Category: 2024 elections
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2.6% of state legislative incumbents who filed for re-election have lost in primaries
So far this year, 12 state legislative incumbents — one Democrat and 11 Republicans — have lost to primary challengers. Across the four states that have held primaries, 2.6% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, which is less than at this point in 2022 (3.6%). These totals include data from elections in both legislative…
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Donald Trump leads PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market
As of March 12, 2024, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market shows former President Donald Trump (R) leading at $0.47 followed by President Joe Biden (D) at $0.45. Trump has held the lead in this market since Feb. 9. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and…
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Florida legislature sends constitutional amendment to repeal public campaign financing to Nov. 2024 ballot
The Florida State Legislature referred a constitutional amendment to the Nov. ballot that would repeal Section 7 of Article VI of the Florida Constitution, which provides for public campaign financing for candidates who agree to spending limits. The amendment was sponsored by state Sen. Travis Hutson (R-7). Florida enacted a public campaign financing law in…
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Ten candidates are running in West Virginia’s U.S. House primaries—the fewest this decade
This year’s filing deadline for candidates running for Congress in West Virginia was Jan. 27, 2024. Ten candidates are running for West Virginia’s two U.S. House districts, including three Democrats and seven Republicans. That’s five candidates per district, lower than the 6.5 candidates who ran in 2022 but higher than the 4.7 candidates who ran…
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Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey advance from 31-candidate top-two primary for U.S. Senate in California
Adam Schiff (D) and Steve Garvey (R) advanced from the 31-candidate March 5 top-two primary for U.S. Senate in California. As of March 6, Schiff received 33.2% of the vote and Garvey received 32.5%. Incumbent Laphonza Butler (D) announced she would not run for re-election on October 19, 2023. Governor Gavin Newsom (D) appointed Butler…
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Incumbent Jesus Garcia and Raymond Lopez are running in the Democratic primary for Illinois’ 4th Congressional District
Incumbent Jesus Garcia (D) and Raymond Lopez (D) are running in the Democratic primary for Illinois’ 4th Congressional District on March 19, 2024. Local media outlets say Garcia and Lopez represent different wings of the Democratic Party. According to Politico’s Illinois Playbook, “Lopez is a conservative Democrat who aligns with the equally conservative Chicago Police union,…
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Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels advance to a primary runoff in the Democratic primary election for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District
On March 5, Shomari Figures (D) and Anthony Daniels (D) advanced to a primary runoff in the Democratic primary election for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District. In Alabama, if no candidate receives a majority of votes, the top-two vote getters advance to a primary runoff. As of March 6, Figures received 43.5% of the vote and…
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Colin Allred defeats eight other candidates in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Texas
Colin Allred (D) defeated eight other candidates in the Democratic primary election for U.S. Senate in Texas on March 5. As of March 6, Allred received 59.2% of the vote. Roland Gutierrez (D) finished second with 17%. Three candidates led in fundraising, polling, and endorsements: Allred, Gutierrez, and Carl Sherman Sr. (D). Each of the…
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Joe Biden ends February with 41% job approval
At the end of February, approval polling averages showed President Joe Biden (D) at 41% approval. Fifty-five percent of voters disapproved of his performance. This was the same as the approval rating he received at the end of January. Throughout February, Biden’s approval rating ranged from 40% to 41%. The lowest approval rating he’s received…
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Decade low number of incumbents in contested state legislative primaries in North Carolina
Nineteen North Carolina state legislative incumbents face primary challenges, representing 13% of all incumbents running for re-election. This is a decade low number and percentage of contested incumbents in North Carolina. Of the 19 incumbents in contested primaries, eight are Democrats and 11 are Republicans. North Carolina has 43 contested state legislative primaries this year,…