Author: Douglas Kronaizl
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4.7% of state legislative incumbents who filed for re-election have lost in primaries
So far this year, 156 state legislative incumbents—39 Democrats and 117 Republicans—have lost to primary challengers. Across the 33 states that have held primaries, 4.7% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, an elevated level of incumbent losses compared to previous cycles. These totals include data from Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Washington, which…
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Tennessee has its fewest contested state legislative primaries in five election cycles
Tennessee has 36 contested state legislative primaries this year, 16% of the total number of possible primaries, and a 5% decrease from 2020. This is the fewest contested state legislative primaries in Tennessee over the past five election cycles. A primary is contested when more candidates file to run than there are nominations available, meaning…
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Newcomers will represent at least 31% of Minnesota’s state legislative districts next year
Sixty-three state legislative districts up for election in Minnesota this year are open, meaning no incumbents filed to run. This represents 31% of the state’s legislature, a marked increase compared to recent election cycles. Since no incumbents are present, all open districts are guaranteed to be won by newcomers. Fifty-nine of these districts are open…
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Newcomers will represent 16% of Connecticut’s state legislative districts next year
Thirty state legislative districts up for election in Connecticut this year are open, meaning no incumbents filed to run. This represents 16% of the state’s legislature, an increase compared to recent election cycles. Since no incumbents are present, all open districts are guaranteed to be won by newcomers. Across all districts, there are nine contested…
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Primary watch: number of contested state legislative primaries is up 25% compared to 2020
There are 25% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 55% more Republican primaries and 8% more top-two/four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 9%. These figures include elections in 37 states that account for 4,672 of 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year (76%). A primary is contested when…
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33% of Washington state legislative incumbents face contested top-two primaries
Thirty-one of the 95 Washington state legislators who filed for re-election—22 Democrats and nine Republicans—will face contested primaries on Aug. 2. This represents 33% of incumbents who filed for re-election, lower than in 2020 but a higher rate than other recent election cycles. Washington is one of three states holding top-two state legislative primaries this…
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A look at Missouri’s upcoming state legislative primaries and beyond
Thirty-five of the 132 Missouri state legislators who filed for re-election—13 Democrats and 22 Republicans—will face challengers in the upcoming Aug. 2 primaries, the largest number since at least 2014. More incumbent Missouri legislators are facing challengers in the upcoming Aug. 2 primaries than at any point since at least 2014. Thirty-five incumbents running for…