Tagcompetitiveness

Primary watch: number of contested state legislative primaries is up 23% compared to 2020

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections, State
August 5, 2022 at 5:38 PM

There are 23% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 53% more Republican primaries and 8% more top-two/four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 10%.

These figures include elections in 39 states that account for 5,011 of 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year (81%).

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than available nominations, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

Since our last update on Aug. 1, we have added post-filing deadline data from Florida and Vermont. Overall, 11 states in this analysis have Democratic trifectas, 20 have Republican trifectas, and eight have divided governments.

Of the 39 states in this analysis, 36 are holding partisan primaries. Three states—California, Nebraska, and Washington—use top-two primaries.

The number of Democratic primaries has increased in 11 states, decreased in 21, and remains the same in three. The number of Republican primaries has increased in 31 states, decreased in four, and is unchanged in one. The table below shows partisan statistics for the three states with the largest increases and decreases so far.

In addition to a state’s political makeup and party activity, redistricting is another reason for an increase in primary competitiveness.

After redistricting, some states—like Arkansas—hold elections for every district, while in other years, fewer districts are up each cycle. This creates more opportunities for primaries to occur. Or, like in West Virginia, redistricting creates new districts and, by extension, more primary opportunities. Currently, the total number of possible primaries affected by these changes is up 3.0% compared to 2020.

For states like New Mexico and South Carolina, where only one chamber is up for election every two years, only those chambers holding elections in 2022 that also held elections in 2020 are included.

Ballotpedia will continue to update these figures as information becomes available. In addition to this analysis, Ballotpedia collects competitiveness statistics at all levels of government, available here. This data is calculated following candidate filing deadlines and readjusted at the time of the primary to account for any changes to candidate lists.



Newcomers will represent at least 32% of Vermont’s state legislative seats next year

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections, State
August 5, 2022 at 11:59 AM

Fifty-seven state legislative seats up for election in Vermont this year are open, meaning no incumbents filed to run. This represents 32% of the state’s legislature, a marked increase compared to recent election cycles.

Since no incumbents are present, newcomers are guaranteed to win all open seats.

Vermont restructured its House and Senate during the state’s redistricting process. Previously, the state had 117 state legislative districts containing 180 seats. After redistricting, there are 125 districts, still containing 180 seats.

While the number of open seats increased this year, other competitiveness metrics—like the number of contested primaries—decreased compared to the 2020 election cycle.

Across all districts, there are 24 contested primaries, representing 10% of all possible primaries.

A contested primary is one where there are more candidates running than nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

There are 17 Democratic primaries, a 23% decrease from 2020. Republicans are holding seven contested primaries, the same number as in 2020.

Overall, 276 major party candidates filed to run for the state’s 150 House and 30 Senate seats this year: 174 Democrats and 102 Republicans.

Vermont has had a divided government since Republicans won the governorship in 2016. Democrats hold a 91-46 majority in the House, with 12 other seats held by minor party or independent officeholders and one vacancy. The party holds a 21-7 majority in the Senate, with two seats held by minor party officeholders.

Vermont’s state legislative primaries are scheduled for Aug. 9, the 12th statewide primary date of the 2022 state legislative election cycle.

Additional reading:

Vermont House of Representatives elections, 2022

Vermont State Senate elections, 2022



Minnesota sees fewer U.S. House candidates this year than in 2020 and 2018

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In 2022 elections
August 2, 2022 at 3:22 PM

The filing deadline for candidates running for Congress in Minnesota was May 31, 2022. Thirty-two candidates are running for Minnesota’s eight U.S. House districts, including 18 Democrats and 14 Republicans. That’s four candidates per district, less than the 4.63 candidates per district in 2020 and the 4.75 in 2018.

Here are some other highlights from this year’s filings:

  • This is the first election to take place under new district lines following the 2020 census. Minnesota was apportioned eight districts, the same number it was apportioned after the 2010 census.
  • The 32 candidates running this year are five fewer than the 37 candidates who ran in 2020 and six fewer than the 38 who ran in 2018. Thirty candidates ran in 2016, 19 in 2014, and 28 in 2012. 
  • One district—the 1st—is open. That’s one more than in 2020 when there were no open seats and two fewer than in 2018 when there were three open seats. 
  • Former Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R)—the incumbent in the 1st District—passed away while in office on February 17, 2022. A special election to fill the seat is scheduled for August 9, 2022. 
  • Eight candidates—three Republicans and five Democrats, including incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar (D)—are running in the 5th district, the most candidates running for a seat this year.
  • There are nine contested primaries this year, five Democratic and four Republican. That number is down from 10 contested primaries in 2020 and 2018.
  • Four incumbents—two Democrats and two Republicans—are not facing any primary challengers.
  • Democratic and Republican candidates filed to run in all eight districts, so no seats are guaranteed to either party this year. 

Minnesota and three other states—Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin—are holding primary elections on August 9, 2022. In Minnesota, the winner of a primary election is the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes cast for that office, even if he or she does not win an outright majority.

Additional reading:

List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2022



Tennessee has its fewest contested state legislative primaries in five election cycles

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections
August 2, 2022 at 3:15 PM

Tennessee has 36 contested state legislative primaries this year, 16% of the total number of possible primaries, and a 5% decrease from 2020.

This is the fewest contested state legislative primaries in Tennessee over the past five election cycles.

A primary is contested when more candidates file to run than there are nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

Of the 36 contested primaries, 11 are for Democrats and 25 are for Republicans. For Democrats, this is down from 14 in 2020, a 21% decrease. For Republicans, the number increased 4% from 24 in 2020.

Fifteen contested primaries feature an incumbent, representing 15% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This is the lowest rate of incumbents in contested primaries over the past five election cycles in the state.

Five of the incumbents in contested primaries are Democrats, and 10 are Republicans.

Overall, 214 major party candidates—79 Democrats and 135 Republicans—filed to run. All 99 House districts and 17 of the state’s 33 Senate districts are holding elections.

Seventeen of those districts are open, meaning no incumbents filed to run. This guarantees at least 15% of the districts holding elections will be represented by newcomers next year.

Tennessee has had a Republican trifecta since 2010 when the party won control of the governorship. Republicans currently hold a 72-24 majority in the House, which has one vacant district, and a 27-6 majority in the Senate.

Tennessee’s state legislative primaries are scheduled for Aug. 9, the 11th statewide primary date of the 2022 state legislative election cycle.

Additional reading:

Tennessee House of Representatives elections, 2022

Tennessee State Senate elections, 2022



Newcomers will represent at least 31% of Minnesota’s state legislative districts next year

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections
August 2, 2022 at 3:10 PM

Sixty-three state legislative districts up for election in Minnesota this year are open, meaning no incumbents filed to run. This represents 31% of the state’s legislature, a marked increase compared to recent election cycles.

Since no incumbents are present, all open districts are guaranteed to be won by newcomers.

Fifty-nine of these districts are open because incumbents did not file for re-election. Minnesota does not have term limits for state legislators, meaning all 59 incumbents chose to either retire or run for some other office.

The remaining four open districts arose from incumbent v. incumbent contests due to redistricting. In these four contests, incumbents from one district were drawn into another district, leaving their old districts open.

Across all districts, there are 44 contested primaries, representing 11% of all possible primaries, an increase compared to recent election cycles.

A contested primary is one where there are more candidates running than nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

There are 18 Democratic primaries, a 28% decrease from 2020. Republicans are holding 26 contested primaries, a 73% increase.

Overall, 425 major party candidates filed to run this year: 213 Democrats and 212 Republicans.

All 134 House districts and 67 Senate districts are up for election. House elections take place every two years whereas Senate elections take place on a 2-4-4 cycle, in which senators serve one two-year term and two four-year terms each decade. Under this cycle, after 2022, no Senate districts will be up for election until 2026.

Minnesota is one of two states holding elections this year where no single party controls both legislative chambers. Democrats currently hold a 69-64-1 majority in the House and Republicans hold a 34-31-2 majority in the Senate.

Minnesota’s state legislative primaries are scheduled for Aug. 9, the 12th statewide primary date of the 2022 state legislative election cycle.

Additional reading:

Minnesota House of Representatives elections, 2022

Minnesota State Senate elections, 2022



Newcomers will represent 16% of Connecticut’s state legislative districts next year

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections
August 2, 2022 at 3:04 PM

Thirty state legislative districts up for election in Connecticut this year are open, meaning no incumbents filed to run. This represents 16% of the state’s legislature, an increase compared to recent election cycles.

Since no incumbents are present, all open districts are guaranteed to be won by newcomers.

Across all districts, there are nine contested primaries, representing 2% of all possible primaries.

Connecticut uses a convention-primary system, where candidates participate in a party nominating convention before the primary election. If more than one candidate receives over 15% of the delegate vote, the race proceeds to a contested primary. Candidates can also qualify for a primary ballot by gathering signatures. Learn more about Connecticut’s candidacy process here.

Either of these pathways can produce a contested primary, which is one where there are more candidates running than nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

There are seven Democratic primaries this year, a 30% decrease from 10 in 2020. Republicans are holding two contested primaries, a 50% decrease.

Overall, 341 major party candidates filed to run this year: 181 Democrats and 160 Republicans.

All 151 House districts and 36 Senate districts are up for election.

Connecticut has had a Democratic trifecta since the party won control of the governorship in 2010. Democrats hold a 97-54 majority in the House and a 23-13 majority in the Senate.

Connecticut’s state legislative primaries are scheduled for Aug. 9, the 12th statewide primary date of the 2022 state legislative election cycle.

Additional reading:

Connecticut House of Representatives elections, 2022

Connecticut State Senate elections, 2022



Primary watch: number of contested state legislative primaries is up 25% compared to 2020

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections
July 25, 2022 at 2:39 PM

There are 25% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 55% more Republican primaries and 8% more top-two/four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 8%.

These figures include elections in 36 states that account for 4,538 of the 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year (74%).

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than available nominations, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

Since our last update on July 18, we have added post-filing deadline data from Connecticut and Delaware. Overall, 11 states in this analysis have Democratic trifectas, 19 have Republican trifectas, and six have divided governments.

Of the 36 states in this analysis, 33 are holding partisan primaries. Three states—California, Nebraska, and Washington—use top-two primaries.

The number of Democratic primaries has increased in 11 states, decreased in 18, and remains the same in three. The number of Republican primaries has increased in 29 states and decreased in four. The table below shows partisan statistics for the three states with the largest increases and decreases so far.

In addition to a state’s political makeup and party activity, redistricting is another reason for an increase in primary competitiveness.

After redistricting, some states—like Arkansas—hold elections for every district, while in other years, fewer districts are up each cycle. This creates more opportunities for primaries to occur. Or, like in West Virginia, redistricting creates new districts and, by extension, more primary opportunities. Currently, the total number of possible primaries affected by these changes is up 1.4% compared to 2020.

For states like New Mexico and South Carolina, where only one chamber is up for election every two years, only those chambers holding elections in 2022 that also held elections in 2020 are included.

Ballotpedia will continue to update these figures as information becomes available. In addition to this analysis, Ballotpedia collects competitiveness statistics at all levels of government, available here. This data is calculated following candidate filing deadlines and readjusted at the time of the primary to account for any changes to candidate lists.



Primary watch: number of contested state legislative primaries is up 26% compared to 2020

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections
July 18, 2022 at 10:52 AM

There are 26% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 56% more Republican primaries and 8% more top-two/four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 8%.

These figures include elections in 34 states that account for 4,289 of 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year (70%).

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than available nominations, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

Since our last update on July 5, we have added post-filing deadline data from Tennessee and Washington. Overall, nine states in this analysis have Democratic trifectas, 19 have Republican trifectas, and six have divided governments.

Of the 34 states in this analysis, 31 are holding partisan primaries. Three states—California, Nebraska, and Washington—use top-two primaries.

The number of Democratic primaries has increased in 11 states, decreased in 16, and remains the same in three. The number of Republican primaries has increased in 28 states and decreased in three. The table below shows partisan statistics for the three states with the largest increases and decreases so far.

In addition to a state’s political makeup and party activity, redistricting is another reason for an increase in primary competitiveness.

After redistricting, some states—like Arkansas—hold elections for every district, while in other years, fewer districts are up each cycle. This creates more opportunities for primaries to occur. Or, like in West Virginia, redistricting creates new districts and, by extension, more primary opportunities. Currently, the total number of possible primaries affected by these changes is up 1.3% compared to 2020.

For states like New Mexico and South Carolina, where only one chamber is up for election every two years, only those chambers holding elections in 2022 that also held elections in 2020 are included.

Ballotpedia will continue to update these figures as information becomes available. In addition to this analysis, Ballotpedia collects competitiveness statistics at all levels of government, available here. This data is calculated following candidate filing deadlines and readjusted at the time of the primary to account for any changes to candidate lists.



A look at contested state legislative primaries in Wyoming

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections
July 13, 2022 at 2:33 PM

Wyoming has 48 contested state legislative primaries this year, 31% of the total number of possible primaries, and a 4% increase from 2020.

A primary is contested when more candidates file to run than there are nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

Of the 48 contested primaries, there are two for Democrats and 46 for Republicans. For Democrats, this is down from six in 2020, a 67% decrease. For Republicans, the number increased 15% from 40 in 2020.

Twenty-eight primaries feature an incumbent, representing 49% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This is down from 2020, when 31, or 52% of incumbents, faced contested primaries.

All 28 incumbents in contested primaries this year are Republicans. No Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election face a contested primary.

Overall, 168 major party candidates—27 Democrats and 141 Republicans—filed to run. All 62 House districts and 16 of the state’s 31 Senate districts are holding elections. This includes two new House districts and one new Senate district created following redistricting.

Twenty-one of those districts are open, meaning no incumbents filed. This guarantees that at least 23% of the legislature will be represented by newcomers next year.

Wyoming has had a Republican trifecta since 2010 when the party gained control of the governorship. Republicans have controlled both legislative chambers since 1977 and currently hold a 28-2 majority in the Senate and a 51-7 majority in the House with two districts represented by third-party or independent incumbents.

Wyoming’s state legislative primaries are scheduled for August 16, the 14th statewide primary date of the 2022 state legislative election cycle.

Additional reading:

Wyoming State Senate elections

Wyoming House of Representatives elections, 2022



State legislative primaries in Michigan increase compared to recent election cycles

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections
July 13, 2022 at 2:26 PM

Michigan has 139 contested state legislative primaries this year, 47% of the total number of possible primaries, the highest rate of contested primaries in the state over the past five election cycles.

A primary is contested when more candidates file to run than there are nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

The Michigan House holds elections every two years. The Senate holds elections every four years during midterm election cycles.

Of the 139 contested primaries, 58 are for Democrats, and 81 are for Republicans. For Democrats, this is down from 67 in 2018—the last time both chambers held elections—marking a 13% decrease. For Republicans, the number increased 37% from 59 in 2018.

Forty-three primaries feature an incumbent: 18 Democrats and 25 Republicans. This represents 52% of all incumbents who filed for re-election, another high of the past five election cycles.

Overall, 548 major party candidates—256 Democrats and 292 Republicans—filed to run for the state’s 110 House and 38 Senate districts. 

Sixty-seven of those districts are open, guaranteeing that at least 45% of the legislature will be represented by newcomers next year.

Michigan has had a divided government since the election of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in 2018. Republicans currently hold a 22-16 majority in the Senate and a 56-53 majority in the House with one vacant district.

Michigan’s state legislative primaries are scheduled for August 2, the 11th statewide primary date of the 2022 state legislative election cycle.

Additional reading:

Michigan State Senate elections, 2022

Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2022