nebraska Governor: University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen defeated Charles Herbster, state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, and six others. Pillen received 34% of the vote to Herbster’s 30% and Lindstrom’s 26%.

Incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) endorsed Pillen, while Lt. Gov. Mike Foley (R) backed Herbster. Herbster also had an endorsement from Trump. The Nebraska Farm Bureau endorsed Pillen. 

Herbster chaired Trump’s Agriculture and Rural Advisory Committee. As we wrote previously, the Nebraska Examiner‘s Aaron Sanderford reported last month that eight women, including state Sen. Julie Slama (R), had accused Herbster of sexual misconduct occurring between 2017 and 2022. Herbster denied the allegations and said they were “part of a greater scheme calculated to try and defeat [his] candidacy.” At a May 1 rally, Trump said Herbster was “innocent of these despicable charges.”

Pillen said he had a record of resisting critical race theory, while Herbster said Pillen didn’t do enough to oppose it. The Nebraska Examiner wrote that “Herbster pointed to Pillen’s 2018 vote, as a University of Nebraska regent, in support of hiring a leader to create a new Office of Diversity and Inclusion at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. … Pillen’s campaign said that he was the first elected university regent in the U.S. to stand up against critical race theory and that he is a recognized leader in higher ed on the issue.”  

Ricketts is term-limited. Major independent observers rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican. Republicans have had trifecta control of Nebraska state government since 1999.

Nebraska State Board of Education District 7: Elizabeth Tegtmeier and incumbent Robin Stevens advanced from the top-two primary. Tegtmeier received 62% of the vote to Stevens’ 20%. The third candidate, Pat Moore, received 17%. The race has featured conflict around proposed health education standards the board considered and then voted to pause in 2021. The election is nonpartisan, though the candidates are affiliated with the Republican Party.

Defeated incumbents

U.S. House:

McKinley is the first U.S. House incumbent to lose a primary this cycle. In Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, former U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) resigned on March 31 after being found guilty in a federal campaign finance investigation, but his name remained on the ballot. State Sen. Mike Flood (R) won that race.

State executives:

Nebraska held several primaries for state executive offices. District 4 Public Service Commissioner Rod Johnson (R) lost to Eric Kamler (R).

There are three races featuring incumbents that remain too close to call. In one of those races, the Republican incumbent is trailing a challenger as of Thursday morning: Challenger Kevin Stocker (R) has a 3-percentage-point lead over Public Service Commissioner Mary Ridder (R) in District 5.

State legislature:

All eight Republican incumbents seeking re-election to the Nebraska Senate (the state’s only legislative chamber) will advance to the general election. 

Since 2010, only one incumbent Nebraska state senator has lost in a contested primary: Sen. Nicole Fox (R) in 2016. Ricketts appointed Fox to the seat in 2015 after the Democratic incumbent resigned.

In West Virginia, one incumbent is confirmed to have lost: Incumbent George Miller (R) defeated incumbent Ken Reed (R) in the state House. There are 17 Republican primaries featuring incumbents—16 in the House and one in the Senate—that remain too close to call.

In 2020, 10 GOP state legislators in West Virginia lost primaries. Four lost in 2018.

The following table shows data from 15 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from four states—Indiana, Nebraska, Texas, and West Virginia—where state legislative primaries have taken place.

Media analysis

The Wall Street Journal‘s Joshua Jamerson said the incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary in West Virginia’s 2nd tested Republicans’ sentiment on compromise:

The West Virginia race offers a glimpse at GOP sentiment toward the infrastructure law and the broader idea of compromising with Democrats. An aide to McKinley, before the results came in, said Mr. Mooney’s criticisms have made traction with voters, causing Mr. McKinley to explain his vote and tout the money being steered toward West Virginia.

FiveThirtyEight‘s Nathaniel Rakich said that Herbster’s loss doesn’t indicate a decrease in Trump’s influence:

[Nebraska’s Republican gubernatorial primary] had been seen as a proxy war between Trump and the establishment and moderate wings of the GOP. And thanks to Pillen’s win, the next governor of Nebraska will likely¹ be someone with deep ties to the state’s political and economic establishment who has accepted President Biden’s election, rather than someone who believes that China orchestrated the coronavirus pandemic and spent Jan. 6, 2021, in the Trump war room. …

But at the same time, this loss isn’t evidence that Trump’s influence with the Republican base is slipping. Herbster was far from a perfect candidate … Ultimately, Trump’s endorsement wasn’t powerful enough to drag Herbster to victory, but his endorsement remains an asset in any Republican primary. Just ask Rep. Alex Mooney, who decisively won his primary last night in West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. 

Connecticut GOP endorses Themis Klarides for U.S. Senate

The Republican Party of Connecticut voted to endorse Themis Klarides for U.S. Senate at its convention Saturday and guaranteed two other candidates spots on the ballot.

Klarides received 57% of the delegate vote, followed by 23% for Leora Levy and 20% for Peter Lumaj. Candidates who received 15% or more of the delegate vote qualified automatically for the primary without needing to collect petitions.

The CT Mirror wrote that “Levy and Lumaj embrace Trump and oppose abortion and gun control, positions separating them from Klarides.” Klarides served as state House minority leader from 2015 to 2021. Klarides voted in favor of a bill that introduced a new set of regulations on firearms following the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012. Klarides also supports a legal framework for access to abortion. Klarides said she voted for write-in candidate Lawrence Cafero rather than Donald Trump (R) for president in 2020. 

The three convention-qualified candidates, as well as any who qualify via petition ahead of the June 7 filing deadline, will compete in an Aug. 9 primary. Incumbent Richard Blumenthal (D) is seeking re-election. 

Klarides said, “Listen, we agree on way more than we disagree on, and it’s healthy to disagree on some things. If we agree on 70%, you need to focus on the candidate that has the best chance to win in November. I’m the only [Republican] candidate in the race that’s ever won an election. I’ve won 11 elections in a Democrat-leaning district.”

Levy said, “I put a lot of my own money in, much more than my opponent has. … No matter what, I will let the Republican voters of the state of Connecticut decide who their candidate will be to go up against Dick Blumenthal.”

Lumaj said, “I want to make sure that if I get to the U.S. Senate we get someone who has the backbone and the character and fortitude to defend the Constitution.”

A Republican has not been elected to the U.S. Senate in Connecticut since 1982 or to the House since 2004. Independent forecasters currently rate the Senate general election Safe or Solid Democratic.

Super PAC switches gears from Ohio to Pennsylvania, Barnette rises in polls

The USA Freedom Fund spent on ads supporting Josh Mandel and opposing J.D. Vance, the winner in Ohio’s U.S. Senate primary. The PAC is now spending in Pennsylvania opposing Mehmet Oz’s Senate bid. Meanwhile, candidate Kathy Barnette has risen in polls in recent weeks, showing numbers on par with Oz and David McCormick.

The day after Vance’s Ohio win, USA Freedom Fund released an ad saying Oz “glorif[ied] transgender kids” on his TV show. 

Axios reported that “Mandel and David McCormick, Oz’s top primary opponent, share a general consultant: the powerhouse Republican firm Axiom Strategies.” Axiom worked on Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign and Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 Virginia gubernatorial campaign.

Former President Trump endorsed Vance in Ohio and Oz in Pennsylvania. Axios wrote, “During the Ohio race, the USA Freedom Fund was largely funded by the Club for Growth, which feuded with Donald Trump and his allies over its attacks on Vance.” The Club endorsed Mandel in Ohio and has not endorsed in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. A Club representative said the group was not involved with USA Freedom Fund’s Pennsylvania effort.

In several recent polls, Barnette was effectively tied with Oz and McCormick. A Trafalgar poll from early May showed Oz with 25%, Barnette with 23%, and McCormick with 22%. The margin of error was +/- 3.0 percentage points.

The primary is May 17.

Percentage of each congressional caucus not seeking re-election

Fifty-five members of Congress are not running for re-election in 2022, including 33 Democrats and 22 Republicans. For Democrats, this is a larger percentage of the party’s House and Senate caucuses to retire in one cycle—12.2%—than in any cycle dating back to 2014. For Republicans, this represents 8.4% of the party’s caucuses.

The highest recent percentage of Republicans retiring was in 2018, when 12.6% of the party’s caucus—37 members—didn’t run for re-election. That year, Republicans gained two Senate seats and lost 35 House districts.

The lowest recent percentage of Democrats retiring was in 2020, when 10 members—3.6% of the caucus—didn’t run. Democrats gained three Senate seats and lost 10 House districts. 

The lowest recent percentage of Republican congressional retirements was in 2016. Twenty-six Republicans announced their retirement—8.6% of the caucus. Republicans lost two Senate seats and five House districts.

Competitiveness data: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s filing deadline for congressional and statewide candidates was March 15. The filing deadline for state legislative candidates was March 28.

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

May 12, 2022

In this issue: Fetterman has big lead in Pennsylvania Senate primary and an update on the 2024 presidential primary calendar

Primary recap

Nebraska and West Virginia held primaries on Tuesday. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District was our only battleground Democratic primary of the night. 

State Sen. Tony Vargas defeated therapist and 2020 U.S. Senate primary candidate Alisha Shelton. Vargas said he has been a bipartisan leader in the state Senate. Vargas faces incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R) in November. Independent forecasters view the general election as Lean or Likely Republican.

Defeated incumbents

U.S. House:

There were no incumbent Democratic members of Congress from Nebraska or West Virginia with elections on Tuesday.

State executives:

Nebraska held several partisan and top-two primaries for various state executive offices. No Democratic incumbents were defeated.

State legislature:

All three incumbent Democrats seeking re-election to the Nebraska Senate will advance to the general election. Since 2010, only one incumbent state senator has lost in a contested primary in Nebraska: Sen. Nicole Fox (R) in 2016. Ricketts appointed Fox to the seat in 2015 after the Democratic incumbent resigned.

In West Virginia, two Democratic incumbents lost primaries so far: Incumbent Owens Brown (D) lost to Randy Swartzmiller (D) in the state Senate primary. In the state House, incumbent Chad Lovejoy (D) lost to incumbent Ric Griffith (D).

In 2020, no Democratic incumbents lost state legislative primaries in West Virginia. One did in 2018.

The following table shows data from 15 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from four states—Indiana, Nebraska, Texas, and West Virginia—where state legislative primaries have taken place.

Dueling newspaper endorsements in Pennsylvania as Fetterman widens lead in poll

The Philadelphia Tribune endorsed John Fetterman in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, while The Philadelphia Inquirer endorsed Conor Lamb. A recent poll showed Fetterman leading Lamb 53%-14%.

In its endorsement of Fetterman, The Philadelphia Tribune wrote:

On the issues, the Democratic candidates aren’t that far apart, but Fetterman has demonstrated through his campaign that he is the candidate with the broadest appeal across the state and is the best candidate to represent the Democratic Party’s agenda.

His background as the former mayor of Braddock, a small industrial town in Allegheny County with a large percentage of African Americans in Allegheny County, helps bring a diversity of experience that allows him to connect with residents from small rural communities to Philadelphia, the state’s largest city.

The Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board wrote of Lamb: 

Pennsylvanians deserve a senator who is more than just a plus-one vote for the Democratic caucus in the Senate; it’s crucial that voters elect a candidate who would add value by representing the commonwealth. Based on his history of winning extremely competitive general elections, his familiarity with Congress from his time in the House of Representatives, and his thoughtfulness on tough policy questions, we endorse Conor Lamb.

The latest Franklin & Marshall College poll from April 20 to May 1 showed Fetterman with 53% support, Lamb with 14%, and Malcolm Kenyatta with 4%. Twenty-two percent were undecided. The margin of error was +/- 6.6 percentage points. The college’s last poll, from March 30 to April 10, showed Fetterman ahead of Lamb 41%-17%.

The only other independent pollster in the race is Emerson College. A poll from the end of March showed Fetterman ahead of Lamb 33%-10%.

The primary is May 17.

Policy differences emerge in Iowa’s U.S. Senate primary

Differences between Iowa’s Democratic Senate candidates on Ukraine and healthcare were on display both in a May 7 debate and in a new ad from candidate Michael Franken.

All three candidates in the race—Abby Finkenauer, Franken, and Glenn Hurst—participated in the debate. According to KCRG’s Mollie Swayne, “One topic where there was a significant difference of opinion was on sending American troops to aid Ukraine. Finkenauer and Hurst said there was no point at which to do so. Franken said yes, if Vladimir Putin used a nuclear weapon.” 

You can watch the debate here. 

Franken, a retired U.S. Navy vice admiral, released his second ad on May 3. Franken said, “I’m running for the Senate to take on the big fights, from challenging drug and insurance companies with ‘Medicare for All’ to standing up for the environment, women’s rights, and democracy at home and abroad.”

The Washington Post’s David Weigel wrote, “National Democrats have already gotten behind former representative Abby Finkenauer, but Franken is still running for U.S. Senate, endorsing Medicare-for-all on the knowledge that Finkenauer won’t go there.” 

Finkenauer’s campaign website didn’t include a section on healthcare policy as of May 11. The website emphasizes her support for 12-year congressional term limits and says, “In Congress she built a reputation as someone who would work with anyone in either party to get things done, including funding the Children’s Health Insurance Program, strengthening Iowa’s flood prevention infrastructure and securing needed resources for our rural communities.” Finkenauer represented Iowa’s 1st Congressional District from 2019 to 2021 and was a member of the state House from 2015 to 2019. 

Hurst is a physician, a member of the Minden City Council, and chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party’s Rural Caucus. Hurst calls himself “the only progressive in this race” and said, “I’m a Green New Deal Democrat. I’m Medicare for all Democrat. I align more closely with an Elizabeth Warren than a Pete Buttigieg.”

The primary is on June 7. Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley is running for re-election. 

An update on the 2024 presidential primary calendar: 18 states apply for early spot

We wrote in March that the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) Rules and Bylaws Committee discussed changing the election calendar ahead of the 2024 presidential primaries. In April, the committee approved a plan to choose up to five states to hold their nominating contests before the first Tuesday in March 2024. The deadline for states to submit letters of intent to apply for an early spot was May 6. 

Eighteen states plus Puerto Rico and Democrats Abroad submitted letters of intent. The states are: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Washington.

According to CBS News:

The committee will consider three main criteria for selecting the early states in 2024: diversity, competitiveness and feasibility. Diversity, according to the resolution, includes weighing racial, ethnic, geographic and economic diversity, as well as union representation. 

National Democrats will also consider how competitive states are in the general election. Among the feasibility requirements that the committee will examine are whether states can move their contest into the early window, if they can run a “fair, transparent and inclusive nominating process” and the logistical requirements and cost of campaigning in that state. 

Iowa has held the nation’s first presidential nominating contest since 1972. See our story from March for more on the debate around Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status. The DNC’s decision on early-contest states is expected in July.  

Percentage of each congressional caucus not seeking re-election

Fifty-five members of Congress are not running for re-election in 2022, including 33 Democrats and 22 Republicans. For Democrats, this is a larger percentage of the party’s House and Senate caucuses to retire in one cycle—12.2%—than in any cycle dating back to 2014. For Republicans, this represents 8.4% of the party’s caucuses.

The highest recent percentage of Republicans retiring was in 2018, when 12.6% of the party’s caucus—37 members—didn’t run for re-election. That year, Republicans gained two Senate seats and lost 35 House districts.

The lowest recent percentage of Democrats retiring was in 2020, when 10 members—3.6% of the caucus—didn’t run. Democrats gained three Senate seats and lost 10 House districts. 

The lowest recent percentage of Republican congressional retirements was in 2016. Twenty-six Republicans announced their retirement—8.6% of the caucus. Republicans lost two Senate seats and five House districts.

Competitiveness data: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s filing deadline for congressional and statewide candidates was March 15. The filing deadline for state legislative candidates was March 28.

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Welcome to The Heart of the Primaries, Democratic Edition

May 5, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from Ohio’s primaries and the intensifying abortion debate in TX-28 runoff

May 3 primary results roundup

Ohio and Indiana held primary elections on Tuesday. Indiana’s ballot included state legislative elections, while Ohio’s did not, as redistricting is still underway. Key Democratic primaries took place in Ohio. Below, you’ll find results from marquee Democratic primaries and takeaways.

The big story of the night: Brown wins rematch with Turner in OH-11 

Ohio’s 11th Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Shontel Brown defeated Nina Turner in Ohio’s 11th Congressional District for the second time in less than a year. Brown defeated Turner 66%-34% in this year’s primary and 50%-45% in the August 2021 special primary.

Brown assumed office in November 2021, succeeding Rep. Marcia Fudge (D), who resigned that year to become U.S. secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Brown said she kept her promise to work with President Joe Biden (D) by voting for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and campaigned on her record. Turner said Brown hadn’t done enough to change the material conditions of the district’s poor and low-income residents.

Biden endorsed Brown, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Turner. The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC endorsed Brown, a change from 2021 when it endorsed Turner. Brown became a member of the caucus after she took office. 

This is a Safe or Solid Democratic district, according to three election forecasters.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

• Ohio Senate: Tim Ryan received 70% of the vote, defeating Morgan Harper and Traci Johnson. Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) is retiring. Race forecasters disagree on this race’s outlook, calling it Lean, Likely, or Solid Republican.

Local

• Nashville District Attorney: Incumbent Glenn Funk won with 43%. Sarah Beth Myers was second with 40%. Myers and P. Danielle Nellis criticized Funk’s record, including his handling of a case involving an officer charged with criminal homicide. Funk defended his record.

Defeated incumbents

No Democratic incumbents lost in Tuesday’s primaries.

As with 2022, no incumbent Democratic state legislators in Indiana lost primary bids in 2020 or 2018.

The following shows data from 14 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from two states—Texas and Indiana—where state legislative elections have taken place.

Media analysis

The Associated Press‘ Nicholas Riccardi said Ohio’s 11th District results are a reminder that the establishment has an advantage in Democratic primaries:

Brown’s easy victory is a reminder that the left has a very uneven track record in Democratic primaries, notching a few high-profile wins like that of U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York City, but mostly a long string of losses. Trump may have changed Republican primaries, but Democratic ones still tilt toward the same establishment that has run the party for decades. 

Vox‘s Christian Paz said that while progressive candidates lost, progressive ideas won on May 3:

Though establishment-aligned candidates won in races around Ohio, they didn’t get there without embracing a slight leftward shift in their priorities.

…

Ryan and Brown, in their respective races, … pulled together ideas from the center and left in their pitches to voters, specifically on job creation, labor-organizing protections, a $15 minimum wage, and lowering health care costs. Though they beat left-leaning challengers, their wins also show that challenges from the left can push more moderate candidates to consider the substance of progressive demands.

Cisneros’ first TV ad on abortion, candidates respond to leaked SCOTUS opinion draft 

Between Jessica Cisneros’ first runoff TV ad and the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion on Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, abortion has remained in the spotlight in Texas’ 28th Congressional District primary runoff. 

Last week, Cisneros released her first runoff TV ad, which contrasts her position on abortion with that of incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar (D). The ad’s narrator said, “We showed up and spoke out when Texas Republicans passed the most extreme abortion ban in the country. But Henry Cuellar sided with them, the Lone Democrat, against a woman’s right to make her own decisions, even opposing life-saving care.” 

Cuellar was the only House Democrat to vote against the Women’s Health Protection Act, introduced in the U.S. House after Senate Bill 8 became law in Texas. The act would have legalized abortion nationally.

On May 2, Politico published a leaked initial draft opinion from the Supreme Court in which Justice Samuel Alito wrote, “We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled.”

Cuellar said, “I do not support abortion, however, we cannot have an outright ban. There must be exceptions in the case of rape, incest, and danger to the life of the mother. … My faith will not allow me to support a ruling that would criminalize teenage victims of rape and incest. That same faith will not allow me to support a ruling that would make a mother choose between her life and her child’s.”

Cisneros said, “As the Supreme Court prepares to overturn Roe v. Wade, I am calling on Democratic Party leadership to withdraw their support of Henry Cuellar who is the last anti-choice Democrat in the House” and that “with the House majority on the line, he could very much be the deciding vote on the future of our reproductive rights and we cannot afford to take that risk.”

House Minority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) campaigned for Cuellar at a get-out-the-vote rally in San Antonio Wednesday night. Cuellar previously received endorsements from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), meaning he has support from all three House Democratic leaders.

The race is a rematch. Cuellar won the 2020 primary 52%-48%. In this year’s primary, Cuellar received 48% to Cisneros’ 47%. Tannya Benavides received 5%. The primary runoff is May 24.

Our Revolution chapter endorses Tom Nelson for Senate in Wisconsin

Our Wisconsin Revolution, a state affiliate of Our Revolution, endorsed Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate primary. Our Revolution’s website says it is “America’s leading grassroots-funded progressive political organizing group.” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) founded the group.

Nelson said, “I am the proven progressive in this race. I have consistently championed economic, social and racial justice issues, so voters know exactly where I stand, unlike others in the race. … I’m the one who consistently champions these progressive issues like Medicare for All and Green New Deal. I’m the only one who opposes Title 42.” 

The health order invoking Title 42 is a pandemic-related restriction on immigration at U.S. land borders.

Politico‘s Holly Otterbein wrote about the endorsement in connection with Lt. Gov. and Senate candidate Mandela Barnes’ ideological positioning: “[W]hile Barnes backs Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, he has not made them the central focus of his campaign.” Otterbein also noted Barnes’ opposition to Biden’s plan to end the health order invoking Title 42. 

Our Wisconsin Revolution executive director Andre Walton said Barnes didn’t fill out a questionnaire, which meant he couldn’t be considered for the endorsement.

A campaign representative told Politico that Barnes has endorsements from “more than 130 local elected officials in Wisconsin, influential local and national groups, and members of Congress from all corners of the Democratic Party, from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Cory Booker to [House] Majority Whip Jim Clyburn.”

Nelson’s other endorsers include Sunrise Movement Wisconsin and several local officials.

We’ve tracked 11 candidates running in the Aug. 9 primary so far. Nelson, Alex Lasry, and Kou Lee have filled out Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. Click their names to read their responses. 

The four candidates who reported raising more than $1 million as of March 31 were Lasry ($9.1 million), Sarah Godlewski ($5.1 million), Barnes ($4.1 million), and Nelson ($1.2 million). Lasry’s total includes $5.8 million he loaned his campaign, and Godlewski’s includes $2.9 million she loaned her campaign. 

Hoyer endorses Moore in Maryland gubernatorial primary, breaking with Pelosi

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) endorsed Wes Moore in the Maryland Democratic primary for governor. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who is from Baltimore, Maryland, previously endorsed former Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez.

Hoyer said, “Wes stands out as a candidate whose experience, vision, and talent can lead Maryland toward a brighter future by inspiring our people — particularly our young people — to work together to face our toughest challenges.”

Pelosi credited Perez’s DNC leadership with giving Democrats control of the House and Senate and getting President Joe Biden elected. Pelosi said Perez has “the best opportunity to flip the state of Maryland.”

Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is term-limited. Hogan won the open 2014 race against then-Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown (D) 51%-47%. Hogan was re-elected in 2018, defeating Ben Jealous (D) 55%-44%.

Ten candidates are running in the Democratic primary, including Prince George’s County Executive and 2018 gubernatorial primary candidate Rushern Baker III, state Comptroller Peter Franchot, former Maryland Attorney General Doug Gansler, and former U.S. Education Secretary John King Jr.

The primary is July 19.

Competitiveness data: South Dakota  

South Dakota’s filing deadline for congressional and state candidates was March 29.

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

South Dakota

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

In this issue: Trump endorses Huizenga in MI-04 and rescinds Brooks endorsement in Alabama

Trump endorses Huizenga in MI-04, Carra drops out

On March 11, former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Rep. Bill Huizenga in the Republican primary for Michigan’s 4th Congressional District. Huizenga, who has represented Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District since 2011, announced he would run for re-election in the 4th District following redistricting. 

The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission adopted a new congressional map in December that placed Huizenga in the 4th District alongside Rep. Fred Upton (R). Upton has represented Michigan’s 6th Congressional District since 1993 and has not announced whether he’ll seek re-election.

On March 15, state Rep. Steve Carra (R) ended his candidacy in the 4th District primary. Carra said, “Now that Bill Huizenga has President Trump’s and my support in the newly formed 4th Congressional district, he has a clear path to victory.” Carra initially planned to challenge Upton in the 6th District, saying Upton “is seen as a moderate. … He is anti-Second Amendment; he voted for amnesty, he voted to impeach (former President Donald) Trump.” In September, Trump endorsed Carra in the 6th. Carra announced earlier this year he’d run in the 4th District. 

Upton was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump (Huizenga did not). 

Upton released an ad in February in which he said, “I’m not afraid to take on anyone when they’re wrong and work with anyone when they’re right. … If you want a rubber stamp as your congressman, I’m the wrong guy.” In a statement, Upton said, “Some believe the heart, soul and values of the Republican Party are defined by Donald Trump, but I believe our values are better defined by those espoused by Ronald Reagan. … Peace through strength, fiscal responsibility, dignity and honor.”

Huizenga said he’d worked with Trump on law enforcement, energy, and border issues and that he is “honored to have President Trump’s support in this fight.”

The filing deadline is set for April 19 and the primary for Aug. 2.

Trump rescinds Brooks endorsement in Alabama U.S. Senate primary

On March 23, Trump rescinded his endorsement of Mo Brooks in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Alabama, saying Brooks “made a horrible mistake recently when he went ‘woke’ and stated, referring to the 2020 Presidential Election Scam, ‘Put that behind you, put that behind you.'” 

Brooks was the first member of Congress to vote against certifying the 2020 election. He was booed at a rally in August 2021 after telling the crowd they should move past the 2020 election. 

On March 15, Trump said he was disappointed with Brooks’ remarks at the August rally. On March 16, Brooks released a campaign ad highlighting his speech at Trump’s rally on Jan. 6, 2021, and Trump’s endorsement. Brooks said in an interview with AL.com the same day that Trump’s comments surprised him and that “[Trump] wants me to remove Joe Biden from office so he can be president. … But the law doesn’t permit that.”
Trump said he’d make a new endorsement before the May 24 primary. Five other Republicans are running.

The Senate primaries with the most satellite spending

Decision Desk HQ‘s March 21 newsletter broke down independent expenditures in U.S. Senate primaries by top states, spenders, and supported or opposed candidates. Derek Willis wrote,

Outside spending in Senate primaries has already passed $68 million, well above the $48 million spent on Senate primaries at this point in the 2020 cycle. …

Republican races have so far brought in the bulk of independent expenditures reported to the Federal Election Commission: of the $68 million, just $2.7 million has been spent supporting or criticizing Democratic candidates.

As of March 18, four states saw satellite spending of more than $10 million on Senate primaries: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Alabama, and North Carolina. Republican incumbents are retiring in all four states. In Arizona, the state that’s seen the fifth-highest satellite spending, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is seeking re-election.

Seventeen PACs spent more than $1 million on Senate primaries—15 on Republican primaries (the Democratic PACs on the list, Moveon.org Political Action and Senate Majority PAC, had the 8th- and 16th-highest spending totals, respectively). 

Club for Growth Action spent the most at more than $14 million as of March 18. The group has spent on primaries in North Carolina, where it endorsed Ted Budd, and Ohio, where it endorsed Josh Mandel and has released ads opposing J.D. Vance and Jane Timken.

The second-highest spender, Honor Pennsylvania, Inc., supports David McCormick in Pennsylvania. The group has released ads opposing Mehmet Oz and has spent $8.6 million.

Protect Ohio Values, the only other PAC to have spent more than $5 million, supports Vance in Ohio. 

Oz, Vance, and Budd are the top three subjects of satellite spending. Also on the list are Brooks in Alabama and Blake Masters in Arizona.

Decision Desk HQ will break down satellite spending in House races next week.

Special primary to finish Don Young’s term will be the first congressional top-four primary

Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska), the longest-serving Republican representative in U.S. history, died on March 18. 

The special primary on June 11 to complete the remainder of Young’s term will be the first congressional primary using the state’s new top-four primary system. Every candidate will appear on the same primary ballot, regardless of party affiliation. The top four candidates will advance to the general election, in which voters can rank their preferences rather than voting for a single candidate. 

Voters approved the new system via ballot measure in 2020. Click here for more details.

The special primary election will be held by mail. The special general election will take place alongside the regular primary election on Aug. 16. 

April 1 is the filing deadline for the special primary. At least two candidates have said they’ll run in the special election: Nick Begich (R) and Christopher Constant (D). Both are also running in the regularly scheduled election. 

We’ve tracked five Republicans, one Democrat, and one independent running in the regular primary so far. 

Ricketts, Foley split on gubernatorial endorsements in Nebraska

On March 15, Lt. Gov. Mike Foley (R) endorsed rancher Charles Herbster in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Foley said, “Charles is a job creator who has invested in this state. He is rooted in our conservative values and will rely on those values when leading our great state.” Trump endorsed Herbster in October.    

Incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts (R), who is term-limited, endorsed University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen in January. Following Foley’s endorsement of Herbster, Ricketts said, “I was very disappointed with the lieutenant governor’s choice. … I think it’s incredibly poor judgment on his part.” Ricketts said Herbster had put jobs in a different state and paid property taxes late and that Herbster would have difficulty recruiting businesses to the state.

Herbster’s campaign said that he “leads in the polls and leads the charge to be the next Governor of Nebraska. Like many of us, he wishes the current Governor, Pete Ricketts, would spend his remaining time in the office helping the state and staying out of politics.”

Pillen said, “It’s disappointing, but not surprising, that Mike Foley is endorsing Charles Herbster. He was pretty unhappy when I turned down his request to be my lieutenant governor. Herbster has always thrown his money around to buy political influence and favor. Nebraskans know what they want in a governor, and it is not backroom politics.” 

Foley said, “The Pillen campaign and other campaigns have reached out to me and that’s fine. I’m flattered by that. And we’ve had conversations with other candidates and I’ve just decided Charles Herbster is the best choice and anything beyond that would be a mischaracterization of that arrangement.” 

Herbster and Pillen recently clashed on Pillen’s record as a regent. Herbster said, “Because of his liberal ideology and weak leadership, Pillen is the reason the university is indoctrinating our students. … Jim Pillen’s lack of action and courage on critical race theory when Nebraska students needed him the most is shocking.”

Pillen’s campaign manager Kenny Zoeller said, “Jim Pillen was the first elected regent in America to take a stand against critical race theory. … Jim has been a nationally recognized leader in the fight against CRT in higher education and in our schools.”

Nine candidates are running in the May 10 primary. 

Ricketts and Foley also endorsed different candidates in the Republican primary for Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District: Ricketts is backing Mike Flood, while Foley supports incumbent Jeff Fortenberry.  

Primary date updates: Maryland court postpones primary date, Ohio state legislative primary date may change

On March 15, the Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the state’s primary from June 28 to July 19. The court also extended the candidate filing deadline from March 22 to April 15. This is the second time the court has extended the filing deadline, which was initially set for Feb. 22. 

The court’s decision follows a series of petitions challenging the legislative district boundaries the General Assembly approved in January. Special Magistrate Alan Wilner scheduled a hearing for March 23 through March 25—after the former March 22 filing deadline. The order said Wilner intends to file a report with the court on April 5. 

On March 23, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose ordered county boards of election to remove state legislative races from the May 3 primary ballot. The order came a week after the Ohio Supreme Court ruled in a 4-3 decision that the state legislative maps did not meet the state constitution’s anti-gerrymandering requirements. 

This is the third set of legislative maps the court struck down. The court ordered the Ohio Redistricting Commission to draw new legislative maps by March 28.

According to Statehouse News Bureau, a panel of three federal judges will review a lawsuit a group of Republican voters filed: “The plaintiffs want the federal court to order the state to carry out the May 3 primary using those maps adopted by the commission on February 24,” which the state supreme court most recently rejected. Hearings are scheduled for March 25 and March 30.

LaRose estimated that state legislative races could be added back to the May 3 primary ballot if the court rules in favor of plaintiffs by March 31. Otherwise, a new date will be set for state legislative primaries.
The U.S. Department of Justice announced on March 18 it would allow the state to send overseas and military voters ballots by April 5 instead of March 18.