As of May 30, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
Trump’s polling average currently stands at 53%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 22%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.59, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.33. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election took place today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.
President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 35% polling average, with no other candidates polling at or above 10%, and a $0.76 PredictIt share price. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.11.
Biden, DeSantis, and Trump are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.
Two new noteworthy candidates announced 2024 presidential campaigns in the past week. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) announced on May 22, 2023, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced on May 24. There are now three noteworthy Democrats and eight noteworthy Republicans running for president.
Below is a summary of each candidate’s campaign activity from May 19 to May 26.
Joe Biden (D) spoke about firearms policy at a memorial for the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting in Washington, D.C., on May 24. That day, Biden also released an online ad criticizing DeSantis.
Asa Hutchinson (R) campaigned in South Carolina from May 22 to May 23.
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) held campaign events in Chicago, Illinois, on May 19 and Iowa on May 26. He also spoke at the Bitcoin 2023 conference on May 20.
Tim Scott (R) announced his presidential campaign on May 22 at a rally in North Charleston, South Carolina. On May 23, Scott began a $5.5 million ad campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire. Scott campaigned in Iowa on May 24 and New Hampshire on May 25.
Donald Trump (R) was endorsed by Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey (R) on May 22. Trump released an online ad on May 24 criticizing DeSantis.
We did not identify any specific campaign activity from Corey Stapleton (R) during this time frame.
At this point in the 2020 cycle, 26 noteworthy candidates were running for president. Twenty-four were seeking the Democratic nomination, and two (Trump and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld) were seeking the Republican nomination.
Notable stories at the time included eight Democratic presidential candidates appearing at demonstrations opposing anti-abortion laws in Alabama and Georgia on May 21, 2019, and reporting that said Trump had spent $5 million on Facebook ads targeting older Americans and women from January to May 2019.
In the 2016 election, eight noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns as of May 26, 2015. There were two Democrats (Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders) and five Republicans.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) signed SB 7050 into law on May 24, 2023. SB 7050 is an elections bill that includes a provision removing Florida’s resign-to-run requirement for presidential and vice presidential candidates. DeSantis also filed to run in the 2024 presidential election that day.
Under the new law, president and vice president are the only government offices explicitly exempted from Florida’s resign-to-run law. Before the passage of SB 7050, Florida’s resign-to-run law seemed to require candidates running for any government office, including president and vice president, to resign from office.
The law was amended in 2018 to say, in part, “any officer who qualifies for federal public office must resign from the office he or she presently holds if the terms, or any part thereof, run concurrently with each other.” This appeared to reverse a 2007 amendment to the law that removed the resign-to-run requirement for presidential and vice presidential candidates.
State Sen. Travis Hutson (R) introduced the resign-to-run removal amendment on April 25. The Florida State Senate voted to approve the full bill 28-12 on April 26, and the Florida House of Representatives approved the bill 76-34 on April 28.
In addition to Florida, four other states have resign-to-run laws on the books: Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, and Texas.
As of May 8, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.49, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.32, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.16. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.75. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.
Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.61. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.
On April 25, 2023, exactly four years after he announced his 2020 presidential campaign, President Joe Biden (D) announced his campaign for re-election in 2024. Biden’s entry brings the tally of noteworthy presidential candidates to three Democrats, five Republicans, and one Republican with an exploratory committee.
Below is a summary of each candidate’s campaign activity from April 21 to April 28.
In addition to announcing his campaign, Biden announced his campaign leadership. Senior White House Advisor Julie Chavez Rodriguez will serve as campaign manager. Quentin Fulks, who worked on Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-Ga.) 2022 re-election campaign, will be deputy campaign manager. Co-chairs for the campaign include Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), former DreamWorks CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D), Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), and Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.).
Marianne Williamson (D) held an event in New York City on April 22 and campaigned in Michigan on April 24. She also issued a statement responding to Biden’s re-election campaign on April 25.
Nikki Haley (R) delivered a policy speech outlining her position on abortion. From April 26 to April 28, she campaigned in New Hampshire.
Asa Hutchinson (R) held a campaign launch event on April 26 in Bentonville, Ark. He also spoke at an event hosted by the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition on April 22.
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) spoke at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition event on April 22 and continued campaigning in the state through April 24. He also issued a statement on Biden’s re-election campaign on April 24 and began a four-day campaign tour in South Carolina.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), still exploring a possible presidential campaign, also spoke at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition event on April 22 and issued a statement responding to Biden’s re-election campaign on April 25.
Donald Trump (R) held a campaign event in New Hampshire on April 27. He campaigned in Florida on April 21 and released an ad criticizing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) on April 24. Trump also issued a statement on Biden’s re-election campaign on April 24.
Ballotpedia did not identify any campaign activity from former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R).
At this point in the 2020 cycle, 23 noteworthy candidates were running for president. Twenty-one were seeking the Democratic nomination, and two (Trump and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld) were seeking the Republican nomination.
Notable stories at the time included Biden’s presidential campaign announcement on April 25, 2019, Rep. Seth Moulton’s (D-Mass.) campaign announcement on April 22, and three Democratic presidential candidates announcing they supported impeaching then-President Trump.
In the 2016 election, four noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns as of April 28, 2015. There was one Democrat, the eventual 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton (D), and three Republicans, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). At this point in the 2016 cycle, noteworthy stories included profiles of Republican donors and reporting on former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s (R) preparations for a presidential run.
As of April 17, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.40, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.29, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.22. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to officially announce his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.71. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.
Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.49. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.33. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.
Donald Trump’s (R) presidential campaign has raised a cumulative $14 million as of March 31, 2023, most of the candidates currently running in the Republican presidential primary. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) raised $11 million, Nikki Haley (R) raised $5 million, and Corey Stapleton (R) raised $7,717.
The chart below shows total receipts, contributions, and disbursements for each candidate’s principal campaign committee. It only includes candidates who announced their campaigns before March 31, and does not include candidate-affiliated PACs.
In reports to the FEC, political campaigns must distinguish between receipts and contributions. All contributions are receipts, but not all receipts are contributions. Receipts is a broad term referring to all money that goes into a campaign account. While contributions from individuals often make up the majority of a campaign’s contributions, money can also come from other sources such as loans taken out by the campaign, dividends or interest on loans or investments made by the campaign, transfers of money from other political committees, and offsets to a campaign’s expenditures in the form of rebates or refunds.
Contributions from individuals make up a majority of Haley’s (64%) and Stapleton’s (100%) receipts. A majority of Trump’s receipts come from transfers from other political action committees (97%), and a majority of Ramaswamy’s receipts come from loans from the candidate (90%).
The following chart shows fundraising for major presidential campaigns broken out into contributions, transfers from other political committees, loans, offsets to expenditures, and miscellaneous receipts.
As of April 10, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.40, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.29, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.24. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to officially announce his presidential campaign.
Biden leads the Democratic presidential primary market at $0.70. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.12.
Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.48. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.34. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.
As of April 3, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.41, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.27, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.26. Biden has held the lead in this market since January 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.69. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.10.
Trump holds the lead in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.41. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. DeSantis follows at $0.37. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. Former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) is at $0.07, while former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (R), who declared his candidacy over the weekend, is not included in PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading. The platform was initially set to shut down on Feb. 15, but the CFTC action is currently under injunction as a court considers PredictIt’s appeal to the decision.
As of April 3, 2024, six noteworthy candidates are running in the 2024 presidential election, including one Democrat and five Republicans.
Below is a summary of each candidate’s campaign activity from March 27 to April 3.
Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (R) announced his campaign. In an April 2 interview on ABC’s “This Week,” he said, “I am going to be running. And the reason, as I’ve traveled the country for six months, I hear people talk about the leadership of our country, and I’m convinced that people want leaders that appeal to the best of America, and not simply appeal to our worst instincts.”
Marianne Williamson (D) campaigned across South Carolina from March 27 to March 29. She spoke at a drag show and story hour in Johnson City, Tennessee, on March 31.
Nikki Haley (R) campaigned in New Hampshire on March 27 and March 28. She wrote an op-ed for the National Review on March 29 titled “Ending the Fentanyl Crisis Starts by Securing the Border.” On April 3, she visited the United States-Mexico border.
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) published an op-ed in the New York Post on March 27 titled “The USA is experiencing a crisis of faith — in itself” and aired his first television ad in New Hampshire on March 29. He spoke at the National Review Institute’s Ideas Summit on March 31.
Donald Trump (R) hired Trevor Naglieri, the national field director for Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) 2016 presidential campaign, as the Trump campaign’s New Hampshire state director, according to reporting from Politico on March 28. On March 30, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) announced a grand jury had voted to indict Trump on criminal charges. Trump issued a statement in response, saying in part, “This is Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history.”
Ballotpedia did not identify any campaign activity this past week from Corey Stapleton (R).
At this point in the 2020 cycle, 18 noteworthy candidates were running for president. Seventeen were seeking the Democratic nomination, and one (Trump) was seeking the Republican nomination.
Notable stories at the time included the Democratic National Committee announcing on March 28, 2019, that the first Democratic primary debates would be held in Miami, Florida, on June 26 and 27. The DNC also announced that the second set of Democratic primary debates would be held in Detroit, Michigan, on July 30-31. This cycle, the DNC has not yet announced whether it will hold primary debates. The Republican National Committee has announced it plans to hold its first primary debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in August 2023.
In the 2016 election cycle, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was the only noteworthy candidate who had announced his campaign as of April 3, 2015. At this point in the 2016 cycle, media outlets were reporting about possible presidential candidates. FiveThirtyEight profiled several Democratic candidates who might have run if Hillary Clinton (D) did not enter the race, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina said there was a “higher than 90 percent” chance that she would run for president. Fiorina later entered the race and joined Ted Cruz’s campaign as a vice presidential candidate.
