Vice President Kamala Harris (D) cast her 29th tie-breaking vote in the Senate on March 1, breaking a 48-48 tie to approve Margaret R. Guzman to be United States District Judge for the District of Massachusetts. Harris is now tied with John Adams (1789-1797) for the second-most tie-breaking votes cast by a vice president in United States history.
Harris has cast 23 votes related to confirming judges and administration officials, and six votes related to the American Rescue Plan Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. Both of these bills were passed through the reconciliation process during the 117th Congress, and subsequently signed into law by President Joe Biden (D).
John C. Calhoun cast 31 tie-breaking votes during his tenure from 1825 to 1832, the most of all vice presidents. After Adams and Harris, George M. Dallas cast the next most (19) from 1845 to 1849.
Harris has cast the most tie-breaking votes of any vice president since 1981. Mike Pence (R), Harris’ predecessor, cast 13 tie-breaking votes.
As of March 1, 2023, all 37 vice presidents have cast 296 tie-breaking votes. Adams cast the first tie-breaking vote ever on July 18, 1789.
Five candidates are running in the Republican primary for United States Senate in Arizona on August 2, 2022. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D) is running for re-election.
Mark Brnovich, Jim Lamon, and Blake Masters have led in polling, fundraising, and media attention.
Brnovich, a career prosecutor, has served as Arizona’s attorney general since 2015. Before that, Brnovich served as an assistant attorney general from 1998 to 2003 and as the director of Arizona’s Department of Gaming from 2009 to 2013. Brnovich has highlighted the legal challenges his office has brought against President Joe Biden’s (D) tax and immigration policies, among others. TV show host Sean Hannity and radio host Mark Levin endorsed Brnovich.
Lamon is a businessman who founded DEPCOM Power, a solar energy company he sold in 2021. Lamon has largely self-funded his senate effort. According to Open Secrets, Lamon had contributed $13M to his campaign as of July 3, 2022, or 94% of all funds donated. Lamon has cited U.S.-China trade relations as a top issue, saying, “Communist China is the biggest threat to our economic security and national sovereignty.” The Conservative Political Action Coalition, the National Border Patrol Council, and a number of state legislators endorsed Lamon.
Masters is a tech entrepreneur who co-authored Zero to One: Notes on a Startup, a business book based on a class tech investor Peter Thiel taught at Stanford. Masters joined Thiel Capital in 2014 and was named president of the Thiel foundation in 2015. Masters has expressed support for increased regulation of technology companies and privatizing social security. Thiel, former President Donald Trump (R), and TV show host Tucker Carlson endorsed Masters.
All three candidates have cited border security as a top issue. Brnovich highlighted his record as attorney general, saying he challenged border measures implemented by the Biden administration, such as the 100-day pause on deportations. Masters said he would increase the size of the border patrol and use hi-tech surveillance at the border. Lamon said he would end sanctuary cities and called the border a “breeding ground for trafficking of illegal drugs, sex trafficking (including children), and even some known terrorists.” All three candidates said they supported finishing the construction of a border wall.
Brnovich and Lamon have criticized Masters for his relationship with Thiel. Brnovich said, “I know that the answer to Big Tech is not having someone that’s financed by Big Tech and made all their money in Big Tech.” Masters responded that his understanding of tech companies allows him to better confront them. “I know how it works,” Masters said.
In June, Saving Arizona PAC, a political action committee affiliated with Thiel, released an ad criticizing Lamon’s solar company for importing supplies from China and said the company was “associated with forced slave labor.” Lamon said everyone in the energy industry uses Chinese parts and added, “This ad paid for by Blake Masters’ big tech super PAC is ridiculous and comically hypocritical given Masters’ extremely recent and proactive business dealings with China.”
The 2020 presidential election has been a top issue in the race as well. Trump has criticized Brnovich, saying he hasn’t done enough as Arizona’s attorney general to investigate fraud in the election. Brnovich, who opened an ongoing civil investigation into the 2020 results in Arizona, said, “I understand [Trump’s] frustration, but as I’ve said previously, I will continue to follow the facts and evidence and do what the law requires.”
Masters said he believes Trump won the election. Lamon, who signed his name on a list of alternate Arizona presidential electors ahead of the 2021 Electoral College vote count, said he wouldn’t have voted to certify the election.
Three election forecasters rate the race a Toss-up, meaning the general election is expected to be competitive. The previous two Senate elections—held in 2018 and 2020—were both decided by 2.4 percentage points. In 2020, Kelly defeated incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R) in a special election, 51.2% to 48.8%. In 2018, Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated McSally, 50.0% to 47.6%.
Michael McGuire and Justin Olson are also running in the primary.
Joe O’Dea defeated Ron Hanks in the Republican Party primary for U.S. Senate in Colorado on June 28. O’Dea received 55.5% of the vote to Hanks’ 44.5%.
Leading up to the primary, Hanks and O’Dea led in media attention, and O’Dea maintained a lead in fundraising. According to the most recent Federal Election Commission data available, O’Dea had raised over $2.3 million and Hanks had raised $124,840 as of June 8.
O’Dea is the CEO of a Denver-based heavy civil contracting company and owner of the Mile High Station and Ironworks event centers. O’Dea said he ran for Senate “[t]o break the cycle of partisanship. To rebuild this country. To get it moving forward again. Colorado deserves a Senator who represents our voice.”
Hanks is a member of the Colorado House of Representatives representing District 60 since his election in 2020. A U.S. Air Force veteran, Hanks also worked as a linguist, a counterdrug officer, and a counterintelligence agent. Hanks said he was “the only proven conservative state legislator running” and “is adamantly pro-life and an ardent and active supporter of our second amendment.”
Key issues in the race included abortion and the 2020 election. Hanks said all abortions should be banned, and he “believe[s] life starts at conception. There should not be any exceptions.” The primary will “come down to that issue first and foremost. Are we a pro-life party, or aren’t we? I will tell you, I am pro-life, and my opponent is not. End of story,” Hanks said.
O’Dea said he didn’t support overturning Roe v. Wade or total bans on abortions: “I don’t support a total ban. The country is not 100% pro-life. The country is not 100% pro-choice.” O’Dea said he “would vote for a bill that protects a woman’s right to choose early in the pregnancy. I would also protect that right in cases of rape, incest and medical necessities.”
On the 2020 election, Hanks said he believed former Pres. Donald Trump (R) won. Hanks said election security became a priority for him after 2020: “Just like the changes we felt after 9/11, my mission as a state representative shifted to election integrity. I have been fighting for it ever since.” O’Dea said he did not believe the election was stolen and that Republicans should “stay to the issues” in their campaigns. “I’ve been very clear about my stance. Biden’s our president. He’s lousy,” O’Dea said.
Incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D) was first elected in 2008, and in the 2016 election, won re-election with 50% of the vote. In the state’s 2020 U.S. Senate election, John Hickenlooper (D) defeated incumbent Cory Gardner (R) 54% to 44%, and Joe Biden won the state in the 2020 presidential election by 13 percentage points. In its June 14 ratings, The Cook Political Report rated the general election as Likely Democratic.
Four candidates are running in the Democratic primary for the open-seat U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania on May 17. Sen. Pat Toomey (R)—who was first elected to the Senate in 2010—announced on Oct. 5, 2020, that he would not run for re-election. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb have received the most campaign contributions and media attention. State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta and Alexandria Khalil are also running.
Toomey’s seat is one of two U.S. Senate seats up for election held by a Republican in a state that President Joe Biden (D) carried in the 2020 presidential election. Pennsylvania is also one of six states represented by one Democratic and one Republican U.S. Senator. Christopher Wilson of Yahoo News wrote that the race for Toomey’s seat “might be the Democratic Party’s best chance to gain a Senate seat in the fall.”
Fetterman served as the mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania, from 2005 to 2019 and was elected lieutenant governor in 2018. He finished third in the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania for the U.S. Senate in 2016. Fetterman’s top campaign priorities are adopting a single-payer healthcare system, legalizing marijuana, and supporting LGBTQIA+ rights. His campaign website describes him as “a different kind of Democrat,” saying, “John doesn’t look like a typical politician, and more importantly, he doesn’t act like one.” Marc Levy of the Associated Press described Fetterman as “irreverent, blunt and, well, something to see. At 6 feet 8, he is tattooed and goateed, his head is clean shaven, and he is most often seen wearing shorts — even in winter — and casual work shirts.”
Lamb worked as an assistant U.S. attorney and was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives by defeating Rick Saccone (R), 49.9% to 49.5%, in a March 2018 special election. He was re-elected in 2018 and 2020. Lamb identified his top legislative priorities on his campaign website as “protecting and expanding Medicare and Social Security, raising the minimum wage to $15, cutting prescription drug prices, creating and protecting jobs and strengthening unions.” Lamb described himself as practical and says h will work with both parties to get things done. He told City & State Pennsylvania, “I’m someone that has worked with Republicans when it’s necessary to, say, get an infrastructure bill passed and work with extremely progressive Democrats to try to get Build Back Better passed and include priorities that I really care about, like improving the Medicare program.”
Fetterman was endorsed by affiliates of the United Steelworkers and the United Food and Commercial Workers unions, the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, and the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws PAC. Lamb was endorsed by The Philadelphia Democratic Party, local chapters of the Communications Workers of America and International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, and Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney (D).
According to campaign finance reports through March 31, Fetterman has raised $15.1 million and spent $10.9 million on the race. Lamb has raised $5.7 million and spent $4.4 million.
Fourteen candidates are running in the Republican primary on May 17, 2022, for U.S. Senate in North Carolina. Incumbent Richard Burr (R) is not running for re-election. The candidates that have performed best in recent polling and have received the most media attention are Ted Budd, Pat McCrory, and Mark Walker.
The primary is one of the first U.S. Senate races in 2022 to include a candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump (R). Intelligencer’s Ed Kilgore wrote, “[North Carolina is] a particularly big deal for Trump, whose midterm strategy is to show his clout in both primary and general-election races.”
Budd, the owner of a gun range and store in Rural Hall, has represented North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District since 2017. Trump endorsed Budd in June 2021, and Budd has made his support of Trump and his record a key focus of his campaign. Budd’s website says, “Ted was elected to Congress along with President Donald Trump in 2016 and has established a strong, conservative record supporting efforts to secure our borders and stand up for America First policies.”
McCrory served as governor of North Carolina from 2013 to 2017 and as mayor of Charlotte from 1995 to 2009. He has focused on economic issues and has highlighted his record as governor throughout the campaign. His website says that, as governor, McCrory “turned around North Carolina’s economy from the fourth highest unemployment rate in the country to one of the highest for job growth.”
Walker represented North Carolina’s 6th Congressional District from 2015 to 2021 and served as a pastor for sixteen years before that. He has described himself as a conservative warrior and as a bridge-builder. He said, “[O]ut of 1,000 elected Republicans in North Carolina, I’m the only one to speak or give a commencement address at one of our state’s HBCU’s, and I’m the only Republican in all of Congress to win the United Negro College President’s Award.”
McCrory and Walker have criticized Budd for not participating in some public events, including a debate on February 26. Jordan Shaw, a strategist for McCrory, said, “US Senators don’t get to hide from the voters, run from the media, avoid debates, and refuse to answer tough questions.” Walker said, “[Budd] does not want to have to be on the same stage with me because it creates a contrast.” McCrory has also criticized Budd for comments he made about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has compared Budd to U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R), calling them both “[an] embarrassment, to the state, to our party and to Congress.”
Budd’s campaign has described McCrory as a career politician and has criticized him for his electoral record. A website sponsored by Budd’s campaign says, “The sad reality is that Pat McCrory lost his last 2 out of 3 statewide bids this century.” Budd’s campaign has also criticized McCrory for what they described as “[McCrory’s] sad record of bashing President Trump.”
U.S. Reps. Jim Jordan (R) and Elise Stefanik (R), radio host Mark Levin, and the Club for Growth have endorsed Budd. Rep. Cawthorn, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R), and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R) have endorsed Walker.
As of April 2022, three independent election forecasters considered the general election as “Lean” or “Likely Republican.”
Also running in the primary are Jennifer Banwart, Lee Brian, Leonard Bryant, Drew Bulecza, Marjorie K. Eastman, David Flaherty, Benjamin Griffiths, Kenneth Harper Jr., Charles Moss, Lichia Sibhatu and Debora Tshiovo.
Control of both chambers of Congress is at stake in the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic and Republican caucuses currently split the Senate 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris (D) casting tie-breaking votes. Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election next year. Republicans currently hold 20 of those and Democrats, 14.
Senate races in eight states are rated Battlegrounds by Inside Elections and as Toss-ups, Lean, or Likely Democratic or Republican races by Cook Political Report and/or Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The table below shows information about each of these states that suggests competitive elections.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the only two states where the Senate seat up for election is held by an incumbent of a different party than the state’s 2020 presidential winner. Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) 50.0%-48.8% in Pennsylvania and 49.5%-48.8% in Wisconsin. Democrats aren’t defending any seats in states Trump won last year.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also the only two battleground states with one senator from each major party. Seats up for election from states with split delegations that are not currently considered battlegrounds are Ohio and Vermont (Sen. Bernie Sanders is an independent and caucuses with the Democratic Party, as does Vermont’s other senator, Democrat Patrick Leahy).
North Carolina and Pennsylvania are the two battleground states with retiring incumbents. Other states with open seats next year include Ohio, Alabama, and Missouri. Senators in South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin have not announced whether they will seek re-election.
Arizona’s and Georgia’s Senate seats changed party hands in special elections in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Democrats Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia defeated Republican incumbents. In New Hampshire’s 2016 election, Democrat Maggie Hassan defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R).
Part of what suggests competitive races in Florida and Nevada are close 2018 Senate election results and close recent presidential election results in those states.
Margaret Strickland was nominated to the District of New Mexico on April 19 to replace Judge Robert Brack, who assumed senior status on July 25, 2018. Strickland was rated as Well Qualified by a majority and Qualified by a minorityby the American Bar Association. Strickland will join the court upon receiving her judicial commission and taking her judicial oath.
To date, 13 of Biden’s appointees have been confirmed. For historical comparison since 1981, the following list shows the date by which the past six presidents had 13 Article III judicial nominees confirmed by the Senate:
Currently, nine Article III nominees are awaiting a confirmation vote from the U.S Senate, seven nominees are awaiting a Senate Judiciary Committee vote to advance their nominations to the full Senate, and 12 nominees are awaiting a hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Veronica Rossman was nominated to the 10th Circuit on May 12 to replace Judge Carlos Lucero, who assumed senior status on Feb. 1. Rossman was rated as Qualified by a substantial majority and Well Qualified by a minorityby the American Bar Association. Rossman will join the court upon receiving her judicial commission and taking her judicial oath.
To date, 12 of Biden’s appointees have been confirmed. For historical comparison since 1981, the following list shows the date by which the past six presidents had 12 Article III judicial nominees confirmed by the Senate:
Currently, 10 Article III nominees are awaiting a confirmation vote from the U.S Senate, seven nominees are awaiting a Senate Judiciary Committee vote to advance their nominations to the full Senate, and 12 nominees are awaiting a hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
U.S. Representatives Conor Lamb (D-Penn.) and Billy Long (R-Mo.) both announced last week that they would run for the U.S. Senate in 2022. Lamb will run for the seat currently held by Sen. Pat Toomey (R). Long will run for the seat currently held by Sen. Roy Blunt (R). Toomey and Blunt are both retiring.
Lamb was first elected in a special election in 2018 and was last re-elected with 51% of the vote to Republican challenger Sean Parnell’s 49%. Long was first elected to the House in 2010 and most recently won re-election with 69% of the vote to Democratic challenger Teresa Montseny’s 27%.
Long and Lamb are the fourteenth and fifteenth members of the House to announce that they will not run for re-election next year. The 15 members of the House who are not running include eight Republicans and seven Democrats. Five members of the U.S. Senate, all Republicans, have announced they will not run for re-election.
Thirty-six members of the U.S. House did not run for re-election in 2020—26 Republicans, nine Democrats, and one Libertarian. In 2018, 52 members of the U.S. House did not run for re-election, including 34 Republicans and 18 Democrats.
All 435 U.S. House seats will be up for election next year. Democrats currently have a 220-212 majority with three vacant seats.
Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election on November 8, 2022. Republicans currently hold 20 and Democrats hold 14.
For seats up for election next year, we look at party differences between the current Senate incumbent and their state’s other senator, their state’s governor, and their state’s 2020 presidential winner.
Split Senate delegations
Seven states have senators from different parties in the 117th Senate: Maine, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. This is the fewest number of states with split Senate delegations in history, according to Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota.
Four of the seven states with split delegations in 2021 have Senate seats up for election in 2022. Vermont has one Democratic senator and one independent senator who caucuses with Democrats, so three states with seats up for election have senators in different caucuses: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In all three, the seats up for election in 2022 are currently held by Republicans.
Senator’s vs. governor’s party
Eleven seats up for election are currently held by a senator of a different party than the state’s governor. Six seats held by Republican senators in states with Democratic governors are up. Five seats held by Democratic senators in states with Republican governors are up.
States won by presidential candidate of a different party
Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden won: Pennsylvania (held by Sen. Pat Toomey) and Wisconsin (held by Sen. Ron Johnson).
• In Pennsylvania, Biden defeated Trump (R) 50.0%-48.8%.
• In Wisconsin, Biden defeated Trump 49.5%-48.8%.
For additional information on the 2022 Senate elections, including outside race ratings and a full list of seats up for election, click below.
