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Here’s how 2024’s presidential election timeline compares to 2020 and 2016

The 2024 Republican presidential primary may be about to gain its second noteworthy candidate, according to The Post and Courier. The paper reported that former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) plans to announce her campaign on February 15. She’d be joining former President Donald Trump (R), who announced his campaign in November.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden (D) has not yet announced whether he intends to run for a second term.

By February 1, 2019, the equivalent point in the 2020 campaign, ten noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns: nine Democrats and one Republican, Trump. They were:

  • February 1, 2019: Cory Booker (D)
  • January 28, 2019: Marianne Williamson (D)
  • January 23, 2019: Pete Buttigieg (D)
  • January 21, 2019: Kamala Harris (D)
  • January 15, 2019: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
  • January 12, 2019: Julián Castro (D)
  • January 11, 2019: Tulsi Gabbard (D)
  • November 6, 2017: Andrew Yang (D)
  • August 10, 2017: John Delaney (D)
  • January 20, 2017: Donald Trump (R)

Additionally on February 1, 2019, Politico reported that Kamala Harris (D), Biden, and Booker were courting the Congressional Black Caucus for an endorsement. Trump also filed his first campaign finance report of 2019, showing he had $19.3 million in his campaign account.

At this point in the 2016 cycle, no noteworthy candidates had announced campaigns for the presidency yet. The race was still getting media coverage though, including an interview with Mike Pence (R) published by Indianapolis Monthly on February 1, 2015, where the outlet asked him whether he’d enter the race. Pence never did enter as a presidential candidate, but he became Trump’s running mate in July 2016.



Biden regains lead in PredictIt’s 2024 presidential betting market

As of January 31, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.34, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.30, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.23. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.53. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10: California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is at $0.16, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) is at $0.10.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.38, followed by Trump at $0.35. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



President Joe Biden ends January with a 43% approval rating, same as last month

At the end of January, approval polling averages showed President Joe Biden (D) at 43% approval. Fifty-two percent of voters disapproved of his performance. 

He held a 44% approval rating at the start of 2022. Throughout January, Biden’s approval rating has remained at either 43% or 44%. The lowest approval rating he’s received is 38%, last seen on July 27, 2022. The highest approval rating Biden has received is 55%, last seen on May 26, 2021.

After the first month of the 118th Congress, congressional approval was at 27% and disapproval was at 58%. The highest approval rating the 117th Congress received was 36%, last seen on July 16, 2021, and the lowest approval rating it received was 14%, last seen on January 26, 2022.

At this time during the Trump administration, presidential approval was two points lower at 41%, and congressional approval was nine points lower at 18%.

Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over the last thirty days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.



DeSantis leads PredictIt’s 2024 general presidential election market

As of January 23, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) leading at $0.31, followed by President Joe Biden (D) at $0.29, former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.21, and California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.12. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.52. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10: California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is at $0.20, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) is at $0.11.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.38, followed by Trump at $0.32. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



2024 presidential candidate filings currently at third-highest level in forty years

Photo of the White House in Washington, D.C.

Five hundred and thirty-one people have filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president in 2024 as of January 17. The list includes 77 Democratic candidates (14.5%), 145 Republican candidates (27.3%), and 309 nonpartisan or minor party candidates (58.2%). This figure excludes candidates whose filings have expired or who we identified as fake candidates.

Any person running for president that raises or spends more than $5,000 for a campaign must file a Statement of Candidacy with the FEC within 15 days. To do so, that person must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for at least 14 years. A Statement of Candidacy includes basic information like the candidate’s name and address and any campaign committees working for them.

The number of filings in the 2024 election is the third most in forty years. In 2016, 1,762 candidates filed with the FEC to run for president. In 2020, 1,212 candidates filed. 

The 1984 presidential election had the highest proportion of Democratic candidates since 1980—40.1%. The major party candidates running that year were incumbent Ronald Reagan (R) and Walter Mondale (D). The 2012 election, had the highest proportion of Republican candidates in that time—29.0%. The major party candidates that year were incumbent Barack Obama (D) and Mitt Romney (R). The highest proportion of nonpartisan or minor party candidates filed in 2016 (70.4%), which featured Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R).

The current proportion of 2024 candidates—14.5% Democratic, 27.3% Republican, and 58.2% nonpartisan or minor party candidates—most closely resemble the averages seen in presidential elections with a Democratic incumbent. President Joe Biden (D) has not announced a re-election campaign, but he is eligible to run for a second term in 2024.



PredictIt markets show Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis at even odds in the 2024 presidential election

Photo of the White House in Washington, D.C.

As of January 17, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows incumbent Joe Biden (D) tied with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.31. At this time last week, Biden led DeSantis by $0.03. Former President Donald Trump’s (R) share price has risen over the last week, going from $0.16 to $0.20. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.54, down 10 cents from this time last week. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10: California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is at $0.18, and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) is at $0.10.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.39, followed by Trump at $0.34. At this time last week, DeSantis led by $0.44 to Trump’s $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



Biden currently leads PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market

As of January 9, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows incumbent Joe Biden (D) holding a lead at $0.34, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.31, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.16. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.64. The only other candidate to have more than a $0.10 share price is California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.13.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.44, followed by Trump at $0.28. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



President Joe Biden (D) holds narrow lead in PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market

As of January 3, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows incumbent Joe Biden (D) holding a narrow lead at $0.33, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.32, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.16. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading the pack at $0.61. The only other candidates to have more than a $0.10 share price are California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.12 and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) at $0.11.

DeSantis currently leads in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.44, followed by Trump at $0.26. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading on February 15, 2023.



President Joe Biden ends 2022 with a 43% approval rating, the second-highest rating he received in 2022

At the end of 2022, polling averages showed 43% of voters approved of President Joe Biden’s (D) performance. Fifty-three percent of voters disapproved of his performance. 

Biden’s highest approval rating in 2022 was 44%, last seen on November 2, and the lowest was 38%, last seen on July 27. This is also the lowest approval rating of Biden’s presidency. The highest approval rating Biden has received during his presidency is 55%, last seen on May 26, 2021.

Congress was at 28% approval and 62% disapproval at the end of December. This was Congress’ highest approval rating of 2022, with its lowest being 14%, last seen on January 26. This was also the lowest approval rating of the 117th Congress. The highest approval rating Congress has received during the Biden presidency is 36%, last seen on July 16, 2021.

At the end of 2018 during the Trump administration, presidential approval was the same at 43%, and congressional approval was nine points lower at 19%.

Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over the last thirty days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.



Here’s how the timeline of presidential campaign announcements played out in 2020 and 2016

Former President Donald Trump (R) declared his candidacy for president in the 2024 election in November. Incumbent President Joe Biden (D) has said he plans to make his intentions about running for re-election public after the holidays. As 2023 begins, here’s a look at when presidential candidates declared their candidacies in 2020 and 2016.

In the 2020 cycle, Trump was also the first noteworthy candidate to declare, filing for re-election the day of his inauguration in 2017. Michael Bloomberg (D), the final noteworthy candidate to declare, launched his campaign on November 24, 2019. January and April 2019 tied for the months with the most noteworthy candidate declarations, both at 6.

Biden, the winner of the 2020 presidential election, declared on April 25, 2019, making him the 23rd noteworthy candidate to do so.

We defined noteworthy candidates as individuals who met one or more of the following criteria: previously held office as a member of Congress, governor, state executive, state legislator, or mayor of a city with a population of 100,000 or more, met a polling or fundraising threshold for inclusion in debates, or was set to appear on at least 15 state ballots.

In the 2016 cycle, Ted Cruz (R) was the first noteworthy candidate to declare on March 23, 2015. The final noteworthy declaration came from Lawrence Lessig (D) on September 6, 2015. June 2015 saw the most noteworthy presidential declarations at 6, followed by May 2015 at 5.

Trump, the winner of the 2016 presidential election, declared on June 16, 2015, making him the 16th noteworthy candidate to declare. The Democratic nominee for president, Hillary Clinton (D), declared on April 12, 2015, making her the 3rd noteworthy candidate to declare.

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