Category2022 elections

Previewing U.S. House general elections

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In 2022 elections, Federal
July 11, 2022 at 11:37 AM

Elections to the United States House of Representatives will take place on November 8, 2022. The seats of all 435 representatives are up for election this year, along with the seats of five of the six non-voting members of the U.S. House.

Democrats maintained their majority in the in the 2020 elections, winning 222 seats to Republicans’ 213. As of July 6, Democrats hold a 220-210 majority with five vacant seats. Republicans need to gain a net of eight seats to win a majority in the chamber.

There are 53 open U.S. House seats in states where the filing deadline has passed. 

Forty-nine representatives—31 Democrats and 18 Republicans—are not seeking re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early). Thirty-six members did not seek re-election in 2020. 

The total number of incumbents not running for re-election is the second-highest this decade. The highest was in 2018, when 52 incumbents didn’t seek re-election. The number of Democratic incumbents not running for re-election this year is a decade-high. 

Of the members not seeking re-election: 

  • Thirty-two—22 Democrats and 10 Republicans—are retiring from public office.
  • Nine—four Democrats and five Republicans—are running for the U.S. Senate.
  • Four—three Democrats and one Republican—are running for governor. 
  • Four—two Democrats and two Republicans—are running for another office.

As of July 6, 2022, 37 districts are rated as Toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Democrats hold 27 of those seats, Republicans hold eight, and two seats are vacant.

The 2022 election will be the first to take place following apportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost one seat each. Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats.

The newly-created seats are:

  • Colorado’s 8th Congressional District
  • Florida’s 28th Congressional District
  • Montana’s 2nd Congressional District
  • Oregon’s 6th Congressional District
  • Texas’ 37th Congressional District
  • Texas’ 38th Congressional District

As a result of redistricting, there are eight districts where two incumbents filed to run against each other. In six of those, two incumbents from the same party filed to run against each other in their party primary: 

  • West Virginia’s 2nd District — Rep. David McKinley (R), the incumbent in the 1st district, and Rep. Alex Mooney (R), the incumbent in the 2nd district, ran in the Republican primary on May 10, 2022. Mooney defeated McKinley. 
  • Georgia’s 7th District — Rep. Lucy McBath (D), the incumbent in the 6th district, and Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D), the incumbent in the 7th, ran in the Democratic primary on May 24. McBath defeated Bourdeaux. 
  • Illinois’ 6th District — Rep. Marie Newman (D), the incumbent in the 3rd district, and Rep. Sean Casten (D), the incumbent in the 6th, ran in the Democratic primary on June 28. Casten defeated Newman. 
  • Illinois’ 15th District — Rep. Rodney Davis (R), the incumbent in the 13th district, and Rep. Mary Miller (R), the incumbent in the 15th, ran in the Republican primary on June 28. Miller defeated Davis. 
  • Michigan’s 11th District — Rep. Andy Levin (D), the incumbent in the 9th district, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D), the incumbent in the 11th, are running in the Democratic primary set to take place on August 2. 
  • New York’s 12th District — Rep. Jerry Nadler, the incumbent in the 10th district, and Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D), the incumbent in the 12th, are running in the Democratic primary set to take place on August 23.

In the other two districts, incumbents from different parties are running against each other in the general election in November: 

  • Florida’s 2nd District — Rep. Al Lawson (D), the incumbent in the 5th district, and Rep. Neal Dunn (R), the incumbent in the 2nd, are both running.
  • Texas’ 34th District — Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D), the incumbent in the 15th district, and Rep. Mayra Flores (R), the incumbent in the 34th, are running against each other in the general election. Flores won a special election to replace Rep. Filemon Vela (D) on June 14 and was sworn in on June 21.

Nine incumbents  — three Democrats and six Republicans  — have lost in primaries so far this year: 

  • Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) — Georgia’s 7th
  • Marie Newman (D)  — Illinois’ 6th
  • Rodney Davis (R) — Illinois’ 15th
  • Steven Palazzo (R) — Mississippi’s 4th
  • Madison Cawthorn (R) — North Carolina’s 11th
  • Bob Gibbs (R) — Ohio’s 7th
  • Kurt Schrader (D) — Oregon’s 5th
  • Tom Rice (R) — South Carolina’s 7th
  • David McKinley (R) — West Virginia’s 2nd

The nine incumbents who have been defeated in primaries so far this year are already more than the eight incumbents who lost in primary elections in 2020.



Previewing U.S. Senate general elections

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In 2022 elections, Federal
July 11, 2022 at 11:35 AM

Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 8, 2022. Thirty-four of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections will begin six-year terms on January 3, 2023.

Two special elections are also scheduled for November 8. One special election will be held to fill the final four years of Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R-Okla.) six-year term that began in 2021. As a result, both of Oklahoma’s U.S. Senate seats will be up for election this year.

The other special election will be held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term that Vice President and former Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2016. This U.S. Senate seat is also up for regular election in 2022, meaning a total of 35 seats are up for election this year.

Following the 2020 Senate elections and the January 2021 runoffs in Georgia, control of the chamber was split evenly for the first time since 2001 and for the fourth time in U.S. history. This gave Vice President Kamala Harris a tie-breaking vote, and Democrats control of the U.S. Senate via a power-sharing agreement. 

Heading into the 2022 Senate election, the chamber is still split 50-50, with Republicans holding 50 seats, Democrats holding 48, and two independent senators caucusing with Democrats. Republicans need a net gain of one seat to win control of the chamber. 

Of the 35 seats up for election this year, Democrats hold 14 and Republicans hold 21.

Aside from Inhofe, six incumbents — one Democrat and five Republicans — are not seeking re-election in 2022. They are: 

  1. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.)
  2. Richard Burr (R-N.C.)
  3. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.)
  4. Rob Portman (R-Ohio)
  5. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)
  6. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.)

The five Republican incumbents not running for re-election are the most in a decade. In total, the six incumbents not seeking re-election this year are two more than in 2020.

Five races—three for seats held by Democrats and two for seats held by Republicans—are rated as Toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, or Sabato’s Crystal Ball. They are:

  1. Arizona, incumbent Mark Kelly (D)
  2. Georgia, incumbent Raphael Warnock (D)
  3. Nevada, incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
  4. Pennsylvania, incumbent Pat Toomey (R) (not seeking re-election)
  5. Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson (R) 

Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020.

Four of the 34 seats up for regular election this year changed party hands the last time they were up for election. 

Two of those seats, Illinois and New Hampshire, changed party hands in 2016, the last time they were up for regular election: 

  1. Illinois—Tammy Duckworth (D) defeated incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Duckworth’s margin of victory was 15.1%.
  2. New Hampshire—Maggie Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R). Hassan’s margin of victory was 0.1%.

The other two, Arizona and Georgia, changed party hands in 2020 and 2021 after special elections were held in those states:

  1. Arizona — Mark Kelly (D) defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R) in a special election in 2020. Kelly’s margin of victory was 2.4%, and he was the first Democrat to win this seat since 1962.
  2. Georgia — Raphael Warnock (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler (R) in a special election that went to a runoff in 2021. Warnock’s margin of victory was 2.1%, and he was the first Democrat to win this seat since 2000.

Eleven of the seats up for election in 2022 were won by fewer than ten percentage points the last time they were up for election. Of those, seven were won by fewer than five percentage points, four held by a Democrat, and three held by a Republican. 

Hassan’s margin of victory of 0.1% over Ayotte in New Hampshire’s 2016 Senate race was the closest, while Sen. John Hoeven’s (R-N.D.) margin of victory of 61.5% over Eliot Glassheim (D) in the 2016 North Dakota Senate race was the largest. 

In 11 states with Senate seats up for election in 2022, the seat is currently held by a senator of a different party than the governor. Six seats held by Republican senators in states with Democratic governors are up. Five seats held by Democratic senators in states with Republican governors are up.

Four states with Senate seats up for election in 2022 have senators from different parties in the 117th Congress. Vermont has one Democratic senator and one independent senator who caucuses with Democrats, so three states with seats up for election have senators in different caucuses: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

There are seven states in the 117th Congress with senators from different parties, the fewest number of states with split Senate delegations in history.



Campaign behind a ballot initiative to increase the minimum wage in Nebraska submits signatures

By Victoria Antram
In 2022 elections, Ballot measures
July 7, 2022 at 8:49 PM

On July 7, Raise the Wage Nebraska, the campaign behind a ballot initiative to increase the state’s minimum wage to $15 by 2026, submitted over 152,00 signatures to the secretary of state. Currently, the minimum wage is $9 per hour.

In Nebraska, the number of signatures required to qualify an initiated state statute for the ballot is equal to 7% of registered voters as of the deadline for filing signatures. Because of the unique signature requirement based on registered voters, Nebraska is also the only state where petition sponsors cannot know the exact number of signatures required until they are submitted. Nebraska law also features a distribution requirement mandating that petitions contain signatures from 5% of the registered voters in each of two-fifths (38) of Nebraska’s 93 counties.

As of July 1, 2022, Nebraska had 1,239,599 registered voters, which would make the signature requirement 86,772.

The initiative would incrementally increase the state’s minimum wage according to the following schedule:

  1. $10.50 on January 1, 2023;
  2. $12.00 on January 1, 2024;
  3. $13.50 on January 1, 2025; and
  4. $15.00 on January 1, 2026.

Every year after 2026, the minimum wage would be adjusted by the increase in the cost of living. 

In 2014, Nebraskans voted to increase the minimum wage incrementally to $9 by 2016. The measure was approved by 59.47% of voters.

The 2022 initiative has received support from State Senator Megan Hunt (D), Senator Terrell McKinney (D), the ACLU of Nebraska, Heartland Worker Center, NAACP Lincoln Branch, Nebraska State AFL-CIO, and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Nebraska.

Nine states have passed laws or ballot measures increasing their statewide minimum wage rates incrementally to $15 per hour. California is the first of those states to reach $15 per hour in 2022.

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Andy Levin and Haley Stevens running in incumbent-vs.-incumbent Democratic primary in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District

By Roneka Matheny
In 2022 elections, Federal
July 7, 2022 at 8:47 PM

U.S. Rep. Andy Levin and U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens are running in a Democratic primary for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District on August 2, 2022. This race is one of several incumbent-vs.-incumbent primaries occurring for the U.S. House in 2022 as a result of congressional redistricting.

Michigan lost one congressional district following the 2020 census, and when the lines were redrawn, the new 11th district included areas represented by multiple Democratic incumbents. According to data from Daily Kos, the new 11th district contains about 45% of the old 11th district, which Stevens has represented in Congress since 2019. The new 11th contains about 25% of the old 9th district, which Levin has represented in Congress since 2019.

Levin’s campaign website says of the new 11th district that Levin’s “roots in Oakland County, Michigan, go back well over 100 years” and that his father Sandy Levin (D) represented parts of the new 11th in the old 9th district from 1983 to 2019. When asked why he decided to run for election in the new 11th district instead of the new 9th, Levin says, “I’m running where I live, and I’m very happy about that decision, no regrets.”

Levin serves on the Education and Labor and Foreign Affairs committees in the 117th Congress. He is also a member of the Progressive caucus. Levin’s campaign says he has a progressive record in Congress, citing his co-sponsorship of bills to implement the Green New Deal and Medicare for All and his endorsements from Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Levin also emphasizes his background on the campaign trail, saying of his former job as a union organizer for the national AFL-CIO and SEIU, “It’s my life. I’m the union organizer in Congress.”

Stevens serves on the Education and Labor and Science, Space & Technology committees in the 117th Congress. She helped launch the Women in STEM Caucus in 2020, which says that its goal is to support and increase the number of women in science, technology, engineering and mathematics fields. Prior to her election to Congress in 2018, Stevens served as the chief of staff for the U.S. Auto Rescue Task Force under former President Barack Obama (D).

Stevens has called the incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary unfortunate, saying, “No one asked for this…In ten months, we are not going to be colleagues and that is not good. That is not good for Michigan. That’s not good for the Democratic Party. It’s not good for the country.” Stevens responded to Levin’s statements about his progressive record by criticizing his positions on abortion and Israel.

Citing her endorsements from Planned Parenthood and EMILY’s List, Stevens said she is a voice for women in Congress and unequivocally supports a woman’s right to choose. When Levin argued in a primary debate that he has taken more action on this issue in Congress, Stevens said, “Was that just the sound of another 60-something year-old white man telling me how to talk about choice? I think my position is clear.”

Stevens said she is “proud to unequivocally support the Jewish state” and criticized Levin’s comments on the treatment of Palestinians, as well as his Two State Solutions Act in Congress. Levin has described himself as “perhaps the leading Jewish member of Congress to try to actually take action to preserve the possibility of a two-state solution.” The American Israel Public Affairs Committee and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC disagree with Levin’s positions and endorsed Stevens. The Times of Israel has referred to this Democratic primary as a “bellwether of American Jewish politics,” explaining that “The new 11th District is believed to include about 40,000 of the 70,000 Jews living in the Detroit area.”



Seventeen candidates running in New York’s 10th Congressional District Democratic primary

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2022 elections, Federal
July 7, 2022 at 8:45 PM

Seventeen candidates are running in New York’s 10th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 23, 2022. Candidates receiving significant media attention are U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones, who was elected in 2020 to represent the 17th District and is running in the 10th after redistricting; former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio; prosecutor Daniel Goldman; former U.S. Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman; state Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou; New York City Council Member Carlina Rivera; and state Assemblymember Jo Anne Simon.

The New York Times wrote that the redrawn 10th District includes “some of New York’s most politically engaged and diverse neighborhoods: Greenwich Village, Wall Street, Chinatown, Park Slope, Sunset Park and even parts of Borough Park, an ultra-Orthodox Jewish stronghold.” The Times called the primary “a contest not so much of ideas — almost every major candidate has condemned threats to abortion rights and bemoaned the lack of strict limits on guns — as of brute force, blunt ambition and identity politics.”

Axios called the district “a potential venue for Democrats to expose various internal rifts as candidates fight for a simple plurality of the vote, where the winner can advance with far less than 50%.”

The 17th District Jones was elected to does not overlap with the redrawn 10th. Jones’ campaign spokesman Bill Neidhardt said that Jones “refused to primary fellow Black progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman when his residence was drawn into Bowman’s district. … He also wanted to avoid a member-on-member primary with Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney.” Maloney was elected to represent the 18th District starting in 2013 and is running in the redrawn 17th.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler, the 10th District incumbent, is running in the redrawn 12th. Twenty-eight percent of the redrawn 10th District’s population is from the old 10th.



Three candidates running in Republican primary for Kansas Attorney General

By Samuel Wonacott
In 2022 elections, State
July 7, 2022 at 8:43 PM

Kris Kobach, Tony Mattivi, and Kellie Warren are running in the August 2, 2022, Republican primary for Kansas attorney general. Incumbent Derek Schmidt (R) is running in the Republican primary for Kansas governor.

Kobach served as the Kansas secretary of state from 2011 to 2019. Kobach ran unsuccessfully for Kansas governor in 2018, losing to Laura Kelly (D) in the general election. Kobach has campaigned on creating a litigation team that would sue the Biden administration for what he describes as violating federal law. Kobach has pointed to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R) lawsuits against the federal government as a model for Kansas: “My objective is for Kansas to stand side by side with Texas so that more lawsuits can be brought and people will see that there are two states leading the charge against the Biden administration.” In addition to creating a litigation team within the attorney general’s office, Kobach has listed prosecuting voter fraud, restoring what he calls pro-life laws, removing fees on concealed carry licenses, and cracking down on scams as his top issues.

Mattivi is a retired U.S. assistant attorney who worked for the U.S. Department of Justice. Mattivi has run on his experience as a prosecutor, saying voters should choose him because “you’ll have a choice and it’s a choice between the career prosecutor or the career politician. And I hope you agree with me that our chief law enforcement official ought to be a law enforcement official.” Mattivi has said his focus as attorney general will be fighting crime: “I’m not going to sit in my office thinking about creative ways to sue the federal government because there are other things that are more important to our state like keeping us safe.” He has listed fighting government overreach, backing law enforcement, protecting the Constitution, and enforcing the law as his top issues.

Warren is a member of the Kansas Senate, a position to which she was first elected in 2020. In 2018, she was elected to the Kansas House of Representatives. Warren has said voters should choose her because of her experience in the legislature: “With me, you have the record you can depend on of a battle-tested conservative who fights and wins. I win tough elections. I win policy battles that you care about. And I win in the courtroom as well. That’s what we need in our next attorney general.” Warren has said she has a track record of defeating Democrats in elections, and has referenced Kobach’s loss to Gov. Kelly (D) in 2018 as a warning to voters: “Losing elections has consequences. We are paying a high price in Kansas for having lost in 2018. We have to make sure that doesn’t happen again.” Warren has listed defending the Constitution, protecting the Second Amendment, and limiting government overreach as top issues.

Kobach, Mattivi, and Warren have expressed support for the Kansas No State Constitutional Right to Abortion and Legislative Power to Regulate Abortion Amendment, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the ballot on August 2, 2022. The measure would amend the Kansas Constitution to state that nothing in the state constitution creates a right to abortion or requires government funding for abortion and that the state legislature has the authority to pass laws regarding abortion.

The Kansas attorney general is the chief law enforcement agency for the state. The attorney general provides legal services to state agencies and boards, protects consumers from fraud, assists the victims of crime and defends the state in civil proceedings. The attorney general is directly elected in 43 states. The attorney general is appointed by the state legislature in Maine, by the state Supreme Court in Tennessee, and by the governor in the remaining five states.



Two Massachusetts ballot initiatives filed a second round of signatures for a spot on the November ballot

By Victoria Antram
In 2022 elections, Ballot measures
July 7, 2022 at 8:40 PM

The Massachusetts Secretary of State reported on July 7 that two ballot initiatives had filed a second round of signatures on July 6. 

One initiative would incrementally change the number of retail alcohol licenses an establishment could own from no more than 12 in 2023 to no more than 18 by 2031. It would also prohibit in-store automated and self-checkout sales of alcohol. The initiative is sponsored by the Massachusetts Package Stores Association.

The other proposal would set the medical loss ratio for dental plans at 83% and require the insurer to refund the excess premium to its covered individuals and covered groups. The Committee on Dental Insurance Quality is leading the campaign in support of the initiative. Daisy Kumar, a registered nurse and founding member of the ballot question committee, said, “We do not expect dental insurance companies to waste our premiums by overpaying officers, having giant, wasteful commissions, sneaking payments to affiliates or gifts to parent companies that just add another layer of waste. Our insurance payments are not meant to be gifts to dental insurance companies. They are meant to help families like mine and yours.” The Committee to Protect Access to Quality Dental Care, which opposes the measure, said, “The proponents of this ballot question are not being straight with the voters. What they aren’t telling you is that their anti-consumer proposal will increase costs for Massachusetts families and employers… and can result in thousands of residents being denied access to much-needed dental care.”

The process for initiating state statutes in Massachusetts is indirect, which means the legislature has a chance to approve initiatives with successful petitions directly without the measure going to the voters. The first round of signatures equal to 3% of the votes cast for governor is required to put an initiative before the legislature. The second round of signatures equal to 0.5% of the votes cast for governor in the last election is required to put the measure on the ballot if the legislature rejects or declines to act on a proposed initiated statute. 

Both initiatives submitted the required 3% of signatures in December 2021 and were presented to the state legislature in early 2022. Since the state legislature did not act on the initiatives by May 4, the initiatives were cleared to gather a second round of 13,374 signatures to qualify for the November ballot.

A spokesperson for the secretary of state said it would take about a week for the signatures to be processed.

Between 2010 and 2020, an average of 29 ballot initiatives were filed for each election cycle in Massachusetts, with an average of three making the ballot. For 2022, 20 ballot initiatives were filed, including one veto referendum. 

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Halfway through the primary calendar, the number of state legislative incumbents defeated in primaries is up 65%

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections, State
July 7, 2022 at 2:51 PM

State legislative incumbents are losing to primary challengers at an increased rate this year compared to 2020.

Across the 26 states that have held primaries so far, 132 incumbents—27 Democrats and 105 Republicans—have lost. This represents a 65% increase from 2020 among these states. This increase has been driven by Republican losses, which are up 98% from 53 in 2020. For Democrats, the number defeated this year remains the same.

In total, 5.0% of incumbents running for re-election in 2022 have lost, up from defeat rates ranging from 2.4% to 3.4% since 2014.

At least one state legislative incumbent has lost a primary in 22 of the 26 states that have held primaries.

The percentage of defeated incumbents is highest in Idaho, where 18 incumbents—all Republicans—lost to challengers. That represents 24% of all incumbents who filed for re-election.

In West Virginia, with the second-highest percentage of defeated incumbents, 11 incumbents (11%)—two Democrats and nine Republicans—lost in primaries.

Between 5 and 10% of incumbents lost in 10 states and less than 5% lost in another 10. The remaining four states—California, Colorado, Maine, and Nebraska—have had no incumbent defeats.

Twenty-eight of the 132 incumbent defeats (21%) were guaranteed due to redistricting.

When states redraw legislative lines, incumbents can oftentimes end up in a new district with other incumbents leading to incumbent v. incumbent primaries or general elections. Since, in these races, there are more incumbents running than nominations or seats available, at least one incumbent must lose.

Of the 26 states that have held primaries so far, eight have Democratic trifectas, 15 have Republican trifectas, and three have divided governments with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republicans controlling both legislative chambers. Across these 26 states, there are 3,337 seats up for election, 54% of the nationwide total.

The figures for 2022 will likely increase. There are currently 11 uncalled primaries featuring incumbents—four Democratic and seven Republican—and 20 primaries featuring New York Senate incumbents scheduled for Aug. 23.



Primary watch: number of contested state legislative primaries is up 28% compared to 2020

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections, State
July 5, 2022 at 9:15 PM

There are 28% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 57% more Republican primaries and 18% more top-two/four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 8%.

These figures include elections in 32 states that account for 4,050 of the 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year (66%).

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than available nominations, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

Since our last update on June 23, we have added post-filing deadline data from Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio. Overall, eight states in this analysis have Democratic trifectas, 18 have Republican trifectas, and six have divided governments.

Of the 32 states in this analysis, 30 are holding partisan primaries. Two states—California and Nebraska—use top-two primaries.

The number of Democratic primaries has increased in 11 states, decreased in 15, and remains the same in three. The number of Republican primaries has increased in 27 states and decreased in three. The table below shows partisan statistics for the three states with the largest increases and decreases so far.

In addition to a state’s political makeup and party activity, redistricting is another reason for an increase in primary competitiveness.

After redistricting, some states—like Arkansas—hold elections for every district, while in other years, fewer districts are up each cycle. This creates more opportunities for primaries to occur. Or, like in West Virginia, redistricting creates new districts and, by extension, more primary opportunities. Currently, the total number of possible primaries affected by these changes is up 1.3% compared to 2020.

For states like New Mexico and South Carolina, where only one chamber is up for election every two years, only those chambers holding elections in 2022 that also held elections in 2020 are included.

Ballotpedia will continue to update these figures as information becomes available. In addition to this analysis, Ballotpedia collects competitiveness statistics at all levels of government, available here. This data is calculated following candidate filing deadlines and readjusted at the time of the primary to account for any changes to candidate lists.



No Kansas’ U.S. House incumbents face primary challengers for the first time since 2012

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In 2022 elections, Federal
July 5, 2022 at 9:10 PM

The filing deadline for candidates running for Congress in Kansas this year was June 1, 2022. Nine candidates are running in Kansas’ four U.S. House districts, including four Democrats and five Republicans. That’s 2.25 candidates per district, down from 4.75 in 2020 and six in 2018.

Here are some other highlights from this year’s filings:

  1. This is the first election to take place under new district lines following the 2020 census. Kansas was apportioned four districts, the same number it was apportioned after the 2010 census.
  2. The nine candidates running this year are the fewest since 2012 when nine candidates ran as well. The number is down from 2020 when 19 candidates filed to run, and 2018, when 24 candidates filed. 
  1. There are no open seats this year, down from one in both 2020 and 2018.
  2. No incumbents are facing primary challengers for the first time since 2012. That’s down from one in 2020 and three in 2018. 

  1. Republican and Democratic candidates filed to run in all four districts, so no seats are guaranteed to either party this year. 
  2. The Republican primary in the 3rd district is the only contested primary this year, a decade-low. That’s down from five contested primaries in 2020 and six in 2018.

Kansas and four other states — Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington — are holding primary elections on August 2, 2022. In Kansas, the winner of a primary election is the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes cast for that office, even if he or she does not win an outright majority of votes.